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The AUD/USD has been consolidating since reaching 0.9504 high of the year.After a sharp retreat, price held above the 0.9321 level and continued to consolidate sideways. This consolidation structure is turning up the bearish bias in July. It looks like traders are rounding out a price top.

AUD/USD 4H Chart 7/18



Looking at the 4H chart, here are some observations and outlooks:
1) There is a common resistance around 0.9440. It was the ascending triangle resistance on the left side of the*“rounded top”. The rejection showed bears are in charge.
2) After falling from 0.9440, price action has been generally bearish, with lower highs and lower lows.
3) Price this week has fallen*below the 200-, 100-, and 50- simple moving averages.
4) The RSI has tagged 30 in July, but has not returned to 70. This shows slight bearish bias.
5) If price can hold south of 0.94, the pressure is going to be on the 0.9320 neckline of the rounded top.
6) If price can break below 0.9320, the lows and support area in April through May in the*0.92-0.9210 area will be exposed.
7) If price however pushes above 0.94, the bearish bias developed this week will be gone.
8) Above 0.94, we should consider the bullish continuation scenario because when you look at the daily chart, you can see that the bullish trend in 2014, might be slowing down, but has not reversed.
9) The break below 0.9320 could be the first major bearish signal for the short-term, and should shift the bullish outlook to a neutral one.
10) Only a break below 0.92 should open up a bearish outlook outside of the short-term.

AUD/USD Daily Chart 7/18



Traders should consider shorting only after there is a break below 0.9320, then the target could open up to 0.9210. After a break below 0.9320, considering shorting a pull back to 0.9250.

Reward to Risk:

After a breakout and a pullback, we should expect the market to hold below 0.94 if indeed it is turning bearish toward 0.92. Let’s look at the reward to risk for an entry planned at 0.9350. A stop at 0.9415 for example offers a risk at stop-loss of 65 pips. On the reward side, a target of 0.9210 offers a potential reward of 140 pips.

The trade set up described above offers a reward to risk ratio of 2.15 : 1.

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WTI Crude Oil – Likely Setting up New Consolidation Range

By Forexminute - Fan Yang | Commodities News | Jul 18, 2014 6:24PM BST





Oil Prices have fallen since late June. The previous rally was based on anticipation that the Iraq crisis could disturb oil supply, but this has not happened. This week, when WTI Crude price hit 99.00, traders bought it back up. The bullish correction accelerated after the news about a Malaysian passenger airplane shot down in Ukraine, from the skies where there has been recent airstrikes that downed other transport planes. Essentially heightened geopolitical risk globally is keeping oil prices buoyed this week, but I don’t think its enough to give oil prices another bullish leg.

WTI Crude 4H Chart 7/18




- Looking at the 4H Chart, we see that price has retraced back near 104.
- As you can see, price has held below the 200-period SMA in the 4H chart.
- WTI Crude*found a resistance pivot between the 50% retracement and 61.8% retracement of the 107.56-99.02 dip.
- There is a falling trendline that held up.
- The RSI is falling from 70.

These observations point to a market setting up a consolidation range between 99 and 104 for next week. Look for price to gravitate toward the central area of this range around 101.50. If price is around 104.50-105 and teh 4H RSI shows a bearish divergence, watch out for sellers. With price under the trendline form June, oil would be consolidating with bearish bias, or we can say it is in a neutral-bearish mode. This outlook suggests selling on the current rally, with downside risk below the 99.00 low of the week.

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In his speech at The North American Conference in Chicago, Litecoin creator Charlie Lee confidently predicted the death of Dogecoin, citing its downgrading hashrate as one of the major factors in providing the event. However, Lee once again proposed Dogecoin developers to merge with Litecoin in order to ensure their survival.

He also spoke to CryptoCoinsNews.COM in person and elaborated his views on Dogecoin in details. “The Dogecoin development team needs to do something,” he said.

“Most people in the community actually don’t understand the problem. The hashrate is so low that it’s getting dangerous. It’s getting to the point where anyone with a small ASIC farm can attack it.”

Lee considers himself as one of the most concerned well-wishers of Dogecoin. He once offered Dogecoin founders the same choice of merge-mining, which the latter respectfully rejected. Lee thinks it is their “pride” that resists them from joining hands with Litecoin.

