Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

USD/JPY Analysis: Prospect of a Breakout of the Level of 155 Yen per Dollar


The USD/JPY rate has consistently reached new highs since 1990, approaching the psychological level of 155 yen per US dollar. The Japanese currency has already fallen about 9% against the dollar this year.

This is supported by Jerome Powell, who suggested yesterday that US interest rates are likely to remain high for longer. He refused to give any guidance on when interest rates might be cut, greatly dimming investors' hopes for significant easing this year.

Market participants now expect a 40 basis point rate cut in 2024, significantly lower than the 160 basis point easing they were counting on at the start of the year, according to FedWatch.

At the same time, traders are focused on whether Japanese monetary authorities will intervene to support the currency as it deteriorates rapidly. Officials have stepped up warnings of possible intervention, although analysts also say fighting the dollar's strong bullish trend will be difficult and costly. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday he was closely monitoring the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar today and would take "strengthened response measures if necessary."

“Today, intervention can only help slow or contain the pace of depreciation, but cannot reverse the trend,” Kenneth Broux, head of exchange rate research at Societe Generale, told Reuters. Japan last intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2022, spending an estimated USD 60 billion to defend the yen.



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UK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation Slows


Yesterday, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the CPI stood at 3.2% in March. According to ForexFactory, analysts expected 3.1%, and a month ago the index was 3.4%.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: “Once again, food prices were the main reason for the fall, with prices rising by less than we saw a year ago. Similarly to last month, we saw a partial offset from rising fuel prices.”

Thus, actual inflation in the UK fell to its lowest level in two and a half years. According to Yahoo Finance, this weakening of inflation could influence the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates from the current level of 5.25% in June.

In anticipation of an easing of monetary policy, the values of the UK stock index UK100 increased yesterday. Today it is above the 7,900 level.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Dollar is Corrected after the Comments of the Head of the Federal Reserve


Good data on the labour market in the United States and the continuous rise in inflation for several months are helping to reduce experts’ expectations about a change in the vector of monetary policy in the United States. Recent comments from the head of the Federal Reserve confirm the fears of market participants. At a speech at the Wilson Center in Washington on Tuesday, Jerome Powell said: "More confidence will be needed that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent before it is appropriate to ease policy." Such statements undoubtedly should have supported the US currency, but judging by the movement of the major currency pairs, dollar buyers simply need a little respite.

GBP/USD


At the beginning of the current five-day trading period, quite diverse statistics came from the UK:

• In February, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% against the forecast of 4.0%
• The level of average wages rose to 5.6% versus 5.5%
• The level of average wages rose to 5.6% versus 5.5%

Such indicators allowed pound buyers to find and test support at 1.2400.

According to technical analysis for GBP/USD (Japanese candlesticks) on the daily timeframe, we have a bullish engulfing combination. If the price fixes above 1.2480, a corrective pullback for the pair may extend to 1.2540-1.2520. A refresh of the recent low could lead to the start of a new downward impulse in the direction of 1.2330-1.2280.

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Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Since the Start of the Week, Brent Oil Price Has Dropped over 4%


At the beginning of the week, March 15, we wrote that the price of Brent oil could form a correction from the resistance level of USD 91 per barrel. Since then, the price has decreased by more than 4% due to a number of factors:

→ easing concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to Reuters, and easing its conflict with Israel reduces the likelihood of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

→ reduction in oil consumption. JP Morgan analysts noted this week that global oil consumption in April stood at 101 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels below forecast.

→ growth in oil reserves in the USA. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7 million barrels last week, the EIA reported.



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Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Turn Red


AUD/USD declined below the 0.6500 and 0.6455 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might struggle to recover above 0.5950.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6500 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6410 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6000 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5890 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6540 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6500 support against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6455 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6400. A low was formed at 0.6362 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6456 swing high to the 0.6362 low.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6410 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6410 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6456 swing high to the 0.6362 low.

The next major resistance is near 0.6455, above which the price could rise toward 0.6540. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6600. A close above the 0.6600 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6680.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6360 zone. The next support sits at 0.6340. If there is a downside break below 0.6340, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6300. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6265 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Escalation Between Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil Reacts


On the night of Thursday into Friday, reports emerged that Israel had attacked Iran following Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend.

