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General analysis USDJPY for 16.05.2022

Current Dynamics

Japan's current account surplus decreased by 22.3%. Net profit of Japanese companies from the top list of the Tokyo Stock Exchange increased by 35.6% by the result of the year. Bank of Japan does not plan to change its monetary policy.

According to The Ministry of Finance of Japan's preliminary fiscal year 2021 fiscal year ending March 31, the current account surplus decreased by 22.3% to 12.64 trillion yen ($97.6 billion). The decrease was caused by a record rise in imports, which increased 35% to a record 87.15 trillion yen ($672 billion). Most of the growth in imports was due to higher energy prices, with the cost of purchasing liquefied natural gas up 58%. In addition, the recovery of the global economy affected the trade balance after the shutdown caused by the measures against the spread of COVID-19.

At the same time, the Japanese Ministry of Finance recorded a record 25.1% growth in exports, which reached 85.50 trillion yen ($659 billion). The supply of equipment largely influenced this for the production of chips.

It should be noted that the net profit of leading Japanese companies from the top list of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at fiscal year 2021 increased by 35.6% to 33.5 trillion yen (more than $275 billion), and the annual revenue of these companies on average grew by almost 8% to 500.4 trillion yen (about $3.9 trillion). This increase in profitability was due in large part to the weaker yen, boosting revenues of operating companies overseas when translated into local currencies.

On the back of this, Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said that the BOJ has no plans to change its monetary policy. Kuroda rejected the idea that the Bank of Japan may switch to a policy of tightening monetary policy following the example of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Kuroda also noted that Japan's economy is in the process of recovery from a major setback caused by the spread of COVID-19. The BOJ is considering keeping its current policy aimed at keeping the 10-year Japanese government bond yield near zero and leaving a space of 0.25% for a maneuver.

We can conclude that Japan is not going to change its monetary policy and the yen will continue to weaken in the near term.

Japan Producer Price Index released today was better than experts' expectations. So in year-to-year the index went up by 10% when the forecasted growth was 9.4%, and in monthly - by 1.2% when the forecasted growth was 0.8%.

Today at 08:00 (GMT+2) the machine tool orders for April will be published. Later in this day at 22:00 (GMT+2), there will be data on TIC Purchases of Long-Term Securities in the U.S. for March.

Support and resistance levels.

USD/JPY opened with a sharp move, breaking through the key Fibonacci 50 level, but failed to hold above. The current trend is upward. The RSI oscillator is near the 50 level in the lower part.

✔️ Support levels: 128.41, 127.52
✔️ Resistance levels: 128.97, 129.43, 129.88, 130.43, 131.34

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 128.97 with target 129.88 and stop-loss 128.41: Implementation Period: 2-4 days
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 128.41 with target 127.52 and stop-loss 128.97: Implementation Period: 2-4 days



Analytical department investizo.com


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

General analysis AUDUSD for 16.05.2022

Current dynamics

Today in the afternoon AUD/USD is recovering after the losses during the opening Asian session. Weak macroeconomic reports from China were the reason for the decline of the trading instrument. Traditionally Pacific Rim currencies are extremely sensitive to the conditions of the Chinese economy. The main factor influencing the AUD is the iron ore prices, which Australia supplies to Chinese industry. In addition, a slowdown in Chinese economic activity has a negative impact on the global economy and weakens investor interest in currencies with high beta coefficients. 
At the same time, China is under enormous pressure due to the new outbreak of Covid-19. Investments, the majority of which are in the Chinese industrial sector, have fallen by up to 6.8% . Industrial production fell by 2.9% and retail sales decreased by 11.1%. Investizo thus assumes that Chinese GDP will slow down in the second quarter this year, the first time since the trade wars with the USA. In such a difficult environment, the Chinese regulator continues to hold the interest rate at the current level. At the same time, a loosening of monetary policy looks appropriate, but such a measure would weaken the national currency.
Also worth noting is the growing economic risks in Australia itself. Additional pressure is formed on the backdrop of the parliamentary elections which will be held on 21 May. The ruling party, headed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, is losing popularity and, according to polls, is falling behind Labor. Australians fear a widespread crisis that has caused consumer confidence to plummet to its lowest level since August 2020. Another negative factor is the attempt of the Australian prime minister to retain his position by introducing controversial economic initiatives. Morrison wants to allow Australian citizens to use their pension savings to buy a home on the primary market. A number of opponents of the current prime minister have already called such a move economic papulism, which will lead to higher real estate prices and increase the price pressure in the economy.

