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Soft Brexit And The EU Elections

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by , 05-29-2019 at 08:46 AM (138 Views)
          
   
Forward-looking highlights from GeoQuant's high-frequency political risk intelligence platform.

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The UK’s EU election results gave Remain sentiment a clear victory (40.4%) over hard Brexit advocates (34.9%), despite the Brexit Party’s plurality win. While this outcome raises prospects for derailing Brexit, the Conservative Party still controls parliament and remains broadly pro-Brexit, more at odds over form than outcome. The election result should make Tory backbenchers more wary of selecting a hard Brexit advocate as leader, but bringing on a strong pro-Brexit supporter may be the only way to get hard Brexit supporters to sign onto a “soft” Brexit deal. As a result, Sunday’s election outcome clearly raises the potential for both a no-deal Brexit, as well as no Brexit at all.

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