Weekly Outlook: 2017, September 24 - October 01

The US dollar rallied on the Fed decision but its strength faded away. What’s next? The German elections, durable goods orders, and several GDP publications stand out as Q3 draws to a close. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. New Zealand elections: Saturday. The polls indicate that everything is possible.
2. German elections: Sunday, results are due before markets open in Asia. All in all, a victory for Merkel would be positive for the euro, but this is mostly priced in.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. A score of 119.6 is projected.
4. US New Home Sales: Tuesday, 14:00. An increase to 591K is on the cards.
5. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. A more modest rise of 0.2% is forecast.
6. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the interest rate at 1.75% once again. The RBNZ likes to complain about the strength of the currency, and this time, the elections will have a material effect on the exchange rate, thus determining the reaction from Graeme Wheeler and his colleagues. They usually “make the trend their friend”. So, a drop in the NZD could provide an opportunity to push it even lower, while a rise in the currency would be hard to mitigate.
7. US GDP (final): Thursday, 12:30. A small upgrade to 3.1% is on the cards.
8. UK GDP (final): Friday, 8:30. This will likely be confirmed in the final read.
9. Euro-zone inflation (flash): Friday, 9:00. Higher levels of inflation can shorten the process, while protracted low inflation can slow it down.
10. US Core PCE Price Index: Friday, 12:30. A monthly rise of 0.2% is expected.
11. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30.

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