Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

BTCUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.25.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTC-USD pair is primarily driven by ongoing developments in regulatory landscapes and macroeconomic conditions. Today, traders will closely monitor remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler and New York Fed President John Williams. Hawkish statements could strengthen the USD, potentially impacting BTCUSD negatively. Additionally, data on the US housing market, including the S&P Corelogic CS Indices and the House Price Index (HPI), may cause volatility, reflecting investor sentiment towards the USD and subsequently influencing Bitcoin's price action.


Price Action:
The BTC/USD H4 chart indicates a significant bullish breakout from its previous downtrend, marked clearly by crossing above the downward trendline (red). Currently, the price action has encountered resistance at the upper boundary of an ascending channel, highlighting a potential retracement scenario. The most recent candle, a bearish signal, further supports the probability of a short-term corrective move towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel before resuming the upward momentum.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI currently stands at 67.71, nearing the overbought territory of 70. This signals that BTCUSD may experience limited upside potential in the short term, reinforcing expectations of a temporary pullback or consolidation period.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains positive, though bars are slightly shortening, indicating a potential weakening in bullish momentum. Traders should observe the MACD line closely for signs of a bearish crossover, which would confirm a shift towards downward pressure.
Stochastic Oscillator: Currently reading at 87.40, the Stochastic indicator clearly signals an overbought condition. This technical evidence strongly supports the likelihood of a forthcoming corrective move or a temporary bearish reversal before bulls regain control.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies near $84,200, the lower boundary of the ascending channel, followed by a stronger support around the previous resistance-turned-support at $82,260.
Resistance: Initial resistance is currently observed at $87,870, coinciding with the top boundary of the ascending channel. Breaking above this could target the psychological resistance at $90,000.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTC-USD on the H4 timeframe remains overall bullish following a breakout from a prior downtrend. However, the current technical indicators strongly suggest a potential short-term correction due to overbought conditions. Traders should exercise caution and closely monitor upcoming fundamental events from the US economic calendar, which might significantly impact short-term volatility. Proper risk management is recommended during these potentially turbulent trading conditions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.25.2025

GBPUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.26.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD currency pair remains a key focus for traders navigating both UK and US economic shifts. Today, significant UK inflation data was released, with CPI y/y holding steady at 3.0%, while Core CPI came in slightly lower than forecast at 3.6%, suggesting inflationary pressures may be softening. RPI and HPI also declined marginally, which could reduce pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates aggressively. Adding to the volatility, the UK government’s Annual Budget Release is due later today, which may trigger fiscal policy changes impacting GBP sentiment. On the US side, market attention shifts to Core Durable Goods Orders, which came in at 0.2% versus a flat forecast, and Durable Goods Orders dropped by -1.1%, under expectations. Meanwhile, upcoming FOMC speeches and Crude Oil Inventories data may introduce short-term fluctuations in USD value. This mixed data outlook underpins a cautious tone in today's GBPUSD H4 fundamental chart analysis.



Price Action:
The GBPUSD H4 chart reveals a textbook price action setup. After a strong bullish impulse that lifted the pair above the 1.30 psychological zone, price corrected and entered a bearish flag channel, showing signs of consolidation and exhaustion. The price has tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level twice but failed to close convincingly below it, highlighting it as a key pivot zone. Now, GBPUSD is attempting a third break beneath this level, and a successful move could accelerate downside momentum. The current structure fits within a bearish continuation pattern following an impulsive move up—often a signal that more downside correction is likely in the short term.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram is marginally below the zero line, and both MACD and signal lines are in bearish alignment. This setup suggests bearish momentum may soon gain traction if the MACD begins widening negatively.
RSI (14): The RSI is currently hovering around the neutral zone (50.34), slightly tilted downward, reflecting weakening bullish momentum and potential readiness for a deeper bearish wave. If RSI dips below 45, it would confirm increasing selling pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Key support levels for GBPUSD on the H4 chart include 1.2905 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.2825 (38.2%), and 1.2750 (50%), marking critical zones for potential bearish continuation.
Resistance: Key resistance levels for GBPUSD are 1.3010 (channel top) and 1.3060 (swing high), both acting as major hurdles for bullish continuation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the GBPUSD pair, as observed on the H4 chart, is entering a sensitive zone where momentum indicators and price structure suggest potential bearish continuation. The combination of soft UK inflation data and cautious US economic indicators adds weight to this bearish sentiment. The bearish flag pattern, repeated tests of Fibonacci support, and weakening RSI and MACD signals all point to a possible breakdown scenario. However, traders should remain cautious ahead of the UK Annual Budget Release and FOMC member speeches which may cause sharp intraday volatility. This GBPUSD H4 technical and fundamental analysis highlights the importance of monitoring upcoming price action around the 23.6% Fibonacci level as a decision point.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.26.2025

