US Presidential Election, Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Rate decision in New Zealand. These are the main highlights of this week.

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  1. US Presidential Election: Tuesday. US Presidential election attracts worldwide attention offering many surprises and uncertainties. The question is how the election would impact the economy and the markets. History suggests that the markets respond better to predictable outcomes than to uncertainties. The fact that Obama isn’t running may create a void badly affecting financial markets. Investors are not familiar with the candidates’ ability to “run the show”. Furthermore the party affiliation does not offer easy clues about which candidates might help or hurt investments. However, markets are expected to respond well to proposals from a front-runner to reduce U.S. corporate tax rates, which at the current 39% are the highest in the developed world. Moreover, analysts may look forward to a possible haven in 2017, after a new president takes over.
  2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. Analysts do not expect imports will remain strong in the coming weeks.
  3. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00.
  4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of new claims are expected to register a 267,000 gain.
  5. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. U.S. consumer confidence is expected to rise to 87.4 this time.
  6. Stephen Poloz speaks: Friday 15:00. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will speak in Santiago. In a recent talk, Poloz said risks from household debt and the housing market will be better addressed by macroprudential policies than by adjusting interest rates.


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