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Date: 19th February 2025.

Is the DAX Overbought After Rising For 7 Weeks Straight?


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The DAX rose by 20% in 2024, however, in 2025 so far the DAX has risen more than 15% in only 50 days. The DAX has risen for seven straight weeks, driven by rate cuts and strong earnings reports. Can the DAX maintain momentum or is the price overbought?

DAX 40 - What’s Driving the Bullish Trend?

Three factors are driving the price of the DAX higher. The first is the European Central Bank which has cut for 2 consecutive months and is likely to adjust a further 0.75% in 2025. The lower interest rates and expectations of further cuts are known to support the DAX due to higher consumer demand.



The second factor driving prices higher are the positive earnings data. SAP SE is the most influential stock and has risen by 18% so far this year. SAP’s latest quarterly earnings report saw the company beat revenue expectations by 2.60% and earnings by 1.40%. The second most influential stock for the DAX is Siemens AG which has risen almost 20% in 2025 so far. All of the seven most influential stocks have risen in value this year so far and only 17% of the whole DAX have declined this year so far. However, traders should note that not all companies within the DAX have made public their quarterly earnings reports.

The third factor is the expectation that the Ukraine-Russia conflict will end or reach a ceasefire in the first half of the year. Traders should note that an end to the conflict is more crucial for European indices in comparison to Asian or US indices. This is due to the nature of Europe and European geopolitics.

Is the German DAX Overbought?

When analyzing the price movement the index is trading in the overbought zone on most oscillators and on most timeframes. However, price action and previous impulse waves indicate the price will not be overbought unless the price increases above 23,250EUR. However, the intrinsic value of the DAX will also depend on US tariffs.

If Germany is able to avoid harsh US tariffs, German stocks may continue to increase higher as sentiment improves. However, harsh tariffs are likely to apply downward pressure on the index and increase the likelihood of being overbought in the short-to-medium term.

If the price indeed declines, traders may first target the support level at $22,437.58, which will likely fall in line with the 75-period Moving Average. The main bullish breakout point is at the 22,724.30 mark.

Tariffs on Foreign Cars

A key risk for the DAX as mentioned above is US tariffs, particularly on cars. The DAX index includes Mercedes-Benz, Porsche AG, BMW, and Volkswagen. Total new cars sales in the US from these 4 companies make up almost 10% of the overall sales.



Donald Trump remained defiant despite warnings that his proposed trade war could disrupt the US economy, stating that his administration might impose tariffs of approximately 25% on foreign cars within weeks. He also announced that semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals would soon face higher tariffs, speaking at a news conference on Tuesday.

Key Takeaway Points:

* The DAX has surged over 15% in 2025, driven by ECB rate cuts, strong earnings, and optimism over the Ukraine conflict.
* SAP SE and Siemens AG are the top-performing stocks and 83% of the DAX has witnessed gains. However, some earnings reports are still pending.
* Despite trading in overbought territory, the index may continue rising unless it faces harsh US tariffs.
* Potential US tariffs on foreign cars pose a key risk, impacting major DAX-listed car makers. This includes Mercedes-Benz, Porsche AG, BMW, and Volkswagen.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th February 2025.

The Yen Continues To Rebound, Investors Boost Bets Of Rate Hikes


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The Japanese Yen significantly increases in value against all currencies and the JPY Index is trading at a 2-month high. The primary factor supporting the Japanese Yen is the growing expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, along with its safe-haven appeal.

Will the JPY be the best-performing currency of 2025?

DAX 40 - What’s Driving the Bullish Trend?

The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency of the year increasing by 4.20% so far. The second best-performing currency is the Australian Dollar which has risen 2.83% and the New Zealand Dollar which is up 2.20%. Here we can see the momentum of the JPY in 2025.

The main supporting factors are the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes, expectations of further hikes and the currency’s safe haven characteristics. Investors were also quick to consider increasing their exposure to the Japanese Yen as the currency was trading at a price 33% lower than in 2022.

