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Is Iceland's volcano erupting? Scientists are still waiting to see

A volcano on Iceland buried beneath a thick glacier may or may not be erupting — after a week of ominous rumbling in the region. But scientists now disagree on what, exactly, is happening.

Early on Saturday August 23, officials thought they had detected a small lava eruption near Iceland's Bárðarbunga volcano, which is buried underneath the massive Vatnajokull glacier in the center of the island. But later in the day, scientists disagreed as to whether magma had actually reached the surface or not.

Here was the initial announcement early on Saturday morning: "It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier," the Icelandic Meteorological Office said. "The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red" (red means an eruption is either imminent or in progress).

By the evening, however, officials were less certain. "Presently there are no signs of ongoing volcanic activity," the IMO reported. "The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano remains red as an imminent eruption can not be excluded." Among other things, the IMO noted that overflights had not detected any changes on the glacier — and there wasn't the sort of flooding you'd expect if magma was melting the glacier:



Some background: Since August 16, scientists have been tracking thousands of small earthquakes in the vicinity of Iceland's Bárðarbunga volcanic system, which is covered by the country's massive Vatnajokull glacier. The earthquakes were a sign that magma was on the move.

Then, on August 23, scientists thought they'd detected "subglacial" eruption under the Dyngjujökull icecap in the northern part of the glacier. That would mean that lava is coming out of the volcano and beginning to melt the ice from below.

By evening, however, they were less sure. Overflights detected no signs of change on the glacier, and there no signs of floodwater draining from the glacier. Still, in light of the earthquake activity, the IMO couldn't rule out an imminent eruption and has kept the "red" code for Bárðarbunga.

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