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The trade wars started by Donald Trump in 2018 have had a massive negative impact on the markets. With a widespread tariff on steel and aluminum applied to multiple countries Trump made the lives of manufacturers more difficult, and with his extra harsh fees on Chinese goods, the whole world economy found itself staggering.
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The rates continue within the upward trend, but the intensity of the trend is falling rapidly. In February oil was strengthened by increasing the probability of a solution to the trade conflict between China and the United States and a truce between these countries, but as time goes by investors are not receiving any concrete evidence of progress in the trade negotiations. In addition, oil prices are limited in growth due to forecasts of a slowdown in the global economy.
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Today we will be able to observe either the continuation of the dollar rally for the seventh day in a row, or a reversal and correction. During yesterday's trading session the dollar index remained almost unchanged, while US stock markets declined due to fears of a slowdown in global growth rates.
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This week was definitely not lacking in economic news. Donald Trump’s administration continues to be hard at work negotiating a trade agreement with China which is expected to end the trade war, an event likely to impact positively the entire world. Moreover, the European Central Bank had an important policy meeting this week, where new cheap loans for European banks were announced and the economic forecast was revised down.
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Today we would take a look at the EUR/USD currency pair. The euro kept decreasing all throughout last week, but today it opened in the green.
The European single currency is widely expected to continue weakening. Last week the European Central Bank announced a new set of dovish measures to support the economy in the form of cheap bank loans, which are supposed to encourage spending and help inflation rise. Additionally, the ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the ECB’s previous forecast of possible rate hikes in the middle of 2019 no longer applies and likely there will not be a hawkish turn in their stance this year at all. The fundamental reports coming in today are somewhat disappointing, so we don’t see the EUR strengthening this week at all.

Meanwhile, the American dollar continues to benefit from its position as a safety asset. The Federal Reserve is taking a cautious course this year and has refrained from hiking interest rates any further, finding the American economy to be near its perfect balance. However, with global uncertainty and a still not finalized trade deal between the United States and China, investors still prefer to back the dollar as a strong investment tool, which contributes to its rising price.
In terms of the daily chart, today we have a pivot point for the pair located at 1.1235, with the price currently trading slightly above it. The daily support levels lie at 1.1227 and 1.1222. The daily resistances are located at 1.1240 and 1.1248. The indicators of technical analysis and the moving averages agree on a strong sell recommendation.
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Hope for a calm Brexit supported the British pound and the pair demonstrated a strong upward momentum during yesterday's trading session.
The dollar index, on the contrary, during yesterday's trading session fell below the 97.00 level.
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The rates continue within the downward trend formed more than a year ago. At the same time, we see a gradual decrease in volatility and a narrowing of the range. Despite the rise in oil prices, as well as the economic downturn in the EU, the Swiss franc in the long term was more stable and less exposed to negative factors, confirming its status of a safe asset.
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During yesterday's trading session the British pound once again showed a positive trend. After the Brexit vote, we again saw a strong upward momentum in the pair, and it is quite possible that the pair may soon head for the 1.35 mark.
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Today we would take a look at the EUR/USD currency pair. As of last week the pair continues steadily growing.
Not much has changed for the European single currency since our last analysis. Fundamental reports, while not altogether awful, remain off-target for the most part and inflation continues to be low. The European Central Bank recently unveiled a new stimulus plan which is naturally contributing to a further weakness in the euro.
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