The Bank of Japan over the past months has taken interest rates to a 17-year high. Currently, investors believe the Bank of Japan will adjust its main rate by a further 50 basis points to 1.00%. This would take the BoJ’s rate to the highest since 1995. Meanwhile, this week the Bank of Japan Governor Mr Takata stated that the central bank should further increase interest rates, warning that maintaining the current levels might cause the public to become too accustomed to the risks of rising prices and accelerating inflation. The Bank of Japan’s next interest rate decision will be on March 19th.

One of the key concerns for the Bank of Japan is the country’s inflation rate which has risen to 3.6%. Inflation is currently at its highest level since January 2023. Another key influential factor is potential tariffs not only on Japan but also on the main global economies. In 2018, when tariffs were previously introduced, the Japanese Yen rose in value due to its safe haven nature. However, traders will evaluate upcoming tariffs and its domino effect on the Japanese Yen day by day.

The US Dollar and Its Risks To The Japanese Yen

The US Dollar continues to struggle in February 2025, however, fundamental factors continue to indicate the currency can rebound. Traders should note that a strong US Dollar can have a negative effect on the Japanese Yen. Market optimism is bolstered by the Senate's confirmation of financier Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce. A former Cantor Fitzgerald director and supporter of Donald Trump’s trade policies, Lutnick has dismissed concerns that high tariffs fuel inflation and advocates for stronger sanctions to reduce export barriers. His appointment raises the risk of strained US trade relations.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the need for restrictive monetary policy until inflation slows, citing economic and labour market stability. The Federal Reserve seeks ‘further progress on inflation’ before cutting rates, according to FOMC Meeting Minutes. Some members of the committee suggested a limited need for further reductions. Meanwhile, economists advise the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest rates unless inflation falls to at least 2.7%.

USDJPY - Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index is currently trading 0.16% lower ensuring there are no current conflicts while the Japanese Yen is increasing in value. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading comfortably lower and below all major Moving Averages. The USDJPY is also trading below 30 on the Relative Strength Index again indicating sellers are driving the price lower.



However, traders will be cautious the price action does not change as the Asian session comes to an end. Currently, the price has retraced upwards as the close edges nearer. Bearish momentum will need to be regained in order for sell signals to again materialize. The price movement will also depend on today's US news releases.

Key Takeaway Points:

* Japanese Yen Strength – The JPY is the best-performing currency of 2025 so far, gaining 4.20%, driven by expectations of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes and its safe-haven appeal.
* Japanese Inflation - Japan’s inflation rate which has risen to 3.6%. Inflation is currently at its highest level since January 2023
* Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy – The BoJ has raised rates to a 17-year high and may hike further by 50 basis points to 1.00%, the highest level since 1995.
* US Dollar Influence – A stronger US Dollar could pressure the Yen. The Fed is maintaining a restrictive policy, and rate cuts are unlikely unless inflation falls to at least 2.7%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st February 2025.

European PMI Disappoint, Weighing on Euro Before German Elections


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The Euro is the first currency to witness the volatility on this month’s PMI reports. The French, German and British PMI data have resulted in the Euro being the worst-performing currency of the European Session so far. However, will the Euro continue to decline throughout the day?

European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes

The French Purchasing Managers Index was the first European index to be made public. The release resulted in the Euro instantly declining 0.24%. The main concern from the French data was the Services PMI which fell from 48.2 to 44.5. Previously the market was expecting the data to remain more or less unchanged. The weak data triggered the decline which came to a halt after Germany’s PMI was released.



The German Manufacturing PMI read 0.5 points higher than previous expectations and the Services PMI was 0.2 points lower. The data from Germany was a relief for Euro investors and the price rose 0.12% higher. However, traders should note that the price of the EURUSD continues to remain 0.20% lower than yesterday’s close.

The price of the EURUSD will now depend on the PMI data from the US. The value of the US Dollar will depend on its PMI release this afternoon and the Consumer Sentiment Index. Analysts expect both the US Services and Manufacturing PMI data to remain above the 50.00 level in the expansion zone.

