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Date: 29th July 2025.

All Eyes on the US: FOMC, Jobs Report, Earnings and Treasury Supply Dominate a Pivotal Week.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

It’s shaping up to be one of the busiest weeks of the year for US markets, with virtually every major catalyst on the docket. From the FOMC decision and the July employment report to Treasury borrowing forecasts, corporate earnings, and key economic data releases, traders face a flood of information that could significantly sway bonds, equities, and the US dollar.

Yet, with so many variables in play, clarity may remain elusive. The overlapping crosscurrents could result in choppy and indecisive trading as investors attempt to digest the implications for monetary policy, growth, and inflation expectations heading into the final months of 2025.

Fed Expected to Hold Steady, But Watch for Dissent

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and the consensus is firmly aligned around a pause in interest rates. Policymakers have consistently characterised the US economy as resilient and the labour market as solid—two factors that continue to justify patience on rate adjustments.

However, inflation has cooled further in recent months, and concerns over slowing global demand and one-time tariff impacts have emboldened some officials. Notably, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have expressed dovish leanings, calling for a rate cut at this meeting—a position that puts them at odds with the broader committee.

While FOMC dissents from governors are rare, both Waller and Bowman have already defied consensus in recent decisions. Waller previously opposed the decision to slow quantitative tightening, and Bowman dissented in September 2024, favouring a smaller 25 bp cut instead of the 50 bp move that was implemented. If both break ranks again this week, it would mark the first dual governor dissent since 1993, underscoring the growing debate within the Fed.

Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday will be closely watched for signals on whether the central bank is preparing to shift its tone ahead of the next meeting in September. Markets are already pricing in a near 50/50 chance of a rate cut that month.

July Jobs Report in Focus as Labour Market Remains Resilient

The July nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, will be a crucial input into the Fed’s September decision. Expectations point to a 120,000 job increase, a modest gain compared to previous months but still indicative of a labour market that is not deteriorating rapidly.

Private payrolls are projected to rise by 100,000 after a 74,000 gain in June, while factory jobs are expected to hold flat following a 7,000 loss. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 4.2% from 4.1%, as the labour market adjusts to sector-specific layoffs and restructuring—particularly from companies undergoing so-called DOGE cuts, where severance packages have delayed the appearance of actual unemployment.

Wage growth is likely to continue at a moderate pace. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual rate ticking up slightly to 3.8% from 3.7%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.2 hours for a second straight month.

With another jobs report due before the September 16–17 FOMC meeting, the Fed will be watching closely to determine whether inflation remains subdued and whether labour market softness justifies a preemptive rate cut to stay ahead of a potential economic slowdown.

Markets Price in Fall Rate Cuts

Despite the expected hold this week, Fed funds futures are leaning toward a September rate cut. The October contract implies roughly 27 basis points of easing, while the December contract reflects nearly 44 bps in total cuts by year-end.

That positioning underscores investor sensitivity to Powell’s tone on Wednesday. Any signs of softening—whether in the statement, the vote tally, or during the press conference—could fuel expectations for more aggressive easing later this year.

Although the Fed has been cautious not to overcommit, the combination of slowing inflation, moderating wage growth, and global uncertainties is making the case for flexibility stronger. Powell may not open the door wide to cuts just yet, but even a small rhetorical shift could move markets.

Other Key Catalysts: GDP, ISM, PCE, and Big Tech Earnings

In addition to the Fed and labour market data, traders must also navigate a wave of critical releases. The second-quarter Advance GDP print, Employment Cost Index (ECI), PCE chain prices, and the ISM manufacturing report all offer insight into the strength of the US economy and inflation dynamics.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department is set to release Q3 and Q4 borrowing estimates, as well as details of the August refunding schedule—an event that could influence bond yields and market liquidity.

On the corporate front, earnings season continues in full swing, with Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft among the headline names reporting this week. The results from Big Tech could add volatility, especially if they reveal caution on consumer trends or AI-related capex.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Week for the Fed and Financial Markets

With the FOMC meeting, labour data, inflation indicators, Treasury supply, and earnings all on the calendar, this week could shape market direction for weeks to come. The Fed is expected to hold, but the potential for rare dovish dissents adds an element of intrigue.