GOLDUSD (XAUUSD) H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.27.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
GOLD-USD (XAU/USD) is currently experiencing volatility influenced by today's significant economic news releases from the US. Upcoming remarks by US President Donald Trump concerning auto tariffs and the scheduled interview with Newsmax TV may create substantial fluctuations in USD valuation, directly impacting GOLD USD price movements. Additionally, critical economic indicators such as GDP data, Initial Jobless Claims, GDP Price Index, Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Pending Home Sales, and Natural Gas Storage reports will further dictate market sentiment and trading volumes. Traders should remain cautious and monitor these fundamental catalysts closely for potential trading opportunities.


Price Action:
The H4 chart for XAU/USD indicates a corrective scenario, with the price recently breaking below key support lines and now hovering around a crucial horizontal support zone. This level aligns closely with the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting potential for a short-term consolidation or possible reversal. Recent candles display indecision, reflecting market uncertainty as buyers and sellers struggle to establish control. This price action indicates a pivotal moment for GOLD-USD, warranting careful monitoring for confirmation signals.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly, indicating low market volatility and signaling an impending breakout. Currently, GOLDUSD price is near the middle Bollinger Band (moving average), suggesting equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Traders should watch closely for a decisive breakout from the bands to determine the next significant market direction.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI currently shows clear bearish divergence, indicating weakening bullish momentum. At a level of around 49.82, RSI is neutral but the divergence suggests a potential downward corrective movement. This confirms the price action signal of possible further bearish pressure.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the current price candles, clearly signaling bearish sentiment and suggesting the short-term trend favors sellers. Traders should view this as confirmation of the potential continuation of downward movement unless dots shift below price candles.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD histogram bars are decreasing and approaching the zero line, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a potential bearish crossover. If a crossover occurs, this would strengthen the bearish outlook significantly and provide further confirmation for downward price potential.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate horizontal support is clearly defined around the 3003.55 level, a critical zone aligning with the lower Bollinger Band, providing a strong base for short-term price action.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is identified around the 3035.00 mark, where the upper Bollinger Band and recent trend line converge, representing significant technical hurdles for bullish attempts.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The current technical scenario for XAUUSD on the H4 timeframe strongly indicates caution due to a potential bearish corrective move. Bearish divergence on RSI, Parabolic SAR indications, and weakening MACD histogram all collectively confirm this potential downside risk. However, significant fundamental catalysts from the US today could introduce volatility, altering the current technical setup. Traders are advised to carefully observe the price reaction around key support at 3003.55 and resistance at 3035.00, considering both technical confirmations and fundamental developments.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.27.2025

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.28.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the USD-CAD currency pair is likely to experience increased volatility due to important economic announcements from both the US and Canada. From the US side, traders will focus closely on Federal Reserve members Thomas Barkin, Michael Barr, and Raphael Bostic's speeches, which may provide insights into future monetary policy direction, influencing the USD significantly. Moreover, the release of key economic data such as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Disposable Personal Income, Consumer Spending, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will play a critical role in gauging inflation and economic health. From Canada, GDP data from Statistics Canada will also be crucial, potentially impacting the CAD substantially as it reflects overall economic activity.


