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Date: 20th March 2024.

Market Recap – All eyes on FED.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasury yields are sinking as bonds await the FOMC’s results. The market is recovering slightly from this month’s selloff that has taken rates to the highest levels since late November.
* Stock markets traded mixed overnight, while Bonds have been in demand as the FOMC announcement comes into view.
* German producer prices fell -4.1% y/y in February. PPI has bottomed out, but so far is still firmly in negative territory, largely thanks to a -10.1% y/y drop in energy prices. Developments are backing the ECB’s assessment that things are moving in the right direction. Services price inflation though, which is more driven by wage growth than goods prices, remains stubbornly high for now.
* UK inflation continues to decelerate adding support to the bond market. The data confirms that inflation is moving in the right direction, but also that it remains far too high, which will justify a dovish hold from the BoE tomorrow.
* FOMC Checklist: The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement today. Expectations are for no policy change at this meeting, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024. The SEP was last updated in December, and is due for another update at this March meeting.



Market Trends:

* A mixed open on Wall Street with some weakness on profit taking after further AI inspired gains. The Dow climbed 0.83%, with the S&P500 (US500) advancing 0.56%, while the NASDAQ (US100) was up 0.39%.
* ASX paring some of Tuesday’s gains, while China bourses nudged higher.
* Nvidia (+1.07%) debuts next-generation Blackwell AI chip at GTC 2024.
* Microsoft hires DeepMind founder to lead new AI shift.
* Apple is in talks with Alphabet’s Google to potentially incorporate Google’s “Gemini” generative AI engine into its iPhones.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex found a bid too after the BoJ’s dovish hike. It tested 104.06 but slid to 103.82 at the close.
* USDJPY is at 151.57 spiking to 4-month highs while EURJPY spiked to a 16-year peak after the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates without clear guidance on further hikes.
* A stronger than expected German ZEW investor confidence reading failed to boost the Euro significantly. Cable is holding slightly below the 1.27 mark.
* Gold flattened for a 3rd day in a row and USOIL fell to $82.24 from $83.
* Bitcoin continued to pull back from its recent record high, falling over 5% at one point. Shares of crypto-linked companies Coinbase (COIN) and Marathon Digital (MARA) lost ground alongside the token.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st March 2024.

Market Recap – Gold & Stocks at record highs; Fed maintained rate cut forecast.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The Fed signalled that rate cuts are still in the cards, stock markets rallied, Treasury yield were lower and the US Dollar was down from earlier highs.

* DOT PLOT: Fed keeps rates on hold and signals 75 basis points of cuts this year! – 9 officials out of 19 expressed the need of 3 rate cuts, and 1 expects 4 rate cuts. For the remainder of the 2024 forecasts, 5 expect two rate cuts, 2 expect one rate cut, and 2 expect no cuts.
* The Fed left policy unchanged, as expected. And although the revisions on the Fed funds path, as well as on the economy and inflation were all hawkish, Chair Powell said “the story is the same one,” meaning rate cuts are still in the cards and the Fed is confident it will achieve its objectives over time.
* Australia: Robust jobs data released this morning supported Aussie, with 116,500 roles added to the economy in February.
* New Zealand: The GDP showed the country unexpectedly fell into a recession in the second half of 2023.
* Today’s round of European central bank decisions includes BoE, SNB and Norges Bank!



Market Trends:

* Asian shares rallied to their highest in 2 years. The Nikkei and Hang Seng surged more than 2% and the ASX gained 1.1%.
* The optimism in other markets is set to spill over into European trading. The Euro Stoxx 50 future is up 1.2% and US futures are broadly higher.
* Wall Street surged with the NASDAQ (US100) rising 1.3% for its first record high close since March 1. All Magnificent Seven stocks advanced. The S&P500 (US500) climbed 0.89% to 5224, the first time with a 5200 handle, and the Dow advanced 1.03% to 39,512.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The US Dollar slumped marginally with the USDIndex sliding to 102.80 at the close after testing 103.80 earlier.
* JPY, AUD and NZD reverted some losses gaining some ground against the US Dollar.
* Gold climbs to record high above $2200 in sudden spike – due to to growing expectations of US interest rate cuts, which would make the non-yielding asset relatively more attractive, Chinese purchases, geopolitics turn investors to the haven asset.
* USOIL fell to $80.88.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22th March 2024.

