Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date: 1st July 2025.

Markets Rally into Q2 Close – What’s Fueling the Momentum?


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Treasuries and Wall Street ended June – and the second quarter – with strong momentum, closing firmly in positive territory. A combination of quarter-end buying, investor FOMO, and supportive macro drivers helped fuel the rally. Hopes for Fed rate cuts, easing inflationary pressures, renewed tariff negotiations, reduced geopolitical tensions, and optimism around a potential tax bill all played into the bullish mood.

In the bond market, yields fell notably. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 3.3 basis points to 3.715%, while the 10-year declined 4.3 basis points to 4.234% — both hitting their lowest levels since May 1. For June, the 2-year yield fell 21 bps and was down 16 bps over the quarter. The 10-year yield matched the 21 bps monthly decline but rose 6 bps over Q2.

Equities pushed higher into fresh record territory. The NASDAQ closed up 0.47% at 20,369, securing its third straight all-time high. The S&P 500 gained 0.52% to finish above 6,200 for the first time, while the Dow Jones rose 0.63% to 44,094 — reclaiming the 44,000 level last seen in February. June delivered over 4% gains for both the Dow and S&P, with the NASDAQ soaring 6.6%. For the quarter, the NASDAQ surged 17.75%, marking its strongest performance since Q2 2020.



Volatility eased further, with the VIX inching up 0.4% to 16.73 but still well below its April 8 spike of 52.33. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) weakened to 96.802, its lowest since early 2022, slipping from an earlier high of 97.318. Gold rose 1% to $3,308.50 per ounce, while crude oil eased 0.69% to $65.07 a barrel.

Markets reacted positively to news that Canada will withdraw its proposed tax on US tech firms, prompting a resumption of trade talks. President Trump had previously halted the negotiations, calling the tax ‘a direct and blatant attack.’ Investors now speculate that easing tensions could prevent further tariff hikes.

Still, uncertainty lingers. Many of Trump’s tariffs are only temporarily suspended and are scheduled to resume on July 9. Analysts at Deutsche Bank warn that the market rebound could give the administration confidence to revive 2018–2019-style tariff escalations.

Asian Markets Mixed as Global Rally Echoes

Asian markets were mostly in the green on Tuesday, following Wall Street’s back-to-back monthly gains. However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 retreated 1.4% to 39,910.83 despite a better-than-expected Tankan survey showing improved sentiment among large manufacturers.

In China, the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.4% to 3,458.56 as manufacturing and services PMIs both reached three-month highs (49.7 and 50.5 respectively). South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 0.8% to 3,095.67, lifted by rebounding exports, particularly in semiconductors, ships, health products, and electric vehicles — although analysts remain cautious on US auto exports due to tariff headwinds.

Australia’s ASX 200 ticked up 0.1% to 8,545.10, and the Philippine PSEi rose 0.4%. Hong Kong’s markets were closed for the holiday.

In corporate news, tech and M&A headlines fueled gains:

Oracle jumped 4% after CEO Safra Catz revealed multiple multi-billion-dollar cloud deals in the pipeline. GMS soared 11.7% after agreeing to a $5.5 billion cash buyout from a Home Depot subsidiary at $110/share. Rival bidder QXO, which previously offered $95.20/share, saw its stock rise 3.9%, while Home Depot slipped 0.6%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 11.1%, and Juniper Networks gained 8.4% after both companies reached a DOJ agreement that could clear the path for HPE’s $14 billion acquisition of Juniper.

Bank stocks also advanced after the Fed affirmed that major institutions could weather a potential downturn. JPMorgan rose 1%, and Citigroup added 0.9%.

In the bond space, Treasury yields fell ahead of Thursday’s critical nonfarm payrolls report, released a day early due to the July 4th holiday.

In early Tuesday trading, US crude dipped 22 cents to $64.89 a barrel, and Brent lost 21 cents to $66.53. The US dollar edged lower to 143.69 yen, and the euro strengthened slightly to $1.1778.

Gold Prices Surge on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Dollar Weakness

Gold rallied for a second day as investors positioned for possible Fed rate cuts and trade volatility. August futures climbed 1.09% to $3,343.60 on COMEX. Spot gold was last seen at $3,322.64 in Singapore, up 0.6%.

