1Finance

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, February 12 - February 19



EUR/USD was unable to take advantage of the greenback’s weakness and suffered trouble of its own. GDP numbers stand out and also the ECB meeting minutes should be watched.

1. German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. The biggest economy in the euro-zone experienced slower growth in Q3, growing by only 0.2%. An accelerated level of growth is expected for Q4, in line with other European countries that have already published their inflation figures.
2. German CPI (final): Tuesday, 7:00. According to the initial data, Germany saw a drop of 0.6% in prices in January, slide below projections. This will probably be confirmed now.
3. Italian GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. The third-largest economy enjoyed a neat 0.3% growth rate in Q3 2016 after suffering no growth in Q2. The data for Q4 could be positive.
4. Flash GDP: Tuesday,10:00. According to the initial GDP read, the euro-zone economies enjoyed an uptick in growth: 0.5% in Q4 2016. The second read is projected to confirm the initial data, but a lot depends on Germany.
5. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. Slightly overshadowed by the GDP figures, Germany’s ZEW institution will give an update on business confidence for February. A score of 16.6 was seen in January, a rise, but below expectations. The all-European number stood at 23.2 points.
6. Industrial Production: Tuesday, 10:00. The 19-country currency bloc experienced a robust increase of 1.5% in industrial output back in November. The data for December will probably be negative due to Germany’s poor performance.
7. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 10:00. German exports tip the euro-zone to a surplus every month and December is likely to be no different, despite a narrower surplus from the euro-area’s largest country. A positive balance of 22.7 billion was seen in November.
8. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. Four weeks after the European Central Bank stuck to its dovish tone, the minutes from the meeting are released. It will be interesting to see whether some members were opposed to dismissing the recent rise in inflation as only energy-based or if some of the German members wanted to express a more upbeat tone.
9. Current Account: Friday, 9:00. Similar to the trade balance report, this wider measure of trade, including services as well, is traditionally positive. A surplus of 36.1 billion was seen in November.

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