Printable View
Traditional investment advisors point investors to the bond market to generate income, yet that is a dangerous undertaking in these markets. Master trader, Darek Zelek joins Merlin for a look at how he uses options to grow his portfolios and generate the desired rate of return he is looking for. The duo look at several examples of options trades on assets like Oil and Gold.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector grew faster than anticipated in the month of May, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday. The ISM said its purchasing managers index climbed to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April.
EURUSD M5: 71 pips price movement by USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI news event :
Attachment 13685
More...
Greece's manufacturing sector contracted for the ninth consecutive month in May, but at a slower pace, as declines in output and new orders were less severe, survey figures from Markit Economics showed Tuesday.
More...
2015-06-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
- past data is -51.4B
- forecast data is -43.9B
- actual data is -40.9B according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
==========
"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.9 billion in April, down $9.7 billion from $50.6 billion in March, revised. April exports were $189.9 billion, $1.9 billion more than March exports. April imports were $230.8 billion, $7.8 billion less than March imports."
"The April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $9.3 billion to $60.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $19.8 billion."
==========
EURUSD M5: 44 pips range price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:
Attachment 13754
XAUUSD M5: 362 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:
Attachment 13755
The European Central Bank's asset purchases are proceeding as planned and will continue until there is a sustained shift in the inflation path, the ECB President Mario Draghi said Wednesday. He also reaffirmed the bank's view that Greece should remain in the euro area, as crucial talks between the country's government and creditors are due to take place in Brussels later in the day.
More...
Merlin welcomes Scott Greer, in a show packed with charts and analysis. The duo covers the US Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, Aussie and much more! Scott also offers up a trade set-up he is watching, and may trigger any moment!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
Global food commodity prices dropped to their lowest levels in nearly six years, driven by a significant fall in cereal prices in the backdrop of a positive harvest outlook for the year, the Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.
More...
Attachment 13799
Goldman Sachs:
- The employment components of various manufacturing surveys have been weak (Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, Chicago PMI & the ISM services report)
- Mining sector job losses may persist and continue to be a drag
- GS say that the consensus forecast has overestimated jobs growth in May for the last few years, by 56,000 on average over the previous 5 years
- Warm weather likely inflated the jobs number in April, but this may have taken from jobs gains in May
Barclays:
- Expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 225k
- Private payrolls to increase by 220k
- Government payrolls to grow by 5k
- They note initial and continuing claims both fell sharply in May from April
Deutsche Bank:
- Say that jobless claims are hovering near a 15-year low
- The growth rate of employee tax withholding receipts has meaningfully increased from the April to May employment survey periods (up about 5.6% in May compared to less than 4% in April)
RBS:
- Expect average hourly earnings growth to rise from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y
- Which would equal the largest y/y increase since 2009
- Expect unemployment rate steady at 5.4%
- Stronger-than-expected employment should keep the Fed on pace to hike the Fed Funds rate in September, and pulling forward of expectations could support the USD. A stronger USD and pulled-forward rate hike expectations could pressure commodity prices and weigh on commodity exporter currencies
the source
2015-06-05 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
- past data is 223K
- forecast data is 222K
- actual data is 280K according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
==========
"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline."
==========
EURUSD M5: 179 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :
Attachment 13809
USDJPY M5: 102 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :
Attachment 13810
XAUUSD M5: 893 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :
Attachment 13811
Former CME floor trader, Michael Young joins Merlin to discuss how he is trading these sideways markets and finding great trading opportunities.
Mr. Young takes a look at Natural Gas, and walks listeners through how he is trading it, and what his strategies are going forward. The duo stress the importance of knowing the instruments you are trading, and having a plan at all times!!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
In the Professional Trader courses at Online Trading Academy, we discuss how to properly identify the strongest supply and demand zones. One of the criteria for our entry into a trade is that the supply or demand zone we are planning to enter on should be “fresh.”
This means that it should not have been used before. The more times a zone has been used for a bounce the weaker it becomes, and that lowers our probability for success when trading it.
A common question that is asked in class when this topic is covered is, “How far back should I look to see that the level is fresh?” This is indeed a good question. If you look back on most charts you will discover that most levels have been used many times in the past but seem to resurface again as a new supply or demand level.I refer back to the psychology of why these levels work. Sure it is demand because buyers are more aggressive and will raise their bid to get the limited amount of supply at the level. Supply is caused by the aggressive sellers dropping their offering prices to offload shares to a lack of demand; but the true motivation for traders and investors to buy or sell at a level is either pain or pleasure.
People will take action at a particular price level if they had experienced the pleasure of gaining profits there before or expect to since they missed out on a previous opportunity. Or they will be motivated to act to avoid the pain they had felt by not taking action the previous time the price reached a level.