Traders have priced in increased odds of two rate cuts in 2025. If upcoming jobs data disappoints, Treasury yields could slide further — a scenario typically favourable for gold. Bullion is now up over 25% year-to-date, trading less than $200 below its record high from April.



Trade concerns also remain in focus. The July 9 deadline for resuming suspended US tariffs is drawing closer, adding a layer of uncertainty to the outlook.

The dollar’s recent weakness — down nearly 11% in H1 2025, its worst first-half showing since 1973 — has also supported gold’s advance.

Analysts continue to see an upside for gold. ‘Despite some recent softness, gold has the clearest upside potential if the dollar continues to weaken,’ wrote Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Elsewhere in precious metals:

Platinum dipped after a stellar 29% rally in June, driven by supply tightness and speculative demand.
Silver and palladium both edged higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd July 2025.

Canadian Dollar Wobbles as US Tariffs, Weak Economy Hit Loonie.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The threat of US tariffs and Trump’s halt to trade talks weighed on the CAD, with the Canadian economy projected to contract. Steady oil prices did little to help, and the Bank of Canada’s hawkish stance was not enough to stem the decline.

On Monday, White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett announced that the United States would soon resume trade talks with Canada. The move followed Canada’s decision to suspend a digital services tax targeting US technology companies. The suspension came just hours before the tax was due to take effect, indicating Canada’s efforts to resume stalled trade talks.

The Canadian Ministry of Finance confirmed that Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump would resume trade talks, with a target of reaching a deal by July 21. The positive developments provided a slight boost to the Canadian dollar (CAD).

Oil Price Pressure, US Debt Outlook

On the other hand, crude oil prices are facing pressure. Investors are weighing easing risks in the Middle East versus the prospect of a possible output increase by OPEC+ in August. This could potentially weigh on the Loonie, the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, and could limit further downside for the USDCAD pair.

Meanwhile, if Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is passed, it is expected to add about $3.8 trillion to the US federal deficit. This widening fiscal imbalance could further weigh on the US dollar (USD) and potentially boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

US Economic Data to Watch

On the economic front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is expected to edge up from 48.5 to 48.8, indicating a slight increase in factory activity. The ADP employment report is also projected to show an increase in private sector job creation, with 85,000 jobs added compared to 37,000 in the previous month.

However, the main focus will shift to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Expectations point to a slowdown in hiring, with 110,000 jobs added in June, down from 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up from 4.2% to 4.3%, reinforcing the narrative of a cooling labour market. What do you think, will the NFP report be the main determinant of the US Dollar’s ​​movement this week?

Canadian Dollar Under Pressure: US Tariff Threats, Weak Economy Hit Loonie

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) recently weakened above $1.37 per USD, pressured by a combination of new US tariff threats and trade policy uncertainty. The CAD had previously strengthened, but market sentiment has now turned around. The weakness was triggered by President Trump's announcement that he was ending all trade discussions with Canada over Canada's new digital services tax. Trump also warned of retaliatory tariffs, which immediately rattled exporters and dented confidence in near-term economic growth.



Domestically, the Canadian economy is expected to contract by a 0.1% monthly rate in April and May, highlighting Canada's vulnerability to potential US levies and dampening the outlook for trade-sensitive sectors. Although the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy interest rate at 2.75%, citing strong core inflation and signalling that no further rate cuts are imminent, this hawkish stance has not been enough to counter the pressure from resurgent tariff fears.

From a technical perspective, the intraday bias in USDCAD is neutral after a temporary rebound from 1.3590. Broadly speaking, the pair is still likely to move to the bearish side below 200 bar EMA. On the downside, with a break of the 1.3590 temporary low a retest of the 1.3538 low should be done first. A strong break there would resume a larger decline. For now, the risk remains on the downside as long as the 1.3797 resistance holds, in case of a recovery.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd July 2025.

Markets Soar as Vietnam Tariff Deal Eases Trade Tensions Ahead of Key Jobs Report.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global financial markets moved higher this week, with Wall Street hitting fresh record highs after President Donald Trump announced a last-minute trade agreement with Vietnam, easing concerns about aggressive tariff hikes. The deal, finalised just days ahead of a July 9 deadline, marks the third such trade accord under the administration’s push for ‘reciprocal tariffs’ and offers a temporary sigh of relief to investors navigating an increasingly volatile global outlook.

