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The numbers don’t’ lie, and they show that we are in the midst of “Crash Season”! What does that mean for you and your portfolio? John and Merlin show some startling market stats, as well as compelling facts on global debt which both present possible investing and trading opportunities going forward!
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New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods unexpectedly saw a notable increase in the month of July, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders climbed by 2.0 percent in July.
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Another waved of selling pummeled the markets today, causing several currencies to rally in to strong supply and demand zones. Online Trading Academy instructor, Alex Perna joins Merlin to talk about his evolution as a trader and share some of his bigger learning lessons. Alex and Merlin look at the weakness in the Dollar and opportunities in other currencies like the Pound, Yen, Canadian dollar, and much more!
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Economic activity in the U.S. increased by much more than previously estimated in the second quarter of 2015, the Commerce Department revealed in a report on Thursday. The Commerce Department said real gross domestic product increased by 3.7 percent in the second quarter.
EURUSD M5: 36 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event:
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Extreme volatility continues to slap the market with trading opportunities. Many are looking for the culprit, and a popular target for the TV pundits has been High Frequency Trading. Roger Best joins Merlin to give a real explanation to HFT’s involvement in the selloff, and why he feels investors have been misled.
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Wow, what a wild ride the markets have been going through. The big question on all traders’ and investors’ minds is whether or not this is the beginning of a bear market. There is no doubt that the current bull market is extremely fragile. An environment of lackluster earnings and sharp reactions to news while waiting for the Fed to cut or not cut rates has been setting everyone on edge.Some time ago I wrote about two moving averages that can be applied to the weekly chart of the S&P 500 to indicate a potential change in trend and confirm the beginning of bull and bear markets. Let’s review the use of those indicators and apply them to the current market condition.The 40 week simple moving average, (40 SMA) is the same as the popular 200 day moving average that is talked about in books and television. When price closes below that average, it is a sign that investors are getting nervous. It is not a signal for a bear market but is a warning. When prices close back above the 40 SMA, this is not the signal for the bull market beginning but does indicate that buyers are entering the markets again.The 80 week simple moving average, (80 SMA) is more critical. The S&P 500 index does not usually close below that average unless there is a bear market looming. Looking back at the stock market’s tech bubble from 1996 to 2000, you can see that prices did not close below that average until the bear market was underway. The 40 SMA moving below the 80 SMA confirmed the bear market. During the bear market, the index used the 40 SMA as a resistance level. In mid-2003 the bulls returned and the index closed above the 80 SMA. The bull market confirmation arrived with the 40 SMA crossing above the 80 SMA later that year.
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The next bull and bear market followed the same pattern. During the housing bubble of 2004 to 2008, the index never closed below the 80 SMA. There were closes below the 40 SMA but they were near the end of small corrections. In January 2008, the index did close below the 80 SMA and the bull-run came to an end.
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Just as it did in 2003, the bear market ended with the S&P 500 index closing above the 80 SMA in late 2009 and the 40 SMA crossing above the 80 SMA shortly after.These indications from the S&P 500 index have been remarkably accurate. There was one false signal in 2011. However, the fact that the index was trading above the moving averages when they crossed it warned of a false signal.
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The week ending August 21st saw the S&P 500 index closing below the 80 SMA for the first time since early 2012. This was not preceded by a close below the 40 SMA as a warning since it was such a sharp drop. The next signal to watch for will be the 40 SMA crossing below the 80 SMA. Since the price drop was so drastic, this may not happen for some time. When and if this happens, watch to see if the index is trading above the moving averages. If it is, it is likely a false signal and we are only experiencing a correction. But if the index is below the averages when they cross, the bear market is in place.It is important to remember that this is a lagging signal and is not as reliable as being able to read price. You need to trade as the institutions do. This is the basis of Online Trading Academy’s core strategy. Come learn how to not just survive, but how to thrive in tumultuous markets by visiting your local Online Trading Academy center today.
