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Re: SuperForex - Company News

This is a discussion on Re: SuperForex - Company News within the Forex Brokers forums, part of the Trading Forum category; OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast Oil prices continue weakening but the rates are still in the frames of ...

          
   
  1. #51
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    OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast

    Oil prices continue weakening but the rates are still in the frames of upward trend which began over a year ago. However, the trend is near the completion, and now on the daily chart, you can see signs of the flat trend formation, as the prices from November 2016, keep in the range of 47 - $ 54 per barrel. Support and resistance lines hadn't been broken for all the time. Uncreasing of the drilling rigs in the United States, 15 consecutive week, continue to adversely affect the price of oil. The price of oil reached a minimum level, which for 6 months has been achieved only 2 times.

    On the market we can see uncertain situation: on the one hand, OPEC countries are going to continue the agreement “On the reduction of oil production”, and investors believe that it will be done at the next meeting, may 25. On the other hand, the USA abolishes all these efforts with their growth of oil production. Increasing of oil demand will unlikely resolve the issue with the overabundance of oil on the market. Amid this, long-term forecasts of some analysts, in particular experts from Citigroup (NYCE:C) about further increasing the price of oil to $ 65 in the second half of the year, does not seem probable cause oil prices are constantly under the pressure from a number of factors. This week it was the recovery of oil production in Libya, the recession of business activity in China and mentioned before, constant increasing in drilling rigs in the United States. Factors that could unambiguously support the price of oil are not enough, but the situation may change at the end of the month on the results of the OPEC meeting.

    At this moment, the entry point to the market we can call the levels of 47.4 and 48.2. The most optimal for the moment we can determine the deals to BUY which can be effective to get the profit on the price correction. MACD, RSI, oscillators partially confirm this. It is most likely that after reaching a new minimum level, the price will move up. Soon investors will focus on the next OPEC meeting, and news from countries-participants of the Agreement “On the reduction of oil production”. It can slightly enhance the price of black gold in the short term.


  2. #52
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    USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.

    USD/SEK becomes one of the most underrated currency pairs on the market, considering very high volatility and predictability. It helps to see how the results of the Presidential elections in France affected the rates. Of course, the main reason for the strengthening of the Swedish Krona, which strengthened against the dollar, was the strengthening of the Euro. Question of the victory of E. Makron is a question of the EU future. Sweden is highly depending on the EU. That's why it happened but the giant price hike from 9.02, to 8.7 SEK surpassed all expectations from the predictable outcome of these elections. Traders who are focused on currency pairs related with Euro - EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and others, missed a great opportunity to earn on USD/SEK.
    At the moment, the rates consolidated at the level of 8.83 - 8.84 SEK for $ 1. The market is waiting for the unemployment report in the United States. Also, in the evening, we expect the speech of the FED Chairperson Yellen and FOMC members. It can affect the rates and strengthen the dollar. But recently received information about Swedish economy, in particular, increase of the volume of industrial production in 3.8% year on year, the increase in orders for the industry, achieving one of the highest levels over the past 10 years, will not allow the Swedish krona to lose a lot in price. Though the main event is the 2nd round of the French elections, where the victory of E. Makron is obvious for investors. It definitely will lead to further strengthening of the EUR and SEK.
    At the moment the rates of the USD/SEK are in the frames of the flat trend but high volatility, which can be seen on the chart since the beginning of this year, makes this trend special: the rates are in a very wide range from 9.07 - up to 8.76 SEK. The most clear the trend can be seen only on the hourly and daily chart. Points of entry can be considered on the levels 8.817 and 8.855. Oscillator MACD is neutral while the Stochastic is showing a signal to open the short deals, which is absolutely right decision upon medium-term trade, considering possible impact of the upcoming elections in France, on the rates of USD/SEK. Upon short-term trading, you can open the deals to BUY, though volatility won't be high today.

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  3. #53
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    NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast

    Situation for the NZD has not changed yet. the rates continue to be in the frames of the downward trend, though it lost its intensity. The dollar continues to strengthen against the NZD, although we can not say that the New Zealand economy is in a bad state. Despite the rising inflation, the country's economy gradually develops and demonstrates growth. However, it does not allow the New Zealand currency to hold against the strong U.S. dollar.

    Last week, the dollar strengthened amid the positive statistics about unemployment and the results of the FED meeting, which decided to leave interest rate unchanged, but considering sure growth of the US economy, reducing in unemployment, they plan to do it in June if nothing changes. Therefore, the probability of a rate hike is rated as very high.

    At the moment, the rates of the NZD/USD stabilized in the range of 0.688 - 0,694 USD. We can also say that these levels are also good entry points to the market. Until the next day, volatility will be low because investors are waiting for the meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and their decision to change the rate. Now it's 1.75%. Investors don't expect for the rate changes just because the RBNZ in March, said that they don't not plan to change the rate until the 2019. Though continued weakening of the NZD can make them to change their decision because the rate increase would strengthen the NZD.