Pending Orders and Apple Lawsuit Apply Selling Pressure on the NASDAQ!



* Apple stocks witness the second largest decline within the NASDAQ, falling more than 4.00%. Shareholders sold shares after news of another federal antitrust law violation.
* Apple is set to receive its second fine from regulators for “monopolizing” the phone sector. The company has already received a $1.8 billion fine from the EU.
* The NASDAQ rises 2.43% after the Fed’s dovish tone before triggering pending orders. The USA100 ended the day 0.24% higher.
* UK Retail Sales remain unchanged beating expectations of a -0.4% decline. The Pound declines against most currencies regardless of higher retail sales data.

USA100 – Apple Stocks Struggle After A Second Antitrust Lawsuit!

The price of the USA100 is trading slightly lower during this morning’s Asian session continuing the downward momentum from 18:00 (GMT+2) onwards. The downward momentum was largely due to pending orders to sell at the new high. These orders are seen on the Depth of Market and Volume profile. However, in addition to this, the NASDAQ’s second most influential stock, Apple, declined more than 4%.

The NASDAQ has assigned a “weight” of 7.71% to Apple stock which is a concern for NASDAQ holders. This is because Apple has received another lawsuit against them for antitrust violations and “monopolizing” the industry through purposely making competitors’ products less suitable. Certain States within the US advised “Apple’s success is less based on the merits of their product but making other products less convenient for consumers”.

This would be the second penalty for Apple in 2024. The EU has already given Apple a $1.8 billion fine which has caused Apple stocks to fall up to 10%. If Apple stocks continue to decline, this may apply some pressure on the USA100 and will definitely result in the stock holding a lower weight. The USA100 was better supported by stocks with less weight rather than the more influential stocks. Of the top 20 influential stocks, 9 fell in value, while only 27% fell in value when monitoring the whole NASDAQ. Later in the day, the stock market in general can witness volatility as the Fed chairman is due to speak.



In terms of technical analysis, we can see the regression channel has thinned, which indicates there are no current active signals. The price instead will need to gain momentum and direction in order for signals to materialise. The breakout levels can be seen at $18,317.20 and $18,377.37. However, investors should note that these levels can also form “false breakouts”. The medium-term charts, such as the 2-hour chart, indicate buyers control the market. However, if a bearish price movement forms, support can be found between $18,191 and $18,246.

GBPUSD – Economic Data Continues to Improve Sentiment Towards The Dollar!

The cable exchange rate trades at its lowest level in over a month due to the strengthening Dollar and dovishness amongst members of the Bank of England. The exchange rate fell 0.99% on Thursday and a further 0.56% during this morning’s two sessions.



The BoE’s accompanying statement stated that inflation pressures are weakening, but wage growth rates remain above target levels, creating additional risks for the economy if the transition to a “dovish” course is too rapid. Though investors are concentrating more on the fact the Monetary Policy Committee saw no votes for a rate hike. For this reason, the committee seem more bearish than bullish. 8 members voted for a pause and 1 for a cut.

The US Dollar on the other hand is trading higher due to weakness in other currencies and the possibilities of less frequent cuts. Based on the comments from the Fed, the regulator will not delay the cuts but simply make them less frequent. In addition to this, the US Dollar is being supported by the latest US economic data. Unemployment claims remained low while the Philly Fed Index and Existing Home Sales significantly rose above expectations. In addition to this, investors were happy to see both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI indexes remain above the significant 50.00 mark.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th March 2024.

Market Recap – Quarter End Comes Into View.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Treasuries, Wall Street, and the US Dollar all posted small losses to start the abbreviated week of trading.

