Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD April 25: The Market Awaits New Announcements from Trump

The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Thursday than during the first half of the week, and the market was also relatively more technical. Since the beginning of the week, we've been repeating the same message—market movements have been unusually erratic and chaotic, and the market is simply ignoring any macroeconomic backdrop. While the second point remained unchanged on Thursday, the first was temporarily neutralized. It is hard to determine how long that will last. Volatility on Thursday was noticeably lower. For most of the day, the euro continued to rise while the dollar declined, directly contradicting the macroeconomic data. The most important report of the day—U.S. durable goods orders—was unexpectedly much stronger than forecast. Growth amounted to +9.2% m/m. This figure is easily explained: by March, Trump's tariffs were already announced, prompting Americans to rush and purchase big-ticket items before prices surged. However, this doesn't change the essence of the report. The data significantly exceeded expectations yet failed to trigger any growth in the U.S. dollar—or even a market reaction. In short, there is no Trump news—no movement, and the dollar still doesn't grow. After strong growth on Monday and a sharp decline on Tuesday—triggered by the firing and subsequent reinstatement of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair—the price returned to the sideways channel it had been trading in all last week. Therefore, in the absence of new information from Trump, the price may continue to move sideways. Among Thursday's trading signals, we can highlight the bounce off the 1.1391 level, after which the price moved down a couple of dozen pips. While the move was small, such signals and profits are preferable to market storms and complete disregard for technical analysis.

The latest COT report is dated April 15. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had long remained bullish. Bears barely managed to gain the upper hand but quickly lost it again. The bears' advantage has visibly diminished since Trump took office, and the dollar sharply declined. We cannot definitively say that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue, but COT reports reflect the sentiment of large players—which can change rapidly under the current circumstances. We still see no fundamental factors justifying euro strength, but one significant factor is now driving dollar weakness. The pair may continue to correct for several more weeks or months, but a 16-year downtrend won't reverse so easily. The red and blue lines have now crossed again, signaling a bullish trend in the market. During the latest reporting week, the "Non-commercial" group increased its long positions by 6,800 and reduced its short positions by 2,500, resulting in a net increase of 9,300 contracts.

The EUR/USD pair maintains its upward trend on the hourly timeframe, though there is no clear trendline or channel. On the daily chart, we can officially say that the downtrend has been canceled—something that would never have happened if Trump hadn't started a trade war. Thus, the fundamental backdrop has broken the technical picture—something rare but not impossible. There is currently very little logic or technical structure in the pair's movements across all timeframes, and macroeconomic data does not impact the pair's dynamics. Trading levels for April 25: 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1321, 1.1391, 1.1474, 1.1607, 1.1666. Ichimoku lines: Senkou Span B (1.1182), Kijun-sen (1.1438). Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day and should be considered when determining trade signals. Also, don't forget to move your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction. This will help protect against potential losses if the signal is false. On Friday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the Eurozone. In the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. We've seen much more important reports recently that were utterly ignored. However, the market is still in chaos and disorder, and the EUR/USD pair may continue to trade sideways until new tariffs or Trump firings occur.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3EqWPyO

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GOLD – Technical Analysis Overview

Last week, the bulls updated historical highs and formed a new maximum extremum at 3499.58. Afterward, gold entered a downward correction towards the support of the daily short-term trend at 3346.45. The market has taken a pause. If bearish sentiment receives a new impulse for development, the next target will be the daily medium-term trend at 3227.79, and then the corrective decline may extend toward the support of the weekly short-term trend at 3164.81. Eliminating the daily golden cross at 3163.64 and consolidating below the weekly levels at 3164.81–3131.58 would open up new bearish prospects.

On the lower timeframes, the main advantage remains with the bears. The market is operating below the key levels, currently at 3334.45 (the daily central Pivot level) and 3356.56 (the weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above the trend line and its reversal could shift the current balance of forces in favor of further bullish recovery. Resistance levels will be important for the bulls if the market starts developing directed movements, and support levels will be important for the bears according to the classic pivot points. Pivot levels are updated daily, and new actual data will appear at the opening of trading. ***

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4jotDre

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – April 29: The Weak Yield, the Strong Resist

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair remained immobilized. There were no updates over the weekend from Donald Trump regarding trade developments, and no important data or events were scheduled for Monday. Therefore, the market had nothing to react to during the day. However, the EUR/USD pair has already been trading within a sideways channel for three weeks. Over the past few days, volatility has also declined significantly. Nevertheless, one should not conclude that the market has calmed down — instead, the market is waiting. Few believe that Trump will refrain from raising or introducing new tariffs. Already, reports have surfaced suggesting possible tariff hikes of up to 20% for the EU. Meanwhile, China is not engaged in negotiations with the United States, which could deeply frustrate Trump, who had counted on reaching a deal within 3–4 weeks. Therefore, it is too early to speak of the end or de-escalation of the global trade war. It must be acknowledged that many countries from "Trump's list" are negotiating with the U.S. about trade deals. However, as we stated two months ago, mainly weak countries — economically, geographically, or geopolitically — are trying to reach an agreement with the conflict-prone and "fair" U.S. president. For example, Hungary (even though it is an EU member) is eager to secure a deal. Vietnam, which faces 46% import tariffs, strives to negotiate. Talks are underway with South Korea, Japan, and several other countries. Yet this list is missing notable heavyweights like Canada, the European Union, and China. To be precise, consultations with Brussels are ongoing, but no sign of a trade deal emerging. The market cannot be cheered by progress in talks with Vietnam. The American market and U.S. investments constitute half of Vietnam's economy. The U.S. is an important economic partner for the EU and China, but cooperation with the U.S. is far less important than it is for Vietnam. It is also important to understand that America is a competitor to the EU and China, while Vietnam is unlikely to compete with the U.S. Thus, weaker players seek agreements with Trump, while stronger ones resist and demand a fair and equitable deal. The market is interested in progress with China and the EU. Without progress, the dollar cannot gain strength against its major competitors. Therefore, after reaching another high, the price has simply been moving sideways for three weeks. Current movements cannot be described as technical either since we barely observe any corrections. Accordingly, there is a 90% probability that market movements (or lack thereof) this week will depend solely on the U.S. president.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 29 is 101 pips, which is considered "high." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1284 and 1.1485 on Tuesday. The long-term regression channel is pointing upward, indicating a short-term uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone for the third time, signaling a new corrective movement phase, which, so far, is very weak — as were previous ones. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1230 S2 – 1.0986 S3 – 1.0742 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1475 R2 – 1.1719 R3 – 1.1963 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair maintains a short-term upward bias. For months, we have consistently said that we expect the euro to decline in the medium term, and nothing has changed. The dollar still has no fundamental reasons for a medium-term fall—other than Donald Trump. Yet this single factor continues to push the dollar into an abyss while the market ignores all other factors. If you are trading based on "pure" technical analysis or "Trump factor," long positions remain relevant as long as the price stays above the moving average, targeting 1.1719. If the price consolidates below the moving average, short positions formally become relevant with targets at 1.1230 and 1.0986 — though it is currently hard to believe in a dollar rally. In recent weeks, there have been no new developments regarding the escalation or de-escalation of the trade war, which explains the ongoing flat movement in the market. Explanation of Illustrations: Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend. Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction. Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings. CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3Gu06xI

