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Employment in the U.S. rose by much less than expected in the month of March, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday.

The report said non-farm payroll employment rose by 126,000 jobs in March following a downwardly revised increase of 264,000 jobs in February.

Economists had expected employment to increase by about 245,000 jobs compared to the addition of 295,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate held at a six-year low of 5.5 percent in March, unchanged from February and in line with economist estimates.

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Long time banking professor and Austrian economist, Patrick Barron joins Merlin Rothfeld and John O’Donnell for a look at the deterioration situation going on in Europe. Professor Barron sees some radical changes facing the EU, some which he is all but guaranteeing will happen over time! What does this mean for your long term holdings? Tune in and find out.

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On a candlestick chart you have a candle for every period - for example, on a five minute chart you will have a candle every five minutes whether the price moved or not. In a P&F chart, a new notation is made only when price moves by a certain amount. If there is no trading or if price does not move enough, no notation is made.

To create the trading chart, you will use an “X” to note when prices rise by a certain amount and an “O” when they decline by an amount. You only put X’s or O’s in a column.

If you need O’s due to a reversal in price, you would start a new column. You do not put X’s and O’s in the same column.

You must first decide the minimum amount of movement to note. This is referred to as the box size. You can set the box size for anything you would like but remember, the smaller the size the more sensitive the chart will be.

You also need to decide the reversal setting. This will be the multiple of the box size that would create a reversal signal.

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The larger reversal size will filter out many small corrections that might have otherwise scared traders out of positions.

You can take a simple buy signal when a column of X’s rises above the previous column of X’s. You could stay long until a sell signal has been generated. The simple sell signal comes when a column of O’s breaks below a previous column of O’s.

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When we trade, we should know at least three things about the position before we take it. We need to know our entry, the stop, and the target we hope to achieve. A point and figure chart can offer all of that to us. We can place our stops for longs just under the last column of O’s. As long as there is no reversal that breaks that low, we stay in the trade.

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If we are using a larger reversal size, 1×3, 20×3 or so, we can still use a horizontal projection. In this case, we would multiply the horizontal box count by the box size and the reversal size to determine the projection length.

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Federal Reserve officials are divided over when to begin raising interest rates, according to the minutes of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March.

USDCAD M5: 47 pips price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event :

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EURUSD M5: 58 pips price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event :

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Spurred by a listener question about how to short the S&P 500, Merlin Rothfeld and Josip Causic break down the various methods to achieve the same goal. The duo breaks down the pros and cons of 4 different approaches to making money should the markets drop. They also talk about current market conditions and volatility.

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The residential market is heating up, leading to some bidding wars in various parts of the country. This has led many to inquire about selling their homes too! Is it the right choice? Tune in and listen to real estate expert, Diana Hill offer her thoughts on inventories, interest rates, and market data.

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The World Bank forecast economic growth in developing countries in East Asia and Pacific to ease this year despite getting the benefits of weak oil prices and the continued recovery in developed economies. In the East Asia Pacific Economic Update released Monday, the Washington-based lender said developing East Asia will grow 6.7 percent each in 2015 and 2016.

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Financial illiteracy is a major factor in America’s significant shortfall with retirement savings and much more. John and Merlin talk about how this illiteracy is spreading, and what we should do to help improve financial understanding. The duo also take a look at paper profits most investors hold, and how they should protect those gains in the face of a potential market correction.

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Singapore's gross domestic product gained 2.1 percent on year in the first quarter of 2015, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in Tuesday's preliminary reading.

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In my first article on Point and Figure (P&F) charting, I discussed the basics of creating that style of chart. In this article, I will build upon that knowledge and show more advanced methods for identifying patterns and projecting price movement. I want to mention that I tend to use this method of charting for longer term swing or position trades rather than intraday. Remember that time is not a factor while attempting to achieve targets in P&F and you will likely hold positions for some time.Patterns in P&F charts are a bit different than what you may be used to in candlestick charting. A triple top formation is not necessarily a reversal formation, it could be a continuation. It will still offer a trading opportunity however. Look at the following examples of both the bullish and bearish triple formation.

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Even patterns such as triangles are visible and can be traded on P&F charts. They will work in much the same manner as they would on candlestick charts.

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I previously discussed the use of horizontal price projections. Many traders choose a different price projection method. If you are not using a 1 box reversal chart and have instead selected a three box, (this refers to how much price would have to reverse for you to start a new column, $10×3 means price would have reversed a minimum of $30), you can try the vertical price projection method. I have found this style to be more accurate in projecting targets.
The vertical price projection can only be made under certain circumstances. They are:

1st move off a bottom (1st row of X’s)1st move down from top (1st row of O’s)2nd move from top or bottom

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Once you have counted the correct column, you can multiply that count by the per box value and then multiply that number by the size for reversal. Your result should then either be added to the price bottom or subtracted from the price top to give you the price projection.