But whether Dogecoin community accepts or denies it, their hashrate and constantly depleting block reward is really a matter of concern for now. They must understand how a low block reward will simply force Dogecoin miners to move towards other profitable cryptocurrencies. As all should know, the Dogecoin block reward has been halved recently due to its blockchain halvening. (Read here for more)

The real trouble arises then is a 51% attack, as expressed by Lee as well. “I talked to the lead developer and I made it obvious that he really needs to make a decision to do something before it’s too late. Once you get attacked, people lose confidence,” he told CCN while expressing his concerns on the dropping hashrate of Dogecoin.

The Shibes however thinks that the merging will put some serious downward pressure on Dogecoin price. They also don’t wish to be termed as a by-product of Litecoin. Some Dogecoin supporters also think changing algorithm to be a better option than merging. But on the whole, nobody was seen denying the issues raised by Lee, which seems genuine enough to take an immediate action. To the moon to the pits, let Shibes decide.


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Litecoin in for Another Leg of Bearish Correction

By Forexminute - Fan Yang | Litecoin | Jul 21, 2014 3:16AM BST




LTCUSD is likely extending a recent consolidation with some near-term downside risk.

LTCUSD 1H Chart 7/21



Looking at the 1H chart, you can see that price has been consolidating since it tagged 9.15 a couple of weeks ago. It came down to 8.20 and then rallied above a near-term trendline resistance.

However, price was unable to clear above a support/resistance pivot at 8.85. This suggests that bulls are not committed yet, and LTCUSD could be in for a longer period of consolidation.

During*the weekend, price action signaled further bearish correction.
1) Price is fell below the near-term rising*trendline from July 16.
2) Price fell below the short-term rising trendline from July 5.
3) Price fell below the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs.
4) The RSI was not able to stay above 40 after it almost tagged 70, which shows lack of bullish momentum.

Looking at the 1H chart, and projecting the 9.15-8.20 swing from the 8.85 area, we get a projection to roughly the 7.95 level, which is a previous resistance during July 9-12. This scenario would be an ABC-correction scenario, and the medium-term outlook remains bullish after the correction. Look out for price to rebound after this C-leg of bearish correction, especially if the RSI shows bullish divergence with price in the oversold area (around 30).
For the bullish outlook to re-emerge, price will have to at least push back above the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages, and push the RSI back above 60 to show lost of bearish momentum.


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The EUR/GBP has been persistently bearish in 2014, since the high on the year at 0.84.
On the daily chart there are some bearish signs to go along with the obvious lower highs and lower lows.
1) Price has been trading within a falling channel.
2) The RSI has tagged 30, and has held below 60, even below 50. This reflects maintenance of bearish momentum.
3) The moving averages are in bearish alignment, with the 200-day above the 100-day, which is above the 50-day. The MAs are all sloping down and are spreading apart. Based on the moving averages, there are NO signs of a let up in the bearish trend.

EUR/GBP Daily Chart 7/21



Negative Reversal:
Let’s get into the RSI again. Last week, when price made a high at 0.7980, it was lower than the the 0.8033 high. However, the RSI high after coming up from oversold conditions, was higher. Based on RSI guru, Andrew Cardwell’s observations, this is call a negative reversal signal, which suggests another bearish swing. We got that additional bearish swing last week, and we are now faced with an extended bullish divergence.

Extended Bullish Divergence:
Looking at the daily chart again, we can see that the RSI lows are higher, as price makes lower lows. While the negative reversal set up points to further decline, the build up of the extended bullish divergence suggests pending consolidation/bullish correction.

Simple Observation: It won’t be difficult to judge a shift away from the persistently bearish trend EUR/GBP has been in since March.
1) If price breaks above 0.7980 it will be breaking the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
2) If price breaks above the falling channel resistance, which should happen if price breaks above the 0.7980 high, then the bearish pattern is broken, and the market is more likely in consolidation.