Think about how you felt when you saw the price drop from your purchase price. You may have thought, “Please just go back to break even!!!!” Once prices did reach that level you were either motivated by fear to exit, or greed (potential for pleasure) to hold on. Which decision was right was dependent on the trend and outcome of the trade.Now to answer the question on how far we must look back to verify the level is fresh. We look back until we see that no one cared about that level. I will look back until price has traded through that level in both upward and downward directions.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...0609100446.jpg
This would be the same for a supply level as well. If you see that the level has been used, then it is not fresh and it shouldn’t be used for trading.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...0609100508.jpg
So, look back to make sure that the level you are trading on is fresh so that you have the best opportunity to profit in the markets.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...0609100538.jpg
Trading levels that are not fresh may work from time to time. However, in order to be successful in trading or investing in the financial markets we need to be consistently right more than just time to time. By being selective with your entries and exits you are more likely to make money. That involves being disciplined and only taking trades when the entry is not only at a fresh level but one of high quality. To learn more about finding high quality levels, come visit your local Online Trading Academy office today
More...
Attachment 14037
The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 6.0 percent in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
More...
On a day when the markets rocketed to the upside, Merlin welcomes Steve Moses to help viewers understand the trading potential for Options. Steve’s preferred options strategy is spread trading, which allow him to profit when securities go sideways. The duo talk about this, and the other ways to use options to capitalize on market moves as well as how to generate income.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
The Ambassador of Opportunity, John O’Donnell joins Merlin Rothfeld for an interesting look at the criteria that normally appears in the markets during a topping period, as well as data which occurs during a bottoming market. John also looks at some of the major headwinds for investors and markets going forward.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
Tillie joins Merlin for a show filled with listener questions! Topics range from how to adapt to current market conditions, to using options in sideways markets. Tillie offers her insights into the stocks OMG, TBT, TLT, SBUX, and how she dealt with losses and trade plans early on in her trading career.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
New Zealand's gross domestic product gained just 2.6 percent on year in the first quarter of 2015, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday.
More...
Merlin welcomes Online Trading Academy instructor Vishal Subandh to the show for an update on what is happening in the Indian Markets. Vishal shares with viewers several trade setups for the Nifty, Bank Nifty and the USDINR. The topic also looks at other strong & weak sectors in India as well as a great look at market correlation.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
A decent down day on Friday couldn’t derail the strong weekly results for the markets! John O’Donnell joins Merlin for a look at interest rates, the Fed, inflation, gold and other factors influencing current market dynamics.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
Triple digit moves in the Dow have become much more frequent recently, and interesting technical patterns have emerged as well. Master trader, Steve Bobbitt joins Merlin for a look at these patterns, offering his insights as to what they are signaling for the market going forward. The duo talk about Oil, Syria, S&P, Canadian Dollar and much more!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
Sideways markets have not been the kindest to long term investors for the past few months! Russ Allen joins Merlin to talk about how investors might want to position themselves for a potential market drop. This also includes a listener question about protecting assets in a 401k.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
With the value of exports falling by much more than the value of imports, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing that the U.S. trade deficit widened in the month of May. The report said the trade deficit widened to $41.9 billion in May from a revised $40.7 billion in April.
More...
Spending much of his time working with students in the XLT environment, Brandon Tristan sees many of the challenges facing traders first hand. Having overcome these obstacles first hand, Brandon talks about the major issues as well as how to overcome them. Merlin and Brandon then look at a variety of currency pairs per listeners request!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
More...
Merlin and John break down the weeks biggest topics including the huge selloff in the Chinese exchanges, the ongoing Greek debt restructuring saga, the issues with the New York Stock Exchange and much more!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
After reporting a sharp jump in U.S. retail sales in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing that sales unexpectedly pulled back in the month of June. The report said retail sales fell by 0.3 percent in June.
EURUSD M5: 43 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event:
more...
With no guest on the show, Merlin answers many listener questions that were Power Blasted into the studio! With obvious focus on the Greek situation, Merlin starts off by answering a question about how to trade that volatile situation. Later he looks at the Canadian dollar, British Pound New Zealand pair, the Yen, and several other currencies.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
Last month, Michael Young was on Power Trading Radio talking about his trade setup on Natural Gas, which turned out to be a fantastic trade! This time, the former CME floor trader shares his thoughts on a variety of assets including Gold, Oil, the US Dollar, Natural Gas, Intel and trading earnings! It’s a show full of great setups and lessons. Tune in and gain some great insights into the markets with this dynamic duo!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
On the heels of the Chinese government intervening to stabilize their stock market, international markets rallied! This also caused sharp moves in currencies as well as commodities. Master trader, Tim Pesut joins Merlin for a look at how he is trading these developments as well as offer his insights into the Australian Dollar, Gold, Copper and Much more!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
Economic activity in the U.S. increased by less than expected in the second quarter, the Commerce Department revealed in a report on Thursday, although the report also showed a notable upward revision to the data for the first quarter.
more...
Inflation and unemployment figures from euro area are due on Friday headlining a busy day for the European economic news.
more...