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – May 5: A New Week of Ordeals for the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair remained flat on Friday. The day saw both upward and downward movements. It is a notable achievement for the dollar that it has appreciated over the past five trading days rather than declined. While we constantly mention the irrational nature of recent movements—as the market has mostly been driven by the "Trump factor" in recent months—last week's U.S. macroeconomic data largely pointed to another wave of dollar depreciation, and Donald Trump remained silent on the trade war. Therefore, the U.S. dollar could easily have ended the week with significant losses, but that didn't happen, again underscoring the market's illogical behavior. We won't focus too much on Friday's U.S. data as the market broadly ignores data releases. What was so positive on Friday? That April's Nonfarm Payrolls beat forecasts? So what if the March figure was revised downward? The unemployment rate didn't change—what's optimistic about that? Wages showed no significant changes. And there were no other major reports. Meanwhile, earlier in the week, the GDP report disappointed, pointing toward an approaching recession in the U.S. economy. If the U.S. labor market still holds up, that may be temporary. That said, we'd note that the dollar could indeed rise in the near term. This could happen simply because it has been falling for several months. Of course, if Trump tomorrow revokes concessions and escalates the trade war again, the dollar will likely collapse. However, the market has already priced up in the current round of Trump's sanctions. Technical corrections are still a natural part of the market cycle. In short, the worst-case scenario has already played out. Therefore, the dollar may stop falling if no further trade war escalation occurs. Currently, the Federal Reserve is the main threat to the U.S. currency. No one on the market seems to understand what the U.S. central bank will do next. If it rushes to rescue the economy, rate cuts are a bearish signal for the dollar. But if it aims to maintain inflation at a steady 2%, then rates likely won't be cut anytime soon, and the market won't have a new reason to sell the dollar. We expect a correction for now, but the hourly timeframe clearly shows that the pair has been trading within a sideways channel for over three weeks. The 1.1274 level, which serves as the lower boundary of this channel, still hasn't been broken. Flat conditions will persist as long as the price remains in the channel.

The EUR/USD pair's average volatility over the last five trading days as of May 5 is 82 pips, which is considered "average." On Monday, we expect the pair to move between 1.1218 and 1.1382. The long-term regression channel is directed upward, indicating a short-term uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area three times recently, resulting in only a minor correction. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1230 S2 – 1.1108 S3 – 1.0986 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1353 R2 – 1.1475 R3 – 1.1597 Trading Recommendations: EUR/USD has begun a new round of downward correction within a broader uptrend. For months now, we've maintained that we expect the euro to fall in the medium term, and that hasn't changed. The dollar still lacks reasons for a medium-term rally—except for Donald Trump. However, that one reason alone has continued to drag the dollar lower, and the market is ignoring all other factors for now. If you trade based purely on technicals or Trump headlines, then long positions remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average, with a target at 1.1475. If the price is below the moving average, short positions are appropriate, with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1218. It's hard to believe in a strong dollar rally, but a dollar rebound is still possible. Explanation of Illustrations: Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend. Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction. Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings. CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3ROcU4E

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – May 7: The Fed Meeting Becomes the Dollar's New "Headache"

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade strictly sideways on Tuesday. The broader flat market has now lasted for nearly a month, and in addition to that, the market seems to have formed another, narrower sideways channel visible on the hourly time frame. In other words, we're now witnessing a flat within a flat — a total standstill. Last week, even a slew of key U.S. data couldn't help traders start a new trend, and there haven't been any significant developments this week. However, there are a few points worth highlighting.

First, the new trading week began with fresh tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. This time, the consensus is that he has targeted the domestic film industry. It's no secret that most of the world's film production centers in the U.S., but much of the filming happens abroad for economic reasons. Trump decided to "fix" this. Now, any film shot outside the United States will be subject to a 100% import tax. In our view, these tariffs are not as large-scale or impactful as those on automobile or steel imports, or those targeting specific countries. If Trump wants to damage his own film industry, that's his prerogative. However, these new tariffs make one thing clear: Trump's policy direction has not changed, despite his three-week pause.

Second, we'll get the Federal Reserve's policy meeting results this evening. Although the outcome is essentially known — Powell has repeatedly stressed there is no rush to ease monetary policy — the market could still start trading more actively. What can we expect from the Fed and Powell this evening? Either Powell's rhetoric remains unchanged, which would not inspire confidence in dollar buyers, or his tone turns more dovish, giving the market a fresh reason to sell the dollar.

In either case, a rate hike is not on the table, and the U.S. dollar has already fallen hard even when the European Central Bank was cutting rates and the Fed was holding steady. Therefore, the most likely outcome this evening is that the dollar either declines or holds its ground, but not more than that. Of course, we must acknowledge that anything is possible in the FX market. Last week is a perfect example: despite a flood of disappointing U.S. macroeconomic data, the dollar grew for four straight days.