38.2% Retracement:
Although I am still bearish on the EUR/GBP, I would air on caution and wait for a consolidation larger than the brief ones we have seen within the falling channel. In fact I would monitor the 0.8033 level up to the 0.8084 level for sellers. The 0.8033 level is a previous resistance and where the 50-day SMA resides. The 0.8084 level is 38.2% retracement and near a previous support pivot. If the RSI reading approaches 60, holds, and turns back down, I would also be ready for another bearish continuation swing to test the 0.7888 low on the year so far.

If the market does continue the bearish trend, with or without a significant correction, the next key support will be the 2012-low around 0.7765. The weekly chart shows that there is no established trend in the past 4-years, so if price pushes away from the mean price action reflected by the moving averages, the more likely it will revert back. The weekly RSI being at 30 therefore would suggest some bullish correction at least in the short-term.

EUR/GBP Weekly Chart 7/21




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Bitcoin – Triangle Pattern with Bullish Bias

By Forexminute - Fan Yang | Bitcoin | Jul 22, 2014 3:44AM BST




Bitcoin continues to trade in a triangle pattern as seen in the daily chart.



In the daily chart, there are some bullish clues:
1) Price is trading above the 200- 100-, 50-day simple moving averages.
2) The RSI has pushed above 80, and has since held above 40, which reflects maintenance of the bullish momentum.
3) Price is holding above a rising trendline from April.

The 4H chart shows a directionless market in July, but there is some bullish bias here too:



1) price is holding above 610, which is the “central pivot” of the triangle. This suggests bulls are in charge even though the cryptocurrency is consolidating.
2) The RSI has tagged above 70. Then even though it has cracked 40, it has not tagged 30. This shows some bullish bias in momentum, although we have to acknowledge the loss of bullish momentum.
3) While price trades below between the moving averages, it is sideways. However, it if pops up above 630 for example then treats the cluster of moving averages as support, we should get ready for a bullish attempt to break above the triangle seen in the daily chart.

If price falls below 610, we are probably going to see further consolidation and a test of triangle support which could be in the 590-600 area. Otherwise, with price staying above 610 in July, there is bullish bias within consolidation.

To the upside, the first target will be the July high around 658. Being able to reach the July high suggests further upside especially if the market sees that the last week or two of consolidation become support. In this scenario, the upside above 660 will be the March 2014 high at 710. We should then look at a bullish outlook toward the 700-710 area if BTCUSD*can push above 660.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis 22nd July

By Forexminute - Yes Option | Bitcoin | Jul 22, 2014 4:00PM BST




A close look at daily charts of BTC/USD shows that the digital currency is trading in a very narrow range on back of low volumes but has taken strong support at $609 which is also the monthly pivot level for the digital currency. Aggressive traders are watching the aforementioned level as any close below the above level would lead to reversals of many long trades. BTC/USD in yesterday’s trading session touched made an intraday low of $611.5 but saw some buying at lower levels and closed towards the higher point of the day. The momentum indicators for the digital currency are in flat trajectory which confirms the current sideways movement in BTC/USD.



BTC/USD on hourly charts has support at levels of $611.94, but has been trading in a very narrow trading range, finding it difficult to cross the resistance levels of $616.94. The MACD for the BTC/USD has provided a fresh buy signal on low volumes. For long term traders, a an entry point should be initiated above $617 with a strict stop loss at $611. Meanwhile, short trades should be initiated once the BTC/USD closes below $611 with a stop loss set at $617.

In other news Latvia based airline, airBaltic has become the first airline to accept Bitcoins as a mode of payment, announcing through twitter rather than releasing an official press release.However, the airline made it clear that the Bitcoin payment is applicable on basic class fares to select countries, and travellers will have to pay a handling fee of €5.99 on each of the transaction. The use of cryptocurrency is gaining traction in the travel sector with Expedia, a key travel player, embracing the virtual currency for hotel bookings last month and reporting that the response turned out better than expected.

The increasing number of businesses accepting the digital currency only bodes well for the future despite the current narrow trading range and may provide strong buy opportunity for medium and long term trades.


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Today’s big fundamental release for Australia was the CPI data, released quarterly. The headline CPI reading on the quarter was 0.5%, which was in-line with expectations and slightly lower than the 0.6% in Q1.
However, the trimmed mean CPI, which excludes 30% of the most volatile items jumped to 0.8% on the quarter, up from 0.5% in Q1. This was also in-line with expectations.

