Weekly Outlook: 2016, February 28 - March 06

Next Week's February NFP by BofA Merrill

• "In the February employment report, we anticipate a pick-up in the pace of nonfarm payroll growth to 175,000, with government payrolls accounting for 5,000."
• "We look for the unemployment to hold steady at 4.9%. It will be interesting to see if the labor force participation rate continues to increase, following the uptrend over the prior four months. If so, this could reflect some discouraged workers slowly coming back into the labor market. Average hourly earnings should post a modest 0.1% increase, but this follows a 0.5% pop in January. We see a risk of a weaker print on wages as a payback from the very strong gain in January. Our forecast would leave the yoy rate unchanged at 2.5%. We expect the average workweek to stay at 34.6."

EURUSD M5: 133 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event:

the source

Forex Weekly Outlook Feb 29-Mar 4

Rate decision in Australia, GDP data from Canada and Australia, Manufacturing PMI and Trade balance in the US as well as important employment data, including the monthly US jobs report. These are the highlights for this week.

1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday 3:30. Economists still believe the RBA will cut rates in the coming months.
2. Canadian GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. Canadian GDP is expected to reach 0.1% in December.
3. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 15:00. Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 48.5 this time.
4. Australian GDP data: Wednesday, 0:30. Australia is expected to grow 0.5% in the last quarter.
5. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. Economists expect ADP payrolls to increase by 185,000.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of new claims for this week is estimated to rise by 271,000.
7. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 15:00. Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to reach 49.8 this time.
8. US Trade Balance: Friday, 13:30. Trade deficit is expected to increase further to 43.5 billion.
9. US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. US employment market is expected to add 195,000 in February and the unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.9%.

the source

Monthly price is on breakdown with possible bearish reversal: the price is breaking Ichimoku cloud on open monthly bar together with descending triangle pattern for the breakdown to be continuing with the possible reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.

The price is ranging within the following key support/resistance lines:

• 195.86 key resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the the bullish area of the chart, and
• 145.77 key support level as the Senkou Span line located in the beginning of the primary bearish area.

Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to below for the good breakdown to be started, and Absolute Strange indicator is estimating the trend to be bearish in the near future.
If monthly price will break 145.77 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish condition will be started.
If monthly price will break 195.86 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close MN1 price to break 195.86 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch MN1 price to break 145.77 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: correction to bearish reversal

Resistance	Support
195.86	145.77
N/A	N/A

SUMMARY : correction to bearish reversal
TREND : correction