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2015-09-03 13:30 GMT | [USD - Trade Balance]
- past data is -45.2B
- forecast data is -43.2B
- actual data is -41.9B according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
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"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in July, down $3.3 billion from $45.2 billion in June, revised. July exports were $188.5 billion, $0.8 billion more than June exports. July imports were $230.4 billion, $2.5 billion less than June imports."
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EURUSD M5: 166 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:
As the markets continue with significant gyrations, many are wondering if what it will take to make new highs in the market. Former floor trader, Craig Weil, joins Merlin to offer his perspective on where we are headed based off of market seasonality and emotion.
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While the Labor Department released a report on Friday showing much weaker than expected U.S. job growth in the month of August, the unemployment rate still fell to a new seven-year low. The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment climbed by 173,000 jobs in August.
EURUSD M5: 100 pips ranging price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:
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John O'Donnell Sits in for Merlin. He discusses the global credit purge cycle within the Online Trading Academy core strategy. Learn how to prosper in the months and years ahead in the global capital markets deflationary trends.
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Many traders struggle to find their way, but don’t get the help they need to make it to the promised land. Joann Farley joins Merlin to talk about many of the amazing resources available to traders looking for help, and solutions to what ails them. She points out specific areas in the Mastermind and Clubhouse programs where struggling traders can hone the fundamental skills needed to move up the rungs of professional trading.
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Global food prices declined the most in nearly seven years during August, thanks to ample supplies, falling energy prices and worries over China's economic slowdown, the Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report released on Thursday.
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In January, Mike McMahon made some lofty forecasts for the S&P500, and the market has sold off a bit. On this show, he makes a slight revision, but still declares his market bullishness with a revised forecast. The duo also take a look at the Aussie dollar, Euro Pound, Oil and Exxon Mobile.
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Many will never even set foot on the floor of a real trading floor! Wayne Citron has spent over 40 years on them! From the Midwest Exchange, Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, he has traded them all! Wayne shares with Merlin how he became a trader on the floor and some of the major learning lessons he faced along the way. Merlin and Wayne also take a look at Natural Gas, S&P 500 and the all important fed announcement coming out tomorrow!
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Master trader, Irfan Patel joins Merlin in studio to talk about the current forex market, and trading opportunities. Irfan answers several listener questions about using technical indicators when he trades, as well as analysis of the Euro, and US dollar setups.
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Many traders rush into trading, taking on far more risk than needed, and often blowing their account because they simply didn’t know the asset class they were trading. Matt Gildea joins Merlin live on set to talk about some problems that listeners sent in regarding options trading. Matt outlines safer ways to achieve trading goals using options.
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Earlier this week, Irfan Patel showed how he likes to incorporate Moving averages into his trading. Apparently this sparked many others to send in questions about them! Merlin adds his personal thoughts and addresses more questions on moving averages, from a long term investing perspective.
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John O’Donnell joins Merlin Rothfeld in studio to talk about major market themes. John takes a look at the automotive industry which has been beaten up recently. He points out several factors which may make him a buyer at some upcoming demand levels. The duo also looks at the recent moves by Janet Yellen for additional market moves, and how currencies might be affected.
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Is there a way to keep more of the money that you earn from working and trading? Absolutely! Michael Atias of OTA Tax Pro’s joins Merlin to talk about how everyone can benefit from having a custom tax strategy. Whether you are a trader or not, there are many ways to keep more of what you make, and ways to write off expenses for your day to day activities.
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Attachment 16140
Employment in the U.S. increased by much less than anticipated in the month of September, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday. The report said non-farm payroll employment rose by 142,000 jobs in September.
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Paul Buzby, Senior Consultant at RCW financial joins Merlin Rothfeld for a look at why he not only thinks the fed should raise rates, but why it will be a good thing for America! The duo also look at a variety of alternative investment vehicles for protection from volatile markets.
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With exports falling and imports rising, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing that the U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in the month of August.
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While some currencies have not had a great sense of direction recently, Master Trader Tim Pesut talks about other areas he looks to for trading opportunities. Merlin and Tim differ on their outlook for oil going forward, which will ultimately find one of them right! Tim also offers some insights into the Canadian and Australian Dollars.