Let's remember that we wrote on Monday that after a 300 drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, the price of Brent oil did not rise. Perhaps this happened because Iran's attack was then expected after the attack on its diplomatic mission, and warnings were published in the media.

And the initial reaction of financial markets to the escalation tonight looked more dramatic - there was a jump in prices for protective assets:

→ gold rose in price to USD 2,410 and above;

→ the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen have risen in price;

→ oil and US Treasury bonds rose in price.

There was also a sale of risky assets — Bitcoin, for example, fell below the USD 60k level. Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, told Reuters: "It's pretty obvious the market is nervous. I think markets are at this stage in a flight-to-safety mode.”

As the morning approached, new information began to appear in Europe:

→ An Iranian official told Reuters that there was no missile attack;

→ CNN writes that Iranian air defenses intercepted three drones, and the United States did not approve of the Israeli attack;

→ According to the IAEA, there was no damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities after the Israeli strike.

→ According to ABC News, air traffic has resumed in Iran.

As a result, prices moved towards the closing levels of yesterday's trading — V-like patterns formed on the charts of the mentioned instruments.

The oil market can be considered the most susceptible to the influence of nightly news, since Iran is one of the top 10 countries in oil production.



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Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NFLX Stock Price Falls Despite Subscriber Growth


Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session on the stock market, Netflix reported to investors for the 1st quarter of 2024.

The report turned out better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 5.28, forecast = USD 4.52;
→ gross income: actual = USD 9.40 billion, forecast = USD 9.27.
→ The number of subscribers increased by 9.3 million (expected +4.8 million).

However, NFLX's pre-market share price today is hovering around USD 580, about 6% below yesterday's closing price.

Negativity manifested itself in:
→ disappointing forecasts for the 2nd quarter;
→ investors also did not like the decision to stop providing quarterly reports on changes in the number of subscribers next year.

If NFLX stock opens today around the USD 580 level, then it would indicate that the market has moved down to the lower boundary of the parallel channel (shown in blue).



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Commodity Currencies at Strategic Levels. What Can Affect a Breakdown Downwards?


The decline in investor expectations regarding a change in the vector of the Fed's monetary policy contributes to the fall of not only European, but also commodity currencies. So, in recent weeks:

• AUD/USD has lost more than 200 points and is testing the extremes of 2023 near 0.6400
• USD/CAD is trading at three-year highs and has managed to strengthen by 300 points

What may affect the pricing of the main currency pairs on the market in the coming trading sessions:

• Speech by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee (today at 17.30 GMT+3.00)
• Publication on the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes (today at 20.00 GMT+3.00)
• Announcement on the base lending rate from the People's Bank of China (Monday at 4.15 GMT+3.00)

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD currency pair has come close to the important range of 1.3970-1.3800, above which the price has not risen since 2020.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates the possibility of a downward correction in the short term, since a dark clouds combination has been formed on the daily timeframe, the development of which could lead to a breakdown of yesterday’s low at 1.3740 and a further test of 1.3650-1.3620. If the upward movement resumes, the price may break through the recent high at 1.3840 and continue to rise in the direction of 1.3970-1.3880.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Watch FXOpen's 15 - 19 April Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: UK100, USD, GOLD, OIL

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• UK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation Slows
• The Dollar is Corrected after the Comments of the Head of the Federal Reserve
• XAU/USD Gold Price Reaches an Important Resistance Zone
• Since the Beginning of the Week, the Price of Brent Oil Has Fallen by More than 4%

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Bitcoin Price Bullish after Halving-2024


On April 19, 2024, a halving occurred in the Bitcoin network, resulting in the reward for the mined block amounting to 3.125 BTC.

Historically, after the halving (which is associated with a reduction in supply), the price of Bitcoin heads to all-time highs. But, as Forbes reports, Goldman Sachs analysts warn against extrapolating the results of Bitcoin price movements after past halvings to the current moment. After all, back then, the halvings occurred during a period of loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, while this time the Fed is struggling with harsher-than-expected inflation.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou are also cautious. “We do not expect Bitcoin price increases post halving as it has been already priced in,” they wrote.

However, this morning Bitcoin is trading above USD 66,000, the highest price in a week. Adding to the market's positivity are rumors that the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong is going to approve spot applications for Bitcoin ETFs.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.