A bullish bias remains after USD/JPY broke above a three-year trendline and continues to trade strongly in a supportive market. Supportive forces include Japanese equities via the Nikkei 225 that is testing 2018 highs (just like USD/JPY,) alongside the highly correlated (40-day rolling at +0.8921) US Treasury 2yr yield that has risen from 2.58 in mid-August when USDJPY traded at 109.97 to 2.839 today, which is a rise of 25.4bps or 9.8% as the Fed is expected to be more hawkish on an overheating ...
It's been a climactic past month of price action in the British Pound. As we walked into the final week of August, GBP/USD was continuing to hold on to the sell-off that had driven the currency for much of the prior four months. Prices had just sunk down to find support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the Brexit-move, and this was a more than 1,500 pips away from where the pair had topped-out at in mid-April. There was little by way of positivity at the time. ...
On Thursday, the euro finally made some headway out of the congestion it's been stuck in during the past few weeks. The breakout turns the once-viewed resistance area in the low to mid-11700s into support, and as long as price stays above the outlook is favorable for another leg higher. A break below 11700 would put price back inside the choppiness the euro just came from and at the least be a caution signal for longs, if not turn the tone ...
The US Dollar is seeing its sharpest pullback after touching technical resistance mid-month at 97. The Dollar Index has pulled back by 2.4% despite hawkish talk from Fed members. The key question on the charts will be as to whether the next move higher in US Dollar will result in a lower-high that is followed by the next big breakdown. As a technically-driven FX trader, the most important development for me to watch is what happens on the ...
Backwardation is rising again, and that’s good news for bulls. The spread between December 2018 and December 2019 has widened in favor of Dec. 18 showing a demand premium that will likely continue to support the bullish argument. The rise came after the largest stockpile drawdown of crude in the US in four weeks per weekly EIA data. Weekly EIA data showed a bigger-than-expected draw of nearly six million barrels against an expectation of ...
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