1Finance

EUR/USD managed to recover as November began. Updated EU forecasts and some German data stand out, as Americans go to the polls. Volatility is going to be high. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. Eurogroup meetings: Monday, with the wider Ecofin on Tuesday. European finance ministers convene to discuss business. Comments come out throughout the day.
2. German Factory Orders: Monday, 7:00. A rise of 0.2% is on the cards.
3. Retail PMI: Monday, 9:10. A similar figure is likely now.
4. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. A tick up to 8.7 is on the cards.
5. Retail Sales: Monday, 10:00. A slide of 0.3% is expected.
6. US elections: Tuesday, with the first results coming on Wednesday at 00:00 GMT and into the early hours of the morning. Markets usually prefer Republican pro-business, pro-market presidents, but Donald Trump is a different kind of candidate. The self-proclaimed billionaire is seen as extremely erratic and anti-trade. His rival, Hillary Clinton, is unexciting but cannot be characterized as anti-market per-se. Fear of a Trump victory hurt the US dollar while better chances for a Clinton victory helped the greenback. The race has tightened recently, pushing the dollar lower against the euro, but the euro is not a classic safe-haven currency, therefore it could join commodity currencies in losing and not the yen in winning upon a Trump victory. A Clinton victory is not fully priced in, but the reaction will not be as strong as a Trump victory.
7. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 7:00. A slide of 0.4% is predicted.
8. German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. A wider surplus of 23.4 billion euros is on the cards.
9. French Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:45. Contrary to Germany, France has a deficit. A more narrow deficit of 4.1 billion euros is projected.
10. EU Economic Forecasts: Wednesday, 10:00.
11. French Industrial Production: Thursday, 7:45. A correction could come now but economists expect +0.3%.
12. German inflation data: Friday, 7:00. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is expected to rise by 0.2% after 0.4% last time.

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