German Elections 2 Days Away

Germany is set to hold a general election this Sunday, February 23rd, following the collapse of the coalition of social democrats, liberals, and greens. Given the country's highly proportional electoral system, German polls provide a strong indication of potential government formations post-election. The main concern for Germany is the AFD party who are Far-Right Nationalists.

Currently, ahead in the polls are CDU (centre-right), and AFD (far right), followed by the SPD (centre-left). Traders should note that the results of the elections are likely to trigger strong volatility on Monday, but also influence volatility today. Economists may become further concerned if the far-right gains power for the first time due to uncertainty. If the government, similar to France, is unable to form a coalition, this would also be a concern for the Eurozone.

Furthermore, the Euro this week is also under pressure from comments from members of the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said to journalists that officials need not slow interest rate cuts, as January's 2.5% inflation is still expected to reach the 2.0% target this year. He also advised the European economy is weaker than previously expected.

EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators

The EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and 100-bar Simple Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. However, the price is moving away from the key resistance level at 1.05058 indicating the price is losing momentum. The short-term volatility is indicating the price is retracing downwards. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is trading below the 200-bar SMA and is also forming clear lower lows and highs.

Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index is trading above the 200-bar SMA on the 5-minute chart confirming no current conflicts. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day attempting to regain losses from the past 2 weeks. Watch today’s Live Analysis Session for more signals as they develop!

Key Takeaway Points:

* Weak French Services PMI triggered an initial Euro decline, but German PMI provide a slight relief. However, EURUSD remains lower than yesterday’s close.
* The Euro’s direction now depends on the US PMI reports, with analysts expecting US data to stay in expansion territory.
* Sunday's German election could drive volatility, especially if the far-right AFD gains power or if coalition formation proves difficult.
* ECB official Fabio Panetta suggested no need to slow rate cuts, citing weaker-than-expected economic performance and expected inflation decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th February 2025.

German Markets Surge as Friedrich Merz Set To Be Chancellor, Euro Gains on Fiscal Shift.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

* Germany’s stock index futures and the euro rallied after opposition leader Friedrich Merz secured victory.
* Investors expect a shift toward increased government spending.
* US-China trade tensions rise as Trump tightens restrictions on Chinese investments.
* AI optimism fuels Chinese tech stocks despite regulatory concerns.
* Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday is expected to impact market volatility.

German Markets React to Election Results

Germany’s stock market and currency experienced a sharp rally in Asian trading after conservative leader Friedrich Merz won the country’s federal election. This victory aligns with pre-election polls and signals a potential departure from Germany’s traditionally strict fiscal policies.

Futures tied to the DAX Index surged as much as 1.5% on Monday, recovering from early losses in a session marked by thin trading volume. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened against most major currencies, climbing 0.7% against the U.S. dollar.

Market analysts believe Merz’s leadership could mark the end of Germany’s tight fiscal stance, with expectations that his administration will prioritize economic stimulus. This shift comes at a critical time, as Europe’s largest economy grapples with sluggish growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and the threat of a global trade war under U.S. President Donald Trump.

"Political stability and increased fiscal spending are key market drivers following the election," said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin.
The euro’s strength also reflects optimism that Merz will form a government quickly, which wasn’t a widely held expectation before the election.

"If Merz successfully builds a stable coalition, EURUSD could move toward 1.06," noted David Forrester, senior foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Agricole CIB Singapore.



US-China Trade Tensions Intensify

While European markets gained, US-China trade tensions escalated as Trump ordered stricter regulations on Chinese investments in key sectors, including technology, energy, and infrastructure. The move is part of a broader strategy to limit China’s influence in strategic industries. Although not legally binding, the directive strengthens oversight by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a panel responsible for reviewing foreign acquisitions. JPMorgan strategists warned that this decision could reverse gains in Chinese tech stocks, which had rallied earlier in the year.

Despite geopolitical headwinds, Chinese technology stocks have posted strong gains this year, largely driven by optimism in artificial intelligence (AI) and key policy shifts. The market remains under-owned by global investors, suggesting potential for further capital inflows. The growing AI industry has helped offset risks from US tariffs, with investor sentiment remaining bullish on leading Chinese firms like Alibaba and Tencent.