Tomorrow at 03:30 (GMT+2) in Australia the minutes of the last meeting of the Australian regulator will be published. The release of the US retail sales data may also have a significant impact on the pair's dynamics tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2).Support and resistance levels


On the 4h chart the instrument is consolidating in the upper range of Bollinger Bands. The indicator has corrected sideways and the price range has contracted, indicating an imminent change in the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, holding a weak sell signal. Stochastic is approaching overbought area, sell signal may be formed within 1-2 days.
✔️ Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6840, 0.6875, 0.6915.
✔️ Resistance levels: 0.6970, 0.7045, 0.7095, 0.7160, 0.7255.

Trading scenarios

✔️ Short positions should be opened at the current price with targets 0.6845, 0.6825 and stop-loss at 0.6980. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6985 with a target of 0.7050 and a stop-loss at 0.6955. Implementation period: 1 day.






Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

General analysis Brent for 17.05.2022

Current Dynamics

Production of shale oil in the U.S. is lower than projected. Saudi Arabia intends to increase oil production. The EU failed to agree on an embargo on Russian oil. India buys 40 million barrels of Russian oil in the last 2 months.

According to the April forecast of the US Energy Department, production of shale oil in the US in May was expected to reach 8.694 mln barrels per day. However, actual production in May was 8.619 mln barrels per day, which is 0.9% less than forecasted. It is worth noting that the number of wells drilled but not completed in April decreased by 70 units compared to February and amounted to 4.223 thousand. This is due to the fact that the US shale companies are focused on returning money to investors, rather than on increasing oil production on the background of the "green" agenda promoted by D. Biden.

Meanwhile, Venezuela registered in April average level production of oil at the level of 775 thousand barrels per day, which is 47 thousand more than in March. It is worth noting that the average daily oil production in Venezuela in 2021 was 636555 barrels per day.

At the same time, other countries are planning to increase oil production. Iran has declared its desire to double the supply of crude oil to the world market, if buyers are willing. However, Tehran does not publish data on oil production and exports because it is under U.S. sanctions.

Saudi Arabia is considering to increase oil production to 13 million barrels per day by early 2027. Currently, oil production in Riyadh has increased slightly to 10.4 million bpd from 10.28 bpd a month earlier.

Meanwhile, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the EU Josep Borrell said that there are serious disagreements in the EU on the issue about embargo on Russian oil. He also said that the issue is very difficult for a number of countries, especially for such countries as Hungary, which do not have access to sea. On its part, Germany said it would refuse to import Russian oil by the end of the year, even if the EU did not agree to the issue.

At the same time, Libya's Oil and Gas Minister said that the state does not have excessive volumes to supply to the European market in order to compensate Europe for Russian oil.

Russia, in its turn, will lower the export duty on oil by $4.8 to $44.8 per ton from June, 1, which will make Russian oil even more attractive. Since February 24, 2022, Indian importers have placed orders for at least 40 million barrels from Russia. It is worth noting that for the last year India bought only 16 million barrels of oil from Russia.

It can be concluded that the growth of oil production is not fast enough for prices to start decreasing. Economic sanctions against Russia and unsolved conflicts in the north of Africa, together with "smooth " increase of oil production by OPEC+ countries may signal that the growth of Brent oil prices will continue in future.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release data on weekly U.S. crude inventories at 22:30 (GMT+2) today. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) will publish data on crude oil inventories tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2). Inventories are expected to increase by 1.533M.

Support and resistance levels.


Brent broke through a key Fibonacci level of 61.8 and then moved to consolidation. The current trend is upward. The RSI oscillator is near the 70 level.