Logic and consistency remain in short supply, so even a dollar rally on dovish remarks from Powell is not impossible. Still, we base our forecasts on logic, fundamentals, and macroeconomics. How can one reasonably forecast dollar strength if the Fed may soften its stance? Regardless, the dollar has not appreciated enough in recent weeks to claim that a downtrend in EUR/USD has begun.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3Z1jtVd

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 8, 2025

As expected, the Federal Reserve left its monetary policy unchanged following yesterday's meeting. Jerome Powell only slightly reinforced the market's expectations of rising inflation. Markets still anticipate the first rate cut in July, which is expected to coincide with the Treasury's launch of a new debt issuance cycle (at this point, Trump is likely to convince Congress to raise the debt ceiling without difficulty). Today, important data from Germany is due. The trade balance for March is expected to rise from €17.7 billion to €19.0 billion, and industrial production is forecast to show a 0.9% increase for the same month.

The technical picture for the euro also supports a bullish outlook. On the daily chart, we see a test of support with Tuesday's low, while Wednesday's black candle failed to reach this support. This morning, the price resumed its upward movement. A move by the Marlin oscillator into positive territory would confirm further growth. Three growth targets are 1.1420, 1.1535, and 1.1692 (October 2021 high). From that perspective, the current 1.1276–1.1420 range appears to be a consolidation zone before continuing a medium-term upward trend.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has formed a brief consolidation and is now preparing to enter the bullish zone. However, the balance line indicator currently acts as resistance, with the MACD line at 1.1360 being the next resistance level. Strong German data may help the price break through these technical barriers. If the price consolidates below the 1.1276 support level, an alternative scenario involving a decline toward the 1.1110–1.1150 zone remains possible.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/43j7jcR

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – May 12: The Dollar's Success Is Unstable


The EUR/USD currency pair slightly rebounded upward on Friday, and overall, it has been gradually sliding down for several weeks. The movement has been so sluggish that we recently classified it as a flat market. However, at this point on the hourly timeframe, the pair has exited the sideways channel, making it reasonable to refer to this as a downward correction against the three-month uptrend. Were there reasons for the dollar to strengthen? Yes, and quite a few. The current fundamental backdrop consists primarily of the trade war initiated by Trump—this factor alone outweighs all others, which collectively have no more than a 20% influence on the market. As a result, no matter how good the news from the U.S. may be (if it's unrelated to trade conflict), the dollar struggles to grow. In recent weeks, we saw a fairly strong NonFarm Payrolls report, a reasonably solid unemployment figure (under the current circumstances), and a decent ISM Business Activity Index. In addition, the Federal Reserve once again left the key interest rate unchanged, and Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation remains the top priority and there's no rush to cut rates. These major macroeconomic indicators and policy actions supported the dollar. The only disappointment was the Q1 U.S. GDP report, which traders had largely priced in. While no one expected an outright contraction, the result reflected a logical response to Trump's trade policies. Whether the economy slowed or contracted isn't the main concern; the real risk is that continued trade conflict could turn this into a long-term recession. That would be a serious problem for the U.S. economy and the dollar. It's also worth noting that over the last three weeks, Trump hasn't introduced any new tariffs and now speaks only of upcoming deals and potential tariff reductions for countries that meet U.S. demands. Currently, only one deal has been signed—with the UK. Many experts see this more as a symbolic agreement designed to push other countries to the negotiation table. However, deals with economic heavyweights like China and the EU are what really matter for the dollar and the U.S. economy, and progress there remains lacking. So yes, the dollar has strengthened in recent weeks, but the market is still reluctant to buy it due to ongoing concerns over Trump. If trade tensions continue to ease, the dollar might gradually recover. But everyone understands that Trump is unpredictable. We wouldn't be surprised if the "first act" of his performance (trade deals) is followed by a "second act" that spells trouble again.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3YIkIc1

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 14, 2025

On Tuesday, the euro chose not to continue resisting market sentiment and joined the broader risk-on trend. The U.S. stock index S&P 500 rose by 0.72%, the dollar index declined by 0.76%, and the euro appreciated by 0.88% (99 pips). The euro was also bolstered by positive ZEW economic sentiment data, which rose from -18.5 in April to 11.6 in May.

On the daily chart, the price rebounded from the MACD line, broke above the 1.1110/50 range, and is approaching the target level of 1.1276. A breakout of this resistance would open the path to the next target at 1.1420. The Marlin oscillator has reversed to the upside.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into bullish territory. The price is nearing the MACD line. A consolidation above this line (1.1214) would enable an attack on the 1.1276 resistance level (the July 2023 high). It is unlikely that an alternative bearish scenario will develop. For it to unfold, the price would need to consolidate below the daily MACD line, under the 1.1100 level.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/437CxE5

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for May 15, 2025

By the end of yesterday's trading session, the USD/JPY pair declined by 73 pips, testing the MACD indicator line with a lower shadow. It's clear that an attempt to consolidate within the 145.08–145.91 range was made, but the effort was premature due to the presence of the MACD line within this zone.

In about 24 hours, the MACD line may move below the lower boundary of the range, allowing the price to prepare for a breakout toward the target level at 143.45. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has broken through the 23.6% retracement level, indicating that the bears have support. Overall, we expect a breakout of the 145.08–145.91 range within two days, although there's a slight chance it could happen immediately, as it did on April 10 (marked by a green checkmark). Therefore, we are closely monitoring the market's developments.

The price has consolidated below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, and the Marlin oscillator has settled into bearish territory. As long as the opening gap remains unfilled, the overall price trajectory remains downward. After a brief consolidation, the price will likely continue toward the target level of 143.45.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3HaOq3d

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 19, 2025

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...4d_source!.jpg

On Friday, the euro failed to sustain its upward movement, but it also didn't fall below the daily-scale MACD indicator line—the day closed with a black candlestick, but still above the upper boundary of the 1.1110/50 range.

Monday began with a slight upward move and a small gap—again, around the MACD line. After the gap quickly closes, the price will most likely head upward toward the target level at 1.1266. After three days of consolidation, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has turned upward.

