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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, July 02 - July 09

EUR/USD finally made a breakthrough and reached the highest levels in over a year. Is this the beginning of a longer trend? The first week of July features PMIs and the ECB meeting minutes.

1. Manufacturing PMIs: Monday morning: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, the final French figure at 7:50, final German read at 7:55 and the final euro-zone number at 8:00.
2. Unemployment Rate: Monday, 9:00. A repeat of this number is on the cards.
3. Spanish Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 7:00. A big drop of 120.3K is expected now.
4. PPI: Tuesday, 9:00. A slide of 0.2% is projected.
5. Services PMIs: Wednesday morning: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, the final French figure at 7:50, final German read at 7:55 and the final euro-zone number at 8:00.
6. Retail Sales: Wednesday, 9:00.A bounce worth 1.8% is expected.
7. German Factory Orders: Thursday, 6:00.A bounce worth 1.8% is expected.
8. Retail PMI: Thursday, 8:10.
9. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30. Four weeks after the ECB decision, we get more details. In that June 8th meeting, the made small optimistic tweaks to its statement but also lowered inflation forecasts. Since then, Draghi made his Sintra speech that was much more optimistic. Will we hear some fear in the minutes?
10. German Industrial Production: Friday, 6:00. A rise of 0.4% is forecast.
11. French Trade Balance: Friday, 6:45. A narrower deficit of 5.1 billion is expected.

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