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Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

This is a discussion on Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; USDCHF: the Swiss franc continues to lose ground against the US dollar A rise in US industrial production and retail ...

      
   
  1. #311
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    USDCHF: the Swiss franc continues to lose ground against the US dollar

    A rise in US industrial production and retail sales could drive the USDCHF rate up to 0.9040. More details in our analysis for 17 December 2024.

    USDCHF forecast: key trading points
    • SECO economic forecasts for Switzerland
    • US retail sales (m/m): previously 0.4%, projected at 0.6%
    • US industrial production (m/m): previously -0.29%, projected at 0.10%
    • USDCHF forecast for 17 December 2024: 0.9040

    Fundamental analysis

    Fundamental analysis for 17 December 2024 takes into account that Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will release updated economic growth forecasts today. The previous forecast, published on 19 September 2024, expected GDP growth of 1.1%, significantly below the average. The inflation forecast for 2024 was revised down to 1.2% from 1.4%, and the 2025 outlook was reduced to 0.7%. Today’s SECO report will provide the latest data on economic conditions and the outlook for 2025.

    The forecast for 17 December 2024 suggests that US retail sales may rise to 0.6%. Actual data may differ from expectations; however, increased sales in November may support the US dollar.

    US industrial production is also projected to rise to a positive level from the previous -0.29%, with the forecast for 17 December 2024 suggesting a production level of 0.10%. Although this is a modest increase, it may instil hope in investors.

    RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

  2. #312
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    Brent falls following the Federal Reserve’s statement, with the current price at 72.63 USD

    Brent oil is correcting near the key support level of 72.45 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 19 December 2024.

    Brent technical analysis

    Brent prices secured a position below the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. Today’s Brent forecast anticipates a minor bullish correction, with prices testing the Cloud’s lower boundary at 72.85 USD before falling to 71.00 USD.



    Brent prices are falling amid Federal Reserve statements about a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, raising concerns about fuel demand.

    Read more - Brent Forecast

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

  3. #313
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    The AUDUSD pair appears weak, but there are signals for recovery

    The AUDUSD pair declined to 0.6223, and recovering from the two-year low will not be easy. Find out more in our analysis for 20 December 2024.

    AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

    • The AUDUSD pair remains at a two-year low
    • The market is confident that the RBA is closer to an interest rate cut, which could happen as early as February 2025
    • AUDUSD forecast for 20 December 2024: 0.6239 and 0.6288

    Fundamental analysis

    The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6223 on Friday. The pair remains at a two-year low and appears relatively weak from a fundamental perspective.

    The market believes the Reserve Bank of Australia will soon be ready for its first rate cut amid slowing economic activity. The rate could be lowered as early as February 2025, with the current level at 4.35% per annum. The minutes of the RBA’s previous meeting, due in December, may provide further insights into these plans.

    Externally, the AUD remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. This driver became more influential after the Federal Reserve announced its cautious plans to lower the interest rate next year.

    RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

  4. #314
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    XAUUSD: Gold continues to strengthen after completing a correction

    Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen amid limited news coverage, with a potential growth target of 2,650. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 24 December 2024.

    XAUUSD technical analysis

    Having tested the middle Bollinger band, the price formed a harami reversal pattern on the XAUUSD H4 chart. It continues its upward movement, validating the signal from the reversal pattern. This trend will likely persist as the quotes remain within the ascending channel after a pullback.



    Together with the technical analysis of XAUUSD, the expectation of a pre-New Year rally supports a scenario of growth towards the 2,650 USD level.

    Read more - Gold Forecast

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

  5. #315
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    USDJPY is on the rise again, and there is more to come

    The USDJPY pair rose to 158.36 on Friday. Uncertainty persists regarding the Bank of Japan’s stance on interest rates. Find out more in our analysis for 10 January 2025.

    USDJPY forecast: key trading points

    • The USDJPY pair reaches new multi-year highs
    • The yen will remain under pressure until the Bank of Japan clarifies its interest rate policy
    • USDJPY forecast for 10 January 2025: 158.45 and 159.00

    Fundamental analysis

    The USDJPY rate ended the week even higher, hovering around 158.36.

    The Japanese yen has now fallen to a new multi-year low. Uncertainty about the timing of an interest hike by the Bank of Japan exerts significant pressure on the JPY. As Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said yesterday, the country’s economy is at a critical stage where overcoming the public’s deflationary mindset is essential. However, he did not specify when the BoJ might be ready to raise borrowing costs.

