TechnoMeter

EUR/USD is coming perilously close to carving out a bearish price sequence in the days ahead. We’ve been discussing quite a bit lately the impact of the 2008 trend-line, and as long as the euro stays below it will struggle. The struggle could turn into an outright sell-off if a bounce soon fails.



The double-top at the 2008 trend-line put into motion the notion we may be seeing a top form at an important line of resistance. And now with EUR/USD possibly putting in a lower-low from earlier last month, in the days ahead the euro may be ready to turn down from the long-term trend-line for an extended period of time.

The trend since last year is still pointed up, but a strong turn down will have important support by way of the 2017 high and trend-line from April come under fire. A solid close below 12100 is seen as a possible catalyst for a sizable unwind by large speculators in the futures market. Positioning has been hovering in record territory for a while and suggests on a turn of trend there will be plenty of fuel to drive the single-currency lower.

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