Price Action:
The USD/CAD price action in the H4 timeframe indicates the pair is currently trapped within a classic triangle pattern. Recently, the price has approached the upper descending resistance line of this triangle and reacted to it, creating bearish pressure at the resistance. This price behavior could potentially push USDCAD down towards the lower support boundary of the triangle, near the level of 1.42791. The last candle’s red color serves as confirmation of the bearish reaction, suggesting cautious trading as price could break out from either side of the triangle.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots for the last six candles are positioned below the current candle formation, indicating the presence of short-term bullish sentiment. However, given the recent bearish reaction from the resistance line, traders should remain cautious and await further confirmation.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 51.45, signaling a neutral momentum as it is situated close to the mid-level (50). This indicates a market without immediate overbought or oversold conditions, thus allowing potential room for price movements in either direction based on upcoming economic data.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD shows diminishing negative histogram bars approaching the zero line, suggesting a decreasing bearish momentum. Traders should watch closely for a possible bullish crossover, which could indicate a shift towards a bullish outlook, provided the triangle resistance line is convincingly breached.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic indicator currently reads around 75.85, showing proximity to overbought conditions. Given that the %K line is nearing the upper bound, it implies that there might be limited upside potential in the short term, thus supporting the case for a possible bearish pullback towards support levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate technical support is located at the triangle’s bottom boundary around 1.42791, a significant zone where the price has previously reacted.
Resistance: The nearest resistance remains the descending trend line of the triangle pattern, currently near the 1.43060 mark, an important technical barrier for the bulls.


Conclusion and Consideration:
USD CAD H4 analysis currently suggests a cautious bearish outlook, primarily driven by the reaction at the resistance line within the triangle formation. Technical indicators display mixed signals; however, the price action strongly favors a potential short-term downside movement towards 1.42791. Traders should remain vigilant ahead of significant US and Canadian economic data and speeches today, which could lead to breakout moves from the triangle. Proper risk management and monitoring of the mentioned technical and fundamental aspects are advised.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.28.2025

EURGBP Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.31.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, EURGBP traders should closely monitor economic releases from both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. The Eurozone is releasing the Import Price Index, Real Retail Sales, and CPI data from Germany and Italy, significant indicators affecting inflation and consumer spending. Stronger-than-forecast figures typically enhance the Euro's strength, reflecting economic resilience. Concurrently, GBP traders should watch closely the Bank of England's data on Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, and Consumer Credit, which influence economic growth and consumer confidence. Higher-than-expected results generally support GBP strength.


Price Action:
The EUR-GBP H4 timeframe analysis demonstrates a prevailing bearish trend, although recent candles indicate bullish corrective momentum moving upward towards the Ichimoku Cloud. After four consecutive bullish candles, the latest candle has turned bearish, reflecting a potential bearish reaction around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Traders should observe whether price action confirms a bearish reversal at this critical resistance or resumes upward momentum towards cloud penetration.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: Currently, the EUR GBP price is approaching the cloud resistance, indicating a potential struggle between bullish correction and overall bearish sentiment. Price rejection from the cloud boundary would reinforce bearish continuation signals.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is narrowing toward the zero line, indicating reduced bearish momentum and potential for bullish pressure. However, as it remains negative, bearish sentiment is still technically intact.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI stands at 57.20, indicating neutral-to-bullish momentum. Given the absence of overbought or oversold conditions, the indicator suggests price still has space for potential upward movement, but caution is recommended at current resistance levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is seen at the 0.8330 price level, aligning with recent lows and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Resistance: The current resistance stands at approximately 0.8370, corresponding with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and Ichimoku Cloud bottom.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/GBP H4 technical and fundamental analysis indicates a critical decision point, as the pair tests key resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and Ichimoku Cloud. The short-term bullish correction could lose momentum if resistance holds firm. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data releases, which could substantially influence market volatility and directional bias. A clear breakout or rejection at current levels will provide better entry signals.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.31.2025

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.01.2025






Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, AUD/USD traders should closely monitor key economic events affecting both currencies. USD volatility is expected as Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin addresses monetary policy and economic outlook, which could influence market expectations about future interest rate decisions. Additionally, the release of significant economic data, including the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and JOLTS Job Openings, will provide crucial insights into the health of the US economy, potentially impacting USD strength. For AUD, important events include retail sales data and commodity price changes, crucial for gauging Australia's economic health and the strength of the Australian dollar.