As the data rolls, and Powell addresses the press, traders will be seeking any clue on whether a September rate cut is truly on the table. Until then, expect volatility, uncertainty, and plenty of positioning as markets attempt to digest a whirlwind of economic signals.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 30th July 2025.

Global Markets Mixed as US-China Trade Talks Stall, Fed Holds Rates, and Euro Retreats.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Investor Sentiment

Financial markets opened the midweek session on a cautious note as the latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in Stockholm without a definitive agreement. Both countries indicated willingness to extend the current tariff truce set to expire on August 12, but no final decision has been reached.

China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the discussions as “constructive,” noting that both sides agreed to continue working toward an extension. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the topic was discussed but emphasised that any extension still requires approval from President Donald Trump. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that although the dialogue was ‘fulsome,’ the Chinese may have ‘jumped the gun’ in announcing a pause. Strategic concerns such as China’s purchase of Iranian oil and export of dual-use technology to Russia were also raised.

Asian and US Markets React to Trade and Earnings Headwinds

Asian equities responded with mixed movements. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined marginally as losses in automakers like Toyota and Honda offset gains in tech stocks. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi posted solid gains, while Taiwan’s Taiex and India’s Sensex advanced modestly.

On Wall Street, US stock indices edged lower as traders digested corporate earnings and growing global uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%. High-profile movers included SoFi Technologies, which surged 7.4%, and UPS, which plunged 9.2% on weaker-than-expected results. Health care giant UnitedHealth Group dropped 5.8% after disappointing earnings, while Novo Nordisk shed over 21% on lowered 2025 guidance for its Wegovy weight-loss drug.

Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Inflation and Tariff Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve began its much-anticipated policy meeting with expectations firmly anchored in a decision to keep interest rates steady. Despite renewed pressure from President Trump for cuts to stimulate the economy, policymakers are expected to wait for further data on inflation and the economic impact of tariffs.

Treasury yields slipped as investors adopted a risk-off approach. A report showing a decline in US job openings added to concerns over a potential economic slowdown, though consumer confidence data remained relatively stable. Traders now await official signals from the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments.

Euro Rally Stalls After EU-US Tariff Deal

The euro, once one of the strongest-performing currencies of 2025, has started to lose momentum. After hitting a four-year high of $1.1830, it fell sharply this week following the EU's decision to impose a 15% tariff on US imports. Though less severe than President Trump’s initial threats, the new rate is a sharp increase from pre-2025 levels.

Currently trading around $1.1554, the euro is on track for its first monthly loss this year, down nearly 2% in July. Analysts note that the rally had been driven by optimism over German fiscal stimulus and weakness in the US dollar. However, with a US-EU trade agreement reducing uncertainty and strong US earnings supporting the greenback, that trend has reversed.

Bruno Schneller of Erlen Capital Management commented that the euro is facing a “reality check,” as speculative positions near record highs are now being unwound. CFTC data shows euro bullish bets have reached $18.4 billion, the highest since December 2023.



Commodities: Copper and Oil Slide as China Stimulus Lacks Detail

Commodities markets were also under pressure. Copper prices dropped 0.2% to $9,782 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, while iron ore declined by 0.9% in Singapore. Early gains were erased after a policy update from China’s Politburo failed to provide clear fiscal or monetary stimulus plans, disappointing traders who had anticipated stronger support.

The global copper market has also been rattled by the Trump administration’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1. With few details available, investors are bracing for widespread disruptions. Chile, the largest supplier of copper to the US, has requested exemptions, but US trade officials signalled that the measures would apply globally.

Meanwhile, oil prices remained relatively flat. US crude hovered at $69.20 per barrel, while Brent crude edged up to $71.70. The broader energy market remains range-bound as traders await further developments in both monetary policy and international trade.

Economic Data and Earnings to Drive Market Direction

With the Fed expected to keep rates on hold, attention is shifting to upcoming economic reports and earnings data. The US is scheduled to release the latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, along with inflation readings that will offer deeper insight into the strength of the recovery. In Europe, economic growth figures will help shape expectations for further fiscal intervention.

