Weekly Outlook: 2017, May 14 - May 21

The second week of May saw the dollar gaining ground against many currencies despite a political controversy. A mix of events awaits us now: GDP from Japan, jobs from Australia, and housing data from the US.

1. Chinese Industrial Production: Monday, 2:00. After a surprising rise of 7.6% last time, the figure for April could be weaker: 7% is expected.
2. Euro-zone GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. No change is expected.
3. US housing data: Tuesday, 12:30. Building permits are projected to remain at 1.27 million and housing starts to rise to 1.27 million.
4. UK jobs report: Wednesday, 8:30. Wages are predicted to advance to 2.4% y/y and the unemployment rate is likely to stay at 4.7%.
5. Oil inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
6. Japanese GDP: Wednesday, 23:50. The economy of the third-largest global economy probably expanded also in early 2017: +0.4% is forecast.
7. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. A modest gain of 5.2K is estimated and the unmeployment rate will likely stay at 5.9%.
8. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. A small rise from 236K to 240K is expected.

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EUR/USD took Macron’s victory with a stride, having priced in the election from the outset. GDP and inflation data stand out in the third week of May.

1. French CPI (final): Tuesday, 6:45. The final read will likely confirm it.
2. Italian GDP: Tuesday, 8:00. After 0.2% in Q4 2016, the exact same rate is predicted now.
3. GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. A repeat is predicted.
4. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Another upbeat number could follow: 22.3 is predicted. The all-European figure is also predicted to advance: from 26.3 to 29.1 points.
5. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 9:00. A similar figure is on the cards now: 18.8 billion.
6. CPI (final): Wednesday, 9:00. The preliminary inflation estimates showed a pickup in inflation in April: 1.9% on the headline and a surprisingly strong jump in core inflation at 1.2%. The final read should confirm these early assessments.
7. German PPI: Friday, 6:00. April could see PPI picking up: +0.2%.
8. Current Account: Friday, 8:00. It is now forecast to dip to 32.3 billion.
9. Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00. A score of -4 was seen in April and a small rise to -3 is forecast now.

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