* The market is consolidating into quarter-end. This week’s supply is pressuring at the margin, while uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path is limiting buying. Though the just-published dots assuaged concerns over the prospects for less than 3 rate cuts this year, anxiety remains high, especially after Bostic said he trimmed his estimate to 1 easing this year from 2 previously.
* Stock markets traded cautiously overnight, as the quarter end comes into view. China bourses outperformed, while Nikkei and ASX corrected.
* The offshore Yuan strengthened for a second day after China’s central bank reinforced its support for the currency.
* Geopolitics: Ukrainian drone attacks have caused disruptions at Russian oil refineries, with around 12% of the country’s oil processing capacity reportedly impacted. A resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by Russia and China and a terrorist attack in Russia over the weekend added to geopolitical risks as did fresh threats by Yemen-based Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia.

Market Trends:

* Wall Street slipped on profit taking ahead of quarter-end, having made strong gains since the start of the year and hitting record highs last Thursday.
* The Dow fell -0.41%, the S&P500 was off -0.31% and the NASDAQ was down -0.27%. For the quarter, the S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 9.44% and 9.15%, respectively, and the Dow is up 4.3%.
* DAX and FTSE100 futures are also in the red, while US futures have moved higher.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has been in consolidation mode at the start of the week and is currently trading at 103.77.
* The Yen strengthened against USD and CHF, but USDJPY is still at 151.20. Japan’s top currency officials warned against speculative moves in foreign exchange markets, after the recent weakness in the yen saw USDJPY climbing above 151 once again.
* Gold continues to trade near record highs, but the ascent has been capped by the recent rise in the Dollar and caution ahead of the US PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and is due to be released on Friday.
* Copper prices fell amid ongoing demand concerns. For agricultural commodities, the ascent in cocoa prices remains noteworthy.
* USOIL inched higher above $81.50, amid fresh supply concerns.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th March 2024.

Market Recap – Yen on Intervention watch.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* A slip in risk appetite and a solid 5-year auction gave Treasuries a little boost yesterday with yields ending modestly lower.
* Profit taking on the strong gains for the quarter, and indeed record highs last week, and some tax loss selling weighed.
* Wall Street ended with small losses. The NASDAQ fell -0.42%, with the S&P500 off -0.28%, while the Dow dipped -0.08%.
* The US consumer confidence undershot assumptions and joined a Michigan sentiment down-tick to 76.5 from 76.9 in February and a 30-month high of 79.0 in January. All the surveys face headwinds from high mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and recession fears.
* The US durables report slightly beat estimates thanks to a restrained 3.3%.
* Data showed that industrial profits in China jumped 10.2% in the first 2 months of the year, but signs of an ongoing recovery means there is a lower chance of further stimulus. China officials also seem to have tightened their grip on the currency once again.
* Japan officials have also engaged in some verbal intervention over the past week, but that didn’t prevent the Yen from hitting a 34 year low against the Dollar.
* Italy sold about 12.5% of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA for about €650 million ($704 million) as part of Giorgia Meloni’s government plan to divest from the bailed-out lender.



Market Trends:

* Today, European stock futures are lower ahead of the ESI economic confidence reading and the 4-day Easter holiday weekend.
* US futures are in demand after a mixed close across Asia.
* The China bourses underperformed, Hang Seng & CSI 300 are down -1.4% and -1.2% respectively.
* Bond yields are slightly lower, with the 10-year Treasury rate down -0.6 bp at 4.23%, and the 10-year JGB rate down -1.5 bp.
* Bunds are outperforming, and the German 10-year rate has corrected -2.6 bp in early trade, as markets expect Spanish HICP numbers to confirm the downtrend in headline inflation.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex recovered to close slightly firmer at 104.10. It’s a fourth straight close over 104.
* The Yen is at 34-year low retesting once again the 152 high.
* Gold extended gains as the focus shifts to key US PCE numbers on Friday. Bullion is currently at $2179 after breaching $2200. Geopolitical risk, central bank buying, bond rally and rate cut expectations solidifying, all added to the strength in gold.
* USOIL steady for a 2nd day in a row below $81.00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th March 2024.

The US Dollar Strengthens As Economists Believe The ECB Will Struggle To “Hold”.