On the H4 chart, the price on Friday was also supported by the MACD line, but the Marlin oscillator broke downward out of its wedge pattern, transforming the structure into a flag, which is also considered a continuation pattern. Thus, under the main scenario, we expect a bullish reversal and an attempt to consolidate above the 1.1266 level to pave the way for further growth toward 1.1420.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/410961

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 22, 2025

On Wednesday, the euro successfully consolidated above the 1.1266 level and the balance indicator line. The next target levels are 1.1420 and 1.1535. The Marlin oscillator is about to enter the area of upward trend momentum.

Today, strong economic reports are expected from the Eurozone. Germany's IFO Business Expectations Index for May is forecast to rise from 87.4 to 88.0, while the Eurozone Composite PMI may increase from 50.4 to 50.7. In the U.S., the Services PMI for May is expected to rise from 50.8 to 51.0 points. These figures could help maintain market risk appetite.

The price continues its planned upward movement above the indicator lines and support levels on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator has slightly pulled back to ease tension and prepare for further growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3ZjKKCP

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 23, 2025

The Eurozone PMI data for May, published yesterday, was disappointing. The Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.0 to 48.4 (vs. expectations of 49.2), and the Services PMI declined from 50.1 to 48.9 (vs. forecast of 50.4). In addition, several European Central Bank members (Knot, Wunsch, Centeno) spoke in favor of a "timely" rate cut at the next meeting. These developments pushed the euro down by 47 pips. On the other hand, the U.S. PMI data was strong: Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3 (vs. 49.2 forecast and 50.2 in April) Services PMI rose from 50.8 to 52.3 (vs. forecast of 51.0) Initial jobless claims fell from 229K to 227K Despite this, stock indices closed mixed (S&P 500 -0.04%), which forced the markets to pause and reassess. Thus, European developments alone are unlikely to change the current upward trend in the euro. Instead, this signals the need to watch equity markets more closely.

The euro only slightly pierced through the 1.1256 support level on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator bounced off the boundary of the bullish territory, suggesting a technical correction for the euro. Today began with upward momentum, and Marlin is again attempting to break through the zero line from below. A white daily candle today could lay the groundwork for stronger bullish momentum next week. At this point, the market seems to have already factored in the rate cut expected in June. Today, Germany's Q1 GDP will be released (forecast: +0.2% after a -0.2% drop in Q4). The U.S. will publish new home sales data for April, expected at 694K versus 724K in March. These figures could further support the euro's growth if they meet expectations.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4kbA4yp

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 26, 2025

On Friday, the euro successfully broke above both the balance indicator line and the recent high from May 21. The price is now approaching the next target level at 1.1420, and a breakout above this level would open the path to the next target at 1.1535. If the price consolidates above that, the third target at 1.1692 will come into play.

The Marlin oscillator has established itself in bullish territory and will now continue to support the price movement as long as it does not enter the overbought zone under the main scenario. The price is climbing above the upward-sloping balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. A consolidation above the nearest resistance at 1.1420 will allow the price to continue this upward path.

There is a suggestion that the price and the Marlin oscillator may be setting up conditions for a bearish divergence, but this impression emerged after a brief dip below the zero line (gray rectangle), which is now interpreted as a false signal. Therefore, the signal line may continue rising into the overbought zone, and no divergence may form.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4dvulRj

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for May 28, 2025

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair posted solid growth—0.90% or 149 pips—on the back of a 0.42% strengthening of the U.S. dollar index. As a result, the price is now trading above the daily balance, and MACD indicator lines, and even the Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory.

The price may enter the 145.08–145.91 range, but there is a risk that the breakout above the indicator lines is a false move. If the price drops below 143.45 (reinforced by the MACD line), this would confirm the false breakout and support a decline toward the target support at 141.70, potentially continuing to 139.59. If the price does enter the 145.08–145.91 range but fails to hold within it, a reversal back to 143.45 is also expected soon after. Only a confirmed breakout above the 145.91 level would open the door to an alternative scenario, implying further growth toward 148.66.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has slowed down its advance after interacting with the MACD line. The correction reached 38.2% of the latest downward leg, sufficient to complete a corrective phase. Overall, the pair is in a neutral state, and price action over the next one to two days may consist of sideways or erratic movement without clear directional bias.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/452rm0N

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 29, 2025

Main News of the Day: The U.S. Federal Trade Court has blocked the permanent implementation of import tariffs introduced by President Trump, ruling that he exceeded his authority. As an initial reaction to this news, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.53%, S&P 500 futures added 1.50%, and the euro is moving toward testing the target support level at 1.1066. A breakdown below this level would open the path toward 1.0955.

We do not oppose such an unexpected turn of events, at least not in terms of a broad and long-term dollar strengthening, since we have viewed the rise of anti-dollar currencies as a temporary phenomenon from the beginning of the sanctions war. But will today become a pivotal moment? It's quite possible—if, on the weekly chart, the price consolidates below the MACD line, which coincides with May's low at 1.1066. Should this happen, the first downside target would be the March 26 low at 1.0733.

The daily chart shows that the price has broken below the MACD line and the support level at 1.1266. The Marlin oscillator has plunged deeper into negative territory. However, if today's candlestick closes at least at the opening level, this downward move may prove to be false, and the dollar's global advance would be postponed. In that case, the euro might attempt to overcome the 1.1535 level, with a target of 1.1692. Considering market momentum, the absence of clear reversal patterns, stock market optimism, rising yields on U.S. government bonds, and the lack of a yield curve inversion, we maintain the euro's growth as the main scenario.

On the H4 chart, the price has settled below the MACD line and the 1.1266 level. However, this move may turn out to be false. A rise above the MACD line—specifically above the 1.1290 mark, which also coincides with the MACD line on the daily chart—would be a strong signal for growth toward the target level of 1.1420.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3Fv2ioH

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 2, 2025

The euro closed Friday with a black candle but consolidated above the balance and MACD indicator lines. During today's Pacific session, the price surpassed Friday's opening and approached its high.