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Merlin talks to Online Trading Academy instructor Rahul Ghose who is teaching a trading class in Mumbai India. Rahul talks about learning lessons on his rise to becoming a professional trader, and how he learned these major lessons. He also gives some insight into the impact of a slowing Chinese economy, and the Nifty index.
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Trader Larry Jacobson joins Merlin to talk about his role with Online Trading Academy, developing and enhancing resources to help traders overcome obstacles and be part of a community. The duo talk a little about trading psychology before diving into chart analysis of Gold and the New Zealand Dollar.
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After reporting an unexpected contraction in regional manufacturing in the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a report on Thursday showing that manufacturing conditions continued to weaken in October.
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In a story reminiscent of Raiders of the Lost Ark, Dr. Richard Ebeling joins Merlin and John to share his story of finding the lost works of Ludwig Von Mises in KGB vaults in Russia. The trio talk about some of the impacts of monetary policy and how Mises viewed things like inflation, central banks, and negative interest rates!
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Currency trader Sunil Mangwani joins Merlin to talk about his years of trading experience and the 2 fundamental keys that are found in all successful traders. The duo later focus on listener questions ranging from the Aussie, Loony and the US Dollar.
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Many listeners sent in comments about their struggle with trend or countertrend trading. Michael Young and Merlin Rothfeld offer their takes on how they trade both market conditions, and what others should be on the lookout for! Michael also offers some insights into the Pound as well as the S&P 500 futures.
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Sweden's central bank held its key interest rate unchanged and boosted its asset purchases on Wednesday, making its policy more expansionary as it prepares for a possible December expansion of the ECB's stimulus. The Riksbank decided to extend its government bond purchasing programme by an additional SEK 65 billion. Purchases will total SEK 200 billion by the end of June 2016.
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For the past few days, Online Trading Academy has been hosting its annual international conference in Irvine California. This year, one of the highlights has been the amazing new Real Estate products and services! Master instructor, Diana Hill joins Merlin to talk about these new tools and why they have historically been available only to large financial firms! Diana also talks about different ways to become involved in real estate which call for very little capital investment.
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Merlin welcomes Chief Operating Officer of Online Trading Academy Gene Longobardi. The duo discuss the progression of trader and investing education over the past 18 years, highlighting the steps Online Trading Academy has taken to create the best possible learning experience for students. This includes content, community and support systems to help students achieve their financial and personal goals.
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After reporting a sharp drop in new orders for U.S. manufactured goods in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing that factory orders saw further downside in the month of September.
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The director of Student Support at Online Trading Academy joins Merlin in studio to talk about his perspective on this rallying market. Larry also answers some listener questions about finding trading opportunities, patience, the Euro and much more!
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With several listeners asking about daytrading options, veteran options trader Steve Moses joins Merlin to help break this trading technique down. Steve and Merlin point out some of the major challenges to consider when trading options for the short term. They also look at another listener question pertaining to stocks at all time highs, and techniques for using covered calls.
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Job growth in the U.S. showed a substantial reacceleration in the month of October, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday.
Attachment 16481
2014-11-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
- past data is 142K
- forecast data is 181K
- actual data is 271K according to the latest press release
Attachment 16482
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Merlin and Tillie take a look at how to invest capital now, with the intent of the continued bullish market trend. Tillie also talks about some of the strategies they implement in the ProActive Investor class at Online Trading Academy. Merlin also offers some helpful advice for traders who hit the dreaded “Downward Spiral”.
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Attachment 16583
The unemployment rate in Australia fell to a seasonally adjusted 5.9 percent in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
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Merlin welcomes currency trader Stephen Hanahoe to the Power Trading Radio studio to talk about the most current moves in the FX markets. The duo answer listener questions about the Euro, Aussie, Cross Pairs, Carry Trades, and much more!
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Merlin welcomes one of the Original Online Trading Academy instructors, Mike McMahon to the show to talk about the award with his name on it! Mike talks about the standards needed to be a top tier instructor, and win the award. Later, the duo talks about commodities and the current trends they are experiencing. This may present some great trading opportunities for you!!
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