Price Action:
The AUD-USD H4 chart currently indicates a bearish market environment. The price recently found strong horizontal support, and a clear pin bar formation emerged at this support zone. Following the pin bar, a bullish green candle appeared, suggesting a potential move upwards toward the resistance level above for retesting. Currently, the price is near the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, supporting the potential for an upward price correction toward resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands indicator on the AUD-USD H4 chart suggests the possibility of a corrective move, as the price touched the lower band. Typically, price action tends to revert towards the middle band after such scenarios. Additionally, the bands have widened significantly, implying high volatility, and may contract soon, potentially coinciding with price stabilization or consolidation.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the price, highlighting the continuation of bearish sentiment. However, a narrowing gap between price action and these dots could soon signal a reversal if bullish momentum strengthens.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently, the RSI indicator shows a reading of around 35, approaching oversold conditions. This reading signals weakening bearish momentum and suggests potential bullish corrective action in the near term.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows decreasing bearish momentum, indicating that sellers are losing control. A bullish crossover signal could appear soon, supporting upward corrective price action.
Williams %R: Williams %R has risen from extreme oversold territory (-70), suggesting buyers are regaining strength. A continued move upward from this level could further validate bullish sentiment.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate horizontal support for AUD/USD is clearly established at around 0.62370, evidenced by recent price action and pin bar formation.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is identified around the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at approximately 0.62670. A breakout above this level could target higher resistance areas near the 0.62820 level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the AUD VS. USD H4 analysis indicates bearish sentiment currently prevails; however, technical indicators strongly support potential bullish corrective action. Traders should closely monitor today's key US and Australian economic releases and Fed speeches for volatility catalysts. Risk management remains critical due to anticipated market sensitivity.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.01.2025

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.02.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURUSD pair today may exhibit heightened volatility, with several key economic events scheduled for both the Eurozone and the United States. For the euro, early figures such as the French Government Budget Balance and Spanish Unemployment Change might influence sentiment, while the German 10-year bond auction could reflect market confidence in the Eurozone’s financial stability. On the U.S. front, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Factory Orders are critical indicators of economic momentum, and any surprise in these numbers could sway the dollar’s strength. Additional volatility could stem from speeches by President Trump and FOMC Member Kugler, as traders look for hints on future monetary policy direction. This confluence of fundamental events makes the EURUSD daily forecast highly reactive to news throughout the trading day.


Price Action:
On the EURUSD H4 chart, the price continues to trend within a well-defined descending channel. The pair recently tested the upper boundary of this bearish channel and failed to break above, respecting it as a static resistance zone. Notably, the ascending support trendline from the latest bullish wave has been broken, suggesting a shift in short-term momentum toward bearish territory. The price is now consolidating around 1.07800, and a decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.07340 is probable if bearish pressure persists. This aligns with current EUR/USD H4 chart patterns, highlighting a possible continuation of the downtrend unless significant news alters sentiment.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram shows slight bullish momentum fading, while the MACD and signal lines are converging below the zero line. This could signal a possible bearish crossover soon, strengthening the case for further downside. The weakening histogram bars point to diminishing buying interest, a crucial
RSI (14): The RSI currently stands at 46.03, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish condition. It is below the 50 mark, suggesting that bears are gaining traction without yet entering oversold territory. The EURUSD RSI indicator reflects weakening momentum but room for further downside before a reversal is considered.
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud on the EURUSD H4 chart has started forming a bullish wave, with the price moving inside the cloud. The baseline (Kijun-sen) is currently at 44.3, signaling early bullish momentum, though a clear breakout is still needed for confirmation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The 1.07285 level stands out as a critical support, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and serving as a potential pivot point for bullish rebounds if selling pressure subsides.
Resistance: The 1.08530 resistance marks the top of the descending channel and a recent swing high, making it a key barrier for bulls to overcome to signal a potential trend reversal.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURUSD technical forecast for 02.04.2025 suggests a continuation of bearish bias within the descending channel on the H4 timeframe. The break below the recent bullish trendline and rejection from static resistance zones increase the likelihood of a bearish wave toward the 1.07340 Fibonacci support. With multiple high-impact economic events lined up today for both EUR and USD, including ADP jobs data, Factory Orders, and central bank speakers, market sentiment may shift rapidly. Traders should monitor key support at 1.07285 and resistance at 1.08530 closely, adjusting their strategies accordingly based on real-time developments.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EURUSD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.02.2025