Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

AUDUSD 4H Chart Signals Reversal Potential

The AUD/USD forex pair, commonly known as the "Aussie," is one of the most actively traded pairs in the market, influenced heavily by commodity prices, interest rate expectations, and macroeconomic data from both Australia and the U.S. Today’s focus is on the Melbourne Institute CPI and Private Sector Credit releases, which could boost the Australian Dollar if inflation and credit data surprise to the upside. Meanwhile, the U.S. Chicago PMI and speeches from Fed officials Bostic and Goolsbee may strengthen the USD if they adopt a hawkish stance, making today crucial for short-term AUD-USD direction based on these key economic drivers.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
As observed in the AUD/USD 4-hour chart, the pair has been experiencing a broader bullish trend over the long term, albeit with intermittent corrections. Recently, price action surged strongly from the 0.63755 support zone, aligning with a significant volume increase, and is now retracing slightly after touching the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands. The latest candle is green and has rebounded from the middle Bollinger Band and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6511—indicating renewed bullish momentum that could drive the AUD USD price toward the upper Bollinger Band and the key psychological resistance at the 1.000 Fibonacci level (~0.6580). However, the recent red volume bars suggest selling pressure, which warrants caution. The MACD line is slightly above the signal line but flattening, while the histogram shows weakening bullish momentum—traders should watch for confirmation before further upside continuation.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

US500 price action analysis post NFP release

The US500, also commonly referred to as the S&P 500 or SPX, is a benchmark index tracking the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Known as the “broad market index,” it serves as a barometer for U.S. equity markets and the health of the broader economy. In forex and index trading, it plays a key role in global risk sentiment and is closely watched by traders, especially during periods of economic announcements and central bank policy updates. Fundamentally, today's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and related labor market data will heavily influence the US500 price action. Strong NFP numbers and rising wages would reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially boosting the U.S. dollar while pressuring equities due to future rate hike fears. Conversely, softer labor data might give equities a bullish push as traders bet on rate cuts or a more dovish Fed stance. Additionally, ISM and PMI services data, along with Raphael Bostic’s speech on monetary policy, are likely to inject further volatility. As inflation and employment remain at the center of Fed policy, today's data holds the potential to reshape market sentiment on the S&P500 daily chart technical and fundamental outlook.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the US500 H4 chart shows the index in a strong bullish uptrend, having reached a new all-time high at approximately 6276.43, with price action riding a steep ascending trendline. The Ichimoku Cloud confirms bullish momentum: the cloud (Kumo) is green and expanding, indicating strength and support below. The price is trading well above the cloud and above the base line, and closely hugging the conversion line, a sign of sustained upward momentum. The lagging span is slightly above price, signaling continued bullish confirmation. Volume shows increasing participation, while the MACD histogram and MACD lines remain in positive territory, showing continued bullish momentum but also suggesting potential overextension as momentum starts to slow. This setup calls for cautious optimism: while the trend remains bullish, upcoming economic data could trigger a short-term correction or consolidation near the highs on the US500 H4 chart technical analysis.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

EURUSD analysis with key support and resistance

The EUR/USD, also known as the "Euro-Dollar" and "Fiber," is one of the most actively traded forex pairs, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. Its movement is heavily influenced by economic data and monetary policies from both the Eurozone and the United States. Today’s market activity is expected to be subdued due to the US holiday, Independence Day, which may result in low liquidity and erratic volatility. Key Eurozone data, including industrial orders, output, and retail sales, will provide insights into economic strength, potentially supporting the Euro if results exceed expectations. However, with reduced market activity in the US, significant movement may be limited unless unexpected data causes a surprise shift in sentiment.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EUR/USD price has been moving in an upward bullish trend, but after the significant bearish candle observed yesterday, the price has corrected partially. As seen in the Bollinger Bands, the price has dropped from the middle band to the lower band in a single candle, indicating short-term volatility. Following this drop, three green candles have emerged, with the most recent one trying to recover and reach the middle band once again. The chart highlights important support and resistance levels that have previously influenced price reactions. The MACD and histogram indicators show some bullish momentum, but caution is advised given the market's current state of lower liquidity due to the US holiday.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

