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Date: 24th November 2025.

Markets Rebound Ahead of Thanksgiving: Is a Fed Rate Cut Back on the Table?


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

US stock futures climbed on Monday as markets entered the shortened Thanksgiving trading week, supported by growing optimism that the Federal Reserve may move towards an interest-rate cut in December. The rebound comes after a broad pullback earlier in the month that eased the pace of 2025’s strong AI-driven equity rally.

Futures tied to major US indices showed a positive tone early in the day. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged higher by roughly 0.2%, S&P 500 futures advanced around 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained close to 0.7%, signalling appetite for tech stocks after recent declines. The moves came as traders attempted to extend Friday’s rebound and position ahead of a data-heavy week.



Market sentiment improved following comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who noted that a December rate cut remains a possibility. His remarks offered relief after a series of cautious statements from other policymakers. Still, November has been a difficult month for equities. The S&P 500 fell about 2% last week, widening its month-to-date decline to roughly 3.5%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.7% and is now down more than 6% in November, while the Dow slipped nearly 2% over the same period and is off close to 3% for the month. The declines reflect a broader reassessment of stretched valuations, particularly across AI-related sectors that led gains earlier in the year.

The US is still dealing with the lingering impact of the longest government shutdown in its history, which has disrupted the release schedule for key data. Economic indicators are now slowly returning, and traders are watching closely. September’s producer price index and retail sales numbers are expected on Tuesday, followed by weekly jobless claims on Wednesday. These releases should help provide a clearer picture of inflation, consumer demand, and the potential timing of any Federal Reserve policy shift.

Earnings season is also winding down with a relatively quiet lineup. Reports from Alibaba, Dell Technologies, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and a few other retailers will be the highlights of the holiday-shortened week. US markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will operate on a shortened schedule on Friday, closing at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.

Trade policy remains another area of uncertainty. The Supreme Court is preparing to rule on whether the bulk of President Trump’s tariffs were imposed legally. According to reports, the Commerce Department and the Office of the US Trade Representative have been preparing contingency plans should the ruling go against the administration. The decision could have broad implications for global trade flows and corporate pricing strategies.

Gold Prices Slip as Traders Weigh Prospects of a December Fed Rate Cut

Gold prices edged lower on Monday as investors assessed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut before year-end, reducing demand for the precious metal. Gold futures traded near $4,055 an ounce after a modest weekly decline, with traders cautious amid mixed signals from US central bank officials.

Despite the uncertainty, comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who noted that there may be scope for a near-term reduction in borrowing costs, helped gold pare some losses on Friday, although the metal still ended the session in the red. The delayed release of economic data due to the government shutdown has made it more difficult for markets to gauge the true likelihood of policy easing. The return of September retail sales and producer-price data on Tuesday, along with jobless claims on Wednesday, should provide a more reliable read on the economic landscape. Futures markets currently assign a little over 60% probability to a quarter-point rate cut in December.



Gold has been consolidating after it surged to a record high above $4,380 per ounce on October 20. Even with recent softness, the metal remains up around 55% this year, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions, ongoing trade uncertainty, and concerns over deteriorating fiscal positions across major global economies. Analysts expect gold to continue trading within a relatively tight range for now. According to Ahmad Assiri, strategist at Pepperstone Group, the rate outlook is difficult to predict and may keep gold clustered around its current levels, creating an environment more conducive to two-way trading rather than sharp directional moves.

Spot gold slipped 0.3% to around $4,051.69 an ounce in Singapore trading. Silver held steady, while platinum and palladium posted gains. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, providing limited support for bullion.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th November 2025.

Asian Markets Rise as US Stock Rally Boosts Global Sentiment; Bitcoin Stabilises.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asian stocks traded mostly higher on Tuesday, supported by a strong rally on Wall Street as investors increased their bets that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon. Meanwhile, US futures slipped, oil prices fell, and Bitcoin attempted to recover after weeks of heavy selling.

Asian Stock Markets Mixed but Mostly Higher

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was little changed at 48,628.85 as markets reopened from a holiday. The index was pressured by a sharp 10.3% drop in SoftBank after concerns emerged that Google’s new Gemini AI model could challenge returns from SoftBank’s major investment in OpenAI.

In the rest of Asia:

* Kospi in South Korea rose 0.3% to 3,859.12.
* Taiwan’s Taiex jumped 1.5%, extending tech-sector strength.
* Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.4% to 25,821.47.
* Shanghai Composite gained 0.9% to 3,872.45.
* Alibaba rose 1.6% ahead of its earnings release later in the day.
* Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1%, closing at 8,537.00.

US Stock Market Rallies Ahead of Thanksgiving Week

US markets will pause on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday before Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Still, investors kicked off the shortened trading week with strong gains:

* S&P 500 jumped 1.5% to 6,705.12.
* Dow Jones added 0.4% to 46,448.27.
* Nasdaq Co0mposite surged 2.7% to 22,872.01.

The rally was fuelled by rising expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December, which would help support the
US economy and boost equity valuations. AI-related stocks also drove momentum:

* Alphabet surged 6.3% on optimism around its latest Gemini AI technology.
* Nvidia climbed 2.1%, extending its AI-driven leadership.

Despite recent volatility, the S&P 500 remains within 2.7% of its all-time high, underscoring continued investor confidence in the US market outlook.

Key Inflation Data in Focus This Week

Markets are now awaiting the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, a major signal of inflation trends. Economists expect wholesale inflation to stay at 2.6% year-over-year.

A hotter-than-expected reading could reduce the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut, especially with inflation still above the central bank’s 2% target. Even so, traders currently price in an 85% probability of a rate cut, up sharply from last week’s levels.

Oil Prices Fall as Dollar and Euro Slip

In early Tuesday trading:

* WTI crude dropped 25 cents to $58.59 per barrel.
* Brent crude fell 30 cents to $62.42.
* The US dollar eased to 156.70 yen.
* The euro slightly declined to $1.1517.



Bitcoin Price Attempts to Recover After Heavy Selling

Bitcoin, which has been under intense selling pressure in recent weeks, slipped 1.1% to $88,100, far below last month’s high near $125,000. The downturn erased over $1 trillion from the broader crypto market and drove Bitcoin to a seven-month low.

However, market signals suggest that the sell-off may be stabilising:

* Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI is now around 32, near oversold territory.
* Implied volatility on Bitcoin options has dropped to levels last seen in April.
* Put-option premiums have fallen sharply, with the cost of downside protection dropping from 11% to 4.5%, according to Orbit Markets’ Caroline Mauron.

‘This indicates that stress has eased significantly and investors believe Bitcoin may have found a near-term bottom,’ Mauron said.

Still, caution dominates the crypto space. Bitcoin remains on track for its worst month since 2022, and crypto ETFs appear set for their largest monthly outflows since launching.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.