The Marlin oscillator's signal line turned upward from the neutral zero line. It is evident that the target level of 1.1420 is likely to be reached soon. A breakout above this resistance opens the path toward the 1.1535 target. On the H4 chart, the price reversed upward from the support of the MACD line on Friday.

The Marlin oscillator returned to the growth zone after a false dip into the negative area (gray rectangle). The trend is upward on both timeframes, and we expect the price to reach the 1.1535 target level. The upward movement will likely continue toward the 1.1692 level — the peak from October 2021.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4dMnW4v

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on June 3, 2025



On Monday, the yen strongly broke through the MACD line support and the target level at 143.45, moving 134 pips. The Marlin oscillator has settled into the bearish territory.

If the price fails to climb back above 143.45, it will next work toward testing the 141.70 support. A drop below this level would open the path toward the 139.59 target (the low from September 2024).

On the four-hour scale, the price has consolidated below the 143.45 level. Before the price could retest it as resistance, the MACD line had already dipped below the level, reinforcing it. The probability of the price rising above 143.45, which the Marlin oscillator had indicated, has significantly decreased. We expect the downward trend to continue.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3HoE1RI

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 4, 2025

Yesterday's inflation data from the Eurozone slightly slowed the euro's growth amid a continued stock market rally (Dow Jones +0.51%). However, considering the market's growth amid several challenges—including China's ban on rare earth metal exports, difficulties in U.S. negotiations with both China and Europe, hints that Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine might be restored, and impending global energy shortages due to AI development—along with a proposed bill in Congress to impose a 20% tax on foreign investor income, this market rally appears overly optimistic. Specifically, Eurozone core CPI for May fell from 2.7% YoY to 2.3% YoY (forecast was 2.4% YoY), and overall CPI declined from 2.2% YoY to 1.9% YoY, against an aggressive forecast of 2.0% YoY.

Yet the euro remains optimistic — yesterday's decline didn't reach any indicator lines on the daily scale, and today started with a new round of growth. Also, the Marlin oscillator's signal line turned upward without reaching the border of the downward trend territory. Only if the price consolidates below the MACD line, under the 1.1343 mark, would a deeper correction (targeting 1.1066) become possible. However, the price needs to break above the immediate resistance at 1.1420 to resume growth. The targets remain the same: 1.1535 and 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the price consolidated below the MACD line yesterday. However, this seems to have been a false breakout, as the Marlin oscillator is now turning upward from the zero line. We believe that consolidation above 1.1420 — unlike the situation on June 2–3 (gray rectangle) — will form a more sustainable structure for further growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4kkqqtj

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 5, 2025

After three days of struggle, the euro has broken through the 1.1420 resistance level. Now, the target at 1.1535 is open. A breakthrough above this level would allow the growth to continue toward 1.1692. The Marlin oscillator, positioned in positive territory, persistently pushes the price upward.

Such a signal on the day the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates is concerning. We believe that the euro's complex rise since mid-May has already taken this rate cut into account, particularly when we compare the euro's performance to that of other currencies, which have been stronger. Market participants may find hawkish hints in the comments from monetary officials (as is often the case) and will continue to drive the euro higher.

On the four-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line and above the 1.1420 level, while the Marlin oscillator is rising in positive territory. We expect the upward movement to continue.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/453JHKO

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 9, 2025

Moderately optimistic US employment data revived the dollar, causing it to rise by 0.44%. The euro dropped by 50 pips. A divergence with the stock market occurred as the S&P 500 rose by 1.03%. However, one day of decoupling is not enough to push the euro out of its risk-on pursuit, especially since, technically, there is no such process at the moment — Friday's decline was precisely halted at the daily MACD line (1.1372).

The price needs to consolidate below Friday's low to reach 1.1266. The Marlin oscillator has also not left the growth territory. However, for the possibility of advancing upward toward the target level of 1.1535, the price must consolidate above 1.1420. Here, the stock market could lend support, maintaining resilience even after Tesla's epic stock plunge. Beyond that, we expect growth toward 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the divergence has played out, and the Marlin oscillator has secured a position in negative territory. At the same time, Marlin has formed a new ascending channel (in green), suggesting the divergence may have already been completed. A stronger confirmation of the expected growth would be a breakout above the MACD line around the 1.1450 mark.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4l0HSTJ

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 11, 2025

Yesterday, the US dollar attempted to push the euro below key technical support levels marked by the daily Balance and MACD indicator lines, but the euro withstood the pressure and closed the day above the 1.1420 resistance level.

Today opened above this level, and the indicator lines, marking a critical moment: it's the last day the single currency can potentially develop an upward move, as the price is now at the apex of a triangle formed by the target level and the MACD line. If today's candlestick turns out to be bearish (a "black" day), the 1.1266 target will come into play. However, the main scenario remains bullish, targeting 1.1536, and a solid consolidation above this level would allow a continuation of growth toward 1.1632.

On the four-hour chart, the price is in a weak technical position due to trading below the MACD line, but it is holding above 1.1420, providing some groundwork for an attack on the MACD line at 1.1470. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating along the zero line, offering no real support to the price at the moment. However, the short-term trend remains upward, and a breakout to the upside—both for the price and the oscillator—is more likely than a decline.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/413285

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025

The U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday stirred the markets: the dollar index dropped by 0.47%, WTI oil surged by 5.54%, gold rose by 1.27%, and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from 4.08% to 4.01%. The core CPI for May remained unchanged at 2.8% y/y, falling short of the 2.9% y/y forecast, while the headline CPI rose from 2.3% to 2.4% y/y, below the 2.5% forecast. Investors interpreted these figures as potentially influencing the Federal Reserve toward easing its policy, all while preserving a semblance of independence. While Fed funds futures still suggest a rate cut in September, the bond market appears to be pricing in such a move as early as the upcoming June 18 meeting, as yield curve inversions are becoming more widespread. This is enough to sustain euro-buying interest for at least another week.

According to the weekly chart, we expect EUR/USD to rise first toward the target level at 1.1692, followed by a move to 1.1815, the September 2018 high, which aligns with the upper boundary of the price channel.