But while the headline deal offered a near-term boost to equities, underlying tensions around fiscal policy, global debt burdens, and upcoming US jobs data kept markets on edge.

Vietnam Trade Agreement Lifts Sentiment, but Tariffs Still High

Trump’s announcement confirmed that Vietnamese exports to the US will be subject to a 20% tariff, significantly lower than the threatened 46%, but still more than double historical rates. In return, Vietnam will drop tariffs on US goods.

The agreement arrives amid growing pressure on America’s trading partners to meet Washington’s demands. Dozens of economies, including Japan and the EU, are still racing to finalise similar deals before steep tariff increases take effect on July 9. Trump has already warned Japan that if negotiations fail, tariffs could spike to 30–35%, well above the temporary 10% rate introduced earlier this year.

The broader message: the risk of global tariff escalation remains very real.

Wall Street Breaks Records as Investors Bet on Policy Clarity

US equities cheered the trade progress. The S&P 500 climbed 0.47%, the Nasdaq surged 0.94%, and both closed at new all-time highs. The Dow Jones edged slightly lower by 0.02%. Investors were also buoyed by renewed optimism around Trump’s proposed tax and spending package, which aims to make tax cuts permanent and scale back regulations.

Yet, beneath the surface, uncertainty lingers. Treasury yields climbed as the Senate passed the OBBB bill, stoking fears about deficit spending. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.277%, while the 2-year rate edged up to 3.785%. Bond markets remain sensitive to the growing national debt and the prospect of further supply.

Tax Bill Faces Hurdles, Fuels Fiscal Concerns

Trump’s ambitious tax and spending bill, valued at $3.3 trillion, is facing resistance in the House. While it proposes making earlier tax cuts permanent and includes deregulation efforts, critics warn it would significantly expand the national debt and cut social safety net programs.

These concerns spilt into the bond market, with even Japanese government yields rising, despite a strong 30-year auction. Globally, investors are re-evaluating the balance between stimulus and sustainability.

Dollar Pulls Back, Commodities Gain

Currency markets reflected a mixed mood. The US dollar index (DXY) initially rallied to 97.152 but closed the day lower at 96.787, giving support to commodities. The British pound held firm at $1.3628 after nearly 1% losses the previous day. Political stability returned after UK PM Keir Starmer publicly backed Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, whose emotional parliamentary appearance followed controversy over welfare policy U-turns.

The euro slipped to $1.1788, still near its recent high, while the yen weakened slightly to 143.84 per dollar.

Gold prices firmed, and oil advanced sharply, with Brent crude nearing $69 and WTI above $67, following the Vietnam deal and ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where producers are expected to boost output quotas.

Meanwhile, copper surged to a 3-month high, nearing $10,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, as traders scrambled to ship supplies to the US in anticipation of tariffs. LME inventories have fallen to their lowest since 2023, and the rush has pushed the market into what analysts call ‘an emotional frenzy.’ The LME recently stepped in with new rules to manage speculative positions.



Asia Mixed as Tariff Risks and US Data Loom

Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday. Vietnam’s index rose 0.5% to a 2-year high, while the Vietnamese dong hit a record low of 26,229 per dollar. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1%, though China’s blue chips gained 0.5%.

Investors remain cautious. AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver, warned that the Vietnam deal could set a precedent for similarly aggressive trade measures against Europe and Japan.

South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung also struck a pessimistic tone, saying US negotiations were ‘difficult’ and that a deal may not be reached in time.

All Eyes on US Nonfarm Payrolls

With the July 4 holiday approaching, markets are now laser-focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. While the consensus points to a 130,000-job increase, recent weakness in the ADP private payrolls, which showed a 33,000-job drop, suggests downside risks. The services sector bore the brunt of the losses, especially in professional, educational, and health services, while leisure and manufacturing saw modest gains.

Bloomberg’s whisper number has already dropped to 98,000, indicating that expectations are being recalibrated. The data could prove decisive in shaping the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

Conclusion: A Calm Before the Storm?