Chinese officials reacted strongly, with Vice Premier He Lifeng raising concerns about Trump’s recent 10% tariff hike on Chinese goods in a call with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Additionally, sources revealed that Trump’s administration urged Mexico to impose tariffs on Chinese imports as part of broader trade negotiations.

Despite these challenges, investor focus remains on Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, a key event that could drive market volatility.

Gold Nears Record Highs on Inflation and Central Bank Demand

Gold prices held near $2,940 an ounce, just shy of last week’s record, as ETF inflows surged and the US dollar weakened. The precious metal is on its longest winning streak since 2020, fueled by rising inflation expectations and mounting geopolitical uncertainties under Trump’s administration.

Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target to $3,100, citing strong central-bank demand and increased ETF holdings.
Lower US Treasury yields have also boosted bullion’s appeal, with traders now expecting the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in July rather than September. Markets will closely watch Friday’s inflation data, a key indicator for Fed policy direction.

Final Thoughts

Markets are reacting to a mix of political and economic shifts, with Germany’s election outcome boosting European equities while US-China trade tensions create uncertainty for Asian markets. Investors will be closely monitoring fiscal policy changes in Germany, Nvidia’s earnings, and further trade developments for insights into market direction.

For more financial market insights and updates, stay tuned.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th February 2025.

Markets on Edge as Trump’s Tariff Plans Shake Global Trade and Investor Sentiment.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Financial markets continue to experience heightened volatility as US President Donald Trump reaffirms plans to impose tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, a move expected to take effect next week. However, scepticism remains, as such tariffs on essential goods like propane and avocados would have an immediate and visible impact on US consumers. Current polls indicate only 32% of American voters approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, adding further uncertainty to market sentiment.

President Donald Trump announced a one-month delay on tariff hikes for Canadian and Mexican imports, further escalating tensions. Additionally, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports linked to fentanyl production has heightened trade concerns. Market sentiment has been impacted, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropping by 10% in the past month due to fears over inflation and tariffs.

Asian Markets and US-China Tensions

Asian markets suffered significant declines, particularly in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, as Trump’s new directives on curbing Chinese investments raised concerns. His administration is also pushing for stricter semiconductor export controls, a move that could further strain US-China relations. The latest measures include discussions with Japan and the Netherlands to limit maintenance support for semiconductor equipment used in China.

Despite initial losses, Chinese technology stocks rebounded, with mainland investors injecting over $1 billion into Hong Kong stocks. This underscores Beijing’s commitment to achieving technological self-sufficiency, a priority for President Xi Jinping in the ongoing tech rivalry with the U.S. While Chinese internet giants had recently enjoyed a rally, Trump’s renewed restrictions introduced fresh geopolitical risks, weighing on investor confidence.

US Stock Market Struggles Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Stocks declined, and US Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over two months as concerns mounted over Trump’s tariff plans and investment restrictions on China. European equity index futures pointed to a weaker open following a selloff in US stocks. Meanwhile, Chinese shares experienced whipsaw movements, and the Dollar weakened for a second consecutive day. With only a month into his presidency, investors are increasingly cautious about Trump’s policies and their potential impact on economic growth. This uncertainty has driven a flight to safe-haven assets, with gold surging 12% since the start of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials have reiterated their stance of maintaining current interest rates, citing persistent inflationary pressures.

US stocks continued to slide on Monday following last week’s sharp losses. The S&P 500 dipped 0.5% to 5,983.25, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% to 19,286.92. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.1% to 43,461.21. Berkshire Hathaway climbed 4.1% after reporting strong operating profits, yet Warren Buffett’s firm remains cautious, holding $334.2 billion in unused cash. Starbucks gained 1.3% after announcing 1,100 corporate job cuts to streamline operations under CEO Brian Niccol.

