Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 04 - June 11

The US dollar was on the back foot throughout most of the week as data remained mixed and speculation about the Fed decision mounts. A rate decision in Australia, the ECB’s critical decision and the UK elections stand out in the first full week of June. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. A score of 57.3 is predicted now.
2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia last changed interest rates in August but has adopted a neutral stance since then. The Cash Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.50% for another month and the Aussie will move on the tone of the statement. On one hand, the Australian economy is doing fine, with solid jobs growth and consumption. However, worries about China weigh on the outlook. In the past, the RBA took advantage of downfalls in the exchange rate to push the currency even lower. Will they hit the A$ when it’s down once again?
3. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. If the Federal Reserve needs yet another jobs report in order to make its decision, the number of job openings serves as a hint. Despite being a laggard (the data is for April against May for the NFP), the publication still moves the needle as the Fed eyes it. In March, job opening stood at 5.74 million annualized. A small slide to 5.65 million is on the cards.
4. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30. A growth rate of 0.3% is projected.
5. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. The weekly measure of oil inventories has an immediate impact on oil prices but also reflects on the global economy. Lower supply and marginally higher demand pushed inventories lower, helping oil prices stabilize.
6. UK elections: Thursday-Friday. The full results should be clear before European markets open at 7:00 GMT.
7. ECB rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, Draghi’s press conference at 12:30.
8. Canadian jobs report: Friday, 12:30.

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EUR/USD made an attempt to move higher but never went too far. The highlight of the upcoming week is the ECB decision. Will Draghi upgrade the assessment? Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. Services PMIs: Tuesday: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German release at 7:55 and the final euro-zone number is published at 8:00.
2. Retail PMI: Tuesday, 8:10.
3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Tuesday, 8:30. This 2800-strong survey beat expectations in recent months and was on the march to the upside. After hitting a score of 27.4 in May, the figure for June could be a bit higher.
4. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 9:00. We now get the April data.
5. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 6:00. Volatility is not uncommon in this measure.
6. GDP: Wednesday, 9:00. According to the previous estimates, the euro-zone economy grew by 0.5% in Q1 2017. Since that read, we had an upgrade of GDP from France. Will the euro-zone GDP be upgraded as well?
7. German Industrial Production: Thursday, 6:00.
8. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:45. France’s trade deficit had already narrowed last year, but it had widened once again, reaching 5.4 billion in March.
9. ECB rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, Draghi’s press conference at 12:30. Will the ECB stop seeing risks as tilted to the downside?
10. German CPI (final): Friday, 6:00.The figure will likely be confirmed.
11. German Trade Balance: Friday, 6:00. This surplus reached 19.6 billion euros in March.
12. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45.

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