While markets welcomed the easing of trade tensions with Vietnam, the bigger picture remains uncertain. The threat of broader tariff hikes, unresolved fiscal debates in Congress, and a pivotal US jobs report all loom large. Investors are watching closely, not just for short-term reactions but for clues about the direction of monetary policy, global trade, and commodity demand in the second half of 2025.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th July 2025.

European Markets Slip Ahead of Tariff Deadline, Wall Street Surges on Jobs Report and Fiscal Optimism.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

European Equities Slide on Trade Uncertainty

European stock markets edged lower on Friday as investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of a looming US trade policy deadline. With the July 9 expiration of President Trump's 90-day pause on increased tariffs approaching, concerns over unresolved trade agreements weighed heavily on sentiment.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined by 0.4% to 541.61 points in early trading, setting course for a weekly loss. Major regional benchmarks across the continent also moved into negative territory, driven by uncertainty over US-EU trade negotiations.

US Markets Rally on Robust Jobs Data and Legislative Progress

President Trump announced that Washington would begin sending formal tariff notifications to trading partners on Friday. These letters will detail the new duties—expected to range between 20% and 30%—on goods exported to the United States. Several key allies, including the European Union and Japan, have yet to secure final trade deals with the US, raising fears of a renewed trade war.

Sector-wise, mining stocks led the losses with a 1.1% drop, followed by a 0.8% slide in technology shares. Meanwhile, France’s Alstom gained 1.1% after landing a €2 billion ($2.4 billion) contract from New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority.

US equity markets surged as traders reacted positively to a stronger-than-expected June employment report and growing optimism over fiscal stimulus. The markets closed early on Wednesday ahead of the July 4 holiday, but not before notching record highs.

NASDAQ rose 1.02% to 20,601
S&P 500 climbed 0.83% to 6,279
Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.77% to 44,828, near its January peak of 44,882
Investor confidence was further boosted by the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) in the US House of Representatives. Approved by a narrow 218–214 vote, the sweeping pro-growth legislation is expected to be signed into law by President Trump on July 4, his self-imposed deadline.

The OBBB aims to generate $500 billion in savings over the next decade, defying the Congressional Budget Office’s projection of a $3.3 trillion deficit increase. Key provisions include:

Raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion
Expanding standard deductions and child tax credit
Reducing taxes on tips, overtime, Social Security, and auto loans
Increasing the SALT deduction cap to $40,000
Blocking a planned $4.5 billion tax hike set for year-end
As equities climbed, volatility dropped, with the VIX falling 1.56% to 16.38. However, US Treasury yields spiked amid strong data and diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 2-year yield rose 9.5 basis points to 3.88%, while the 10-year yield climbed 7 basis points to 4.35%.

DXY (US Dollar Index) surged to 97.422 before paring gains to close at 97.168, supported by US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s commitment to maintaining a strong-dollar policy.

Oil Prices Ease on Diplomatic Hopes and OPEC+ Output Plans

Crude oil prices retreated slightly on Friday, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of increased supply from OPEC+.

Brent crude dipped 0.51% to $68.45 per barrel
WTI crude dropped 0.37% to $66.75 per barrel
Oil markets responded to reports that the US and Iran may resume nuclear talks next week, as disclosed by both Iranian officials and US media outlet Axios. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, despite recent tensions and legislation suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Looking ahead, traders are closely watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where an additional production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August is expected. Four delegates confirmed the proposed hike as the oil alliance continues efforts to reclaim market share.

Additional Developments: Sanctions and Diplomacy

Adding complexity to the geopolitical picture, the US Treasury imposed fresh sanctions on a network accused of smuggling Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi shipments. Another target included a Hezbollah-linked financial entity.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with President Trump at the White House to discuss regional de-escalation strategies.

Meanwhile, Barclays revised its oil price forecast upward, citing stronger demand outlooks. The bank now sees Brent crude averaging $72 per barrel in 2025, and $70 per barrel in 2026.

Conclusion: Markets Brace for Trade Decision, but Optimism Lingers

Global markets are at a crossroads, with investors balancing optimism over US economic momentum and fiscal policy against the potential fallout of escalating trade tensions. As the July 9 tariff deadline nears and nuclear talks with Iran possibly resume, both equity and energy markets may experience renewed volatility.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.