* Early this morning, the Fed Governor advised “there is no rush to cut rates” and “the data within the upcoming months” will be vital.
* The US Dollar Index rises to a 1-month high. The value of the USD will largely be based on today’s data on economic growth, consumer sentiment and pending home sales.
* Dollar and index traders are closely monitoring tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect will read 0.3%. A higher inflation reading can potentially pressure stocks and support the Dollar.
* Strong declines in NVIDIA and Netflix stocks pressured the NASDAQ on Wednesday. Though, buyers entered late in the session to boost the overall price.

EURUSD

The latest comments from members of the Federal Reserve are supporting the US Dollar. The forward guidance between members of the Federal Reserve is mainly not aligned. The Chairman advises the Fed does not need much more proof for the regulator to feel comfortable reducing rates. Whereas the Fed Governor, Mr Waller, advises there is no rush, and he wants to see a few months of data before determining the next move. Therefore, the upcoming inflation and employment data will remain vital and could even push back rate hikes further. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate on 3 occasions this year, but the timing of the first cut is less certain and may change depending on upcoming data.

A positive factor for traders is that EURUSD exchange is not witnessing conflicting currencies. The US Dollar is trading 0.12% higher while the Euro is declining against most currencies. The Euro is trading 0.06% lower against the Pound and the Canadian Dollar and 0.16% lower against the Japanese Yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Italy, Mr Cipollone, said that the authorities were confident that inflation would return to the target of 2.0% by mid–2025. He also supports the lower of interest rate and will use this as a basis for adjusting monetary policy. The Euro is generally under pressure as investors believe the European Central Bank will struggle to avoid cuts if the Fed decide to delay their adjustments.

The US Dollar will be influenced by four major economic data releases. The US Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index. If these read higher than expectations with the weekly unemployment claims dropping, the US Dollar is likely to witness further support. However, investors should note the main release will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. Traders are expecting no major news for Europe and volatility levels may fall tomorrow as European markets are closed for Easter.



Technical analysis currently points towards a continued downward trend. The price is trading below the neutral on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. However, investors should note this will also be dependent on upcoming US data.

USA100

The price of the USA100 was under pressure throughout the whole US session but was saved by an increased volume of buyers late in the session. However, a positive point is the components held onto their value. Even though the index fell in value, only 28% of the components declined. Investors will now turn their attention towards tomorrow’s PCE Price Index and the upcoming earnings season which will start in mid-April.

The price is now trading slightly above the Moving Averages but slightly below the 50.00 on the RSI. Therefore, technical analysis remains at the “neutral” level and continues to indicate a larger price range. If today’s economic data is positive the stock market can witness confidence and support as this continues to indicate a soft landing. Though, if the data is too strong, it could also trigger a hawkish Fed which is known to be negative for the USA100.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th March 2024.

GBPUSD Analysis: The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long?



* The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Easter Friday (Good Friday). The NASDAQ continued to follow the sideways trend while other indices again rose.
* The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple.
* The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen.
* The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session. However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index.

GBPUSD – The Pound Trades Higher but For How Long?

The GBPUSD is slightly higher than the day’s open and is primary due to the Pound’s strong performance. At the moment, the British Pound is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the US Dollar Index is also trading 0.10% higher and for this reason there is a slight conflict here. If investors wish to avoid this conflict, the EURUSD is a better option. This is because, the Euro depreciating against the whole currency market avoiding the “tug-of-war” scenario.

The GBPUSD is trading slightly lower than the 2-month’s average price and is trading at 49.10 on the RSI. For this reason, the price of the exchange is at a “neutral” level and is signalling neither a buy nor a sell. The day’s price action and future signals are possibly likely to be triggered by this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index.



Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to read 0.3% which is slightly lower than the previous month but will result in the annual figure remaining at 2.85%. The PCE rate is different to the inflation rate and the Fed aims for a rate between 1.5% to 2.00%. Therefore, even if the annual rate remains at 2.85%, as analysts expect, it would be too high for the Fed. If the rate increases, even if only slightly, the US Dollar can again renew bullish momentum and the stock market can come under pressure. This includes the SNP500.

Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2023: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% over the past 12-months. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. The data, combined with a cooling labor market and a steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin interest rate cuts. In the latest meeting the Bank of England representatives did not see any members vote for a hike.

USA500 – The SNP500 Rises to New Highs, But Cannot Hold Onto Gains!