The daily chart shows the price testing the first resistance at 1.1535. A minor pause may occur after breaking above this level, as it is near the April 21 high, and some consolidation is likely before continuation. Beyond that, we expect a rally toward 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the price broke above both indicator lines and is growing steadily, while the Marlin oscillator broke out of consolidation to the upside. The initial bullish momentum has already occurred.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/44dnSaH

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – June 13: America's Economy Gets Lucky

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its strong upward movement throughout Thursday. Is anyone still puzzled as to why the U.S. dollar keeps falling? From our point of view, the reasons are obvious and don't even require deep analysis.

Essentially, there's only one reason — Donald Trump. Before Trump became president of the U.S. for a second time, the dollar was preparing to storm parity with the euro. And this was a realistic goal, considering the growth rates of the U.S. and European economies. However, the new-old leader of the U.S. took immediate action, and the markets tumbled.

While the U.S. stock market recovered quickly (thanks to internal demand for still-attractive American equities), the dollar was not so lucky. In fact, Trump is probably satisfied with the results of his first four months in office. The dollar is plummeting, and even during his first term he wanted to weaken the currency by pushing the Federal Reserve to lower rates, arguing that U.S. goods were too expensive for foreign buyers.

Now the dollar has significantly depreciated, and stock markets have hardly lost anything. Is it time to declare victory? But it's far too early for that. Not a single trade deal has been signed so far, and the U.S. may declare a default on its external obligations this summer. The economy slowed by 0.3% in the first quarter after several years of steady 2–3% quarterly growth. Inflation is rising — albeit slowly (which is lucky for the U.S. economy, considering the volume of tariffs).

High inflation combined with low economic growth equals stagflation. So we can say this: Trump has achieved some of his goals, but who in the U.S. benefits? Who will thank Trump for higher inflation, slower economic growth, domestic instability, protests, and unrest in many American cities? As for the dollar and its movement on the forex market, things are now quite straightforward.

Nothing is protecting the U.S. currency from further declines. Even positive fundamental and macroeconomic data, which do occasionally appear, are only enough to trigger minor corrections. So, the renewed dollar collapse does not surprise us at all.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/413582

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4kLe3H4

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview – June 16: How Trump Is Undermining the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair will remain under the influence of geopolitics and politics in the new week. Essentially, we've been saying the same thing every day for the past four months: all movements in the foreign exchange market are directly tied to Donald Trump's actions, decisions, and plans. It's only been four months since Trump became president, and look at how many global events have occurred! It's not just about the trade war that Trump has unleashed against China and 74 other countries. One can also point to the Republican's inability to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, even though he, as a U.S. presidential candidate, had promised to do so "within 24 hours." Trump likely believed that his authority gave him enough leverage over Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to convince them to end the conflict. In practice, however, he had no influence on the two presidents of the warring nations. So, Trump turned to his favorite tool—threats. He said that if Kyiv refused to engage in peace talks, he would freeze all aid to Ukraine. If Russia refused peace, he would impose a new sanctions package on Moscow and introduce a 500% tariff on all countries importing energy resources from Russia. As one might expect, these measures also failed to produce significant results. There's also the "One big, beautiful bill" that Trump is eager to pass. Almost all experts have called this bill "disastrous" for the U.S. economy, as it entails cutting support for the poor and vulnerable segments of the population while lowering taxes... mainly for the wealthy and well-off. Trump has also proposed making tips tax-exempt. Many experts, including Elon Musk, have stated that this new law would increase the U.S. national debt by another 3 trillion dollars. Let us recall that Trump had promised to reduce the national debt. And the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has taken on new dimensions under Trump, is the cherry on top. The leader of the Republican Party, who promised to end many wars and styled himself as a peacemaker deserving of a Nobel Prize, has effectively admitted that the White House is behind the attacks on Iran, which refuses to abandon uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons development. Trump is now giving Iran a chance to resume negotiations, but it's clear that Tehran will not abandon its long-standing policy (which has remained unchanged for decades despite sweeping sanctions) just because Washington wants it to. Thus, it seems a new war in the Middle East involving the U.S. is on the horizon.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/44fLmMh

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 18, 2025

On the final day before the Federal Reserve meeting, the euro could not withstand the broad market risk-off sentiment and dropped by 80 pips, halting at the MACD line on the daily chart. We anticipate dovish or even explicitly dovish signals from today's Fed release and Jerome Powell's remarks.

We do not even rule out a rate cut, despite the market pricing in a 97.9% chance of the rate being held unchanged. Still, we note that over the past week, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut has increased from 1.8% to 2.1%, and the yield curve divergence in government bonds has become more pronounced compared to a week ago. Moreover, the Middle East conflict could serve as a convenient reason for the Fed to lower rates "without regard for Trump" or currency speculators. If this happens, the dollar and the stock market may m

On the H4 chart, the price has formed a flag — a classic trend continuation pattern. To confirm this signal, the pair must consolidate above the resistance level of 1.1535, which would also signify a breakout above the MACD line. Now, we just have to wait for the Fed's decision.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4nnD4K6

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 23, 2025

EUR/USD A bearish divergence has formed on the weekly chart for the euro. We are preparing for a reversal into a long-term downward trend, but divergences with a gap often unfold in a complex manner. Thus, the price may still work through the target level at 1.1692, with the divergence evolving in form. A similar scenario occurred in November–December 2020.

Additionally, we are keeping a close eye on the stock market, as we believe the anticipated reversal will likely coincide with a market correction. On the daily chart, Monday opened below the MACD line. If the day ends with a black candlestick, we may see consolidation in the 1.1420–1.1535 range for a few days before the gap is closed.

Closing the gap would imply a breakout above the MACD line and possibly beyond 1.1535, opening the path toward the target level at 1.1692 (October 2021 high). There are also prominent levels above this area from 2021, which the price may attempt to reach. However, that would invalidate the weekly divergence.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/45CldbW

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – June 25: Why Did the Dollar Fall Again?