    Japan’s household spending fell by 0.4% year-on-year in November, while earnings rose by 0.7%.

    Externally, the yen faces additional pressure from a strong US dollar. The USDJPY forecast appears positive.

    RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

  6. #316
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    USDJPY: expectations for a BoJ rate hike support the yen

    The USDJPY rate is falling, with bears poised to test the 156.85 support level. More details in our analysis for 15 January 2025.

    USDJPY technical analysis

    The USDJPY quotes are declining, forming a Wedge reversal pattern. Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests that the price could attempt to test the 158.45 resistance level before falling to 154.35. A bearish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator provides an additional signal for a downward movement.



    The USDJPY rate is declining, driven by expectations for a BoJ interest rate hike, which supports the yen’s strengthening.

    Read more - USDJPY Forecast

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

  7. #317
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    USDJPY declines: the yen catches an opportunity in an attempt to strengthen

    The USDJPY pair is hovering around 155.76 on Thursday, marking the second day of decline, with the yen aggressive. Find out more in our analysis for 16 January 2025.

    USDJPY forecast: key trading points

    • The USDJPY pair is rapidly declining on the currency market
    • The market is receiving signals that the Bank of Japan is ready to raise the interest rate at the next meeting
    • USDJPY forecast for 16 January 2025: 155.14

    Fundamental analysis

    The USDJPY rate is rapidly falling, moving towards 155.76.

    The yen’s position improved significantly after comments from the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The monetary policymaker said the regulator would discuss an interest rate hike next week based on its quarterly GDP and inflation forecasts.

    Ueda also noted that the political prospects for the new US administration and wage negotiations with trade unions in Japan are becoming key factors influencing the decision to raise borrowing costs.

    The very probability of a rate hike is important to the JPY.

    The USDJPY forecast is unfavourable.

    RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

  8. #318
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    USDCAD temporarily declines, but the CAD forecast remains bearish

    The USDCAD pair begins the week with a decline to 1.4448. This does not change the trend, but the market needs a pause. Find out more in our analysis for 20 January 2025.

    USDCAD technical analysis

    The USDCAD H4 chart shows that the price has declined over the last two periods, which is insufficient for a full correction. For the price to reach the intermediate support level at 1.4381, it must first break below 1.4403.



    The USDCAD pair has temporarily paused its growth, but its medium-term outlook remains unchanged.

    Read more - USDCAD Forecast

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

  9. #319
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    USDJPY is under pressure ahead of the BoJ decision

    The USDJPY rate is correcting, though the currency pair remains under pressure, with the price currently at 155.50. Discover more in our analysis for 21 January 2025.

    USDJPY forecast: key trading points
    • The Japanese yen has strengthened for the second consecutive week, driven by market expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike
    • The Bank of Japan officials have made hawkish statements, increasing confidence in monetary policy tightening
    • Kazuo Ueda’s press conference is the market’s key event
    • USDJPY forecast for 21 January 2025: 154.30 and 153.15

    Fundamental analysis

    The USDJPY rate shows signs of growth after rebounding from the 154.90 support level. Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is strengthening for the second consecutive trading week amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike. This was triggered by hawkish comments from the bank’s officials, which increased market confidence in monetary policy tightening.

    The Bank of Japan is expected to announce an interest rate hike on Friday, pushing short-term borrowing rates to 0.5%, the highest level since the global 2008 financial crisis.

    As the rate hike is almost inevitable, the market’s attention is turning to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. Investors will closely follow his comments to gain insight into the regulator’s future plans regarding the pace and timing of interest rate hikes.

    Japan’s inflation remains above the 2.0% target, with the weak yen continuing to pressure import prices. In this situation, Ueda will likely emphasise the regulator’s resolution to proceed with tightening monetary conditions to curb inflationary pressures.

    RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.


    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

  10. #320
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    GBPUSD: the pair reversed upwards, securing above 1.2300

    The GBPUSD rate has established a local low on the price chart and is rising within an upward correction this week. Find out more in our analysis for 22 January 2025.

    GBPUSD technical analysis

    On the H4 chart, the GBPUSD pair is experiencing an upward correction after rebounding from the 1.2100-1.2140 support area, with the Alligator indicator pointing to growth. The daily trend remains downward, suggesting the price could continue to decline once the current correction is complete.



    The GBPUSD pair has risen above 1.2300 within the current upward correction.

    Read more - GBPUSD Forecast

    Attention!
    Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

    Sincerely,
    The RoboForex Team

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