The price of the SNP500 rises to an all-time high, before correcting 0.33% and ending the day slightly lower than the open price. Nonetheless, the index performs better than the NASDAQ which came under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple which hold a higher weight compared to the SNP500. For the SNP500, these 3 stocks hold a weight of 9.25%, whereas the 3 stocks make up 14.63% of the NASDAQ. The SNP500 is also supported by ExxonMobil’s gains due to higher energy prices.

The market will remain closed on Friday due to Easter. However, the market will reopen on Monday for the US and investors can expect high volatility. Investors will also need to take into consideration how the PCE Price Index and the changed value of the US Dollar is likely to affect the stock market next week.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st April 2024.

Strong Chinese Economic Data Prompts Demand for US Stocks!


Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

* The Chinese economy and sentiment improve for the first time since September 2023. Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, beating expectations. Higher Chinese data improves the global risk appetite towards stocks.
* Stocks trade higher, what is more, the SNP500, and Dow Jones again renew their all-time highs. The latest Chinese data and a PCE Price Index in line with expectations support price growth.
* The price of Gold and the US Dollar Index are both on the rise, which is a concern for investors. The market’s price movement gives no clear indication of investor’s risk appetite.
* Apple is expected to confirm the Vision Pro Headset will be made available to global consumers in the summer months.

USA500 – Inflation, Earnings and Company News!

The USA500 starts the day with a moderate bullish price gap measuring 0.21% and continues trading 0.52% higher ever since. The price of the index is now trading at an all-time high and has risen more than 10.50% in 2024. The SNP500 has also been the best performing index in 2024 and has outperformed both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones? The question for traders is, will this continue?



A positive factor for the USA500 is the Federal Reserve and most global central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. The main factor which investors needed to see is that central banks were able to do so without triggering a significant economic contraction, which was achieved. Another positive factor is the Core PCE Price Index did not beat expectations, which was vital considering inflation over the past 2 months kept reading higher than previously thought.

However, some risks do remain which can make the path difficult for buyers. The price of Gold as well as the price of the US Dollar continue to rise. This occurrence indicates the market’s risk appetite and sentiment is lower than priced in the stock market. Another concern is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to indeed cut interest rates in July 2024 if inflation does not decline over the next 2 months.

Investors are closely watching the price of oil which is trading 13.50% higher in 2024 and at a 6-month high. If the price of Oil continues to rise and fails to fall back below $80.00 per barrel in the next two months, inflation will be difficult to reduce. As a result, the Fed may again push back a rate cut to July or September. Otherwise, the Fed may continue with a cut in June, but will advise less than 3 cuts for the remainder of the year.

So, what can save the SNP500 and stock market if the Fed chose not to cut and if inflation rises. The answer is the quarterly earnings reports scheduled for later this month and in May. Investors will mainly be focusing their attention on the following stocks:

1. Microsoft
2. Apple
3. NVIDIA
4. Alphabet
5. Amazon
6. Meta

The stock which is a concern for investors is Apple Stocks. Apple has received a large penalty from the EU and is now facing a lawsuit from the US. Shareholders will be keen to see what the board of directors have to say regarding this and how it will affect the earnings per share. Investors will also be keen to see the performance of the Apple Vision Pro Headset which was released in February. If the sales figure reads as expected or beats expectations, the demand for the stocks can rise regardless of the upcoming fines. Apple is also expected to announce that the product will be made available to global consumers later in the summer. Apple quarterly earnings will be released on May 2nd and Microsoft on April 23rd.

USA500 – Technical Analysis After Strong Chinese Economic Data

Over the past 3 trading days, the price of the USA500 has successfully been forming higher highs and higher lows. The price this morning saw strong momentum, which was also due to positive economic data from China. The Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectations. Furthermore, technical indicators continue to indicate a higher price. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 level on the RSI. In addition to this, delta statistics also indicate buyers are controlling the market. If the price again rises above $5,273.31, the breakout will further indicate upward price movement.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd April 2024.

Market Recap – Inflation: Will be back?


Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasuries were hit by stronger than expected ISM data and yields climbed sharply in a bear steepener. – US manufacturing unexpectedly expanded for the first time since September 2022 & input costs climbed.
* The latest ISM data indicates that the US economy continues to display strength despite elevated interest rates. This bodes well for the stock market, as it has the potential to fuel profit growth for businesses. However, it also raises concerns about inflationary pressures.
* Wall Street took its lumps to start Q2 amid the eroding Fed view and the pop in interest rates. The broader indexes closed with losses, though from fresh record highs last Thursday.
* FED: Expectations are moving toward fewer cuts this year as well, from the 3 that have been in for priced in much of 2024 to date, consistent with the FOMC’s dots, to 2, 1, or even none. A couple of key Fed officials, Waller and Bostic, have indicated their preferences for fewer than 3 cuts this year. Now there is a 61% chance of the Fed cutting rates in June.
* UK Nationwide house prices unexpectedly dropped -0.2% m/m in March, after rising 0.7% m/m in the previous month.



Market Trends:

* The Dow dropped -0.6% and the S&P 500 slid -0.2%. The NASDAQ managed a 0.11% rally.
* European stock futures are slightly higher in early trade, with the FTSE 100 outperforming. The Hang Seng rallied overnight, as Hong Kong’s markets re-opened after the extended holiday weekend and investors reacted to the better than expected Chinese PMI reports.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex climbed back over the 105 level thanks to the strength in the data, closing at 105.019 and hitting the highest closing level since mid-November. Underpinning * the move has been the hotter inflation data and resilient growth that have been shifting outlooks on the FOMC’s rate cutting trajectory, pushing back the timing of the first move toward July rather than June.
* The Yen was steady higher at 151.70. Focus is now fixed squarely on the BOJ’s bond-buying operation scheduled for Wednesday.
* Gold managed to hit a fresh peak at $2251.44 per ounce and a second close over $2200.
* USOIL breached 61.8% Fib. level since the September downleg, at $84.14. (Rising geopolitical risks in the ME & tighter supply from Mexico helping to buoy prices.)
* Bitcoin drifted back to $67k amid cooling demand for dedicated US ETFs and ebbing bets on looser Fed policy. – 10% down since $73,798 highs in mid-March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd April 2024.

Market Recap – ‘Good News is Bad News’


Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Rate cut hopes for the US are fading, which is weighing on stock markets. Bonds have found a footing, at least outside of the US, and the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.4 bp, after the 10-year JGB corrected -1.3 bp.
* A rise in February JOLTS, albeit after a downward revision to January, and a better than expected factory report, exacerbated the sell off in longer dated Treasuries.
* Disappointing delivery news from Tesla, along with weakness in the health and retail sectors, weighed on sentiment.
* Rising geopolitical risks boosted Gold and Oil.
* Fed’s Mester(Voter) & Daly (Voter): They still see 3 cuts this year, which helped trim losses. Mester stated that she will not vote for a cut at the May meeting given the lack of sufficient data but said she would not rule out action in June.
* China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March. Yuan declined despite data.
* Today: EU Inflation & Core, US ADP, US ISM Services and Fed Powell speech. OPEC ministerial meeting is also on tap and it is expected to confirm current output cut targets.



Market Trends:

* Wall Street slumped as well on JOLTS and hence the Fed outlook and the rise in yields with the major indexes falling over -1.0% before paring losses. The Dow finished with a -1.0% drop, while the S&P500 was down -0.72% and the NASDAQ -0.95% lower.
* Stocks have sold off across Asia, with Hang Seng and ASX underperforming and losing more than -1%. US futures are also in the red, while European futures are narrowly mixed.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex climbed to hit 105.10, but it lost traction and slid to close at 104.52 with a pick up in downside momentum after the Fedspeak. Monday’s 105.019 close was the first with a 105 handle since mid-November.
* The AUD & NZD (often used as liquid proxies for the CNH), are under pressure as a result of a stronger USD and a weaker CNH.
* Gold (+11% this year) surged to a new all-time peak at $2288 even as Fed rate cut bets were pared. Silver hit a 2-year high.
* USOIL was up 1.9% at $85.30 per barrel with additional support from expectations for rising demand.
* Bitcoin at $66.3K, under pressure for a 3rd day in a row.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.