    Oscillators are neutral for the moment and in this situation, the best solution is to open the deals on the trend. We can say that also, considering that there're no any real reasons for the trend change and strengthening of the NZD in the near future. Therefore, the deals to SELL can be the most effective now, upon the short and medium-term trading.

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  4. #54
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    AUD/CAD: review and forecast

    The rates of the AUD/CAD continues in the frames of the upward trend. The canadian dollar remains under the pressure of low oil prices. Volatility for this currency pair remains very high. So, in early may, disappointing statistics about economy of Australia and China, have led to significant falling of the AUD value. During 1 day it has been lost 2 CAD cents. It was influence of the data about the trade balance of Australia. Investors expected the growth of the surplus to 3.4 billion while it was just 3.1 billion; also disappointed the value of the business activity index in the services sector in China.
    By the end of next week, the volatility in the market can be decreased. The market don't expect any important data until next Friday. Then, the market will receive information about retail sales and consumer prices in Canada, for April. A day earlier, also expect information on employment in Australia in April. It should also be noted that this month will be the summit of the OPEC and volatility will be gradually increasing together with the oil prices. So it can strengthen the CAD because it is expected that on the upcoming summit countries-exporters will extend the agreement about Reduction of the oil extraction. Therefore, oil prices will rise for some time, but countries which didn't join the agreement, mainly the US, unlikely will let oil to rise significantly in price for a long period because if prices increase the USA increasing the volume of oil production, adversely affecting the market.
    Oscillators are neutral at the moment, but considering perspectives of oil prices growth in the near future, and consequently the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, the optimal solution now is to open the deals to SELL upon medium term trading. Upon the short-term trading, it is also possible to open the deals on the trend.

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  5. #55
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    EUR/SGD: review and forecast

    Strengthening of the Euro, which began since the 1st round of elections in France, continues now. Political risks for the EU has been decreased and future of the EU does not cause serious doubts among investors anymore. Good economic indicators in the Eurozone, allow the Euro to grow, against most of currencies including the SGD. So we can see that on the chart of the EUR/SGD was formed by the rapid upward trend which may continue in the future. The value of the Euro reached the price 1.5455 SGD which is the highest level for the last 12 months.This week, the Euro also strengthened significantly against the USD, reaching the highest for the 6 months level.

    Obtained data on GDP matched with expectations of investors, as well as recently received data about the consumer price index, so they continue to invest in Euro. At the same time, the Singapore dollar is losing value and can't find an incentive to strengthen. Received today data about Domestic Exports of Non Oil (NODX) in Singapore decreased to - 0.7 % yoy while investors were expecting for 12.4% growth considering that last month NODX volumes increased up to 16.5% yoy It should be noted that fall of exports, has been fixed for the first time in 6 months, so the market took it negatively.
    New upward trend will probably continue, but in the near future we can expect for price correction. Oscillators MACD, Stochastics, RSI, unanimously indicate a good moment to open the short deals against the trend. Though upon medium-term trading it is better to open the deals on the trend.

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  6. #56
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    NZD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast

    Since the beginning of the year, the rates of the NZD/JPY continued in the frames of the rapid downtrend, however, the situation began to change and the current trend is under threat to change. On the chart has traced the new upward trend. It is too early to speak about the final change, but probability remains high. Both support line and resistance line have been removed. Though if the resistance line shifted in the downward direction, the support line has been reversed up.
    So, Why the trend has begun to change its direction? In the beginning of the month, the Japanese yen came under the pressure because of geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The conflict at any moment could go to the active zone and Japan could be involved in this conflict. So, the yen has lost positions against most currencies. Amid the geopolitical risks for Japan, the new Zealand dollar has been supported by positive data about retail volume which rose in the 1st quarter of 2017 in 1.5% against the forecast of 0.9%. It was the sharpest increase in retail trade since the second quarter of 2016. In addition, the number of tourists in April, continues to grow, increasing by 20% year on year. Strengthening of the NZD also contributes by the rising commodity prices, including oil.
    Nevertheless, the Japanese yen managed to take the initiative again due to yesterday's data about the Japanese economy. Japan's GDP for the first quarter of 2017 increased by 0.5%, coinciding with the forecasts of investors, and in year on year increasing was 2.2%, against forecasted 1.7%. In addition, second month in a row, orders for machinery have increased, although investors expected more than actual + 1.4% growth.
    At the moment, the value of NZD consolidated in the range of 76.7 - 77.1 JPY. This levels are good entry points to the market. At the moment, the most optimal can be the deals to BUY, considering that today the market is expecting for the data about the milk price index. It will be published today and can support the NZD in the short term perspective. MACD, RSI oscillators confirm this and also signal a good moment for opening the deals to BUY. As for the medium-term trading, next week we'll get the data about the trade balance and export volumes - both from Japan and New Zealand. So, both currencies can get support and go up in price.



