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The following are UBS' latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD. EUR/USD: has already had big moves following USDJPY. This price action is likely to continue. It feels like the market still likes to be short and while this could be justified with Greece in mind, it is definitely not a one-way street anymore. Stay flexible and try to catch some of the wild intraday moves. ...
The impact of the Eurogroup’s failure to achieve a Greek settlement over the weekend will be temporarily supplanted as investors turn their attention towards tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. We remain USD bulls as the FOMC should strike a more constructive tone raising rate hike expectations. Latest soft US data have not changed our opinion. To the contrary, our call remains for Fed lift-off in September with a bias towards further FOMC ...
It appears that well supported BoE rate expectations continue to keep currency downside limited from current levels. In that respect it must be noted that medium-term inflation expectations, as measured by 5Y forward breakeven rates, remain close to multiweek highs. Unless forward looking indicators suggest moderating price developments it appears unlikely that the BoE will turn more cautious anytime soon. ...
Morgan Stanley Chart Of The Week - EURUSD On the long-term EUR/USD Chart "Despite the corrective rebound developed since early March, EURUSD remains within a long term down trend, which accelerated from June of last year. Indeed, this move lower over the past year forms part of a C wave decline within a broad multi year corrective structure which has developed since the 1.6038 peak of 2008. The pace of decline over the past year is typical for a C wave. This suggests ...
EUR/USD: And now? With yesterday’s downside correction out of the way there’s a big question mark over what the next step from here will be. However as long as the hourly pattern with lower highs remains in place (i.e. staying below 1.1278) we will hold a light downside bias. EUR/JPY: 3RD Attempt to break below 138.44. With a relatively high probability we’re now in for a third attempt to break ...
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