1Finance

Goldman Sachs:

• The employment components of various manufacturing surveys have been weak (Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, Chicago PMI & the ISM services report)
• Mining sector job losses may persist and continue to be a drag
• GS say that the consensus forecast has overestimated jobs growth in May for the last few years, by 56,000 on average over the previous 5 years
• Warm weather likely inflated the jobs number in April, but this may have taken from jobs gains in May

Barclays:

• Expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 225k
• Private payrolls to increase by 220k
• Government payrolls to grow by 5k
• They note initial and continuing claims both fell sharply in May from April

Deutsche Bank:

• Say that jobless claims are hovering near a 15-year low
• The growth rate of employee tax withholding receipts has meaningfully increased from the April to May employment survey periods (up about 5.6% in May compared to less than 4% in April)

RBS:

• Expect average hourly earnings growth to rise from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y
• Which would equal the largest y/y increase since 2009
• Expect unemployment rate steady at 5.4%
• Stronger-than-expected employment should keep the Fed on pace to hike the Fed Funds rate in September, and pulling forward of expectations could support the USD. A stronger USD and pulled-forward rate hike expectations could pressure commodity prices and weigh on commodity exporter currencies

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