Weekly Outlook: 2015, December 27 - January 03

EUR/USD Forecast Dec. 28 – Jan. 1

EUR/USD gained some ground ahead of the Christmas holiday and edged closer to 1.10. The last week of the year features two figures. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Spain’s elections resulted in a hung parliament and this stirred some worries, worries that support the euro on safe haven flows. However, some of the moves are related to end-of-year action. In the US, we learned that final GDP is 2% in Q3, within expectations. Housing disappointed while durable goods orders were OK.

1. Spanish Flash CPI: Wednesday, 8:00. The euro-zone’s fourth largest economy has seen significant growth and also significant inflation. Prices fell 0.3% in November y/y and now we gets preliminary data for December. A rise of 0.1% is expected.
2. Monetary data: Wednesday, 9:00. The ECB’s loose monetary policy is making its way into the system via money supply and more private loans. The former has risen 5.3% y/y and 5.2% is now on the cards. The latter saw 1.2% and 1.3% is on the cards now.

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GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 28 – Jan. 1

GBP/USD showed some downward movement but ended the week unchanged, closing at 1.4925. The final week of 2015 has just two events on the schedule. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the US, Final GDP for the third quarter posted a gain of 2%, very close to the estimate. Housing numbers disappointed, and durable goods were weak, but within expectations.

1. Nationwide HPI: Wednesday, 7:00. This housing inflation indicator provides a snapshot of the health of the activity of the UK housing sector. The index slipped to 0.1% to November, well off the estimate of 0.5%. The markets are expecting a turnaround in December, with an estimate of 0.4%.
2. Housing Equity Withdrawal: Thursday, 9:30. New home-secured loans decreased in the second quarter, dropping by GBP 10.9 billion, better than the estimate of GBP 12.5 billion. The markets are expecting a decrease of GBP 10.5 billion in Q3.

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EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - International Trade in Goods and 38 pips price movement

2015-12-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - International Trade in Goods]

• past data is -58.4B
• forecast data is -60.7B
• actual data is -60.5B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - International Trade in Goods] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
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EURUSD M5: 38 pips price movement by USD - International Trade in Goods news event :