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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 24, 2023
EUR/USD:
The euro is falling for significant reasons - the imminent increase in the debt limit (which will lead to a massive influx of dollars from outside to purchase US government bonds) and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates than what the markets currently expect (yesterday, Neel Kashkari and James Bullard mentioned raising rates above 6% as inflation persists).
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However, from a technical standpoint, the situation is ripe for a correction. On the daily chart, a small weak convergence between price and the Marlin oscillator is forming. The price has not reached the embedded line of the price channel (green line), creating a dual situation: either the inclined support will be tested today, or the price will go up to 1.0804 and only after that will it attack 1.0736, surpassing the price channel line. A drop below 1.0736 opens the target at 1.0625, the lower embedded line of the price channel.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is falling below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is declining in bearish territory. The resistance level at 1.0804 is reinforced by the MACD indicator line here. Yesterday's trading volumes were at average May levels, which does not provide a basis for an immediate breakthrough of support. Perhaps a small correction will allow investors to accumulate short positions.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 25, 2023
EUR/USD:
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair tested the resistance level of 1.0804 and closed the day on the lower embedded line of the price channel. The convergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator continues to influence the pair on the daily chart, and the pair could enter a correction from the support level of 1.0736 (the high of December 15, 2022).
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If the price consolidates below the aforementioned level, the convergence will cease to exist, and the price will continue to move towards the next price channel line around 1.0625. The intermediate support is at the level of 1.0692, the high of March 1.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is falling below both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has a small probability of forming a double convergence (exactly when the price tests the level of 1.0736), after which the price may undergo a corrective rise towards the MACD line, which is slightly below the resistance level of 1.0804. In addition, Marlin may easily break its own generating line and continue to fall along with the price.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ecc0c710ca.jpg
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 26, 2023
GBP/USD:
Yesterday, the pound opened and closed below the MACD indicator line. The downward movement may move towards the target range of 1.2125/53.
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The Marlin oscillator has slowed down and shows an intention to move up, which may indicate preparation for a correction to the MACD line (1.2400). If the correction does not occur and the support at 1.2273 is breached, we expect the price to reach the specified target range.
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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has a good potential for a decline. The price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines. If a correction does occur (while awaiting agreements on the U.S. debt limit), the upper limit of the correction is also the MACD indicator line at 1.2400.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2023
EUR/USD:
Last Friday, the euro traded within a range of 56 pips, closing the day at the opening level. The resistance of the target level at 1.0736 and the embedded line of the price channel were tested. Today, the price is not willing to repeat what it did on Friday, but the small convergence with the Marlin oscillator indicates that the price doesn't intend to enter a correction. Today is a holiday in the US and the UK, so we do not expect any significant or qualitative changes in the technical picture.
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The threat of a US default (or a budget shutdown) has also passed, as the White House and Republicans have reached an agreement on a 2-year debt limit. The agreement will be passed by the lower chamber tomorrow. If the price consolidates above 1.0736, it may develop a corrective rise towards 1.0804, while falling below 1.0692 would allow the price to target the bearish level of 1.0628.
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On the four-hour chart, the price failed to consolidate above 1.0736 on Friday, and this morning it has already settled below it, supported by the downward-turning Marlin oscillator. The price is trying to either stay above 1.0692 or remain in a sideways movement. The first strong resistance for the corrective movement is represented by the MACD line at 1.0756.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2023
EUR/USD: Yesterday, when the US and UK had a holiday, the euro cautiously tested the resistance of the nearest descending price channel line and ended the day lower. It appears that the bears are struggling to maintain pressure on the quotes. According to our main scenario, when the US government makes the final decision to raise the debt ceiling (tomorrow, as the lower house of Congress approves it today), the dollar will advance against all global currencies. However, this scenario has a visible pitfall - the desire of major players to eliminate premature dollar bulls. In this case, the euro may rise to the target level of 1.0804.
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On the other hand, if investors expect long-term strengthening of the dollar, initiating a move with a preliminary upward price spike of just one figure may not be a very effective endeavor. Historically, false movements of the euro against news of debt limit increases have occurred intermittently. It is difficult to predict how things will unfold today. Even from a technical perspective, the small convergence on the daily chart indicates both a potential minor correction and its possible breakdown due to strong news.
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On the four-hour chart, the price is getting closer to the MACD indicator line, from which a downward reversal may occur, or with the assistance of the Marlin oscillator, which is ready to enter the positive territory, the price could climb to the target level of 1.0804 (February 14 and May 24 highs). The MAcD line (1.0738) coincides with the price channel line on the daily chart, making it a strong level. There is a certain probability that the euro will decline without a preliminary corrective rally.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 31, 2023
EUR/USD
On Tuesday, the euro went through a correction, defined by the convergence with the Marlin oscillator. The price once again tested the target level of 1.0738 and the embedded line of the descending channel. The signal line of the oscillator has entered its own descending channel.
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According to the main scenario, the price can now consolidate below the support level of 1.0692 and continue moving towards 1.0620, which is the lower embedded line of the price channel. The alternative scenario is simple - after settling above 1.0738, a test of the target resistance at 1.0804 is possible. This would extend the correction.
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On the four-hour chart, the price has returned below the MACD indicator line after a false breakout above it. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the negative territory after briefly staying in the positive area. The trend is bearish
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 01, 2023
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Overview :
The GBP/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.2545, while minor resistance is seen at 1.2545. Support levels found at the levels of 1.2493 and 1.2454.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair continued to move upwards from the levels of 1.2493 and 1.2454. The pair rose from the levels of 1.2493 or 1.2454 to the top around 1.2523.
In consequence, the GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 1.2545.
Moreover, the RSI starts signaling an upward trend, and the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the area of 1.2493 - 1.2454. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.2493 and 1.2454.
Today, the level of 1.2493 is expected to act as major support. Hence, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.2493 towards the target level of 1.2545.
If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2545, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2545 in order to reach the second target at 1.0002 to test the double top in the H1 time frame.
However, the price spot of 1.2593 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend will probably be rebounded again from the double top as long as the level of 1.2454 is not breached.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 5, 2023
GBP/USD: On Friday, the pound fell by 75 pips amid mixed but not exactly weak US employment data. This morning, upon the news of President Biden signing a bill to lift the debt ceiling on Saturday, the pound lost another 20 pips, entering the range of the May 31 candle.
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The nearest target at 1.2403, the MACD daily line, is now open. Breaking below this line opens up the target of 1.2273, which is both the April 3 low and the February 14 high. The Marlin oscillator is moving deeper into the downtrend area, and it may reach the oversold zone when the price approaches the target range of 1.2125/53.
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On the four-hour chart, the price is moving between two target levels while the Marlin oscillator remains negative. It is likely that the price will attempt to break 1.2403. If successful, the pound will aim for the MACD line on the four-hour chart around 1.2370. Breaking below this support, the British pound will be aiming for 1.2273.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 6, 2023
Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair had reversed sharply lower after the technical resistance level seen at 1.2550 was too strong to be broken. The bears moved below all of the MA levels, but eventually the market bounced from the short-term trend line support seen at the level of 1.2367. The momentum reversed sharply from the extremely overbought conditions on the H4 time frame as well and is currently moving testing the level of fifty. There is still a room for a momentum and price to move lower, so the short-term outlook remains bearish.
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Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.25080
WR2 - 1.24565
WR1 - 1.24223
Weekly Pivot - 1.24050
WS1 - 1.23708
WS2 - 1.23535
WS3 - 1.23020
Trading Outlook:
A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the Weekly time frame chart 100 pips away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 might indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2444 will be the first indication of stronger bearish pressure.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Silver Commodity Asset, Wednesday, June 07 2023
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With the appearance of Deviation between price movement of Silver commodity asset with osMA indicator on its 4 hour chart, then it can be confirmed that if in the neareast future Silver will go down up to the level 23,204, and if this level successfully broken below, then Silver has the opportunity to continue its downside up to the level 22,875. But, if there is a quite significant upward correction, especially if it go up to the level 23,920, then the downward scenario which has been described below will become invalid and will cancel itself.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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USDCHF, H4 | Break above the resistance?
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The USD/CHF chart exhibits bullish momentum as the price remains above a significant ascending trend line, suggesting further potential for upward movement.
There is a possibility of continued bullishness towards the first resistance level at 0.9117, identified as an overlap resistance.
Support levels at 0.9023 and 0.8954, the latter coinciding with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, serve as significant levels of potential support.
An intermediate resistance level at 0.9091 is recognized as a multi-swing high resistance, highlighting its importance.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 9, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro surged upward by 83 pips, coming close to the target level of 1.0804. Now the situation is threefold: since the level of 1.0804 is based on the peak of February 14 (and the trough of January 31), the euro may still move a few pips to test this strong level. However, if the market is more keenly aware of the trough on April 3, it has already reached this level and the price may reverse downward right now. The corrective movement will end, and the pair will start to fall towards the 1.0600 target. If the 1.0804 level weakens over time, the corrective movement may continue until the price reaches the MACD indicator line (1.0830).
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...29011cd53d.jpg
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of India maintained the benchmark rate at 6.50% as expected, which left market participants confused, boosted by an increase in initial jobless claims (261,000 versus 233,000 the previous week) - fear of a possible pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle resurfaced. Additional turmoil came with the announcement that the eurozone officially entered a recession with the release of GDP data for the first quarter (-0.1%) and the revision of fourth-quarter GDP from 0.1% to -0.1%.
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Such news doesn't actually help the euro to strengthen. Moreover, on Tuesday, a day before the Fed's rate decision, US CPI data will be released, which may further agitate investors. Therefore, it is risky to buy the euro right now. On the four-hour chart, the price is rising above both indicator lines, but the Marlin oscillator seems to have finished rising. Therefore, it is still possible to test the target level of 1.0804, but further growth would appear illogical and purely speculative.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 12, 2023
EUR/USD
The euro is approaching the support level at 1.0738. The Marlin oscillator has backed off from attacking the zero line and has turned around as it approaches it. On the euro's path towards the target at 1.0600, there are at least three strong support levels: the nearest ones are at 1.0738, 1.0716, and 1.0692. There are no major macroeconomic news today, but tomorrow's important event will be the release of the May CPI in the US, and forecasts already suggest a slowdown in inflation (4.9-5.0% YoY compared to April's 4.9% YoY, although the range of forecasts varies depending on the analytical agency and individual groups of economists).
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The yield on US government bonds is not decreasing and remains at the peaks of June 7-9, technically leaning towards growth. This sentiment is also felt in gold, which has declined in value for the second consecutive day. The market probability of a rate hike on Wednesday has slightly increased from 25.3% to 29.9%. If tomorrow's CPI data does exhibit growth, investors will significantly raise this probability, and the markets will psychologically be prepared for an actual rate hike. Today, the volatility is likely to be low, and the day's close will be slightly lower.
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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is approaching the zero line and may meet it when the price touches 1.0738. Afterwards, we expect the price to move sideways.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 13, 2023
EUR/USD
The euro chose to wait within the range of 1.0738-1.0804 ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, rather than the previously anticipated range of 1.0692-1.0738. Technical indicators in the new range feel more at ease, with the Marlin oscillator approaching the neutral zero line.
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However, this calmness is likely to be disrupted. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the eurozone is projected to worsen from -9.4 to -11.9 in June. The evening will bring the main event of the day - the release of US CPI data. The consensus forecast suggests a decline in the overall index from 4.9% YoY to 4.1% YoY, and a decrease in the core index from 5.5% YoY to 5.3% YoY. The projected decline in inflation is optimistic, but at the moment, we consider it a secondary factor. If the Fed intends to raise interest rates, then weak data will be released, as inflation, like employment, are heavily manipulated fundamental indicators in the US.
We see a slight discrepancy between market expectations and the Fed's stance on interest rates, which is quite understandable, as rate hikes strongly impact businesses, and the market needs a confirmation of the rate hike, as it has been ignoring verbal signals from FOMC members given previously, as well as rate hikes by other central banks. Yesterday, investors increased the probability of a 0.25% rate hike to 30%. However, this is not enough, so the signal must be more specific, which is expected to be provided by today's inflation data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. If CPI data does not come out poorly, uncertainty about the interest rate will become particularly high.
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The situation is neutral on the four-hour chart. The price is developing above the balance and MACD indicator lines, but the Marlin oscillator is attempting to move into negative territory. We await further developments. Target levels are marked on the chart.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Crude Oil Commodity Asset, Wednesday June 14, 2023
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With the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart - Crude Oil commodity assets, in the near future #CL has the potential to appreciate corrected rally upwards to test the Bearish Orderblock level at 70.62 as the main target and if the momentum and volatility are sufficiently supportive, it is not impossible that the 200 EMA will be the next target to aim for provided that on the way to these targets it does not occur #CL returns to its initial bias again especially not to break below the 67.92 level because if this level is successfully broken then the scenario of an upward correction above that has been described will become invalid and cancel by itself.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 15, 2023
AUD/USD So, the US inflation data on Tuesday and yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting pushed the locally overbought Australian dollar above the target level of 0.6810. Since this level is strong, yesterday's growth corresponds to the overall market movement, and this morning we can see that the price has slightly fallen from the resistance level.
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The Marlin oscillator is turning downwards on the daily chart, but clearly, the price needs external support. We are waiting for the market's reaction to the results of the European Central Bank meeting today. We will learn about further growth if the price consolidates above 0.6810 (target 0.6873), and a break of the ascending trend will be indicated by the price breaking below the support level of 0.6730.
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On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is moving sideways in a narrow range, which is a sign of a downward breakout of this range. The price needs to overcome yesterday's low at 0.6759. After that, we can expect the price to attack 0.6730, where the MACD indicator line is approaching and strengthening it.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 16, 2023
GBP/USD:
On Thursday, the pound rose by 120 pips, reaching the target level of 1.2785. Consolidation above this level will make it possible for the pair to reach the next target at 1.2870. The subsequent targets are at 1.2980/90, and so on, every hundred pips. Yesterday, the pair surpassed the peak of May 10, which marked the highest point of growth since September 2022. As a result, the market has started a trend, and the decline observed from May 10 to May 25 was merely a correction within this annual uptrend.
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Considering the fundamental factors and the disbelief in the pound's long-term growth, the current year-long growth can be interpreted as a correction from a more significant decline between May 2021 and September 2022 (69 weeks). Currently, this is the 37th week of growth. It may continue for another three weeks and the pound can reach the level of 1.3160, the December 2021 low.
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We are extremely cautious about the prospect of such growth. Right now the Marlin oscillator is already showing signs of a reversal from the overbought territory.
On the 4-hour chart, there are no clear reversal signals, although the oscillator is in the overbought territory. The pound has a good chance of surpassing the 1.2785 level, and it will try to reach the 1.2870 target.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 19, 2023
EUR/USD:
On Friday, the euro fell by 5 pips, reaching the upper shadow of the April 4th peak. This level is not very strong, but after testing the stronger target range of 1.0910/30, a reversal could occur from a weaker level. If the price surpasses Friday's high (1.0971), the price will try to test the upper limit of the price channel around 1.1013. The daily Marlin oscillator is turning downward, indicating that the euro will likely try to return below the range of 1.0910/30. Consolidation below this range would allow for a bearish push towards the lower embedded line of the price channel around 1.0840.
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On the four-hour chart, there is a price consolidation above the target range of 1.0910/30, indicating a desire for further upward movement. The Marlin oscillator will also turn upward, easing the oversold condition. However, if the euro has no intention of rising, once the price falls below the mentioned range, it will consolidate below the zero line along with the oscillator, as its decline is quite rapid. The support level at 1.0840 approximately corresponds to the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The same indicator line on the daily chart is also approaching this area.
The support is becoming stronger, and its significance is increasing day by day. Therefore, breaking below this level would be a definitive signal for the development of medium-term downward movement (1.0580).
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...fc1fe8bab1.jpg
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 20, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro fell by 18 pips, marking the lower limit of the target range at 1.0910/30 with its lower shadow. Consolidation below the range will allow for an advance towards the lower line of the price channel around the 1.0840 mark. However, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling sluggishly, indicating that the euro still has a potential to rise. At the same time, the price is above the balance indicator line (which also halted its decline yesterday), indicating a maintained upward potential along with Marlin.
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The situation could be reversed by a strong downward movement surpassing yesterday's level. This is possible if the US construction data turns out to be good and today's speeches by James Bullard and John Williams demonstrate firmness, hinting at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's stance in his key speech in the House of Representatives tomorrow.
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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator sharply declines in a straight line. This often indicates a reversal of the price upwards. If the price finds the strength to break below the MACD line, the upward reversal is either postponed until the completion of a deep correction or canceled. The price is about 65 pips away from the MACD line, and an additional 15-20 pips would be needed for confirmation below it, which may prove to be an unattainable task for today. Powell's speech will take place in 9 four-hour candles (green vertical line). If the price does not deviate from its plan, it will only need to cover 50 pips since the MACD line is rising and approaching the price. The ultimate signal level is the peak on June 14 at 1.0865. The task is achievable, but the first impulse is necessary. The main plan will be canceled if the price breaks above the peak on June 16, allowing the price to continue rising towards 1.1007.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 21, 2023
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound settled below the linear resistance at 1.2785. The Marlin oscillator's signal line is declining, inspiring the British pound not to hesitate in reaching the target support level at 1.2678. However, the price needs a good reason - a slowdown in the inflation report from the National Statistics Office. The forecast for the CPI is expected to be 8.5% YoY, compared to April's 8.7% YoY. If the data shows that inflation is getting stronger, the price may try to reach the target level of 1.2870.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price found support from the balance line (red indicator). This hints at investors' desire to maintain an upward situation, as the Bank of England is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.25% tomorrow, with its planned four more rate hikes by the end of the year, totaling 5.75%. This would align with the Federal Reserve's interest rate by the end of the year (assuming two rate hikes by the Fed by year-end).
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From a technical perspective, the price should settle below the MACD line, below 1.2723, if it intends to make at least a false downward movement. For a more confident decline, the price should establish itself below 1.2678.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 22, 2023
GBP/USD:
Yesterday, the British pound traded within a range of 110 pips, closing the day with a 5-pip increase. Such volatility allowed the price to hold below the resistance level of 1.2785 and the Marlin oscillator to stay in a downward direction. Today, the price has a chance to retest the support level of 1.2678 and, if successful, it may fall towards 1.2600.
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Consolidation above 1.2785 would allow the price to continue rising according to an alternative scenario towards the level of 1.2870. The next target is 1.2940. On the four-hour chart, we can see that the price's failure to consolidate below the MACD indicator line has brought the price back above this line, but now with consolidation. The Marlin oscillator is in negative territory, so there is a possibility of another attempt to break downward.
Today, the Bank of England will make a decision on monetary policy, and a 0.25% rate hike is expected. However, consulting agencies suggest that this increase is already priced in, so investors will focus on the central bank's further plans.
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Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 23, 2023
GBP/USD
Despite the Bank of England's decision to raise the base rate by 0.50% instead of the expected 0.25%, the British pound closed the day down by 22 pips. The unexpected decision sparked UK recession concerns. With inflation remaining at 8.7% YoY and the rate increased to 5.00%, the economy is experiencing a situation of economic contraction and reduced consumer demand (and inflationary pressure!). The UK finds itself in this trap for the second time, with the first time being during the global crisis of 2008/2009, when the rate was also raised to 5.00% and inflation was at 5.0% YoY.
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Today, retail sales data for May in the UK will be released, with a forecast of -0.2%. The forecast for core retail sales is -0.3%. The decline in retail sales to -3.0% YoY currently corresponds to the contraction seen during the 2008 crisis, and the March figure of -3.9% is even worse than those years.
So, the price failed to extend yesterday's rally, and the breakthrough above the resistance at 1.2785 turned out to be false for the third consecutive session. Now, the price is declining towards the nearest support at 1.2678. Breaking this level will open up the next target at 1.2600.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is in negative territory. The short-term trend is bearish. To confirm a medium-term decline, the price needs to consolidate below the MACD line on the daily chart (1.2510).
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Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 26, 2023
USD/JPY:
Last Friday, the Japanese yen entered the 143.20/80 range and has been consolidating within it until this morning. On the daily chart, a divergence has not yet formed between the price and the Marlin oscillator. Keeping the price within the current range increases the chances of a subsequent decline. If the dollar continues to rise, then after surpassing 143.80, the 144.73 target will just be within reach.
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Falling below 143.20 would indicate that the dollar cannot continue to rise without a corrective pause, and the 142.30 target will open up. Moreover, if the price breaches the support level, it would mean a break below the embedded line of the price channel, potentially leading to sideways movement for a few days before further upward movement.
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On the four-hour chart, the pair is accelerating its growth. The Marlin oscillator is not yet in the overbought zone, so there is a good chance for the price to reach 144.73 in the near future before the growth loses momentum. As the probability of further growth and correction is roughly equal, the key levels to watch are 143.20 and 143.80.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 27, 2023
Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair has hit the technical support located at the level of 1.2698 and the bulls keeps trying to bounce higher to resume the up trend. The local low was made a few pips lower at 1.2684 and will act as the intraday technical support. The 50 MA will provide the dynamic resistance for bulls around the level of 1.2766 when the up trend is resumed. The weak and negative momentum on the H4 time frame chart support short-term bearish outlook for GBP, but the bulls keep trying to move up. The pull-back might evolve into a full-blown correction if the level of 1.2684 is broken.
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Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.27656
WR2 - 1.27471
WR1 - 1.27367
Weekly Pivot - 1.27286
WS1 - 1.27182
WS2 - 1.27101
WS3 - 1.26916
Trading Outlook:
The 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2778 has been hit, but it does not indicate the corrective cycle to the upside had been terminated. Any sustained breakout above this level and a weekly candle close above it is needed to change the long-term outlook to bullish. The key long term level of technical support is seen at 1.2444. The next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3160.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 28, 2023
EUR/USD:
On Tuesday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, at a conference in Portugal, stated with full confidence that the peak rates have been reached, which briefly stimulated the euro's growth. Chinese banks were selling the dollar yesterday, indirectly supporting the euro. The pair rose by 54 points and reached the intermediate level of 1.0971 on the way to 1.1000.
The Marlin oscillator is currently turning downwards, and if the euro does not receive any more external support, the correction may end. Today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also speaking at the same conference in Portugal, and he could say something in favor of the dollar. If not, the price will continue to rise towards the corrective target at 1.1000. If the price surpasses this level, it will continue to rise towards targets at 1.1028 and 1.1085.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is entangled in indicator lines and has not yet fully figured out its relationship with the 1.0971 level. The Marlin oscillator only moved into positive territory yesterday, feeling fresh and ready to assist in further price growth. Falling below the target range of 1.0910/30 will restore the decline in the medium term, which started on June 22. The target is 1.0804.
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Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 29, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro returned to Tuesday's lows, which can be considered as the end of the confrontation amid aggressive rhetoric from central bank officials at the forum in Sintra. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the possibility of rate hikes at consecutive meetings, and investors, comparing economic data that is clearly better in the United States than in Europe, started buying dollars.
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The price has already broken below the lower band of the target range of 1.0910/30 and opened the target of 1.0789-1.0804, towards which the MACD indicator line on the daily chart will soon approach. The lower band of the target range is defined by the low of April 3. The Marlin oscillator is declining.
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On the four-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance indicator line, and the Marlin oscillator has settled below the zero line. We have a downtrend, and we are waiting for the price to reach the target range.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 30, 2023
EUR/USD: Yesterday, thanks to the report on the final estimate of US GDP for the first quarter, which turned out to be better than expected, the US dollar strengthened by 0.35%. The euro lost 47 pips. On the daily chart, the price settled below the range of 1.0910/30. Now the price can reach the target range of 1.0789-1.0804.
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The MACD line is approaching this range, increasing its importance. Consolidating below this range will be a key indicator of the euro's medium-term uptrend. Around the same time, the Marlin oscillator will move into negative territory.
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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line stayed within the downtrend area yesterday. The price briefly moved above the range and the balance line. We expect further developments within the support range of 1.0789-1.0804.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on July 3, 2023
GBP/USD
On Friday, the GBP/USD pair rose above the target level of 1.2678. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upwards from the zero line. Now, if the pair closes the day above this level, it will continue to rise towards the next resistance level at 1.2785. Closing the day below 1.2678 will extend the period of uncertainty since the US will be celebrating a holiday tomorrow.
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According to the main scenario, the price is trading towards the target support level at 1.2520, where the MACD line is currently located. This would automatically lead to a break below the embedded green price channel line (1.2572), which is a sign of medium-term decline. The pair will likely go through light trading today and tomorrow, due to the US holiday, and major events will unfold on Wednesday.
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On the four-hour chart, the price is staying above 1.2678, and the first resistance it encounters is the balance indicator line. Marlin is rising in the positive territory. There is a possibility of further growth towards the MACD line (1.2760) and then 1.2785. Currently, time is working in favor of the bears. If the price fails to firmly establish above 1.2678 or reverses downwards, it may lead to a two-day period of uncertainty (range).
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 4, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro showed a range of 60 points, closing the day at the opening level. The upper shadow tested the 1.0930 level, and this morning the price is headed towards this mark again, not giving up hope of reaching the upper band of the green descending price channel around 1.0990. This is possible if the euro follows the stock market and employment data turn out worse than expected. For now, the price needs to consolidate above 1.0930. Surpassing yesterday's low at 1.0871 will be a signal for a decline.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price could not consolidate below the balance indicator line and returned to the 1.0910/30 range. Here, it can linger for a while and try to overcome the MACD line around 1.0952. The Marlin oscillator in the positive area is ready to join the growth at any moment.
Given that we accept the bearish scenario for the euro as the main plan, the price may not overcome the MACD line and return below the range. Like yesterday, uncertainty persists in the short-term perspective.
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Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 5, 2023
EUR/USD
The euro lost more than 30 points yesterday, finding resistance at 1.0910/30 quite strong. The Marlin oscillator is not resisting this decline, it is approaching the border of the downtrend territory. Crossing this border will accelerate the pair's decline. There are two nearby targets: the MACD line (1.0820) and the target range under it at 1.0789-1.0804.
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An alternative scenario will unfold with the price breaking above the resistance range of 1.0910/30, making the next target as 1.0984. On the four-hour chart, the price is falling below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is also in decline territory. We are watching the development of the current downtrend.
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Today, the eurozone services PMI for May will be published - a decline from 55.1 to 52.4 is forecasted. In the US, the volume of industrial orders for May will be released, with growth of 0.8% expected.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 6, 2023
USD/JPY
For the sixth session, the yen has done nothing but move to the right. Such consolidation, however, increases the chances of an upward breakout, first to the target of 145.68, then to 147.40. The price's divergence with the Marlin oscillator is gradually losing strength due to inactivity.
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Now, even if the price falls to one of the support levels (143.80, 143.20), there will be a quick reversal. If the Marlin oscillator enters negative territory, which will not happen today, the price may fuel the corrective decline to the embedded line of the price channel around the 142.70 mark.
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On the four-hour chart, the price fell under the balance and MACD indicator lines during the sideways movement. The price delay under these lines increases the chances of a decline. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating below the zero line – also a sign of a possible decline in the near future. Under the influence of external circumstances, the price may consolidate above 144.73 and this would point to upward movement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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The Fed's minutes turned out to be somewhat unexpected
Wednesday was a relatively quiet and calm day for the US currency. In the evening, the FOMC minutes were published, and this document, which usually only contains general information about the meeting, this time might have surprised the markets a bit. A month before the Federal Reserve's June meeting, the market was firmly convinced that the central bank would take a break for 1-2 meetings. After Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke in the U.S. Congress and openly stated the possibility of two rate hikes in 2023, the chances of a rate hike in June increased. But it didn't increase for long or by much. A week later it dropped back down to 20% and remained there until the very meeting.
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Therefore, there was no doubt that the rate decision was made long before the actual meeting, but, as it turned out last night, some FOMC members supported a new increase but simply found themselves in the minority. In my opinion, this is quite unexpected, as Powell in recent weeks instilled confidence in the existence of a unanimous opinion in the monetary committee. However, in any case, the document had a more hawkish stance, which could support the US currency. Since the demand for the greenback did not increase last night, and it sharply fell on Thursday morning, I conclude that the market did not find anything interesting for itself in the minutes, as often happens.
Also take note of the fact that the majority of FOMC members support two more rate hikes this year, which fully coincides with the market's expectations. However, the minutes also state that uncertainty regarding the future of the US economy and inflation is too high, so additional data (future reports) would not be superfluous in determining the rate at subsequent meetings. If inflation continues to decline at a high pace, the rate may only rise once.
The market is left with only two reports this week – Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment. A report on wages will be released on Friday, but I think that the market will focus on the first two reports. Thursday's release showed that the labor market is still in excellent condition, but the data from the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls reports often differ from each other, even though they reflect roughly the same thing. Personally, I believe Friday's release will not disappoint, but various scenarios are possible.
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Based on the analysis conducted, I conclude that the downtrend is currently being built. The instrument has enough room to fall. I believe that targets around 1.0500-1.0600 are quite realistic. I advise selling the instrument on "down" signals from the MACD indicator. The wave b is apparently over. According to the alternative layout, the ascending wave will be longer and more complicated, this will be the main scenario in case of a successful attempt to break through the current peak of the wave b.
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument has changed and now it suggests the formation of an upward set of waves. Earlier, I advised buying the instrument in case of a failed attempt to break through the 1.2615 mark, which is equivalent to 127.2% Fibonacci. Wave 3 or c may take a more extended form, or wave e in a wedge will be constructed, and the instrument will return to the 1.2842 mark. Selling looks more promising and I advised it two weeks ago with a Stop Loss above 1.2842, but the signal from 1.2615 temporarily canceled that scenario. We need new signals for short positions.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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The dollar is covering its tracks
First impressions can be deceiving. US non-agricultural employment rose by 209,000 in June fell short of the Bloomberg expert consensus forecast and was the weakest since December 2020. Moreover, the data for April and May were revised down by 110,000. Initially, the market perceived the report as weak, which led to a drop in Treasury bond yields and a rise in EUR/USD above 1.092. However, the devil is always in the details.
In the lead-up to the report, investors were counting on strong numbers as private sector employment from ADP rose by nearly half a million people. However, the actual non-farm payrolls turned out to be worse than that report by the largest amount since the beginning of 2022. This fact can be seen as a sign of a cooling labor market. Nevertheless, unemployment in June dropped from 3.7% to 3.6%. As long as it does not increase, we can forget about a recession in the US economy. In addition, the average wage increased faster than expected, so it's still too early for the Federal Reserve to relax.
U.S. private sector employment
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The employment report for the US private sector turned out to be mixed. It reduced the probability of a rate hike to 5.75% in 2023 from 41% to 36%, which worsened the position of the US dollar against the main world currencies. However, Deutsche Bank noted that only a figure of +100,000 or less for non-farm payrolls could change the worldview of FOMC officials and make them abandon their plans for two acts of monetary restriction this year.
June employment data gave food for thought to both the "hawks" and "centrists" of the Fed, as well as the "bulls" and "bears" for EUR/USD. Now, investors' attention is shifting to US inflation data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. Bloomberg experts expect consumer prices to slow in June from 4% to 3.1%, and core inflation from 5.3% to 5% year-on-year. CPI is moving so quickly towards the 2% target that it's as if Fed officials have not changed their minds. Could it be that this time the financial market will be right? And those who went against the Fed will make money? We'll see.
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Not everyone agrees with this. ING notes that the minutes of the FOMC's June meeting set a very high bar for incoming data for the Bank to abandon its plans. The US labor market report is unlikely to have surpassed this bar. Core inflation continues to remain high, and the economy is firmly on its feet. All this allows ING to predict the EUR/USD pair's fall towards 1.08 within the next week.
Technically, on the daily chart, there is a battle for the fair value at 1.092. Closing above this level will allow you to buy on a breakout of resistance at 1.0935. This is where the upper band of the consolidation range within the "Spike and Ledge" pattern is located. On the contrary, if the 1.092 mark persists for the bears, we will sell the euro from $1.089.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 11, 2023
Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has broken above the intraday technical resistance seen at the level of 1.0974 and made a new swing high at the level of 1.1023 (at the time of writing the analysis). The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0974. Please notice, the momentum has hit the extremely overbought conditions again, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. In a case of a breakout lower, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0901 and 1.0876. Only a sustained breakout below the moving average dynamic support around 1.0900 would change the outlook to more negative.
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Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.09927
WR2 - 1.09761
WR1 - 1.09665
Weekly Pivot - 1.09595
WS1 - 1.09499
WS2 - 1.09429
WS3 - 1.09263
Trading Outlook:
Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 12, 2023
EUR/USD
The euro has reached the target resistance of 1.1028. The pair has crossed the peak of June 22, and along with it, the primary conditions for forming divergence with the Marlin oscillator have been prepared. If a divergence is formed, it will mean the end of the entire corrective growth since May 31. If the price consolidates above 1.1028, it could extend this correction to 1.1085, that is, to its limit as a correction. But if the pair surpasses this level, it will mean the continuation of the entire uptrend from September 25, 2022. However, this growth also has a small chance of a build-up, its first resistance level is 1.1155.
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oday, the June CPI data will be published in the United States. The total CPI is forecasted to fall from 4.0% y/y to 3.1% y/y, and the core CPI is expected to decrease from 5.3% y/y to 5.0% y/y. As the previous rise from July 6 was purely speculative, the market reaction to the data could even be against the data. This means that if the current market logic implies a softening of the Federal Reserve's policy in connection with forecasts for today's data, then the actual reaction could be the opposite (falling euro), as a cumulative view on the deterioration of the European economy and the resilience of the American one. It is also notable that the market ignored yesterday's drop in the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July from -10.0 to -12.2.
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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is developing sideways movement in its own range. This is a sign of increasing potential for a downward movement. All we have to do is wait for the US inflation report and look at the market reaction.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 13, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday's US inflation data came out better than forecasts; the core CPI for June fell from 5.3% YoY to 4.8% YoY, the overall CPI fell by 1.0% - from 4.0% YoY to 3.0% YoY. The euro surpassed the April peak and closely approached the target level of 1.1155. Now the price has revived the uptrend from September 25, 2022. After overcoming 1.1155, the next target will be 1.1222 (the support level from December 7-15, 2022).
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The pair may not surpass the 1.1155 mark today, but after a slight pullback to the nearest support level of 1.1085. The reason may be the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial production in the eurozone - the forecast for May is -1.1% YoY against 0.2% YoY in April.
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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the consolidation and moved upwards, and immediately into the overbought territory. This is also a sign of an impending pullback before the price rises further.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for July 14, 2023
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EUR/USD continues to rally higher towards the next upside target at 1.1444. In the longer term, we are looking for EUR/USD to move closer to the 1.2007 target as a minimum.
Short-term support is seen near 1.1130 with solid support placed at 1.1033, which previously acted as resistance, but now, has shifted character to support after the clear break on Wednesday. In the short term, we could see the pace of the rally settle down, but the bias will remain towards the upside.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 17, 2023
EUR/USD
Last Friday, as well as in today's Asian session, the euro started to show signs of reversal from the resistance level at 1.1237. We can confirm this when the price falls below Friday's low at 1.1205. This would allow it to continue falling towards the first support level at 1.1155.
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Further, we might witness a breakthrough below this mark and test the 1.1076/96 range. Consolidating below this target range would serve as a strong signal for a reversal. However, this would need to be confirmed as well. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning downwards, indicating a high probability of the price decline, at least as a correction towards 1.1155.
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On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is swiftly approaching the boundary of the bearish territory, indicating the price's intention to test 1.1155. The MACD line is heading towards the target range at 1.1076/96, strengthening it and increasing its strategic significance.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 18, 2023
EUR/USD:
The euro closed Monday's session at the opening level below the resistance at 1.1237. This morning, the price rose higher than yesterday's high and formally opened the target at 1.1320.
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Speculative growth of the euro continues, but it will eventually come to an end, maybe today, as the US will release its retail sales report for June, with an optimistic forecast of 0.5% compared to 0.3% in May. The Marlin oscillator does not react to the price increase; it continues to fall. The upward movement may turn out to be deceptive.
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On the four-hour chart, Marlin also does not respond to the recent price growth. Yesterday, the pair failed to break through the key level of 1.1205; it retains its role today as well. Overcoming this level will open the next target at 1.1155. Breaking below 1.1155 opens up the key range of 1.1076/96.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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