Investors are also awaiting any update on whether the US and China will officially extend their tariff truce, a development that could ease trade tensions and support global risk sentiment.

What Traders Should Watch This Week

As market volatility picks up, traders should monitor several key themes:

* The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference
* US jobs and inflation data
* Confirmation or collapse of the US-China tariff pause
* More Q2 earnings reports from major US corporations
* Reactions to the EU-US trade agreement
* Signals of additional stimulus from China

With global macro conditions in flux and central bank policies on pause, the coming days could define the next phase of market momentum in stocks, commodities, and currencies.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 31st July 2025.

BOJ Hints at Rate Hike with Inflation Upgrade, But Trump Tariffs Delay Clear Signal.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

BOJ Moves Closer to Tightening, But Timing Still Murky

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates steady at 0.5% during its July policy meeting but raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, signalling that the era of ultra-accommodative monetary policy may be drawing to a close.

However, Governor Kazuo Ueda and the policy board refrained from giving any guidance on the timing of the next hike, citing ‘high uncertainties’ stemming from new US trade tariffs and domestic political instability.

Inflation Forecast Raised to 2.7%: What It Means

In its quarterly economic outlook, the BOJ lifted its FY2025 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.2% and nudged up its projections for 2026 and 2027. The upgrades reflect ongoing price pressures, particularly from food and commodity imports. The BOJ’s upward revision of its price outlook does make it seem like a rate hike is coming closer. But Ueda reiterated that supply-side factors are driving inflation, suggesting policymakers are reluctant to respond with rate hikes unless wage growth and demand-driven inflation strengthen further.

Tariffs Keep Policy Outlook Cautious

A major source of uncertainty is President Trump’s new wave of tariffs, including on Japanese autos and industrial goods. While Japan reached a partial agreement with the US to reduce some levies, the BOJ is waiting to see how these measures affect exports, corporate profits, and investment.

This caution was reflected in a softened tone in the BOJ’s risk assessment, shifting from ‘extremely high’ to simply ‘high’ trade-related uncertainties.

‘There have been positive developments in trade and other policies,’ the BOJ noted, but added that more data is needed to support a rate hike.

Political Backdrop: Another Obstacle

Japan’s domestic political scene is adding further complexity. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition suffered a significant setback in the recent upper house elections. Some members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are now pushing for leadership changes, which could impact fiscal policy and BOJ coordination.

Any rate move could become politically sensitive, especially if borrowing costs rise at a time when consumer inflation is already weighing on household budgets.



Market Reaction: Yen, Bonds, and Global Spillovers

The yen initially rallied following the announcement, but lost ground as Ueda failed to provide forward guidance on rates. USDJPY remains near the psychologically important 150 level.

Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields have inched higher, with the 10-year yield approaching 1%, spilling over into global bond markets. US Treasuries also saw upward pressure after Powell’s hawkish tone, tightening financial conditions worldwide.

What’s Next? Eyes on December

While the BOJ appears to be preparing the ground for a year-end rate hike, the central bank is signalling that it will not move prematurely. The next few months will be critical as officials monitor wage growth, trade developments, and domestic demand. It is expected that the BOJ will act by December if growth holds up and the tariff impact is manageable.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th August 2025.

Markets Rebound as Earnings Roll In, Dollar Stabilises Amid Rate Cut Bets and Tariff Concerns.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

US stock futures edged higher on Tuesday, signalling a more stable open on Wall Street following last week’s turbulence and ahead of a crucial wave of corporate earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.3%.

The recovery momentum continued from Monday, when stocks bounced back sharply after a volatile Friday. The rally came despite lingering concerns over a weak US jobs report, fresh tariff threats from the White House, signs of persistent inflation, and the surprise dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Adding to the uncertainty, President Trump warned of potential tariff hikes on India, further unsettling global trade dynamics.

Investors now turn their attention to a heavy earnings calendar, with AMD and Rivian reporting Tuesday, followed by McDonald's, Disney, Uber, Snap, Palantir, and others later this week. Palantir shares surged in after-hours trading after the company topped earnings expectations and reported over $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time.