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, which had started on Monday. Let us recall that on Monday, everyone expected a "rollercoaster" right at the market open, i.e., during the night. However, the real action came closer to the evening. The first two trading days of the week were packed with events—of various kinds—capable of supporting both the dollar and the euro. So why did the U.S. currency fall out of favor with the market once again? If we were to list all the reasons, one article certainly wouldn't be enough. So, let's start with the most local and obvious ones. As early as Monday, we mentioned that the dollar might benefit from another escalation in the Middle East, this time initiated by the U.S. But just think: can the dollar even hypothetically be considered a "safe haven" if one of the warring parties is the U.S.? The second reason is that Trump launched a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, and the next day, missiles were flying back—toward Qatar, Israel, and U.S. military bases. And, notably, Iran hit the American bases. The third reason is that Trump thanked Iran for warning Washington in advance about the upcoming strike. Honestly, the only word that comes to mind here is "farce." Can this even be a war if the participants warn each other before launching attacks? Naturally, the market immediately concluded that this was not a war but a performance. That might be better in some ways—since human casualties were avoided, and that is most important. But at the same time, if the dollar had any hopes of strengthening due to a Middle East escalation, the market realized yesterday that this "escalation" was theatrical and staged. And it gets even more bizarre. On Tuesday morning, Donald Trump announced a ceasefire. The U.S. President was so eager to establish peace somewhere—anywhere—that he declared the war over without waiting for any official statements from Iran or Israel. And just a few hours later, Iranian missiles took to the skies again. Once more, if this weren't about deadly weapons of mass destruction, the whole situation could be considered a comedy. For the rest of Tuesday, Trump posted angry messages every half hour on his own social network, expressing his dissatisfaction not only with Iran but also with Israel. In the afternoon, Trump tried to persuade Israel not to launch retaliatory strikes, and we're left wondering—does the U.S. President believe that Iranian and Israeli leaders check his Twitter feed before initiating missile attacks? Frankly, we don't even know how to respond to this circus anymore. But the market certainly does. Why should it buy the dollar—even without the caveat "if Donald Trump remains president"? America has turned from a country with the strongest economy and military into a laughingstock. And these are just the reasons the dollar fell on Monday and Tuesday. Should we even bother listing why the U.S. currency has fallen for five months?


Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3IdLN15

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin Forecast for June 30, 2025

Bitcoin Bitcoin spent last week in a very strong bullish mood (up 7.84%), fully overlapping the weekly candle from June 15–21 and breaking above the internal line of the price channel. It seems poised to carry that momentum into the new week.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator sharply turned upward without testing the zero line, indicating readiness for active growth. After the price breaks above the 111,952 level (May's high), the next target opens up at 117,730 — the next internal line of the rising price channel.

On the daily chart, the price has moved sideways and slightly upward for the past six sessions, staying above the price channel line. This morning, the price broke above the MACD line, supported by the Marlin oscillator turning upward. The next expected move is a firm consolidation above the MACD line.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4nrdELx

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 3, 2025



Ahead of today's U.S. employment data release for June, the euro consolidated near the price channel line on the daily chart. The long lower shadow of the candlestick suggests that market participants were inclined to buy the euro, especially as all preliminary labor data have been pointing in that direction. For example, ADP private sector employment showed a decline of 33,000, versus a forecasted increase of 99,000, and the May figure was revised downward from 37,000 to 29,000. The forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls is 120,000, down from 139,000 in May, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. We do not expect stronger figures, as the number of unemployed people has been increasing on a weekly basis. However, there is a significant caveat – the data can easily be "adjusted" in a more favorable direction. This kind of data manipulation was widely used from 2007 to 2015, likely with the sole purpose of regulating the market.

We now await the data release. Upside targets: 1.1905, 1.1990. Downside targets: 1.1663/92, 1.1535. It's worth noting that an increase in the euro does not necessarily open up prospects for the continuation of the medium-term uptrend, whereas a decline and consolidation below the MACD line would likely reverse the trend (target: 1.1066). The Marlin oscillator indicates bullish weakness.

On the H4 chart, this weakness is more clearly visible: Marlin is almost fixed in negative territory. We await further developments.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/44vU5ZM

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 7, 2025



On the weekly chart, the price has precisely reached the intersection point of the Fibonacci ray and the upper boundary of the price channel. This occurred on the first bar after the 11th Fibonacci time line — a point which, in most cases, marks the beginning of a trend reversal. The divergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator further reinforces this signal.

Statistically, movements of this type tend to span two ranges of the Fibonacci fan, which in this case could bring the price down to the 1.0179 level — the January low. On the daily chart, the price is consolidating and waiting for a catalyst.

On the H4 chart, the price remains close to the balance line and is attempting a natural approach toward the MACD line (1.1744) to break through its support. A firm move below this level would lead to price consolidation in preparation for a breakout under 1.1692.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4lgfJsl

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 9, 2025



On Tuesday, the euro attempted a downward move but failed to reach support at the MACD line, stopping at the target level of 1.1692. The day closed with a white candlestick, increasing the likelihood of a price rebound toward retesting the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1830.

For a downward continuation, the price must settle below the support reached yesterday and also below the MACD line. However, this would require at least two more days. On Friday, a large batch of data is expected from the UK, meaning that the key developments are likely to unfold next week. Trump has postponed the introduction of tariffs from July 9 to August 1.

On the four-hour chart, a convergence has formed. The likelihood of a rise toward 1.1830 now has more technical justification. The MACD line near the 1.1771-mark acts as interim resistance—if this level is broken, the main target will be automatically unlocked.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/46wK2pW

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 14, 2025



Friday's candlestick for the EUR/USD pair closed bearish, with the price consolidating below the daily MACD line. The objective for today is to secure a close below the 1.1692 level. To achieve this, the daily candle must close below that level. The Marlin oscillator has not yet entered negative territory, but visually it is expected to do so tomorrow. Therefore, today is expected to be calm.

A firm break below 1.1692 opens the path toward the target at 1.1535. A correction is expected from that support level, followed by a move toward the second target at 1.1420. If the price consolidates above Friday's high of 1.1714, it will also move back above the MACD line. This would briefly open an alternative scenario with growth toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1832.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin is entering positive territory, but price action remains below the balance indicator line, which empirically suggests sellers still dominate. The pair will likely remain in a sideways trend today with downside pressure ahead of tomorrow's U.S. inflation data.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/44ZWwVQ

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for July 15, 2025



Following a rebound from the support level at 146.11, the USD/JPY pair has reached the upper line of the wedge pattern on the daily chart and is now targeting the 148.66 resistance level (the May 12 high).