UK100 Forex Trading Insights with Bollinger Bands

The UK100, commonly known as the FTSE 100 or 'Footsie', represents the 100 largest companies by market capitalization listed on the London Stock Exchange, making it a crucial indicator of the UK's economic health. Traders closely watch this index for forex trading signals and currency strength analysis. Fundamentally, today's key event is the release of the Halifax Bank of Scotland House Price Index (HBOS HPI), a significant indicator of the housing market's health. A higher-than-forecast reading will likely boost investor sentiment and support GBP currency pairs, positively influencing the UK100 due to increased investor confidence and economic optimism. Additionally, traders should pay attention to developments from the annual BRICS summit, as geopolitical events can affect investor risk appetite and consequently impact the UK100 price movements.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically analyzing the UK100 H4 chart, after breaking the significant support at 8738.78 and retesting it multiple times, the index has initiated an ascending channel signaling a bullish trend. The price currently rests at the channel's lower boundary, coinciding with the middle Bollinger Band, providing robust support as evidenced by the latest green candle. Bollinger Bands indicate volatility contracting, suggesting a potential imminent expansion and continuation upward within the channel. The Parabolic SAR indicator currently aligns below price action, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI is moderately positioned around the neutral 50 level, signaling room for potential upward momentum. Additionally, the MACD histogram is diminishing in negative territory, suggesting weakening bearish momentum and a potential bullish crossover, strengthening the outlook for bullish price action.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

USDJPY Forex Pair Resistance Levels and Correction Forecast

The USD-JPY forex pair, also known as the "Gopher," represents the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. This pair is a widely traded currency pair reflecting economic relationships and market sentiment between the US and Japan. Today's upcoming news includes important releases from the US NFIB Small Business Index and consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve, indicating economic health and consumer confidence. A positive reading in these indicators typically strengthens the USD. Meanwhile, from Japan, key data include bank lending figures, the adjusted current account, and the Eco Watchers Current Index from the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office, respectively, which indicate consumer and business confidence. Positive results can strengthen the Yen, creating potential volatility and trading opportunities in USD/JPY.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD-JPY H4 chart, after testing the upper resistance line of the ascending channel, the price appears poised for a correction before potentially retesting resistance levels. Bollinger Bands have widened, signaling increased volatility and supporting the likelihood of a price correction. If a correction occurs, the middle line of the channel could serve as support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting potential bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram bars are diminishing, hinting at decreasing bullish strength, which further confirms the likelihood of a short-term correction.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

ND100 H4 chart signals new breakout level

The Nasdaq 100, also known as ND100 or the US Tech Index, represents the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, making it a popular instrument in Forex and CFD trading. Renowned for its volatility and tech-driven composition, it often reacts strongly to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve announcements. Today, traders are closely watching the Nasdaq 100 as several impactful U.S. fundamentals are due for release. The spotlight is on Initial Jobless Claims, where a lower-than-expected figure would support the USD and possibly pressure ND100. Additionally, three FOMC speakers—Musalem, Waller, and Daly—are scheduled to discuss the economic outlook, and any hawkish tone could hint at tighter monetary policy, reinforcing the dollar and possibly leading to a short-term dip in equities. Secondary data, including Natural Gas Storage and the 30-Year Bond Auction, may influence risk sentiment, but labor data and Fed commentary are expected to drive the main price action in ND100 trading today.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the ND100 is maintaining a strong bullish trend on both short- and long-term timeframes, currently hovering near its all-time high (ATH). As shown on the H4 chart, price action is steadily climbing along the ascending trendline, with candles moving in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, frequently touching the upper band, indicating sustained buying pressure. Immediate support lies around 23,000 and 22,800, with 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (22,344). The Williams %R indicator is at -17.01, entering overbought territory, which may signal a potential short-term consolidation or pullback, especially if today's fundamentals trigger a shift in sentiment. However, overall market structure remains bullish, and if the price breaks above the current resistance zone, it could pave the way for a new all-time high, reinforcing the Nasdaq 100 ND100 bullish trend.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

GBPUSD Price Action Analysis on 4H Chart

The GBP/USD currency pair, known as "Cable," is one of the most actively traded pairs, reflecting the economic dynamics between the UK and the US. Today, the UK releases key macroeconomic data including GDP, Manufacturing and Industrial Production, GVA, Construction Output, and Trade Balance—each a vital indicator of economic strength. Stronger-than-expected figures are bullish for the pound, potentially driving GBPUSD higher. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Budget report may influence dollar sentiment, especially if it signals widening deficits. Together, these releases are likely to impact GBPUSD’s price action with increased volatility and directional momentum in today's session.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the GBPUSD H4 chart, the pair remains in a long-term bullish trend but has recently corrected into a short-term bearish channel. Price dropped from the 0% Fibonacci level through 0.236 and briefly touched 0.382, aligning with the rising trendline support, which held firm on two tests. It’s now consolidating between 0.382 and 0.236 Fib levels, trading below the Bollinger Band midline after bouncing off the lower band. Volume shows fading bullish strength, and the last candle is red and short. The Williams %R at -49.53 signals market indecision. A breakout above 1.36117 or below 1.35259 will likely confirm the next directional move.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