Despite the uncertainty, second-quarter earnings have largely surprised to the upside. According to FactSet, with 66% of S&P 500 companies having reported, average earnings per share are now expected to rise 10.3%, more than double the initial 5% forecast. Companies benefited from lowered expectations amid concerns about tariffs, high valuations, and economic headwinds.

Several notable companies contributed to the rebound. Idexx Laboratories spiked 27.5% on better-than-expected results, while Tyson Foods rose 2.4% after beating profit forecasts. Wayfair gained 12.7% on accelerating growth, and Tesla added 2.2% following the approval of a massive restricted stock award to CEO Elon Musk, calming fears he might exit the company. On the downside, Berkshire Hathaway fell nearly 3% after reporting lower profits tied in part to a loss in its Kraft Heinz investment.

Asian Markets Track US Gains; Oil and Commodities Stable

Asian equities joined the global rally, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.6%, South Korea’s Kospi gaining 1.4%, and Shanghai’s Composite Index rising 0.5%. The Hang Seng added 0.3%, while Australia’s ASX 200 and Thailand’s SET both climbed 1.1%. India’s Sensex, however, dropped 0.5% as tensions with the US over Russian oil imports escalated.

Dollar Finds Stability as Fed Cut Expectations Climb

Meanwhile, the US dollar found its footing, rising 0.2% after last week’s sharp selloff triggered by soft jobs data and political upheaval. Traders are now weighing whether the increased likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts could help support risk appetite and offset the drag from new tariffs.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 92.1% chance the Fed will cut rates at its September meeting, up from 63% a week ago. Goldman Sachs expects three straight 25-basis-point cuts starting next month, and sees a 50-basis-point move as possible if unemployment rises further. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed the growing urgency, stating, ‘I was willing to wait another cycle, but I can't wait forever.’

Despite July marking the dollar’s first monthly gain this year, analysts remain cautious. Citi economists noted that USD/Asia is sitting in a ‘fragile equilibrium’ amid uncertainty about US economic resilience. Conversations with clients, they said, reveal many are questioning whether the narrative of US exceptionalism still holds true.

The dollar index hovered around 98.816, recovering from a one-week low. The euro traded at $1.1559, down 0.12%, while sterling stood at $1.328. The yen was flat at 147.10 after the Bank of Japan signalled a potential return to rate hikes if global trade tensions ease. The Swiss franc extended losses, down 0.2% to 0.8092, as Switzerland seeks to negotiate a deal to avoid a 39% US tariff that could severely hit its export-heavy economy.

A quick adjustment in supply chains is widely expected, but it might take 6 to 12 months to know who wins and who loses. Also, the ongoing weakness for the greenback could continue.

Other currencies saw minor moves:

* The Australian dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6466
* The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.1% to $0.5893

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th August 2025.

Global Markets Struggle for Direction Amid Tariffs, Fed Expectations, and Weak Jobs Data.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Wall Street Ends Mixed as Economic Signals Remain Conflicted

Global markets endured another hesitant session on Thursday, with investors balancing disappointing U.S. labour data, central bank actions, and renewed trade tensions. Last week’s weak jobs report and an increase in unemployment claims reinforced expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance in the months ahead.

Bond market sentiment turned bearish after a poor 30-year Treasury auction capped a weak August refunding, while a hawkish interest rate cut from the Bank of England earlier in the day also weighed on confidence. An unexpected rise in U.S. productivity provided only a modest lift. Meanwhile, reciprocal tariffs went into effect at various levels, keeping trade policy firmly in focus.

Apple’s announcement of a significant U.S. manufacturing investment helped Wall Street open with moderate gains, but momentum faded as dip-buying interest cooled. By the close, the NASDAQ finished 0.35% higher—well off session peaks—while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.08%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) eased 1.25% to 16.56, and Treasuries ended mixed.

