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Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11

This is a discussion on Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11 within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Hackers attack forex broker FXCM FXCM Inc, an online foreign exchange broker, said its systems were hacked and a "small ...

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    Senior Member 1Finance's Avatar
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    Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11

    Hackers attack forex broker FXCM

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11-1.jpg

    FXCM Inc, an online foreign exchange broker, said its systems were hacked and a "small number" of unauthorized wire transfers were made from customer accounts, sending the company's shares down 25 percent to a record low.

    All funds have been returned to the accounts that were compromised, the company said on Thursday.

    FXCM said it received an email from a hacker claiming to have illegal access to customer information and that it had notified the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

    An FBI spokeswoman said the bureau was "aware of the incident and is investigating."

    FXCM said it was working with a cybersecurity firm to determine the scale of the incident and identify affected customers.

    The company did not say when it was hacked or give any further details on the incident. FXCM did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    FXCM is the latest U.S. corporation to become a victim of a cybersecurity attack, adding to a list that includes Target Corp, Apple Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

    Accusations against China have increased amid growing concerns about national security. Last week, U.S. President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping signed a pact to fight cyber warfare.

    FXCM's shares were down 4.6 percent, recouping some losses after hitting a record low of $6.51. The stock had fallen about 95 percent this year mainly due to losses stemming from the Swiss National Bank's removal of the cap on the Swiss franc in January.

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    Forex Weekly Outlook October 5-9

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11-eurusd-w1-metaquotes-software-corp.png

    US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, Mario Draghi’s speech, rate decision in Japan, Australia and the UK, US Unemployment Claims, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Canadian employment data and Stephen Poloz’ speech are the main events on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the market movers for this week.

    Last week U.S. major job report for September was a big disappointment, showing a lukewarm job gain of 142,000 positions, far below the 201,000 reading forecasted by analysts. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% due to a further deterioration in the labor force participation rate, plunging to 62.4%, the worse rate since October 1977. Furthermore, wages remained flat, indicating subdued inflationary pressures. The negative report cools expectations for a near-term rate hike.

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    1. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. The U.S. service sector expanded more than expected in August, showing a solid growth rate, but was weaker than July’s reading. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index declined to 59 in August from 60.3 in the prior month. July’s reading was the highest since 2008. The upbeat release indicates solid growth in the US domestic economy. The non-manufacturing purchasing managers index is expected to decline further to 58.0 this time.
    2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate at 2% for the fourth month in a row, after a quarter of a percentage point cut performed in May. Market volatility in China and fears its negative economic effects were the main reason for maintaining rates unchanged. Most analysts expected the RBA to maintain its monetary policy until the end of the year. However, some economists said the RBA could cut the cash rate for the third time this year in November.
    3. US Trade Balance: Tuesday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit contracted in July to $41.9 billion, its lowest level in five months, indicating the US economy continues to strengthen, despite a global growth slowdown. Economists expected the trade gap to reach $43.2 billion. Exports increased 0.4% to $188.5 billion, the first increase since April. Imports of consumer goods declined in July. U.S. trade deficit is expected to reach $42.2 billion.
    4. Mario Draghi speaks: Tuesday, 17:00. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt. He may talk about the recent ECB downgrade of the Eurozone’s economic outlook as well as the continuous deterioration in inflation levels. Clues about further QE measures may be enclosed. Market volatility is expected.
    5. Japan rate decision: Wednesday. The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy in September, admitting Japan’s economic growth was held back by the slowdown in emerging economies, but the BOJ believes advanced economies continue to grow at a moderate pace despite the slowdown of emerging economies. Therefore, the general growth trend remains positive. The BOJ will also expand the monetary base at about $667 billion a year to boost inflation.
    6. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold in its September meeting. The Central Bank also lowered its estimate for the UK’s economic growth in the third quarter from 0.7% to 0.6%. Policy makers also claimed that the slowdown in Chinese economy and in emerging economies could badly affect UK’s economic growth. However, despite this, the MPC remained optimistic about the UK economy. A bank is expected to raise rates gradually starting from the first half of 2016.
    7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 277,000 last week, but remained near 15-year lows. Economists expected the number of claims to reach 273,000. The four-week moving average declined 1,000 to 270,750. The total number of people receiving jobless benefits is 2.19 million. The labor market continues to strengthen hand in hand with economic growth. Analysts expect the number of jobless claims to reach 274,000 this week.
    8. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 18:00. Federal Reserve policymakers said in July, they are nearing the central bank’s first interest rate hike in almost a decade but require further improvement in the economy and the labor market. Despite encouraging economic data releases, the FOMC decided to postpone September’s rate hike. The current minute’s data will provide further insight as to the reasons for this dramatic delay.
    9. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canada labor market added an unexpected 12,000 jobs in August, while expected to contract by 4,800. However, the unemployment rate rose to a one-year high of 7% as the participation rate edged up to 65.9% from 65.7%. Overall, the rise in full-time work showed a positive improvement in the Canadian job market, which can offset the rise in the unemployment rate.
    10. Stephen Poloz speaks: Saturday, 18:45. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz is due to speak at the Institute of International Finance, in Lima. In a recent speech, Polozs said he believes Canada will bounce back from oil plunge despite current hardships. Companies may scale back investment and production amid lower prices, but this will boost demand, which eventually will lead to a price increase.

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    Weekly Trading Forecast: How Far Will the Risk Rebound, Dollar Retreat Run?

    US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar At Risk of Sharper Retreat as Rate and Risk Pressure Fade
    The Dollar was within reach of 12-year highs this past week; but when the opportunity was presented to revive the long-term bull climb, fundamentals falterd.

    British Pound Forecast – Sterling Finds Support Ahead of Pivotal BOE Meeting

    One of the few bright spots in the Global Economy that isn’t currently being engulfed by continued Central Bank jockeying (looking at you, Federal Reserve) has been the United Kingdom.

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11-gbpusd-w1-alpari-limited-3.png

    Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Fails to Break Sept. Range Ahead of Fed Minutes, BoJ Meeting

    The range-bound price action in USD/JPY may unravel in the week ahead should the fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy dampen bets for a 2015 Fed rate hike, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to retain a wait-and-see approach at the October 7 interest rate decision.

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11-usdjpy-w1-alpari-limited.png

    Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Torn Between RBA Policy Bets, Risk Appetite Trends

    The Australian Dollar is looking toward a volatile week ahead as prices are torn between the influence of RBA policy considerations and market-wide sentiment trends.

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11-audusd-w1-alpari-limited.png

    Canadian Dollar Forecast – CAD Pushes Higher After Hitting 11yr Low, Still Oil Dependent

    The Canadian Dollar witnessed a strong rise to end the week after a weak start.

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11-usdcad-w1-alpari-limited.png

    Gold Forecast – Gold Sell-Off Approaches Familiar Territory- FOMC to Pave the Way

    Gold put in a peculiar week of price action as four days’ worth of selling were nearly erased by one really strong NFP-fueled rally.

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, October 04 - 11-xauusd-w1-alpari-limited.png

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