Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 12 - March 19

The US dollar ended the week on the back foot despite the upcoming rate hike. Apart from the Fed decision, we have rate decisions also in the UK and Japan, US consumer confidence and housing data, and lots more. These are the main events on forex calendar for this week.

1. US Producer Prices: Tuesday, 12:30. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.1% this time.
2. UK jobs report: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of new unemployed in the UK is expected to rise by 3,200 in February.
3. US Inflation data: Wednesday, 13:30. US Consumer prices are estimated to remain unchanged while core inflation is expected to gain 0.2% in February.
4. US Retail sales: Wednesday, 13:30. Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.2% and core sales are predicted to rise 0.1%.
5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
6. US FOMC Economic Projections and rate decision: Wednesday, 18:00. The FOMC sees three rate hikes in 2017, instead of the two from September’s projections. But beyond 2017, the assessments are the same as in September. Regarding growth projections, the Fed sees a 2% rise, falling to 1.8% in the longer run. The unemployment rate is estimated to reach 4.5% between 2017 and 2019 before rising to 4.8 percent in the longer term.
7. New Zealand GDP data: Wednesday, 21:45. Economists expect a growth rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016.
8. Japan rate decision: Thursday.
9. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The bank predicts the economy will grow 2% this year and the unemployment would be much lower than previously projected. Growth has remained resilient since the Brexit vote and policymakers expect growth to continue in the coming months.
10. US Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. The number of building permits is expected to reach1.26 million this time.
11. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. Manufacturing activity in the Philly area is expected to reach 30.2 in March.
12. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise to 245,000.
13. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Consumer moral is expected to increase to 97.1 this time.

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EUR/USD managed to edge up as the ECB expressed some cautious optimism. Another appearance by Draghi as well as inflation and trade figures stand out in the upcoming week.

1. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 13:30. The President of the ECB has another opportunity to move the euro.
2. German CPI (final): Tuesday, 7:00.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. The all-European figure stood at 17.1 points last time and is expected to hit 19.3 now.
4. Industrial output: Tuesday, 10:00.
5. French CPI (final): Wednesday, 7:45. According to the flash read for February, prices increased by 0.1% in the eurozone’s second-largest economy. The figure will probably be confirmed.
6. Employment Change: Wednesday, 10:00.
7. CPI (final): Thursday, 10:00.
8. Trade Balance: Friday, 10:00. The euro-zone enjoys a wide trade surplus, driven by Germany’s export machine. After a positive 24.5 billion in December, a narrower surplus is on the cards now: 22.3 billion.

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