Asian Markets Mixed; Nikkei Nears Record High

In Asia, Friday’s trading was mixed. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.2% to 41,977.65, approaching record highs, after Japan confirmed it had resolved a dispute with Washington over tariffs on Japanese goods. The duties, implemented Thursday, initially exceeded the agreed 15% level, but Japan’s chief trade envoy confirmed the U.S. had agreed to make the necessary adjustment. Automakers were among the top performers, with Toyota Motor Corp. rising 3.9% and Honda Motor Co. gaining 4%.

Elsewhere, sentiment was softer. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.7% to 24,916.15, the Shanghai Composite Index edged up less than 0.1% to 3,642.10, South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.7% to 3,206.86, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2% to 8,813.70. Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.2%, while India’s Sensex fell 0.5%. Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management described market momentum as unpredictable, warning that early-week trends can reverse sharply by Friday.

Tech Sector Gains Offset by Intel Troubles

Technology stocks provided the strongest lift in the U.S. session. Apple rose 3.2% after CEO Tim Cook joined President Donald Trump at the White House to announce an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years. Semiconductor stocks also advanced after Trump imposed 100% tariffs on imported chips but promised exemptions for companies with substantial U.S. operations. Advanced Micro Devices surged 5.7%, while Nvidia added 0.8%.

Intel, however, fell 3.1% after Trump demanded the immediate resignation of CEO Lip-Bu Tan, accusing him of being “highly conflicted” due to his ties with Chinese firms. Tan responded by confirming that Intel is in active talks with the U.S. administration to address concerns and ensure accurate information is provided, while reaffirming the company’s focus on turning around its struggling operations.



Oil Prices Head for Steepest Weekly Losses Since June

Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Friday but were poised for their sharpest weekly declines since late June. Brent crude futures dipped three cents to $66.40 a barrel at 0050 GMT, on track to fall more than 4% for the week, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped six cents to $63.82, set for a weekly loss of over 5%.

ANZ Bank analysts warned that the latest U.S. tariffs, which came into force Thursday, have raised fears of slower global economic growth and reduced oil demand. Prices were already under pressure after OPEC+ announced last weekend that it would fully unwind its largest tranche of output cuts in September, months ahead of schedule. WTI futures have now fallen for six consecutive sessions, matching a losing streak last seen in December 2023. A decline on Friday would mark the longest streak since August 2021.

Geopolitical Developments Add to Market Uncertainty

The Kremlin confirmed on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming days, fueling speculation of a potential diplomatic breakthrough in the war in Ukraine. The U.S. also imposed new tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian crude oil, though analysts at StoneX noted the measures are unlikely to significantly disrupt Russian oil flows to global markets. Trump also indicated that China, the largest buyer of Russian crude, could face similar tariffs.

Currency Market Moves

In currency trading, the U.S. dollar edged up to 147.16 yen from 147.13, while the euro eased to $1.1660 from $1.1667. With trade disputes intensifying, central banks adjusting policy, and commodity markets under pressure, volatility remains a defining feature of the current global market landscape.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th August 2025.

USDJPY Analysis: Yen Weakens Amid US Tariff Pressure and BOJ Policy Signals.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The USDJPY currency pair has been in the spotlight after the Japanese Yen weakened against the US Dollar. This movement was triggered by several key factors that are currently attracting market attention. On Friday, USDJPY strengthened by +0.39%, indicating selling pressure on the Yen. The main concerns driving this weakening are the potential impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy, as well as less than satisfactory domestic economic data.

Factors Driving Yen Weakening

Weaker Japanese Economic Data - Japanese household spending data for June, which only rose +1.3% (y/y), far below market expectations of +2.7%, sent a dovish signal. This figure suggests that Japanese consumers are holding back, likely due to US tariff pressure and rising inflation. This situation reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates soon.

Rising US Bond Yields - Higher US government bond yields on Friday made the US dollar more attractive to investors. This increase negatively impacted the yen, known as a safe-haven currency.

Hawkish Sentiment from BOJ Meeting: Hope Amid Challenges

Nevertheless, there are several signals that could potentially be positive catalysts for the yen in the long term.

Slightly Hawkish BOJ Meeting Minutes - The minutes of the July 30-31 BOJ meeting showed differences of opinion among board members. Some suggested gradual interest rate hikes to anticipate future inflationary pressures. One member even hinted at the possibility of a rate hike as early as late 2025, depending on the impact of US tariffs.

