ForeCastle

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Looks Outward for Direction Cues as Fed Outlook Firms
An all-but-certain Fed rate path in the near term may see the US Dollar looking outward for direction cues. Ample international event risk offers no shortage of possible drivers.



Japanese Yen: BoJ Optimistic but Inflation Still Subdued: Taper Not Yet a Topic of Concern
Yen weakness was a pervasive theme across FX markets this week, as the currency dropped every day against the Euroand four out of five days against both the British Pound and the U.S. Dollar.



Canadian Dollar Forecast: Poor Jobs Data + Weak Oil = Further Slippage
Friday’s news that Canadian employment rose by a mere 3,200 in April, well below both expectations of a 10,000 increase and the previous month’s 19,400 advance, was deeply disappointing.



British Pound Forecast: BoE ’Super Thursday’ Event, Fed Rheotic to Test GBP/USD Relief Rally
The BoE’s ‘Super Thursday’ event along with another week of Fed rhetoric may shake up the relief rally in GBP/USD amid the deviating paths for monetary policy.



Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar to Struggle as Commodities Falter
The Australian Dollar would probably be doing a lot better if domestic news were all that mattered. It isn’t, sadly for the bulls. Interest-rate differentials and commodity prices matter too.



New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Kiwi Under The RBNZ’s Thumb
After hitting a 10-month low on April 28, the New Zealand Dollar enjoyed a rare but brief fillip this this week, first on a better-than-expected jobs report, then on news that inflation expectations had risen.



Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Search for Support Post FOMC- All Eyes on France
Gold prices fell for the third consecutive week with the precious metal down more than 3.15% to trade at 1227 ahead of the New York close on Friday.



Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Runs to Resistance ahead of Trade, CPI Reports
The Chinese Yuan extended losses against the U.S. Dollar for the third consecutive week in the offshore market, although it has not yet broken the key resistance level of 6.8980.



Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Nosedive to 5-Month Lows Discouraging for OPEC
Crude Oil was a big theme of the reflation trade that favored proof of pending economic growth as commodity prices pushed higher in Q4/Q1.



Equities Forecast: CAC 40, DAX, S&P 500 - French Election, ’Sell the News’ in the Works?
The election. Will we see a Macron victory as expected or a surprise win by Le Pen? In the likely event we see Macron become the next president of France, a gap higher in the CAC is a reasonable expectation.



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