✔️ Support levels: 110.65, 107.65,104.80,101.20, 98.75, 95.40
✔️ Resistance levels: 120.05, 114.25

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 114.25 with a target of 120.05 and a stop loss of 110.65. Implementation period: 2-4 days
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 110.65, with a target of 107.65 and a stop loss of 111.65. Implementation period: 2-4 days




Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

General analysis AUDUSD for 19.05.2022

Current trends.

Wages in Australia are rising at a record pace since 2018. However, against the backdrop of record inflation in the country, real wage growth is declining. The country's unemployment rate is unchanged, but the share of the economically active population has declined.

The published Australia Wage Price Index YoY was 2.4% while experts forecasted growth of 2.5%. Despite this, this wage growth rate is the highest since 2018. However, the country's inflation rate is also at a record high of 5.1%. This means that real wages in the country decreased by 2.7%.

At the same time, published Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board noted that the rise in core inflation will be driven by significant increases in fuel and new home prices, while real wages will not keep up with inflation.

Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development showed that third of Australians over 65 years old are at risk of falling below the poverty line.  Despite this example, the Australian Minister announced a new policy on the housing market, which will allow Australians to withdraw up to 40% or $50,000 of their pension contributions to purchase a home. However, the decision may lead to an acceleration in house prices, which will speed up inflation.

The unemployment data released today came in a little worse than analysts had predicted. Even though unemployment rate stayed at 3.9% the level of economically active population decreased to 66.3%.

The data on increase of wages and unemployment rate may not allow the RBA to act aggressively and raise the interest rate on 40 bps. With USA plans to increase interest rates by at least 50bp in the next few meetings, it may be concluded that the AUD will remain under pressure in the longer term. However, in China Shanghai cancelled a total lockdown, which may provide support to the Aussie in the short term.

Published data on Australian Unemployment Rate amounted to 3.9% as experts forecast.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be tiled today at 14:30(GMT+2). Later the same day at 16:00(GMT+2) the U.S. secondary housing market sales data for April will be released; experts expect the index to reach 5.65M.

Support and resistance levels.


AUD/USD currency pair quotes fell below the key Fibonacci level of 38.2. RSI oscillator crossed the 50 level from the bottom to the top.

✔️ Support levels: 0.6931, 0.6830.
✔️ Resistance levels: 0.7265, 0.7160, 0.7040, 0.6995

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened from the current level with a target of 0.7098 and a stop loss of 0.6931 Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.6931 with target 0.6830 and stop-loss 0.6995 Implementation period: 1-3 days





Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

General analysis AUDUSD for 23.05.2022

Current Dynamics

AUD/USD broke through the two-week high and consolidated at 0.7100 amid weakening U.S. dollar, news from the Reserve Bank of Australia and positive news on COVID-19 from China.

First of all, the correction which started at the end of last week was triggered by expectations of interest rate hike, probably even higher than expected 25bp: rising inflationary risks may result in a 40bp hike as soon as June. 

The growing appetite to risk, which traditionally affects the market with growth of securities, fall of safe haven currencies, as it happened this time with the dollar and, accordingly, growth of high-yielding currencies, which are recently NZD and AUD, had no small effect on the situation.

The market has already reacted to the news of the expected 50 bps hike of the Fed key rate in the next two sessions, but at the moment the AUD/USD rally is constrained by rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of further inflationary growth, provoking further key rate hikes.

News on the epidemiological situation in the People's Republic of China also contributed to the growth of AUD/USD. The latest easing of the covid restrictions is forming expectations for growth of the world economy, stimulates the scourge of the stock market and raises the above-mentioned global appetite for risk. But in addition to these factors, we should not forget that the Chinese economy has a key role for the "Ozzie", being the main market for Australian exports, which inevitably leads to an increase in the value of AUD/USD.

Given the remoteness of Australia from the current hotbeds of geopolitical tension, we can expect positive trends to continue in the near future. 
Support and resistance levels


Alligator is hungry: its mouth is wide open, its jaw (blue line) is low under the lips and teeth (green and red lines), the instrument is in an uptrend. The nearest fractal above the alligator’s teeth (red line) is at 0.71250. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are both in the green area, the bars are close to the zero level, which is a strong confirmatory buy signal.
Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened above the 0.71250 level with a target of 0.71440 and a stop loss of 0.71000 Realization period: 1-3 days
✔️ Short positions may be opened below the level of 0.70880 with the target of 0.70680 and stop-loss 0.71000 Period of implementation: 1-3 days




Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

General analysis GBPUSD for 24.05.2022

Current Dynamics.