Positive Signals from Economic Surveys - The EcoWatchers Japan Outlook Survey rose to 47.3 in July, reaching a six-month high. This reading was stronger than expected, indicating optimism among economic observers. This positive signal could be a bullish boost for the Yen.

USDJPY Technical Analysis: Towards Key Levels

Technically, the USDJPY is in a corrective phase. The significant rise from the 2021 low (102.58) towards the 2024 high (161.94) is seen as the main trend.


USDJPY

Oil Prices Head for Steepest Weekly Losses Since June

Key Upside Level: If USDJPY manages to break through minor resistance at 148.07, the market will likely retest the high of 150.91, or the 61.8%FR level. A rise above this level would open the opportunity for a continuation of the bullish trend to higher levels.

Key Downside Level: On the other hand, key support is at 145.84. A breach of this level could signal a short-term bearish reversal, with the next support target at 142.66.

For next week, the Yen's movement will likely be influenced by external data given the relatively quiet Japanese economic calendar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th August 2025.

Investors Flock to Riskier Assets After Soft US Inflation Data.


Investors Flock to Riskier Assets After Soft US Inflation Data

US Dollar Retreats as Markets Price in Fed Rate Cuts
Global investors have moved into higher-risk assets after US inflation data came in softer than expected, easing stagflation fears and pushing the US dollar (USDindex) lower. The USDIndex dropped reflecting expectations of a near-certain 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September. Some traders are even speculating on a larger reduction as markets reassess monetary policy.







2025-08-13_14-23-19




The USDIndex has fallen 0.4% so far today to 97.72, marking its second consecutive day of declines after headline CPI data eased concerns about persistent inflation. Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next month, with some traders even speculating on a larger, 50-basis-point move. The drop in yields and dovish shift in rate expectations have weighed on the greenback, prompting broad gains in other major currencies: EURUSD has risen to 1.1700, GBPUSD is trading at 1.3570, and USDJPY has eased to 147.41. Oil prices corrected as markets focus on the supply outlook, and the front end WTI contract is down -0.8% at USD 62.66 per barrel. Gold benefited from the decline in rates and is trading at $3362.70 per ounce - a gain of 0.4%.



The dollar’s retreat was further reinforced by Tuesday’s broad market optimism. Lower inflation reduced stagflation fears, supporting a shift into riskier assets — from equities to cryptocurrencies — while haven flows into the dollar and gold moderated.







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Equities Soar on Inflation Optimism and Strong Earnings
US equity markets are riding a wave of optimism. The S&P 500 has hit fresh record highs, buoyed by resilient corporate earnings and the prospect of looser monetary policy. The index is up almost 30% since April’s trade shock sell-off and 12% since Trump’s election in November. Small-cap stocks, measured by the Russell 2000, are on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains, showing a broad-based recovery beyond large-cap tech.



Tech stocks are leading the charge. The “Magnificent Seven,” including Nvidia and Microsoft, have climbed nearly 50% since April, reversing earlier losses and benefiting from renewed interest in artificial intelligence. Megacap tech alone contributed roughly 90% of S&P 500 profit growth in Q2, according to Deutsche Bank strategists.







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Volatility indicators underscore market confidence. The VIX is at its lowest since December, while bond market volatility, measured by the MOVE Index, is at levels not seen since 2022. FX implied volatility is also at a one-year low, highlighting strong investor appetite for risk.



Commodities and Cryptocurrencies Gain Support
The risk-on sentiment has extended to commodities and alternative assets. Gold gained 0.6% to $1,366 per ounce, supported by weaker US dollar and declining bond yields. Silver rose 1.8%, and oil prices corrected slightly after the US API reported higher crude inventories, signaling that the summer demand peak may be fading. Cryptocurrencies have also rebounded, with Ether up 55% over the past month and meme stocks regaining popularity.



