TechnoMeter

Crude Oil Inventory Data Shows Rising Output and Inventories

Recently, data from the EIA showed a rise in US stockpiles after excessive declines through H2 2017. Typically, a rise in stockpiles wouldn’t offer too much concern except that US production rose to a record high. Earlier this week, the EIA Drilling Productivity Report highlighted US shale production as likely to increase further in April to a record high 6.95mm bpd. This data will act as a cloud preventing further bullishness from taking over unless demand picks up mightily.



Another way of seeing this fear of supply pressures is through futures spreads, which help show if traders and hedgers in the physical market see Contango where the front dated contract trades at a premium or backwardation where the front-month contract trades at a premium and often supports a broader bullish view.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias.

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