White House economic advisor Brian Deese said that a recession in the U.S. is not out of the question. Joe Biden is concerned that there will be no recession. Inflation in Great Britain has reached a record high level for the last 40 years. In October, 40% of Foggy Albion families will not be able to pay their light bills.

Brian Deese, economic adviser to the White House said that the risk of recession is always there, but added that the situation in the U.S. is better than in other major countries. It is worth noting that the Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that there is no risk of recession in the United States. Along with this, at a press conference, U.S. President Joe Biden also said that there will not be a recession in the United States. According to Biden, U.S. GDP will grow rather not decline, and it will grow faster than in China for the first time in 40 years. However, he said that the U.S. is experiencing economic problems, like the rest of the world, but without such consequences as for the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, inflation in Britain reached 9% in April, the highest rate in 40 years. At the same time, the Bank of England expects inflation to peak at 10.25% in the fourth quarter of 2022. It is worth noting that according to several analysts in October 2022, 40% of families in Foggy Albion will not be able to pay for electricity. Currently, 20% of Bhutanese families are already facing this situation. At the same time, the U.K. government is allowing oil and gas extraction off the east coast of Scotland and extending the license for coal mining in South Wales. Thinks that a large number of new oil and gas fields in the North Sea that have a license, but have not yet received final approval, can be implemented without passing the "climate compatibility" tests.

Meanwhile, despite a deal to release oil from the strategic reserves, according to the American Automobile Association gasoline prices in the U.S. set a new record at $4.596 a gallon.

Against this backdrop, the U.K. Chief Secretary to the Treasury said though an emergency tax on energy companies profits has not been passed, it remains "on the table."

From the last speech of Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, it follows that the Bank of England is looking for support in a strong labor market. But labor force has shrunk by around 1% since the onset of Covid. The BoE's objective is to get inflation back to the target level and avoid so-called second round effects (when rising wages push up inflation).

From all of this it can be concluded that both countries support on a strong labor market, both countries have problems with energy resources, but the U.S. has taken a more hard-line monetary policy. It should be noted that the term "so-called second round effects" starts to appear. The current movement of GBP/USD quotes upward may be considered as the correctional movement.

The UK Composite PMI will be released today at 10:30(GMT+2).

Later in the day at 16:00(GMT+2) there will be data on new home sales in the U.S. for April. Later in the day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech at 18:20(GMT+2).

Support and resistance levels.


GBP/USD currency pair is consolidating in the zone between the key Fibonacci levels of 76.4 and 100. The RSI oscillator touched the 70 level and moved down.

✔️ Support levels: 1.2525, 1.2455, 1.2400, 1.2340, 1.2270, 1.2156
✔️ Resistance levels: 1.2595, 1.2637, 1.2760

Trading scenarios

✔️ Short positions may be opened from the current level with target 1.2455 and stop-loss 1.2637. Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.2637 with target 1.2760 and stop-loss 1.2595 Implementation period: 1-3 days




Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

General analysis NZDUSD for 25.05.2022

Current Dynamics.


The NZD/USD is surging on fresh news confirming the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) expected 50bp key rate hike and is currently wavering at 0.6500. The last time the pair traded at such level was at the beginning of May.

The central bank also released impressive estimates of further interest rate hikes in an effort to cope with steadily rising inflation. According to the plans, the rate will climb to a maximum of 3.9% in June 2023. The previous forecast for that date was 3.4%, but that rate is now expected by December 2002.



Despite the fact that the increase of the key rate always leads to the growth of the national currency quotes, the market has enough factors that can prevent the rapid growth of NZD/USD. Among them is an ambiguous situation with the appetite for risk.