Fed Policy and Market Outlook
While markets lean heavily toward near-term easing, the Federal Reserve remains divided. Fed Schmid, a voting member, described policy as “appropriately calibrated” but remains vigilant for signs of weakening demand. Futures markets are pricing in additional rate cuts, while traders await the Jackson Hole symposium for further guidance on monetary policy. Still, futures markets are discounting -23 bps for September, -60 bps by December, and -127 bps in cuts by end-2026.



Political pressure is also intensifying. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to push for immediate rate cuts and criticized Fed Chair Powell, adding a political dimension to market uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that the Fed should remain open to a larger cut next month.



Conclusion
The combination of softer US inflation data, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and resilient earnings has fueled a wave of optimism in global markets. Traders are rotating into equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, while the US dollar remains under pressure. While risks from geopolitical tensions and rising yields persist, investor confidence remains high, setting the tone for continued market rallies in the near term. For now the confidence that soft inflation and resilient growth will keep risk appetite alive, at least until the September decision forces the next big rethink.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th August 2025.

Producer Inflation Hits 2-Year High, Fed Still Seen Cutting.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The US Producer Price Inflation rises to its highest level since April 2022 triggering a sudden decline in stocks. Consumer inflation previously came in lower than expected. Economists still expect a rate cut in September 2025, so investors re-entered at the lower price. Due to this the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500 are all trading higher. A big factor of the day's fundamental analysis will be the Russia-US talks in Alaska.

NASDAQ Regains Losses But Trails Behind

The NASDAQ has been the best performing US index of 2025 and the previous years. However, since the Producer Price Index, the NASDAQ is struggling. The NASDAQ is still trading higher than the decline triggered by yesterday’s PPI but weaker than the SNP500 and Dow Jones.

Prior to the PPI announcement the NASDAQ’s performance in 2025 was trading 5% higher than the SNP500 and 10% higher than the Dow Jones. The NASDAQ is also exposed to markets outside of the technology sector. As a result, investors are opting to invest in the SNP500 and Dow Jones which are known to be less risky and have a lower possibility of being overbought.

Nonetheless, all indices are being positively influenced by the Federal Reserve’s potential move to cut interest rates and today’s meeting between President Trump and President Putin. If the meeting bears fruit, the market sentiment is likely to continue rising. Currently, on Friday 15th, 44% of the most influential stocks are increasing in value, which is relatively low. However, Amazon, Microsoft and NVIDIA are trading higher, supporting the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500.

Dow Jones and SNP500 Outperform The NASDAQ

The Dow Jones is trading 0.76% higher and the SNP500 0.24%. The Dow Jones is performing particularly well as investors believe the index may be trading below its intrinsic value and due to its exposure to defensive stocks. The USA30 is now trading at an all-time high and higher than the resistance levels which can be seen from earlier in the year and 2024.

However, the price will largely depend on the outcome of today’s meeting between President Putin and President Trump as well as the follow up meeting with Ukraine’s leader Zelensky. In addition to this, the release of NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report will also be vital to all US indices.

Lastly, Warren Buffet is known to have recently purchased stocks within the Dow Jones which have declined in 2025. Mr Buffet is known to purchase stocks which are trading below their true value.


Dow Jones 30-Minutes Chart

The US, Federal Reserve And Inflation.

Weekly labor market data showed Initial Jobless Claims at 224,000, slightly below forecasts and the prior reading, while Continuing Claims fell to 1.953 million. Despite the weekly improvement, the broader labor market remains under pressure according to economists. However, this is not necessarily being shown in the actual data. As of yet, the NFP reading is not triggering any alarm bells, but is known as a lagging indicator.

July wholesale inflation surged, with PPI up 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, far above estimates. Core PPI matched the same gains. The data signal rising inflation risks and lessen chances of near-term Fed easing, though Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee still sees scope for policy softening this fall. Mr Goolsbee told journalists, the risks to employment is a particular concern for him.

Key Takeaway Points:

* US Producer Price Inflation hits highest since April 2022, triggering a sudden stock market drop.
* NASDAQ underperforms SNP500 and Dow after PPI data despite strong 2025 gains.
* Dow Jones reaches all-time high on defensive stock exposure and perceived undervaluation.
* Rising PPI reduces odds of near-term Fed easing despite some officials still favoring policy softening.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.