Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 11 - June 18

The US dollar advanced against its major peers amid the testimony from Comey. The focus now shifts to the highly anticipated Fed decision. We also have three additional rate decisions as well as other figures.

• US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. Core PPI rose by 0.4% and is expected to decelerate to 0.2% in May.
• UK jobs report, Wednesday, 8:30. Wages are predicted to remain unchanged at 2.4%.
• US CPI: Wednesday, 12:30. For the month of May, the headline number is expected to rise by 0.3% and Core CPI by 0.2%.
• US retail sales: Wednesday, 12:30. Retail sales advanced by 0.4% in April and 0.1% is expected now. Core sales carry expectations for 0.2% after 0.3% beforehand.
• US Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30. This is one of the Fed’s more important meetings. In addition to the regular statement, the central bank also publishes updated forecasts for growth, employment and inflation.
• NZ GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. After a relatively slow growth rate of 0.4% in Q4 2016, expectations stand at 0.7% for Q1 2017.
• Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. The forecast for May stands at a more modest 10.3K. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 5.7%.
• Swiss rate decision: Thursday, 7:30. No change is expected now, despite a weaker exchange rate.
• UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00.
• Japanese rate decision: Friday early morning, no specific hour.
• US housing data: Friday, 12:30. Housing starts disappointed in April with a fall to 1.17 million and a small increase is likely for May.
• US consumer sentiment: Friday, 14:00. In theory, more confident consumers buy more, but the correlation with actual retail sales is not always there.

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EUR/USD was on the back foot after Draghi managed to drag the euro down and as the greenback recovered. The week ahead consists of French parliamentary elections, an important German survey, the Eurogroup meetings and more.

1. French Parliamentary elections: Sunday, results due before markets open.
2. German WPI: Tuesday, 6:00. A slower increase of 0.2% is projected now.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00.
4. German CPI (final): Wednesday, 6:00.
5. Employment change: Wednesday, 9:00. This quarterly figure comes a bit late, closer to the end of the following quarter.
6. Industrial output: Wednesday, 9:00.
7. French CPI (final): Thursday, 6:45.
8. Trade balance: Thursday, 9:00. We now get the data for April which is projected to show 22.4 billion.
9. Eurogroup meetings: From Thursday afternoon and sometimes late into the night. The group of euro-zone finance ministers convenes and Greece tops the agenda.
10. CPI (final): Friday, 9:00. The preliminary data for the Euro-zone was disappointing: a drop of headline inflation to 1.4% and core inflation fell to 0.9% after hitting the highest level since 2013 back in April. The numbers will probably be confirmed now.

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