1Finance

• "While our economist Michelle Girard thinks the Fed may disappoint on giving a “firm” signal, which would fit with their data dependent outlook, she sees a risk that the FOMC minutes begin to put a greater emphasis on the pace of hikes being gradual. A clear discussion along those lines may be a “soft signal” that an earlier start to rate hikes, giving more assurance that a gradual pace can be taken, is the preferred path of the FOMC’s majority."
• "Because the meeting took place before China’s devaluation, that discussion should not come up in the FOMC July minutes."
• "It’s also too early for that impact to be seen in the July CPI, which is the key data release tomorrow in the US ahead of the FOMC minutes. Our economists see the risks to the y/y rate as slightly on the upside – a “high” 0.2% m/m edge up in the core CPI index could push the y/y rate up from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y."

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