In Japan, trading houses saw a surge in stock prices after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway signalled plans to increase its holdings. Mitsubishi Corp. led the rally, climbing 9.2%—its biggest gain in a year—while Marubeni Corp. and Mitsui & Co. also posted strong advances. Buffett’s interest in Japanese trading houses underscores their diversification across industries, making them resilient to market fluctuations.

Nvidia’s Earnings and AI Market Disruptions

Nvidia, a major driver of the AI boom, is set to release earnings on Wednesday. The market is watching closely after China’s DeepSeek announced an AI model that rivals US technology without requiring high-end chips. This development has sparked concerns about demand for AI-related infrastructure, causing Nvidia shares to drop 3.1%, weighing on the S&P 500.



Commodities and Corporate Movements

The commodity sector also faced significant developments, particularly in the cobalt market. A surprise four-month export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s largest cobalt producer, sent shockwaves through the industry. The move aims to curb global oversupply, but it has also raised concerns about supply chain disruptions in the battery and alloy industries.

Gold Prices Retreat as Investors Take Profits

Gold prices eased after hitting fresh record highs, as investors took profits amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and growing haven demand. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,937.65 per ounce. Gold-backed ETFs saw their largest net inflows since 2022, fueled by market uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and economic outlook. Lower Treasury yields also contributed to gold’s strength after a well-received two-year note auction. Analysts from ANZ Banking Group noted increasing physical flows into gold ETFs as investors seek safe-haven assets.

US crude oil gained 52 cents to $71.22 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 0.7% to $74.75 per barrel. In currency markets, the US dollar weakened slightly against the Japanese yen at 149.50, while the Euro strengthened to $1.0473. Bitcoin, often viewed as a “Trump trade,” also slid amid the uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 04th March 2025.

Tariffs and OPEC+ Drive Oil Prices Lower.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Crude Oil prices fell 0.70% on Tuesday declining closer to the asset’s main support level. OPEC’s latest announcement has been one of the main drivers of lower prices. OPEC, which produces 40% of the world’s Crude Oil, surprisingly has increased oil production. However, other economic factors are also triggering a lower demand.

OPEC Increases Supply Pressuring Prices

OPEC+ confirms it will increase production and market output in 2025 despite prices declining for six consecutive weeks. The move from OPEC is primarily driven by pressure from the US administration to not purposely look to lower production in order to keep prices high.

OPEC+ will boost oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, causing crude prices to drop. The move has become possible with Russia expecting the Ukraine-Russia conflict to end in 2025 and the US’s more favourable approach towards Russia and Saudi Arabia. This marks the first of several monthly increases, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026 after a two-year pause.

The higher output will increase supply and can significantly change the balance between supply and demand. As a result, Crude Oil prices have fallen, particularly as economic data globally has taken a hit over the past month. Over the past six weeks, Crude Oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. However, the move by OPEC is related solely to the supply within the market. Simultaneously, trade wars are also worrying traders about how demand may change in the upcoming months.



US Turn Up The Heat on Trade Wars

The US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are now officially active, taking the level of tariffs to its highest level since the 1980s. President Trump has also advised the US to add a further 10% tariff on China in addition to the 10% announced in January. As a result, experts believe the global economy is likely to witness shockwaves in the short to medium term. This can also be seen in the stock market which has fallen 5% over the past 3 weeks.

The economic slowdown is catching up with rising inflation and tariffs which are put into place. Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves is growing with some economists advising the Fed may be pressured into taking earlier. In response to the additional tariffs, China is vowing to take countermeasures to protect its producers. Warren Buffett called the tariffs an extra tax on people with little economic benefit.

Weaker economic activity and a lower risk appetite within the market are known to pressure prices significantly. During the previous Trump administration and ‘trade tariff policy’ the price of Crude oil fell 13%.

Crude Oil - Technical Analysis

The price of Crude Oil in the longer term is obtaining indication the price may decline. On a monthly chart, the price forms a clear descending triangle which is known to hold a bearish bias. On the 2-hour chart, the price is also trading below the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average, below the VWAP and below the neutral areas of most oscillators. For this reason, momentum is indicating downward price movement.