On the one hand, the stock markets continue to grow consistently, unlike American treasuries, which slowed down amid negative news on housing construction, the U.S. dollar, therefore, weakens. This pattern is appropriate for a dynamic that supports investment in high-yielding currencies such as the "kiwi".



But at the same time, the collapse of hopes for a soon significant easing of the COVID-19 epidemiological restrictions in the People's Republic of China, the continuation of the lockdown until the end of the month, affects the "kiwi" not in the best way, because China is the largest importing country, consuming more than 25% of New Zealand's exports. Investors in the New Zealand dollar also have doubts about the prospects of New Zealand's strategic relationship with the United States in the context of IPEF, which is obviously anti-China, which can significantly worsen the economic relationship.



The publication of the data on April basic orders for durable goods in the United States (the expected value - 0.6%, the positive deviation from the expected one leads to the dollar's strengthening) and the protocols of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should be referred to the considerable forthcoming news able to influence the price dynamics on the NZD/USD pair. Both publications are expected during the day.

Support and resistance levels.

Alligator is hungry: its mouth is wide open, its jaw (blue line) is low under the lips and teeth (green and red lines), the instrument is in an uptrend. The nearest fractal above the alligator’s teeth (red line) is at 0,64710. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are both in the green area, which is a confirmatory buy signal.

✔️ Key levels: 0.66420, 0.65910, 0.65690, 0.65430, 0.64710

Trading scenarios

✔️ Buy limit position may be opened from the level 0.64710 with target 0.65430 and stop-loss 0.64370. Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Sell limit position may be opened from the level of 0.65430 with target 0.64710 and stop-loss 0.65690Implementation period: 1-3 days



Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

General analysis Brent for 25.05.2022

Current Dynamics

Gasoline prices in the U.S. are setting another record price. The U.S. administration is thinking about using diesel fuel from reserves. The president of Saudi Aramco is warning about a global oil crisis due to low investment. China is increasing its oil imports from Russia.

According to the American Automobile Association, which monitors fuel prices at over 60,000 gasoline stations in the US, the price of gasoline set a new record and has increased to $4.596 per gallon. Prices continue to increase despite the release of oil from strategic reserves as part of a deal with the International Energy Agency. Currently, Washington put up for sale another 40.1 million barrels of oil. In the meantime, the administration of U.S. President D. Biden is thinking of withdrawing additional diesel fuel from reserves in order to hold down prices.

In Brazil, after ignoring the government's demand not to increase prices and increase diesel fuel prices by another 8.9%, J.M. Coelho, president of Petrobras, left his post. It is worth reminding that he stayed in his post only for 40 days.

At the same time for the first time in two years, the Arab Emirates has sent about 1 million barrels of oil to Europe.

Against this background, the president of Saudi Aramco is warning about a global oil crisis due to low investment. Most companies are afraid to invest in the oil and gas sector because of the pressure of the "green agenda". Amin Hassan Nasser noted that Saudi Aramco intends to increase its oil production from 12 to 13 million barrels per day by 2027 but is hardly able to do it faster.

Meanwhile, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud said Riyadh hopes to "work out an agreement with OPEC+ that includes Russia." The minister said that against the background of uncertainty on the market it is too early to talk about the details of the new agreement, but OPEC+ will increase production if there is demand.

Meanwhile, China has increased its imports of Russian ESPO oil, which is produced in Eastern Siberia.

Gasoline and diesel prices continue to rise despite the best efforts of the countries. The removal of limitations in China due to the COVID-19 could push prices higher.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude inventories rose 0.567M while experts predicted a 0.690M decline.

Today at 16:30 (GMT+2) the Energy Information Agency (EIA) will release data on crude oil inventories. It is expected a decline of 0.737m in inventories.

Support and resistance levels.

Brent is consolidating near the key Fibonacci level of 68.8. The current trend is upward. The RSI oscillator is above the 50 level.

✔️ Support levels: 110.65,107.65,104.80,101.20, 98.75, 95.40
✔️ Resistance levels: 120.05, 114.25

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 114.25, with a target of 120.05 and stop loss of 110.65. Implementation period: 2-4 days
✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 110.65, with a target of 107.65 and stop-loss of 112.50. Implementation period: 2-4 days



Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

General analysis USDJPY for 27.05.2022

Current Dynamics.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at the BOJ-IMES 2022 conference that a global surge in inflation is one of the current challenges for central banks. U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes had no surprises.

Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that a global surge in inflation is one of the current problems for central banks. Kuroda also noted that the monetary policy response to inflation will differ between countries, although the common task for each country is to identify the size and stability of inflationary pressures. At the same time, wages increased in Japan, but the growth rate remained moderate, while household pent-up demand was limited and the recovery in aggregate demand was slower than in Europe and the US. Also, from Kuroda's statement, it follows that constraints on supply in Japan may not be as serious as those in the United States.

At the same time, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes notes that further rate increases will be appropriate. However, the Committee expects that inflation will return to its 2% objective and that the labor market will remain strong. Along with that, the committee will be ready to adjust the monetary policy stance if risks arise that could impede the achievement of the Committee's targets.

Meanwhile, Japan Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY was lower than 2% and was at 1.9%, while U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data was better than analysts' estimates and was 210K instead of 215K.

Obviously, the U.S. market is strong and Japan's inflation can't stay in the 2% level. It looks like the Fed will increase its key rate by 50bp at the next meeting, while Japan will keep its soft monetary policy, which will lead to further weakening of the yen.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Member Bullard Speaks today at 1:35 pm(GMT +2) and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index will be released a little later at 2:30 pm(GMT +2).

Support and resistance levels.


USD/JPY is a little below the key Fibonacci 100 level. The RSI oscillator is below 50.

✔️ Support levels: 126.35, 125.25
✔️ Resistance levels: 131.30, 130.30, 129.66, 129.14, 128.62, 127.98, 126.94

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions can be opened at the current level with a target of 127.98 stop loss 126.35: Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Short positions may be opened below the level of 126.35 with target 125.25 stop-loss 126.94: Implementation period: 1-3 days





Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

General analysis GBPUSD for 30.05.2022

Current dynamics

GBP/USD is consolidating at 1.26400 amid growing risk appetite.
The market, driven by the "risk-on" impulse pushed the GBP/USD quotes above 1.26500, after which the bulls somewhat cooled their enthusiasm and the pair came to consolidation around the above-mentioned level. With growing appetite for risk, traditional safe havens, in this case the U.S. dollar, are losing investments in favor of higher-yielding currencies. 
Thus, the negative macroeconomic data in the USA, expressed in the consumer price index (CPI) of over 8%, high inflation rates and intensifying price pressure, draw a high probability of economic recession, the US dollar index (DXY) continues to be at a monthly minimum. In such circumstances, it is quite difficult to imagine further increase of the FRS key rate in autumn. 
The news from the People's Republic of China also played an important role in the growth of risk appetite and the appearance of positive sentiment in the market. On June 1, the main epidemiological restrictions on COVID-19 will be canceled, and together with the end of the lockdown, the world economy will gradually start to grow.
High inflation, rising consumer price index (CPI) in the UK naturally led to another raise of the key rate by the Bank of England (BoE) by 50 bps after the Mays 25 bps. 
Among the news expected to affect the price dynamics of GBP/USD pair is the Manufacturing PMI for May, which will be released on June 1 with the expected value of 54.6, the same as the previous value for the UK, and the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for May with the projected value of 300K versus 247K for the previous period for USA.    

Support and resistance levels

Alligator is hungry: its mouth is wide open, its jaw (blue line) is low under the lips and teeth (green and red lines), the instrument is in an uptrend. The nearest fractal above the alligator’s teeth (red line) is at 1.26650. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are both in the green area, the bars are close to the zero level, which is a strong confirmatory buy signal.

✔️ Support levels: 1.25970, 1.26240
✔️ Resistance levels: 1.26650, 1.27170, 1.27730

Trading scenarios

✔️ Buy stop position may be opened from the level 1.26650 with target 1.27170 and stop-loss 1.2640. Implementation period: 2-3.
✔️ Sell stop position may be opened from the level of 1.26240 with target 1.25970 and stop-loss 1.2640Implementation period: 2-3 days.




Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.