1Finance

US Dollar: "The more proactive, though less scalable, instigator for the Dollar is changes in monetary policy forecasts. This week docket isn’t shabby for market movers – retail sales, UofM sentiment survey, upstream inflation reports, small business optimism and a July labor conditions aggregate – but none of the offerings carry the mark of a decisive view changer. With the market still not fully pricing a Fed hike until January while the Fed sees two this year, there is premium to tap. Yet, it will be difficult to tap this week."

USDJPY: "With USD/JPY snapping back from a fresh weekly of 125.06, the lack of following-through behind the NFP reaction raises the risk for a larger pullback, and the exchange rate may face a further consolidation in the days ahead should we see another mixed batch of data prints coming out of the U.S. economy. On the other hand, key developments pointing to a stronger recovery may put the dollar-yen on a more bullish course and may spur a test of 2015 highs (125.84) as the Fed keeps the door open for a September liftoff."

GBPUSD: "A notable drop in FX volatility prices suggests that we are relatively unlikely to see big moves in the days ahead. Yet that could quite clearly change on any unexpected news out of key economic figures."

AUDUSD: "A handful of Chinese releases is also noteworthy. July’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers are due to cross the wires. As with the US, data flow out of the behemoth East Asian economy has improved in recent months. At minimum, this hints that the probability for particularly dour results that raise concerns about negative spillover to Australia is comparatively low relative to the alternative."

GOLD: "Weekly momentum has also continued to hold above the 30-threshold and as noted last week, gold remains vulnerable for a near-term recovery while above this region. Note that although prices are lower for a seventh consecutive week, gold has been unable to test the 5-year low made back on July 24th. Key resistance remains at 1145/50 with only a break above the upper median-line parallel off the yearly high invalidating the broader downside bias (bearish invalidation~ 1175). A break of the lows targets the 2010 low at 1044 backed by a key longer-term Fibonacci confluence lower down at 975/80."



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