Click to enlarge: AUS CPI breakdown for Q2 2014


The key data point from today’s inflation report should be the 3.0% year-to-year reading. We have seen the CPI inflation rate*rising*from an annual rate of*1.2% low in Q2 of 2012. The Q1 reading was 2.9%, which was already elevated. The “target rate” is 2.0%. The elevated inflation data puts pressure on the RBA to raise rates, although it can’t do that unless the economy picks up steam as well. Still, faster inflation greases the wheel towards a rate cut and the AUD rallied accordingly.

The AUD/USD broke above July’s falling trendline. The 4H chart also shows that price is surging above a cluster of moving*averages. This suggests the market has been sideways, but is now giving us a bullish signal. The RSI is pushing toward 70, which would establish bullish momentum, or at least a loss of the bearish momentum.



Given that the pair is bullish in the daily chart, the bullish breakout today suggests a test of the 2014-high around 0.95 with a strong likelihood to break higher and continue the prevailing*trend, which was bullish.

As price nears the 0.9440-0.9450 area, it will face some common resistance from June, which caused a failed bullish attempt during the*July 9 session. We can expect some near-term pullback especially if the 4H RSI shows a bearish divergence. Then we should monitor the 0.94 area for support. If price can hold above 0.94 after a pullback, and the 4H RSI can hold above 40 after poking through 70, then we have an even stronger case for the bullish continuation scenario.


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Nxt is indeed working towards becoming the next best cryptocurrency in the market. The next generation coin, which was already famous for its unique source code and dozen other built-in features, is further catching eyeballs with its increasing influence in mainstream market. This gets further proved by the recent announcement of renowned Danish cryptocurrency exchange CCEDK, which has added two new Nxt trading instruments.
The newly introduced trading instruments are NXT/USD and NXT/EUR, making Nxt directly exchangeable with US Dollar and Euro. Earlier, users were required to first exchange NXT with BTC, in order to receive the outcome in USD. CCEDK has thus eliminated an unrequired step to ease its services for Nxt users.

CCEDK although is still the second cryptocurrency exchange to offer Nxt-to-fiat-currency exchange services. The first one was China-based Bitcoin exchange BTER, which allowed users to exchange Nxt with USD and CNY. However, the Chinese territory has lately become a danger zone for cryptocurrency businesses due to which Nxt couldn’t take much benefit from it.
According to CoinMarketCap.com, the value of Nxt has increased substantially since the announcement. The coin’s current market cap is over $51 million and is the third wealthiest one among over 300 cryptocurrencies. It also holds around 20,000 active customers, which will eventually be going to benefit CCEDK.


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UK Financial Regulator Launches Criminal Proceedings against Bogus FX Trader

By Forexminute - Yashu Gola | Forex Industry News | Jul 24, 2014 3:00AM BST




The UK financial regulator has commenced criminal charge proceedings against Philip Harold Boakes, a 54-year old broker from Stratford-Upon-Avon in Warwickshire after he swindled investors of their monies through his company Currencytrader Ltd.
Boakes, who is accused of 13 offences such as fraud, theft, forgery and running an unauthorized forex trading business, may face a stiff penalty as the Financial Conduct Authority looks to reinforce its reputation as one of the world’s strictest financial regulators.

The FCA disclosed that all the offences are related to the unregistered investment vehicle that Boakes ran from Oct. 1, 2004 to June 4, 2013, though his company’s website currency-trader.co.uk is still operational and looking for new clients.

The simple one-paged website says that anybody who registers for the weekly email newsletter will master the “Tricks of the Institutional Dealers and Traders”. Boakes first appeared in the City of London Magistrate’s Court on Tuesday this week before the case was transferred to the Southwark Crown Court where the first hearing will be conducted on Aug. 5, 2014. The British law gives the Crown Court greater powers to review criminal cases than Magistrates’ Court hence Boakes is likely to face a criminal sentence.

Meanwhile, the Financial Conduct Authority is also accelerating negotiations with a group of banks such as Barclays Bank Plc, UBS AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup Inc. to reach a settlement on the forex benchmark rigging investigation, reported Bloomberg News. Other banks thought to be included in the negotiations include Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc.


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