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Now that we know the basics and what to look for, let’s examine a few P&F charts to see this technique in action. I have a chart of the S&P 500 Index 10×3 point and figure format. The 10 means I need a minimum of a 10 point move between closing prices to make a new box of X’s or O’s. I must also have a minimum of 30 points (10×3), to start a new column for a reversal. The numbers and letters refer to the months (1-9 are Jan. to Sept., A-C are Oct. to Dec.)

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I can do the same with charts of individual stocks. I would simply adjust the box size on the chart for stocks or the indexes due to their higher or lower prices.

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If you are looking for smaller duration trades, you can lessen the box size and also the closing periods. I had been using the daily closes on the previous charts. Depending on the trading software that you use, you can set box size smaller. This makes the chart more sensitive and allows you to see intraday activity. You can set the chart’s period to five minutes. If the close from a five minute period would cause a change in the chart, it is noted instead of waiting for the daily close.

By adjusting the box size and even what closing price the box will use, you can create all types of interesting charts to follow trends in the intraday or even multi decade trend following charts. The possibilities are limitless. Next week we will examine more strategies on point and figure charts and how to use them in conjunction with our core strategy of supply and demand.



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Global growth will be driven this year by a rebound in advanced economies that benefit from lower oil prices, while the economic situation will remain sluggish in the emerging market and developing economies, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on Tuesday.

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In its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, the IMF retained the world growth forecast for this year at 3.5 percent. The lender raised the growth forecast for next year to 3.8 percent from the 3.7 percent predicted in an interim report in January.

The Washington-based IMF acknowledged the growing divergence in growth prospects across the world, calling them 'uneven'. Growth is projected to strengthen in advanced economies this year relative to 2014 but weaken in emerging market and developing economies.

"A number of complex forces are shaping the prospects around the world," IMF Economic Counselor and Director of Research Olivier Blanchard said.

He added, "Legacies of both the financial and the euro area crises—weak banks and high levels of public, corporate, and household debt—are still weighing on spending and growth in some countries. Low growth in turn makes deleveraging a slow process."

Growth in the advanced economies was forecast to rise to 2.4 percent from 1.8 percent last year, unchanged from January. The growth rate was seen remaining unchanged in 2016.

However, the U.S. economic growth forecast for this year was lowered to 3.1 percent from 3.6 percent. The projection for next year was also lowered to 3.1 percent from 3.3 percent.

Domestic demand in the U.S. is expected to gain support from lower oil prices, more moderate fiscal adjustment, and continued support from an accommodative monetary policy stance, despite the projected gradual rise in interest rates and some drag on net exports from recent dollar appreciation, the IMF said.

The lender also euro area growth is showing 'signs of picking up,', supported by lower oil prices, low interest rates, and a weaker euro. The growth forecast for the Eurozone for this year was raised to 1.5 percent from 1.2 percent. The projection for next year was also upped to 1.6 percent from 1.4 percent.

Growth forecasts for the big four Eurozone economies - Germany, France, Italy and Spain - were also raised.

Outside of the euro area, the growth projection for U.K. for this year was retained at 2.7 percent, but the forecast for next year was cut to 2.3 percent.

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The European Central Bank's massive asset purchase programme is proceeding smoothly and is having an impact on economic activity, which is expected to gradually strengthen in the months ahead, the bank's chief Mario Draghi said Wednesday. "There is clear evidence that the monetary policy measures we have put in place are effective," he said.

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The Road Warrior, Brandon Wendell joins Merlin for a look at his recent classes, travels, and more importantly. Trading! Merlin and Brandon answer several questions that relating to the Euro and specific trade setups on the Euro, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar. Brandon also talks about his All Asset Class Mastery XLT as well.

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Merlin welcomes trader & educator, Vishal Subandh to the show to discuss how the Indian markets have been fairing over the past few months. The duo talk about the preferred trading vehicles, and the subtle differences between the US and India. Vishal also offers his insights into the direction of the Nifty index, Crude Oil, US dollar and much more.

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4 days worth of market gains erased with one single day! What caused it? Europe? China? Earnings? John O’Donnell joins Merlin Rothfeld for a look at how they perceived this week’s trading opportunities. The duo looks at Gold, equity markets, the new rule changes in China, and the serious issues facing retirees in America!

