Analytics News and Market Forecast

BNP Paribas suggested to make a short with EUR/USD with 1.0900 target and 1.1630 stop loss, and it is based on 3 fundamental reasons:
"Further risk-on – Eurozone capital outflows resume and markets start to reprice Fed hikes = EURUSD lower."
"Stable risk – Without a strong impulse from risk sentiment, the eurozone’s trade surplus is probably still putting some natural upward pressure on EURUSD. But with valuations already expensive, EUR funding should be more attractive = no clear signal for EURUSD."
"Return of risk-off – EURUSD continues to rally, which forces the ECB to step up dovish rhetoric and ultimately ease policy = EURUSD first higher, then lower."


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W1 price is on bearish ranging between the following key support/resistance levels:
Fibo resistance level at 1.5930 located near 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area of the chart;
Fibo support level at 1.5106 located far below 100-SMA/200-SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart.
RSI indicator is estimating the ranging market condition to be continuing. "It’s all about the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs. The long term picture in GBP/USD is bearish due to the behavior at this line and its associated parallels. The rate is at resistance now from the line that extends off of the 2014 and 2015 highs. A push above probably delays anything significantly bearish until near 1.60."
If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.5106 so the bearish market condition will be continuing.


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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA and below 100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 1.0798 and Fibo resistance level at 1.1706:
"Support is estimated in the mid-1.0800s. Resistance is estimated in the mid-1.1400s (May and June high are 1.1435/65). A break on either side would indicate potential for a larger move."
"Big picture, EUR/USD has worked higher from long term support but failed again at the 55 week average this week. This is the same average that the rally failed at in August…and November 1997. The November 1997 parallel is interesting because that point marked the short covering rally from extreme weakness into the August 1997 low."


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EUR: Bullish
"We believe that EURUSD could head higher before we see pushback from the ECB. Indeed, we don’t expect anything from next week’s meeting. Our base case is for no further easing, but in the tail risk that the central bank does decide to do more, this would be likely to come in December alongside the ECB’s new forecasts. With further action from the ECB unlikely in the near term, and US rates falling, EUR is becoming less attractive as a short term funder, offering it support."
From the technical point of view - the price is on primary bearish market condition for the ranging between the following key support/resistance levels:
1.1956 resistance level, and
1.0607 support level.


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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA and below 100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 0.6907 and Fibo resistance level at 0.8164:
"COT observations and a tweezer bottom candlestick pattern in AUD/USD on the weekly chart indicate reversal risk towards .7440."
".7440 could influence for a pullback but ‘decent’ resistance may not reside until .7532-.7625, the zone defined by the February and March lows."
If the price will break Fibo support level at 0.6907 so the bearish condition will be continuing.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 0.8164 from below to above so the primary bullish reversal will be started.


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W1 price is located to be above 200 period SMA and above 100 period SMA for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging between the following key support/resistance levels: Descending triangle pattern was formed for the price to be broken for the secondary correction to be started.

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US Dollar - "The housing data, national activity figure from the Chicago Fed and manufacturing survey are far from top tier event risk. As for the round of Fed speeches, we have seen confusion and skepticism rise from the conflicting views from the various voters and non-voters. Far more capable should be some of the international events. Chinese 3Q GDP will be a great risk spark as one of the primary concerns for global investors. The ECB rate decision will also establish the opposing extreme of the monetary policy scale. Any whiff of a QE upgrade from Draghi, and EURUSD will leverage a broad Dollar move."


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W1 price is located below 200 period SMA and below 100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition. The price is breaking ascending triangle pattern from below to above with Fibo resistance level at 0.6892 as the next target:
"NZD/USD triggered a short term double bottom and blew through the target. Given the long term picture, dips should be bought. There probably isn’t solid resistance (as in a place that could cap the bird for at least several weeks or more) until near .70."
".70 represents channel resistance and the 200 day average."
If the price will break Fibo support level at 0.6084 so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 0.6892 from below to above so we may see the secondary bear market rally will be started.


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The price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following key support/resistance levels: Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the future possible breakout of the key resistance levels from below to above.

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The price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
23.06 resistance located below Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on the chart. If the price breaks this level from below to above so we may see the bullish reversal to be started.
13.96 support level located far below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart. If the price breaks this level so the bearish trend will be continuing.
Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging condition by direction.


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