FXstreet

When taking a glance at the performance of investments in stocks, currencies, and commodities -- which is compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the second quarter of 2018 -- one is struck by the fact that all of the top five performers were commodities. Lean hogs took the top honors, followed by crude oil.

Crude’s position didn’t surprise me. Way back in February 2016 -- when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $26/bbl. -- I was confident that crude oil would make a relentless climb. How could I have been so confident then, and confident now, that today’s WTI price of $69.50/bbl. will climb to $75/bbl. by year’s end?

To answer these questions, we must have a model -- a way of thinking about the problem. In this case, the starting point is Roy W. Jastram’s classic study, The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-2007. In that work, Jastram finds that gold maintains its purchasing power over long periods of time, with the prices of other commodities adapting to the price of gold.

more...