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The European Central Bank is exploring measures to reduce the Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks, reports said Tuesday, citing people with knowledge of the discussions. ECB Staff have suggested an increase in the haircuts banks take on the collateral they offer for emergency funding from the Bank of Greece, both Bloomberg and CNBC said.

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Markets surged on good earnings and easing by China. Will the momentum continue? Scott McCormick joins Merlin for a look at what Bonds, Equities, Commodities & Currencies have to say about our markets. The duo looks at earnings season and answer some questions about how to trade earnings and news related events.

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Nearly every seasoned trader will attest to trading being predominantly rooted in Psychology. Yet most traders do not take the time to learn how to improve themselves, Dr. Woody Johnson joins Merlin Rothfeld for a look at the formula for success, not just in trading, but in life. The duo also answer several listener question about trading problems.

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Historic levels for the Nasdaq usher in a wave of skepticism amongst the hosts of Power Trading radio! Merlin and John offer their perspectives on what it means to have the market at these levels and what traders should be looking at. Listeners also ask questions on zero interest rates, market crashes, and inverse market Leaps.

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Many students email me wanting to know how to tell if a supply or demand zone is likely to hold or break. Understanding this is critical for trading, for if we buy or sell at the wrong time we give up the opportunity to make greater profits or worse, we lose money.http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...0428145425.jpg
If you do not see that occurring you would have a lower probability of success in selling at those levels.



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New Zealand had a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$631 million in March, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.

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Merlin sits down with the Architect of Online Trading Academy’s new Financial matters program. They discuss aspects of everyone’s life which are impacted by money related decisions, and offer insights on how to make better, more informed decisions. Thus preserving capital, decreasing risk, and achieving financial goals.

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Economic data and the fed proved to be the major market movers on Wednesday, yet special guest Bill Henner spotted something different. With 25 years of floor trading experience in Chicago, Mr. Henner is no stranger to market patterns. The duo discuss the current market condition as well as what Bill has gleaned from the charts.

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Armed with some alarming statistics, Larry Jacobson joins Merlin for a look at the root of “Financial Obesity” in America. The duo looks at the how most people learn personal fiancé incorrectly and how they can change their situation with simple steps.

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15 years worth of stimulus to get our economy back on track, and all that we have is equity markets at all time highs. Did the stimulus go to the economy or to banks and the stock market?!? Tune in to hear John and Merlin debate the effectiveness of years of wasted money, and what road blocks lie just ahead.

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Economic activity in the U.S. service sector unexpectedly grew at a faster pace in the month of April, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday.

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Market guru, Bill Gross, forecasts the next 35 years as lacking big market gains, and the end of a super cycle in the market. Master trader, Scott McCormick joins Merlin to see if it is truly a super cycle, and what impact that might have on traders going forward. The duo also talk about current market levels and trends.

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Indexes were back to their negative ways today, shedding a couple days worth of gains. Greece is back in the spotlight, and bad economic data weigh on the US Markets. Master trader, Tim Pesut joins Merlin for a look at what he sees happening in the FX markets, and offer traders insight into his preferred trading pairs.

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The European Central Bank's Governing Council will meet on Wednesday to discuss whether to raise the collateral requirements for the emergency loans it gives to the Bank of Greece. The 25-member council, led by ECB President Mario Draghi, is set to meet in Frankfurt to decide whether to tighten the rules for the Emergency Liquidity Assistance, or ELA, for Greece.

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Traveling around the US, living the life of a trader, Joann Farley joins Merlin to talk about her daily role with Online Trading Academy helping people around the world achieve their financial dreams. The duo covers the XLT program, ProPicks and other resources available to traders which will help them stay focused and disciplined. Joann also answers some listener questions live on air.

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Greece's current account deficit in March increased from a year ago, figures from the Bank of Greece showed Friday.

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It took 5 years to happen, but we finally get Gina Monetti on the show! Gina is instrumental in student support, XLT, Mastermind, Clubhouse, ProPicks and much more at Online Trading Academy! Gina talks about her role and how it all revolves around student success. Later, Gina talks about her trading style and where she sees the market headed.

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Consumer prices in the U.S. rose in line with economist estimates in the month of April, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday, although the report also showed a bigger than expected increase in core prices.

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Greece's government on Monday ruled out imposing controls over capital flows over the upcoming long weekend, after an opposition lawmaker suggested the move if the country fails to strike a deal with its creditors soon.

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Singapore's gross domestic product gained 2.6 percent on year in the first quarter of 2015, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in Tuesday's revision.

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Choosing which stock to trade is always a challenge.

There are many screeners available either free or for a small subscription fee. While they can be helpful, another simple technique can be even better in narrowing your selection process and may even offer insight as to when the markets may start to turn themselves.

