Forward-looking highlights from GeoQuant's high-frequency political risk intelligence platform. The UK’s EU election results gave Remain sentiment a clear victory (40.4%) over hard Brexit advocates (34.9%), despite the Brexit Party’s plurality win. While this outcome raises prospects for derailing Brexit, the Conservative Party still controls parliament and remains broadly pro-Brexit, more at odds over form than outcome. The election result ...
With Sterling up around 7% against the U.S dollar this year to date but down some 12% from the $1.50 level on the referendum on Britain's European Union (EU) membership in June 2016, what are the prospects for the Pound following the outcome of the 'Indicative Vote' process today in Parliament? more...
As I see it, there are three main options: 1) leave the EU without a deal (the “hard” Brexit); 2) halt the entire Brexit process, leaving open the possibility of another referendum; and 3) go back to the drawing board and renegotiate. By any measure, a hard Brexit would be disastrous. more...
There is the “backstop”, a form of assurance that the Republic of Ireland seeks in that the border with Northern Ireland (part of the UK) is kept completely open for the free passage of trade, people, and services. Dublin insists on this, even if there is a hard or “No-Deal” Brexit. It is not too difficult to see why the Irish feel this way as the UK accounts for 16% of Irish exports and 39% of their imports. Any fetter to the freedom ...
Foreign Exchange post-Brexit Vote The RMB has depreciated ~8% from ~6.2 to ~6.7 RMB/USD in one year, weakest since Oct 2010. The risk of a resumption of capital outflows driven by expectations of near-term RMB weakening is therefore rising. The official FX reserve figures of over $3.1 trillion overstate the amount of ammunition available to defend the RMB, as $1 trillion or more of these reserves may be encumbered through forward and ...
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