TheNews

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Another 180K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless rate may boost the appeal of the greenback and trigger further losses in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2016.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though Fed Funds Futures highlight a 12% probability for a September rate-hike, a further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage central bank officials to adopt a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ However, an unexpected slowdown in wage growth may keep the FOMC on the sidelines throughout 2016 as the central bank warns ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Increases 180K or More, Labor Force Participation Improves

• Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
• If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Disappoints

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD

• EUR/USD may extend the rebound from the end of July following the string of failed attempts to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0960 (23.6% retracement) to 1.0970 (38.2% retracement), while price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breakout of the bearish formations from earlier this year.
• Key Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
• Key Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

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