However, the main concern for bearish traders is the support level which is sitting at $66.70 per barrel. The support level is currently 1.50% points away from the current price. In order for sell signals to materialise in the short term, traders will be monitoring if the price can break below $67.69.

[imghttps://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=images/USOILDaily_Internal_6836b26f5677492bbaad085ce4b.or iginal.png[/img]

Key Takeaway Points:

* OPEC+ plans to boost production in 2025, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, pushing crude prices lower.
* The US imposes record-high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, raising concerns about global economic stability and market declines. Crude Oil prices decline as a result.
* Rising tariffs and inflation add uncertainty, with economists speculating the Fed may act sooner than expected.
* Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, but the price of Crude Oil is also nearing the key support levels at $66.70 per barrel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 03rd March 2025.

The NASDAQ and Global Stocks Rebound On Tariff Optimism.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Stocks rebound during yesterday’s US session after the US Commerce Chief advises there is room for discussions with tariffs. The NASDAQ initially fell to the lowest price since before the US elections, but quickly rebounded and rose 3.25%. On Wednesday, all stocks are rising in value including in the US, Europe and Asia.

NASDAQ Rebounds on Optimism Over Tariff Talks

The price of the NASDAQ rose in value as investors took the lower price as an opportunity to buy the discount. The US Commerce Chief said that even though the US will not remove tariffs on Mexico and Canada, they are looking to negotiate and meet them ‘in the middle’. As a result, investors quickly reentered the stock market, particularly the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ previously fell almost 10% from its recent high due to the potential negative effect of tariffs.



Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs on US products worth 155 billion CAD ($107 billion), set to take full effect at the end of the month. Meanwhile, China imposed 10–15% tariffs on various US agricultural goods, including soybeans, corn, dairy, and beef. Experts warn these trade barriers could accelerate inflation. However, the effect on the stock market in the long-term will depend on if the US will negotiate a ‘[middle ground’.

Additionally, the GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed revised U.S. GDP projections down to -2.8% from the previous -1.5%, increasing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move, whether to maintain high rates to curb inflation or lower borrowing costs to support the economy. The NASDAQ may positively react if the Federal Reserve considers earlier and more frequent rate cuts.

The NASDAQ and The Global Stock Market

The performance of the NASDAQ depends on if the US can work out a deal with Mexico and Canada. However, the performance of the global stock market indicates that sentiment is improving after the dip. All global indices including the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei225 and Hang Seng are trading higher today.

Additionally US Bond Yields continue to indicate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least on 2 occasions. The VIX, which is used as a risk indicator, is trading more than 3.00% lower which is known to be positive for the NASDAQ. This can also be seen in the price movement of the NASDAQ’s most influential stocks which are on the rise in the market pre-open trading hours.

Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and NVIDIA are all trading higher during Wednesday’s Asian and European Session. NVIDIA is witnessing the strongest increase rising 1.70%. Whereas, on Tuesday, only 46% of the most influential stocks saw an increase in value.

NASDAQ Technical Analysis

Although the NASDAQ and global stocks have shown positive movement in recent hours, they are still in a retracement phase. Based on the medium-term average price and oscillators, the price maintains a bearish bias. Therefore, at first any bearish signals will mainly target the $20,728.00 price which is in line with the trend-line and resistance level. Whereas, if momentum is lost and falls below $20,424.32, sell signals may again materialize.

Key Takeaway Points:

* NASDAQ Rebounds: The NASDAQ surged 3.25% after the US Commerce Chief suggested room for tariff discussions, with investors buying at a discounted price.
* Tariff Impact: Canada imposed $107 billion in retaliatory tariffs on US goods, while China introduced 10-15% tariffs on US agricultural products, raising inflation concerns.
* Global Markets Up: Global indices, including the DAX, Nikkei, and Hang Seng, are rising, indicating improving market sentiment after recent declines.
* Fed Uncertainty & Rate Cuts: The US GDPNow model lowered GDP projections to -2.8%, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the near future.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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