  7. #57
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    CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast


    The rates of the CAD/JPY for a long time was in the frames of the rapid downward trend, but now the situation can be changed: the trend had lost its intensity and the canadian dollar strengthened against the yen. Perhaps we can see beginning of a new trend. Actually it has been formed and we can see that resistance line has been shifted, and the support line had turned up. However, given that strengthening of the CAD, is mainly based on the increasing of oil prices, which continues to grow amid upcoming summit of OPEC this Friday, crude oil prices may resume a declining for the next few weeks. And this will happen in any case - if OPEC countries extend the agreement On the reduction of oil and in case if not extended. The reason is that extending of the agreement by the OPEC does not solve all questions about the overabundance of oil on the market. The United States and Canada can negate all effect, and higher prices will only motivate for further increasing of oil production. this has been proven in practice.
    The Japanese yen wasn't able to resist successfully the onslaught of the Canadian dollar due to disappointing data from Japan this week: trade balance of Japan was 0.1 T in April, although investors expected level of 0.25 T, the volume of exports grew by only 7.5% against the expected growth of 7.8% and
    the volume of imports increased by 15%, which is more than expected but in the future it is a threat to the trade balance of the country. Next week important data that could support JPY is not expected at all.
    Thus, we can say that in the short term, the CAD will strengthen against many currencies due to the increasing of oil prices. It's happening now - oil prices on Monday achieved a 5 week high and continue to grow, so the deals to Buy will be most effective at this moment upon short term trading.

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  8. #58
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    XAU/USD (GOLD): Short review and forecast

    This week prices for Gold continue to grow. The main factor of growth, of course, was the terrorist attack in Manchester, which forced investors to turn to less risky assets. In addition, the growth of prices continued amid the weak dollar and based on the results of the FOMC Committee meeting, where was designated plans of the US Central Bank to reduce the balance before the end of this year. The FED, which had planned a rate increase this year 2 times, began doubt about necessity for further growth of the rate due to weak economic indicators and slowdown of the economy, although the probability of a rate hike in June remains high. Of course it's also impacted the value of GOLD. Political instability in the United States and possibility of beginning a full and protracted political crisis also, contributes the growth.
    So, there're a lot of factors which say about further increasing of prices. We can say for sure that the upward trend will continue and increase its intensity in the near future. It should be noted that the rates was carried out with high volatility in a wide range, but now the situation changes and the upward trend is more stable, which is clearly seen on the chart.
    Thus, we can say that at the moment, the deals to BUY are more effective. Oscillator MACD confirms this.


  9. #59
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    OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast

    Oil prices are gradually decreasing. Extension of the Pact on "Reducing of oil extraction" does not change the situation, as it was expected. OPEC's attempt to impact the market with the help of this agreement will be doomed, amid news about increasing of drilling activity in the USA, 19th week in a row, and increasing of oil production in Libya which haven't joint the agreement on "Reducing of oil extraction". At the same time, in order for achieving the balance on the market and oil prices growth, it is necessary to reduce oil extraction by all countries-manufacturers but this does not happen, and the reserves of crude oil on the market are close to record levels. Thus, the supply continues to exceed demand on the market.
    Despite the dominant number of negative signals on the market, the rates of oil continues in the frames of the upward trend, though it is solely by inertia, and it's not based on objective factors. There're no perspectives for further growth at the moment. Most likely, in the near future, the upward trend will be changed to the flat trend which has already been formed. Lines of support and resistance can be fixed at the levels of 44.5 and $ 54 a barrel mark CL/WTI.
    Oscillators are neutral at the moment. Today investors are waiting for the data about oil stocks from the American petroleum Institute. Investors expect a reduction of oil reserves that may support oil prices a bit. Therefore, upon short-term trading, you can open the deals to BUY. But upon medium-term trading, the deals to SELL can be more effective.

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  10. #60
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    USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.

    Since the beginning of April, the rates of USD/SEK continue in the frames of the downtrend. While the U.S dollar is under the pressure due to political scandals of the administration of D. Trump and slowdown of US economic growth, the Swedish Krona continues to strengthen, and reached the best level for the last 9 months - 8.68 SEK. against the dollar. But weakening of the dollar isn't the only reason that caused the strengthening of the crown. Also impacted the end of political uncertainty in the EU, and optimal economic indicators in Sweden. Published data showed GDP growth in Sweden to 0.4 % in Q1 2017. Investors expect more significant growth at 0.9%, but given the weakening dollar, it was enough to continue strengthening.
    Probably the downtrend will continue this month. The U.S. dollar, however, can be strengthened for some period. In particular, published data about employment in the US, encouraged investors, and it is stopped the weakening of the USD and consolidated the rates. According to the ADP's company report , the number of jobs created in may increased by 253 thousand, although it was expected only by 185 thousand places. Today we expect the official data from the Ministry of labour, which likely will confirm the statistics from the ADP. Good data on the labor market may influence the FED's decision to raise the rate. So investors are focused on this data and waiting for it with high attention.
    Thus, in the near future, we can expect a price correction and upon short-term trading, the most effective will be the deals to Buy. The Stochastic oscillator also indicates a good time for the long trades. We can also designate the points of entry at the levels 8.671 and 8.705 SEK, breakout of which will be signalized the exit from the consolidation phase. Special attention should be paid to the level 8.671, achieving of which will be signalized about continuation of the trend, and can be a good signal to open the short deals.


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