Money manager, Jim Puplava joins Merlin and John for a look at the current commodities space. The discussion revolves around the significant downside pressure on Gold, oil, copper, silver and other commodities, and the potentially incredible buying opportunity quickly approaching!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
The unemployment rate in New Zealand ticked up to 5.9 percent in the second quarter of 2015, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.
NZDUSD M5: 16 pips price movement by NZD - Employment Change news event :
more...
DailyFX currency strategist, Ilya Spivak joins Merlin for a look at the major currency market stories and live listener questions. The duo begin with the Aussie Dollar which had an explosive move up this morning, but will it last? Later they look at the Swiss Franc, British Pound, Euro and much more!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
Job growth in the U.S. slowed for the second consecutive month in July, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday, although the report still showed a notable increase in employment. The report said non-farm payroll employment rose by 215,000 jobs in July.
EURUSD M5: 90 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :
more...
China stirred up the global currency war today with a devaluation of their currency, which could be the first of many. Merlin welcomes Tim Pesut to the show to talk about the ramifications of China’s action and how it may create trading opportunities going forward. The duo also look at several listener questions regarding the EURJPY cross pair and specific trade setups.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
John and Merlin break down the week’s biggest news headlines from the currency devaluation from China, to the sale of coal mines by Goldman Sachs. They also take a look at the decision by the EU to bail out Greece once again. How long will it last? Finally, commodities continue to be crushed providing potential buying opportunities for those ok with more Risk!
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
Trader/Investor Paul Orme is currently at the brand new Online Trading Academy facility in Toronto teaching a ProActive investing class. He joins Merlin via phone to talk about some of the major pitfalls individuals nearing retirement should take into consideration. The duo also talk about fees and income generation methodologies. Paul also shares how he is currently using options to generate income for his long term accounts.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
House price inflation in the United Kingdom accelerated marginally in June, after remaining stable in the previous month, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday.
more...
Whenever I return from a road trip my neighbor’s German Shepherd always chases after my motorcycle. He is a great dog and very friendly and is allowed to roam the neighborhood freely. It struck me that he is a lot like a novice trader chasing prices in the markets.
If I am driving slowly the dog will catch me and I can reach out and pet him.
Of course, I have to be careful that he doesn’t run in front of the bike and cause me to crash. Similarly, novices can catch prices easily when they are in a slow moving trend; but they must be careful because they may make profits, but only until too many of them are on board and the stock price collapses.
When I drive past the dog at a slightly higher speed he cannot catch me but will still run after me. Once he was running too fast and when I stopped to turn into my driveway he ran into the back of the bike. Unfortunately, I have seen way too many traders chase a fast moving trend, just to catch it at the top or bottom of that trend. This is financially disastrous.You could also equate price chasing to climbing a flagpole. If one person were to climb to the top of that pole it would hold their weight. This is the professional trader who buys near or at the beginning of the trend. As more and more people climbed up to the top of that same pole, eventually it would bend and break from the added weight. Prices are similar. Stock prices rise because of demand. The demand being greater than the supply causes buyers to outbid each other and climb the pole. At some point, the buyers have exhausted themselves and everyone who wanted to buy has already done so or is prevented from buying due to the high cost.
Prices start to fall as fear takes hold. Most investors and traders will start to panic when the price starts moving against them or their stops will be triggered. If there was a lot of buying pressure and large green candles going into the supply level, there will be few buyers to stop the collapse and catch the supply being dumped onto the markets from stop orders being triggered.
Compare this with a gradual climb that features smaller green candles and some small pullbacks to shake out weak traders. As prices fall away from a supply level in this scenario, they will be met with less stop orders and more buying pressure as the demand was not exhausted on the way up.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...0818092646.jpg
Arrival to demand zones are also important. If you arrive at the demand with large red candles signaling panic and fear, you are likely to have a bigger and better bounce. The large red candles signal that everyone who wanted to sell has now exited the stock. When buyers step in they must raise their bids quickly to attract a seller who may still be around.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...0818092753.jpg
This is a part of Online Trading Academy’s Odds Enhancers. In order to be successful in your trading and investing you need to use strategies and tools that are proven and profitable. To learn more about these Odds Enhancers and the Core Strategy be sure to visit your local Online Trading Academy Center and enroll for one of our trading courses. Until next time, trade safe and trade well!
More...
London trading veteran, Irfan Patel, calls in to join Merlin to talk about the “doldrums” of currency trading in the summer months. Irfan answers many listener questions on a wide range of currencies including the Pound, Kiwi, Canadian & US Dollar. Some of these are displaying great trading opportunities going forward.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
Markets took a shot in the jaw on Thursday, leading many to jump to the conclusion that the crash is about to begin. Larry Jacobson joins Merlin to put it in perspective and offer solutions if the market does continue to the downside. He also looks at some options tactics that will help traders and investors ride out any market.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1105145132.jpg
more...