Markets go through a rotation that is common throughout the world. All modern capitalistic economies work in similar manners and I have applied this analysis with great success to the US, Singapore, European, UK, and Indian equity markets. Let’s face it – we are all people, driven by the same forces of fear and greed when playing in the markets.

These emotions make our investing and trading very predictable.The stock market itself can be a leading indicator for the economy as investors place their money into “safe” sectors that they believe will outperform giving the future outlook of the economy. If you look at the chart below, you can see how the market cycle in red tends to lead the economic cycle in green by approximately three months. This makes sense when you think of how the markets turned downward in October 2007, well before the announcement that the United States and the rest of the world had entered into the 2008 recession.

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Choosing which stock to trade is always a challenge. There are many screeners available either free or for a small subscription fee. While they can be helpful, another simple technique can be even better in narrowing your selection process and may even offer insight as to when the markets may start to turn themselves.Markets go through a rotation that is common throughout the world. All modern capitalistic economies work in similar manners and I have applied this analysis with great success to the US, Singapore, European, UK, and Indian equity markets. Let’s face it – we are all people, driven by the same forces of fear and greed when playing in the markets. These emotions make our investing and trading very predictable.

The stock market itself can be a leading indicator for the economy as investors place their money into “safe” sectors that they believe will outperform giving the future outlook of the economy. If you look at the chart below, you can see how the market cycle in red tends to lead the economic cycle in green by approximately three months. This makes sense when you think of how the markets turned downward in October 2007, well before the announcement that the United States and the rest of the world had entered into the 2008
recession.

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When there is danger on the horizon for the economy and markets, money will start to flow into sectors viewed as “safe havens.” Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Services and Utilities are examples of those safe investmenthaven sectors. The staples and healthcare are things we as a society still spend money on even if the economy starts to slump. Brokers advise their clients to protect their capital and you will see those sectors hold steady or even start to rise when danger appears or economic slowdown is imminent.

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The utility sector is one that benefits in two ways from a bear market. First, this sector tends to pay out larger dividends than stocks in other sectors, so those seeking dividend yield are smart to invest here. Secondly, utility companies are usually operating on high debt having issued bonds to finance operations. If the economy is slumping, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates as a move to stimulate it. The lower interest rate allows the utility company to re-issue new bonds at lower rates to pay off older, higher rate debt. This frees up money for them and increases profitability.The last sector, Financials, also benefits from lower interest rates. In a lower interest rate environment, money can be borrowed for expanding business operations and consumer purchases to stimulate the economy. When businesses and investors think the end of the recession or slowdown is near, they will start to place money into financial stocks causing them to lead the markets out of the bearish mode.This is a longer term cycle that could take four to eight years to complete and is therefore, more suited for investors or swing traders looking for signals or an advantage in trading. However, when you are an intraday trader, knowledge of this rotation can also be beneficial. On a day where the markets are bullish, the rotation model can tell you which sectors are best poised to move further in that direction thus improving your returns. The same is true for bearish market days.So the big question on most investors’ and traders’ minds is whether the current market environment is going to continue to seek new highs or is primed for a crash. There is no doubt that the markets are overbought and valuations of many securities are extremely high. We can look to see what the sector rotation tells us about where those investors and traders expect both the markets and economy to head.

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Looking at the sector rotation over the last six months, there has definitely been a shift into some of the “safety sectors” for investments. This would indicate that the markets are afraid of an imminent correction or crash coming. Should this trend continue, I would not be surprised to see the markets drop during the summer of this yearTo learn more, I invite you to speak to an Education Counselor at our Online Trading Academy offices and enroll in our Professional Trader Course, and then to continue your education by joining the Extended Learning Track (XLT) program where we learn to identify the sector rotation using simple tools and analysis and many other techniques for improving your chances for trading success.


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Merlin Rothfeld and Jasmine Wang discuss global currencies.

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Further delay in reaching an agreement between Greece and its creditors could raise the yields on debt of other countries even though the sovereign-banking sector feedback mechanisms are less likely to cause much damage this time, the European Central Bank said in a report on Thursday.

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Before diving into current markets, and the ridiculous Wednesday rally, Merlin jumps on the soapbox to rant about the current FIFA issues flooding the media. Why all this attention on FIFA when our Elected officials are just as guilty? Later, Merlin talks about the Semiconductor sector, which was the major catalyst for Wednesday’s rally.

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India's economy grew strongly in the three months to March led by manufacturing, outpacing China, while economists and observers raise doubts regarding the credibility of the data as previous figures underwent sharp revision. Gross domestic product rose 7.5 percent year-on-year in the March quarter, exceeding economists' consensus for 7.3 percent expansion.

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