Nikkei 225 Trendline Retest Analysis and Targets

Nikkei 225, commonly referred to as JAP 225, is a prominent stock market index representing the top 225 publicly traded companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, often nicknamed "Nikkei." For forex traders, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is closely monitored alongside Nikkei 225 movements, particularly in currency pairs. Today's fundamental analysis revolves around crucial upcoming economic indicators from Japan. The Cabinet Office is releasing the latest Machine Orders data, a significant leading indicator of manufacturing activity. METI is also providing fresh insights on Industrial Production and the Tertiary Industry Activity Index, both serving as barometers of Japan's overall economic health. Higher-than-expected readings in these indicators could bolster confidence in Japan’s economic recovery, positively impacting JPY strength and potentially influencing bullish sentiment for Nikkei 225, highlighting a positive market reaction due to robust production and business service activities.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the uploaded H4 chart, the Nikkei 225 index shows a notable long-term uptrend line currently undergoing a corrective phase. Price action has approached this trend line, finding initial support and suggesting the possibility of a continuation of the upward trajectory. Given the strength of current momentum, it appears unlikely that the trend line will be decisively broken on the initial attempt, suggesting potential retests before a confirmed breakdown towards the 38,800 support area. Conversely, if bullish momentum resumes, supported by technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands indicating a tightening range and Parabolic SAR signaling potential trend reversals, the uptrend could target Fibonacci extension zones around 40,250 initially and subsequently 40,750. RSI remains moderately positioned, reflecting balanced market sentiment and potential for sustained bullish or bearish developments based on upcoming momentum.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

USD-CAD bullish trend or breakout scenario

The USD/CAD forex pair, also known by its popular nickname the "Loonie," represents the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar. As a commodity-sensitive pair heavily influenced by oil prices and interest rate differentials, USDCAD often reacts strongly to economic data releases and central bank speeches from both nations. This makes it a vital focus for traders looking at daily chart technical and fundamental analysis to capture mid-term price action moves. Today, USD fundamentals dominate the landscape with multiple Federal Reserve speakers (Bowman, Barr, Barkin, Collins) scheduled to speak, potentially offering hawkish clues that could support the dollar. Meanwhile, traders also digest recent CPI data, reinforcing expectations for the Fed's careful inflation-containment strategy, which could drive US yields higher and underpin USD strength. For the CAD, no major releases today shift focus to oil markets and global risk sentiment. Consequently, any more hawkish-than-expected rhetoric from Fed officials could fuel upside momentum for USD/CAD, while the Loonie remains vulnerable without fresh supportive domestic data. This sets the stage for key technical interactions on the USD CAD daily and H4 charts.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Looking at the USD/CAD H4 chart technical analysis, we observe that candles have been in a gradual bullish trend since July 3, consistently gravitating toward the rising support line. The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the candles, hinting at lingering bearish pressure despite the upward channel. The RSI indicator at 57.84 level, suggesting mild bullish momentum but not yet overbought. Meanwhile, the MACD shows the MACD and signal lines touching, with a slightly negative histogram turning faintly green on the last bar—pointing to indecision. Overall, the price is at a crucial juncture: it may soon touch the support line to bounce and continue its bullish price action, or break below, potentially entering a side or bearish phase. Traders watching the USD/CAD H4 chart will closely monitor these signals combined with today’s fundamental drivers to gauge the next direction.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

S&P 500 Price Action Targets Upper Bollinger Band

The US500, widely known as the S&P 500, is a key forex pair representing the strength and economic health of the United States, often referred to by traders as "SPX" or "S&P." Today, the index faces significant fundamental influences from several critical economic indicators, including Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and speeches from influential Federal Reserve officials like John Williams and Adriana Kugler. Hawkish commentary from these speakers would typically bolster the USD, indirectly affecting the S&P 500 due to shifts in monetary policy expectations. Positive retail sales data and lower-than-expected jobless claims will likely support bullish market sentiment, reflecting increased consumer spending and robust employment conditions, respectively, further contributing to optimism surrounding the S&P 500.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the technical outlook of the S&P 500 H4 chart reveals that after breaking above the 6112 resistance level, the price has entered into a sideways consolidation phase. Currently, the price struggles with the midline of both the Bollinger Bands and the horizontal channel. Given the preceding bullish movement, the technical bias suggests a higher probability of the price action continuing its upward trajectory rather than reversing. The immediate price action target lies at the upper Bollinger Band, coinciding with the upper boundary of the consolidation channel. The Bollinger Bands indicate potential volatility expansion, while the MACD histogram approaching neutrality reflects indecision and consolidation. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator, rising from oversold territory, signals a possible bullish continuation, supporting the expectation of further upward price action.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore