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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday's US economic data did not push the dollar higher. Retail sales for June showed a 0.2% increase, while industrial production declined by 0.5%. The dollar was also hindered by surveys conducted among 109 economists, the majority of whom considered the July rate hike by the Federal Reserve as the last in the tightening cycle.
Today, the EU will release its inflation data, with a forecast of 5.5% YoY compared to 6.1% YoY in May. Good data may have an impact on European monetary policymakers. However, on the daily chart, the euro is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.1237, which, together with yesterday's attempt at growth, keeps the bulls' interest towards aiming for the 1.1320 level. The Marlin oscillator is steadily falling, which supports the notion of a downward movement.
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On the four-hour chart, the price is currently between the signal level of 1.1205 and the resistance level of 1.1237. Breaking through the signal level will allow the price to fall towards the target support level of 1.1155. The Marlin oscillator has moved into a downtrend territory, indicating the potential for short-term downward movement. The delay in the euro's fall has led to the MACD indicator line surpassing the target range of 1.1076/96 and heading towards 1.1155. This means that the focus is shifting from the support range to a higher level, from which it may reverse to the upside. Therefore, 1.1155 serves as a reference for the corrective decline.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of EUR/USD Main Currency Pairs, Thursday, July 20 2023
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If we look on its 4 hour chart, EUR/USD main currency pairs seems like Buyers still dominates where this things confirmed by EMA 12 & 26 which is still intersecting Golden Cross as well as indicator CCI which manages to break above its three levels and hold on to the level 0 which indicates that there is significant support based on these facts, in the near future Fiber has the potential to rally up to test the 1.1253 level. If this level is successfully broken up, then the 1.1276 level will be the main target to aim for and the 1.1329-1.1376 area level will be the next target to go for. However, all of these strengthening scenarios will cancel itself out if on the way the EUR/USD rally goes up towards the target levels, it is suddenly corrected downwards and breaks below the 1.1134 level because if this level is successfully broken down then all strengthening rally scenarios previously described will become invalid and cancel automatically.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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NZDUSD, H4 | Bounce off support level?
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The NZD/USD pair is in a bearish trend, breaking below an ascending support line and suggesting a potential continuation of the downward movement. The first support at 0.6189, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, could act as a price floor. If the price drops further, the second support at 0.6114, aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, may provide strong resistance.
On the other hand, if the bearish momentum reverses, the price could face resistance at 0.6246, followed by a higher obstacle at 0.6305. These resistance levels have the potential to hinder the price's upward progress.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 24, 2023
GBP/USD:
On Friday, the British pound traded in a 43-pip range, slightly decreasing by the end of the day. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward territory, strengthening the pound's potential to test the support level at 1.2666-1.2720.
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The MACD line has become significant within the mentioned range. The price will likely fall after breaking below Friday's low at 1.2815. On the four-hour chart, we can see that the price tested the nearest correction level at 1.2903 with the upper shadow on Friday. The price and oscillator convergence is gradually waning.
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If today's UK business activity gauge shows that the Manufacturing PMI is slowing down as expected, while the US Manufacturing PMI is getting stronger (forecast of 46.4 versus 46.3 in May), then the pound will likely fall towards the upper band of the target range at 1.2720.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 25, 2023
AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar, unlike other currencies, clearly indicates a potential decline in the US Dollar after the Federal Reserve's rate hike tomorrow. The signs include a price reversal at the approaching signal line of 0.6708 and a false break of the Marlin oscillator's signal line below the zero line.
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Currently, the Marlin oscillator is in positive territory. If the price breaks above the target range of 0.6783/98, there is potential for further growth towards the target level of 0.6940. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the signal level of 0.6708, it may aim to test the MACD line around 0.6643 with a perspective of declining to 0.6560.
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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into the upward territory, and the price shows an intention to enter the target range of 0.6783/98, which would also mean breaking above the MACD line. The FX market awaits the outcome of tomorrow's Fed meeting.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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NZDUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?
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The NZD/USD chart is currently trending bearish, with the price within a bearish Ichimoku cloud and below a major descending trend line, indicating potential further decline. The 1st support at 0.6166, a multi-swing low, and the 2nd at 0.6128, an overlap support and the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, could halt the bearish run. Resistance levels are at 0.6221 and 0.6272, acting as overlap and pullback resistances respectively, potentially sparking selling pressure.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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XAUUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?
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XAU/USD exhibits a bullish momentum, potentially continuing towards the first resistance at 1985.73. The first support at 1967.08 is significant as an overlap support. The second support at 1953.30 is an overlap support, positioned at both the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a Fibonacci confluence. Regarding resistance levels, the second resistance at 2006.41 is notable as a pullback resistance. An intermediate resistance at 1979.00 is recognized as a pullback resistance, positioned at both the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the 61.80% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a Fibonacci confluence.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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XAUUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?
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The XAU/USD pair is showing a bearish trend, potentially leading to a price drop from the 1st resistance level towards the 1st support at 1938.31, significant due to its pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement alignment. If the price breaches this level, the 2nd support at 1928.59, an overlap support and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, is notable. Resistance levels are at 1954.07 (pullback) and 1968.24 (pullback), both likely hindrances for upward price movement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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EURUSD, H4 | Overall Neutral Momentum?
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The EUR/USD chart currently shows a neutral overall momentum, lacking a clear directional trend. The price of the currency pair has the potential to fluctuate between the 1st resistance and the 1st support level. The 1st support level at 1.0959 is considered a pullback support, offering a buying opportunity during market retracements, and it gains significance from its alignment with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.
Additionally, the 2nd support level at 1.0917, identified as an overlap support, may also attract buyers' interest and provide further support during price declines. Conversely, the 1st resistance at 1.1040 acts as an overlap resistance, coinciding with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, potentially limiting upward movement and attracting selling pressure. An intermediate resistance level at 1.1003 adds to the potential resistance points in the price movement. Moreover, the observed chart pattern is a symmetrical triangle, indicating consolidation before a possible breakout or breakdown. A break above the upper trendline suggests a bullish breakout, while a break below the lower trendline indicates a bearish breakdown.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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USDCHF, Day | React off Resistance level?
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The USD/CHF chart is displaying a strong downward trend, indicating bearish momentum.
With this bearish view, there's a possibility of a negative price reaction near the first resistance level, potentially leading to a decline towards the first support level.
The significance of the initial support at 0.8558 is due to its role as a support level marked by multiple swing lows. Also, a secondary support at 0.8312 adds to the overall support structure.
Conversely, the primary resistance level at 0.8769 is notable for aligning with a resistance point observed in earlier data.
Furthermore, a secondary resistance at 0.8902 is recognized as a potential pullback point, potentially introducing resistance against upward movement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast of USD/JPY on August 15, 2023
USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair is approaching the target level of 145.90. The Marlin oscillator is gradually turning downwards on the daily chart, indicating a correction towards the nearest support level at 144.73. If the pair surpasses this mark, the next corrective target would be the MACD line at 143.97.
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If the price consolidates above 145.90, the pair might continue to rise to the nearest resistance of the global hyperchannel around the 147.90 mark. Beyond this level lies the 148.50 target. The bulls will probably aim for the 147.90-148.50 range next.
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The shorter timeframe shows us that the MACD line is approaching the support line of 144.73. This fact certainly supports the uptrend, reducing the risk of a deep correction. However, the Marlin oscillator, being a leading indicator, is not growing but gradually decreasing. We expect traders to struggle at the 144.73 level.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 16, 2023
EUR/USD Yesterday's performance was structurally similar to August 10th – a high upper shadow stopped by resistance. This time, the MACD line provided resistance.
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At the end of the day, the euro settled below this line and below the target level of 1.0924. Now the target is the support level of 1.0865. Consolidating below this level opens the target range of 1.0761/88. It looks like the stock market is already going into a medium- or long-term decline – we never got the expected corrective spike in quotes.
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On the four-hour chart, the price also settled below the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is descending in the downtrend territory.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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EUR/USD analysis for August 21, 2023 - Key resistance level on the test
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Technical analysis:
EUR/USD has been trading upside this morning but I found that market is testing important pivot resistance at 1.0893.
In case of the rejection of the resistance at 1.0893, I see potential downside rotation towards $1.0850.
In case fo the breakout and hold above resistance at 1.0893, I see further rally towards 1.0920 and 1.0950
Stochastic oscillator is showing bullish divergence and bull reading.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Tuesday August 22, 2023
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If we look at the 4-hour chart for the Nasdaq 100 index, even though the price is currently below the Supertrend AI indicator, but it has the potential to be corrected upwards, which can be seen from the Trendilo indicator which is trying to break above its Lower band so that 15301.86, and then #NDX still has a chance to continue its decline in the near future to the level of 14701.94 as the main target and 14401.97 as the next target to be achieved.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Trading plan for GBP/USD on August 23. Simple tips for beginners
Analyzing Tuesday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart
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The GBP/USD pair showed quite an interesting downward movement on Tuesday. It retreated after testing the upper band of the sideways channel, in which it has been trading in for over three weeks. The chart above clearly shows what we mean. Thus, despite quite an interesting movement during the day (which was not provoked by a macroeconomic or fundamental background), the pair stayed within the sideways channel, meaning that the flat persists. We already mentioned this – no matter what movements we see, the pair is still moving sideways.
On Tuesday, there was nothing interesting about the economic calendar. One report in the US and a speech by a Federal Reserve official. Even if these events had a slim chance of affecting the market, they certainly aren't the reason for the dollar's growth. Since the upper band of the channel has been tested again, so now we can expect the pair to fall to the 1.2620 level.
GBP/USD on 5M chart
Two trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. During the European session, the pair hovered around the 1.2787-1.2791 area for several hours, afterwards it finally rebounded from it, forming a sell signal. Subsequently, the price successfully breached the 1.2748 level at its first attempt and there were no more signals for the rest of the day. Therefore, the short position should have been closed manually towards the evening, with a profit of no less than 40 pips, which is quite good given that volatility was 80 points.
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Trading tips on Wednesday:
On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to move in a sideways channel. We still expect the pound to fall, as we still believe it is overbought and unreasonably expensive. However, the market has taken a break for now, so either trade within the sideways channel or wait for the flat to end. In the coming days, we can expect the pound to fall by about 100 pips. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2499, 1.2538, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2748, 1.2787-1.2791, 1.2848-1.2860, and 1.2913. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Wednesday, PMIs in the services and manufacturing sectors will be published in both the UK and the US. These aren't crucial reports, and they are unlikely to move the pair out of the flat.
Basic trading rules:
1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.
3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.
5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.
How to read charts:
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.
Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 24, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro broke through the key support level at 1.0834. By the end of the day, the euro had risen by 17 points. The nature of this movement suggests that this breakthrough was false. This morning, the price continues to rise above the 1.0865 level. The Marlin oscillator continues its upward turn. Market participants are concerned that tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will confirm the idea of a strong American economy and hint at another rate hike(possibly by 0.50%).
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The concern arises from the fact that seemingly obvious things might be interpreted differently by the Fed itself, implying that there might be no further tightening. Generally, the Jackson Hole conference doesn't discuss specific issues, such as a rate hike in a month or two, so there will be opportunities for speculation in interpreting Powell's words. Considering the increased volatility of the EUR/USD pair, it might reach the target range of 1.0924/42 regardless of the tone set by the Fed chair. The question is about the euro's medium-term perspective.
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On the four-hour chart, following the false downward movement, the price returned above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator entered the positive territory. An uptrend in the short-term, and the target range of 1.0924/42 is in sight. Consolidating above this range will open up the next target at 1.1012.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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EURUSD, H4 | Bounce off support level?
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The EUR/USD pair is showing bearish tendencies, emphasized by its movement in a descending channel and its position beneath a bearish Ichimoku cloud, hinting at a possible price reversal. Given these signals, the pair may continue its descent towards the 1st support at 1.0741. This support gains significance from being an overlap support and its alignment with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension and 100% level. The 2nd support lies at 1.0666, known as a swing low support. If there's an upward shift, the 1st resistance is at 1.0837, marked as an overlap resistance. The 2nd resistance is at 1.0923, another overlap point. In between, an intermediate resistance exists at 1.0802, serving as a pullback resistance.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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USDCHF, Day | React off resistance level?
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The USD/CHF chart displays a bearish trend within a descending channel, indicating a continued price decline. There's a potential for the price to react bearishly at the 1st resistance of 0.8850, influenced by its overlap resistance classification and Fibonacci confluence with the 50% and 61.80% retracement levels, before moving towards the overlap-supported level at 0.8702. The 2nd resistance at 0.8920, also an overlap resistance, strengthens its significance by aligning with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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JAPAN JOBLESS RATE RISES TO 2.7% IN JULY
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The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent in July, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Tuesday.
That exceeded expectations for 2.5 percent, which would have been unchanged from the June reading.
The jobs-to-applicant ratio ticked down to 1.29, shy of forecasts for 1.30, which again would have been unchanged.
The participation rate was 63.1 percent, matching forecasts and steady from the June level.
News are provided by
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This week's pack of US data will decide the dollar's fate
This week, the news backdrop will be much stronger than in the previous one. The lion's share of essential reports will come from America, so I will focus on them in this article. Before delving into the data that could significantly affect the dollar's fate, I should note – the labor market and unemployment reports are currently the most crucial because they, along with inflation, influence when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates and start lowering them. Reports on GDP or business activity are nowhere near as influential as the aforementioned ones.
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The first significant report will be released on Tuesday – the JOLTS number of job openings. It's expected that this figure will slightly fall compared to the previous month, but it's rare for the actual value to deviate significantly from market expectations. Hence, while the report is important, the dollar's reaction will depend on the actual figure, which could be neutral.
The second key report is the ADP report on changes in employment in the non-farm sector. This is analogous to the Nonfarm Payrolls but with lesser significance to the market. Reactions to this report are quite frequent, and its values often do not meet market expectations. However, the market values payrolls more, and the final assessment of the labor market's state will be based on the payrolls. Nonetheless, a reaction to the ADP report might also follow.
The third important report is the unemployment rate on Friday. It is expected that for August, the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.5%. However, its increase or decrease can greatly influence market sentiment. I believe that a slight increase will not lead to a decline in the dollar, as this indicator has been near its historical lows for a long time.
The fourth important report is Nonfarm Payrolls, which will be released at the same time as the unemployment report. Payrolls are more significant, and their value has been declining for some time. However, this should not cause confusion, as the FOMC continually tightens its monetary policy, leading to an economic slowdown. Accordingly, the relationship between expectation and reality will be significant here. The forecast is 170,000. Any value above this might cause an increase in demand for the dollar. And the payroll report will most likely overshadow the unemployment report.
Based on the conducted analysis, I came to the conclusion that the upward wave pattern is complete. I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range are quite realistic, and with these targets in mind, I advise selling the instrument. The a-b-c structure appears complete and convincing. Therefore, I advise selling the instrument with targets set around the 1.0788 and 1.0637 marks. I believe that the construction of a downtrend segment will continue, but a corrective wave might start soon.
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The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend segment. There is a risk of ending the current downward wave if it is wave "d" and not "1". In that case, wave 5 could start from current levels. However, in my opinion, we are currently witnessing the construction of the first wave as part of a new downward segment of the trend. A successful attempt to break through the 1.2618 mark, corresponding to 127.2% Fibonacci, indicates the market's readiness for new short positions. I advise selling with targets set around the 1.2443 mark.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 1, 2023
GBP/USD
As a result of yesterday, the pound fell by 46 points, returning below the 1.2684 level. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart isn't in a hurry to move downwards; on the contrary, it indicates an intent to rise above the zero line.
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If the pound realizes this intention, then the pair could rise in the target range of 1.2799-1.2814. Traders across markets are eagerly awaiting today's US employment data for August. If they turn out to be strong, the pound might head towards 1.2547.
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On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the MACD indicator line, with the Marlin oscillator in a waiting position in the uptrend territory. While waiting for the US data, the price might rise above 1.2684, which would significantly improve the bulls' positions.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 4, 2023
EUR/USD
The short-term battle of speculators with the release of US employment data ended in favor of the dollar bulls. The dollar index rose by 0.58%, US government bond yields increased (from 4.25% to 4.30% for 5-year bonds), and stock markets closed mixed. The euro lost 66 pips, reaching the target support at 1.0774. Is this a signal or condition for a medium-term decline? At the very least, we need to wait for the price to settle below 1.0774. Next, we need to confirm a confident reversal of the S&P 500. In other words, the initial conditions can only emerge tomorrow. If this doesn't happen, the euro may rise again, attempting to surpass 1.0931 (MACD line).
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We currently have a downtrend on the daily chart, so the nearest target is the level of 1.0692. Overcoming this target could result in the pair aiming for the 1.0483-1.0552 range, which includes the descending price channel line and the Fibonacci retracement level.
There is also potential for a bullish scenario, indicated by the emerging convergence between price and the Marlin oscillator.
If the pound realizes this intention, then the pair could rise in the target range of 1.2799-1.2814. Traders across markets are eagerly awaiting today's US employment data for August. If they turn out to be strong, the pound might head towards 1.2547.
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On the four-hour chart, the price has paused at the target support of 1.0774. Consolidating below this level will allow the price to reach the target at 1.0692, but the euro can only reach this level if the stock market remains weak.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 5, 2023
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro gained 19 pips despite a relatively muted day. From a technical perspective, the situation has not changed. A close below 1.0774 would pave the way for the bears to reach 1.0692. However, there is a nuance here – it could break the support or a false consolidation to create a distinct convergence with the oscillator rather than leaving it weak as we see it now. On the other hand, it could gradually rise towards the nearest resistance level at 1.0834, then 1.0865, and ultimately 1.0931.
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On the 4-hour chart, we have a neutral situation because the price is moving sideways within the 1.0774-1.0834 range. The Marlin oscillator is also moving sideways, and the price is below both indicator lines, and there is no clear direction.
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There are no clues on the external side. In the euro area, the composite PMI index for August is expected to fall from 48.6 to 47.0. In the United States, factory orders for July are expected to drop by 2.5%. We await further developments.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 7, 2023
GBP/USD
The pound has reached an important support level from the embedded line of the global descending price channel. The brewing convergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart warns of a price reversal which indicates a deep correction, possibly towards the range of 1.2799-1.2814, i.e. to the MACD indicator line.
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According to the Fibonacci retracement, such a correction would be 50.0%. If the price reaches the support at 1.2447 and turns around, the Fibonacci levels will also be corrective in nature, marking the lows of August 3 and 14 at 23.6%. Once we confirm that the price has settled below 1.2447, we can then consider 1.2307 as a target.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is rhythmically declining below the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is developing in a descending channel but already shows an intention to leave this area by moving upwards. Yesterday's decline was caused by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech in Parliament, where he mentioned reaching the peak of interest rates. However, markets still expect the last rate hike in early 2024, and such sentiment won't hinder corrective growth.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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XAUUSD H4 | Reacting off 1st Resistance?
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The XAU/USD chart currently has a bullish momentum, indicating a potential upward trend. There's a likelihood of continued bullish movement towards the first resistance. The first support at 1913.49 is significant, aligning with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement. The second support at 1901.55 is also noteworthy, aligning with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement. On the resistance side, the first resistance at 1931.97 aligns with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, and the second resistance at 1943.88 aligns with the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Asset, Monday, September 11 2023
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With the penetration of the three important levels of the CCI indicator on the 4 hour timeframe, the Gold commodity asset indicates that Sellers are dominating this commodity asset, even though there is currently an upward correction to test the Equal High level of 1928.17, but as long as it does not penetrate above the 1935.42 level, Gold still has the potential to continue. The decline is especially supported by the emergence of the Bearish Continuation Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern, so Gold has the potential to go down and try to penetrate below the 1914.79 level and if this level is successfully penetrated, the level of the Daily Bullish Fair Value Gap area in the range of 1903.38-1911.29 will be the next target to be aimed at.
Analysis are provided by InstaForex.
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NZDUSD H4 | Falling to 1st support?
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The NZD/USD chart currently shows a bullish trend with potential for further upward movement. The 1st resistance at 0.5930, coinciding with the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement, is a key level that may impede bullish progress. Similarly, the 2nd resistance at 0.5992 is also significant for potential resistance.
On the downside, the 1st support at 0.5891 aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement and serves as a strong support level. The 2nd support at 0.5862, identified as a pullback support, adds to the support zone.
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JAPAN PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.3% ON MONTH IN AUGUST
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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.3 percent on month in August, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday.
That beat forecasts for an increase of 0.1 percent, which would have been unchanged from the July reading.
On a yearly basis, producer prices climbed 3.2 percent - in line with expectations and down from the downwardly revised 3.4 percent increase in the previous month (originally 3.6 percent).
Export prices were up 0.5 percent on month and down 0.8 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices slumped 0.9 percent on month and 15.9 percent on year.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 13, 2023
EUR/USD:
Yesterday, the volatile day ended in favor of the bulls. Despite the numerous target levels on the daily chart, which is due to the corrective nature of the growth, the main target is defined by the MACD line around 1.0913. Overcoming the nearest resistance at 1.0777 will open the second target at 1.0803, the low from August 23rd.
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Today, the main driving force could be the US inflation data for August. The forecast for the core CPI is 4.3% YoY, compared to 4.7% YoY the previous month, and the forecast for the CPI suggests an increase from 3.2% YoY to 3.6% YoY. If we assume that the data will come out in line with economists' calculations, investors will pay more attention to the decrease in the core CPI, as the Federal Reserve relies more on it. As a result, expectations of a rate hike will decrease, and the euro will rise.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 14, 2023
EUR/USD
Yesterday's US CPI data came in around forecast levels. The August Core CPI dropped from 4.7% YoY to 4.3% YoY, while the CPI rose from 3.2% YoY to 3.7% YoY (forecast 3.6% YoY). Considering that industrial production in the eurozone plummeted by 1.1% in July and decreased by 2.2% YoY (forecast -0.3%), the euro's decline could have been greater than the 24 pips that we saw yesterday.
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Trading volumes were substantial, indicating that there was market activity, and traders preferred to hold their positions ahead of today's European Central Bank meeting, as the probability of a rate hike stands at 68%. If investors showed an intention not to sell the euro based on US inflation data, they may buy it following the ECB meeting. The bullish target is the 1.0824/32 range. Technical convergence in action. A price above this range will open up the target of 1.0882. The MACD line is approaching this level.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is between the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is currently holding an uptrend. A waiting mode is likely until the ECB announces its rate decision.
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GBPUSD H4 | Bearish Continuation Expected?
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The GBP/USD chart currently shows a bearish momentum due to trading below the bearish Ichimoku cloud. This could lead to a continued bearish movement towards the significant 1st support level at 1.2372, which is marked as an overlap support. Additionally, the 2nd support at 1.2309 is recognized as a swing low support.
On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 1.2448 is a pullback resistance, possibly hindering upward movement. The 2nd resistance at 1.2533 is an overlap resistance, suggesting its potential as a point of reversal or resistance.
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GBPUSD Day | Bearish Continuation Expected?
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The GBP/USD chart displays a dominant bearish trend, emphasized by its position below the bearish Ichimoku cloud and a descending trend line. Key supports stand at 1.2293, backed by the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, and 1.2182, aligned with the 100% Fibonacci Projection. Resistances are identified at 1.2418 and 1.2632, with the latter being an overlap resistance. The overall outlook remains bearish.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of USD/CAD Commodity Currency Pairs, Wednesday, September 20 2023
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From the 4-hour chart of The Lonnie, it can be clearly seen that Sellers are very dominant, this can be seen from the price movement which moves regularly and harmoniously in the Pitchfork channel which dips downwards and the price movement is below the WMA (20) with a downward sloping slope as well as the CCI indicator has succeeded breaking below the three main levels (100, 0, & -100), but currently it appears that USD/CAD is being corrected upwards to test the SBR (support Become Resistance) level at the level 1.3494. As long as this upward correction does not breaks and close above the level 1.3550, then USD/CAD has the potential to continue its decline back to level 1.3422 as the main target and level 1.3380 as the second target if momentum and volatility support it.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on September 21, 2023
GBP/USD
This morning, the British pound reached the target support level of 1.2307. It took 5 days for it to move from the previous level of 1.2444. During this time, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has compressed even further into a wedge and is ready to break out of it today. If it breaks below, the first target will be the embedded price channel line at 1.2200. Then the second target will be 1.2070, which is nearly in line with the May 2020 low.
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Today, the Bank of England may raise the rate from 5.25% to 5.50% (market expectations), so Marlin could break above the wedge. If we witness a solid momentum and the price consolidates above 1.2444, it will continue to rise to the next target at 1.2547. This would mark a return to the bullish scenario towards the MACD line at 1.2684.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 22, 2023
GBP/USD:
Yesterday, the British pound fell short of reaching the support line of the price channel. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line is breaking out of the wedge and moving downwards, so the price could test the support around the 1.2200 level. However, we do not expect a deep fall, as the oscillator's wedge has been fully formed, reaching its peak, and is gradually transforming into a horizontal trend.
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A reversal towards the bullish line of the price channel could likely occur from the price channel line at 1.2200, as it aims to rise toward the target level of 1.2444. The Bank of England's decision to leave the interest rate at 5.25%, instead of the expected increase to 5.50%, did not have a significant impact on the British pound. The expected rise has been postponed for now.
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is falling below both indicator lines, and Marlin is gradually moving deeper into the downtrend. The first sign of a bullish correction would be the price closing above 1.2307. After that, the price will need to overcome the MACD line at 1.2354, which would then open the path to the target at 1.2444.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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GBPUSD Day | Bouncing off support?