A consolidation above this level would open the path toward 151.30. This scenario is plausible, as Japan is set to hold parliamentary elections (upper house) on July 20, and according to voter polls, the ruling coalition may lose its majority. This raises the risk of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation. Today, U.S. June inflation data will be released. The CPI is expected to rise from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y, which also supports the dollar's strength against the yen.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is consolidating along the zero line. Given the local upward trend, this indicates a strengthening bullish momentum.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3TI7edk

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – July 17: U.S. Inflation Will Only Accelerate

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Wednesday than it had on Tuesday, remaining relatively stable until the evening. There were no major fundamental or macroeconomic events in either the Eurozone or the U.S. throughout the day. We believe that even the U.S. inflation report published on Tuesday can no longer be considered highly significant under current conditions. More precisely, it remains important, but its influence on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is no longer as significant as it once was. The Fed remains firm in its stance: first, it needs to understand how the finalized tariffs will affect key macroeconomic indicators, then it will make a decision on the key interest rate. Over the past three months, Jerome Powell has seemed to do little else besides publicly discuss inflation. The Fed Chair has repeatedly warned that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is bound to rise if import prices increase by 20–30–40%. Especially when it comes to commodities and metals, which cannot be replaced as easily as consumer goods, now that June has arrived, we are indeed witnessing a rise in inflation. The CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7% in June. This may not seem like a dramatic jump, but let us highlight two important points. First, Trump's tariffs began to influence inflation in June because, prior to that, American businesses had stockpiled goods at old prices for several months ahead and had neither raised prices nor placed new foreign orders. Therefore, the rise in June inflation is just the beginning. Second, on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3%, which translates to an annualized rate of 3.6%. Powell and his colleagues suggest that the inflationary shock might be short-lived and that consumer prices may "stabilize" once final tariff rates are set. But what kind of stabilization can we expect when Donald Trump has signed only 3 out of 75 trade agreements, has prepared new tariff hikes for 24 countries starting August 1, and introduced 50% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper? This means that average U.S. import tariffs will rise even further from August 1, and even those will not be final. So, if inflation is already acceler

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/3GE1MFv

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 21, 2025

The euro continues to trade sideways within the range of 1.1535–1.1692, staying between the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue).

The Marlin oscillator is slowly declining in negative territory, indicating a higher likelihood of the price breaking below the support level once the sideways movement ends. In that case, the target would be 1.1420. Upward movement is hindered by two resistance levels: 1.1692 and 1.1750.

On the four-hour chart, the price is falling below the balance and MACD lines. There were false breakouts above the balance line, marked by upper candle wicks, indicating weak or misleading bullish attempts. The Marlin oscillator remains in positive territory. Visually, the price may shift into a downward trajectory if it drops to around 1.1600. The price is expected to move toward the lower boundary of the sideways range.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/45b0US2

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 28: The Ideal, Strong Euro

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair once again traded with low volatility but demonstrated nearly perfect technical behavior. There was little news during the day, with the only noteworthy report being on durable goods orders, which gave mixed signals. On one hand, the actual figure was better than the forecast. On the other hand, the number of orders in June dropped by 9.3%, which is quite significant. Thus, this report cannot be considered positive. Traders themselves were unsure how to interpret the data. After its release, the pair became volatile, but it was the rebound from the critical line — not the macroeconomic data — that held key significance for the dollar. From a technical perspective, the local uptrend remains in place. Last week, the price saw a slight downward correction, but forming a proper trend line or channel is still not possible — the second extremum is missing. The price failed to consolidate below the critical line, so we expect a new wave of euro growth on Monday. On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday produced two nearly perfect trading signals. First, the price bounced precisely from the 1.1750–1.1760 zone, then dropped to the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator, and rebounded from that line with a small deviation (2 points), eventually returning t

COT Report

The latest COT (Commitment of Traders) report is dated July 22. As shown in the chart above, the net position of non-commercial traders was bullish for a long time. Bears barely took control at the end of 2024, but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office as President of the U.S., the dollar has only declined. While we can't say with 100% certainty that this decline will continue, current global developments suggest this scenario is likely. We still see no fundamental factors supporting the euro, but one strong factor remains weighing on the U.S. dollar. The global downtrend remains intact, but what does it matter where the price has moved over the last 16 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may begin to rise — but when will that happen? The position of the red and blue lines in the indicator continues to show a bullish trend. During the last reporting week, long positions held by the "Non-commercial" group increased by 6,200, while shorts increased by 8,900. Therefore, the net position decreased by 1,700 contracts — a negligible change.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4lYAKrJ

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 30, 2025

On Tuesday, the euro declined by 42 pips. The downward movement paused at the 55-day moving average (MA55). Now, the test of the target support at 1.1495 — if the market decides to react to new guidance from the FOMC — is likely to occur via a sharp breakout, as it would need to overcome technical supports. If that happens, the next target would be 1.1380.

The current situation on the daily chart is bearish: the price is holding below the indicator lines, the MACD line has turned downward, and the Marlin oscillator is declining in the negative zone. The only question is: how strong will the FOMC signal be regarding a possible rate cut in September? We believe it won't be particularly strong — possibly just one rate cut before the end of the year, without further changes in December. This is due to inflation, which has started to rise again. Additionally, we observe the Federal Reserve's resistance to market-driven signals for rate cuts, particularly in relation to the yield curve. The FOMC is pursuing a deeper, more strategic agenda.

On the H4 chart, the picture is also fully bearish: the price is declining below downward-sloping indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has made a mild correction — a release of pressure to allow for a smoother continuation of the decline. However, if the price breaks above the MACD line (1.1636), an attack on the daily MACD line at 1.1770 becomes possible. But that would be an alternative scenario. Laurie Bailey

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


Read more: https://ifxpr.com/4mjfbBY