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The GBP/USD chart shows a bearish trend, with focus on the 1st support at 1.2089, significant due to the convergence of the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension and the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement. The 2nd support is at 1.1845, a historical swing low. On the resistance side, the 1st resistance is at 1.2311, a pullback resistance aligned with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, serving as a potential barrier.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 26, 2023
EUR/USD
Once again, the euro is following an alternative scenario. Yesterday, the day closed with a black candle below the support at 1.0613 and below the Fibonacci channel line. The price is heading towards the target at 1.0552. The euro has a saw-toothed structure of decline, typical of corrective movements, and this correction, since July 18th, is clearly prolonged. The likely reason for this is the ongoing decline in the stock market. Now, a crisis correlation (the decline of both the stock market and the dollar) is possible in the event of a U.S. budget collapse - in the event of an emergency reduction in budget expenditures. U.S. lawmakers have a deadline until October 1st.
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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has returned to the wedge, slightly modifying it but maintaining the priority of breaking above it. We probably shouldn't expect strong movement until we reach Monday, October 2. If the budget issue in the United States is resolved by a certain deadline, we may see an appetite for risk - growth in the stock market and the euro. Thus, the single currency still has a bullish bias. Only a clearly interpreted and protracted crisis will shift the priority (our target is 0.9338).
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On the 4-hour chart, the price is decreasing after a series of unsuccessful attempts to overcome the MACD line and the balance line. Marlin has expended all its strength for growth, and it will be difficult for it to recover now. We will likely see a sideways trend until Monday.
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What are the chances of another Bank of England rate hike in November?
In order to understand how the Bank of England is going to act at the remaining two meetings in 2023, we need to consider its potential for raising interest rates. The first and most crucial indicator that the central bank (and the markets) has been relying on for some time is inflation. However, as of September, inflation remains extremely high, well above the target level. One might assume that the BoE will continue to hike rates, but in September, it took a pause. A pause can only mean two things: either the BoE is preparing to end the tightening process, or it has already completed it.
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BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and some other members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee have mentioned that they expect inflation to drop to 5% by the end of the year. A 5% inflation rate is still very high, 2.5 times above the target. If the BoE is already prepared to conclude its tightening, it may not achieve the target. Furthermore, there's no guarantee that inflation won't start accelerating again. For instance, US inflation has been rising for the past two months. All I want to convey with these arguments is that it's still too early to assume that inflation can return to 2% at the current interest rate level.
Based on that, I believe that the BoE has exhausted its potential for rate hikes, and this is the main reason for the pause in September. Now, the central bank will only raise rates if inflation starts to accelerate significantly. And in that case, the 2% target may be forgotten for several years even with a peak rate, but we could still see 1-2 more emergency rate hikes.
I also want to note that the BoE (like the European Central Bank) is counting on holding rates at the peak level for an extended period to bring inflation back to 2%. This was mentioned after last week's meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee expects inflation to slow down further, but Bailey says cutting rates would be "very premature". Four out of nine committee members voted for a rate hike at the previous meeting. In addition, the Monetary Policy Committee said its balance sheet of government debt will shrink by £100 billion.
Based on the analysis conducted, I came to the conclusion that a downward wave pattern is being formed. I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range for the downtrend are quite feasible, especially since they are quite near. Therefore, I will continue to sell the instrument. Since the downward wave did not end near the 1.0637 level, we can expect the pair to fall to the 1.05 level and slightly below. However, the second corrective wave will start sooner or later.
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The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline within the downtrend. At most, the British pound can expect the formation of wave 2 or b in the near future. However, even with a corrective wave, there are still significant challenges. At this time, I would remain cautious about selling, as there may be a corrective upward wave forming in the near future, but for now we have not seen any signals for this wave yet.
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USDCAD Day | Rising toward resistance level?
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The USD/CAD chart shows bullish momentum with a potential move towards the first resistance. There's an important first support at 1.3372, serving as an overlap support. On the resistance side, the first resistance at 1.3673 is also an overlap resistance, and the second resistance at 1.3876 is a swing high resistance.
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GBPUSD H4 | Bouncing off support?
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The GBP/USD chart is currently bearish, primarily due to its position below the bearish Ichimoku cloud. There's a potential scenario of a bullish bounce off the 1st support at 1.2067, supported by the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, and the 2nd support at 1.2011, a swing low support with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension.
On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.2124 is an overlap resistance that may impede bullish movements. Additionally, the 2nd resistance at 1.2265 is also categorized as an overlap resistance.
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