AUD Technical Analysis

An AUD/CHF Short That’ll Test Your Mettle

Talking Points:

• Accelerating Downtrend in AUD/CHF
• "Bounce-or-Break" Scenario on Daily Chart
• 3 Ways to Trade This Short Set-up

AUDCHF is not a pair that often features in most traders' considerations, but it may well be setting up for a nice move soon.
The weekly chart below shows a downtrend that has accelerated over the past year, as evidenced by the steeper trend line. Although there is almost certainly divergence regardless of which indicator is used, even a single weekly candlestick downwards could potentially yield 150 pips or more. Given how long this trend has been in force, it is certainly wiser to go with the downward flow rather than bet against it.

Guest Commentary: Accelerating Weekly Downtrend in AUD/CHF

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The daily chart below shows an even more optimistic picture, as AUDCHF is currently testing resistance and there are approximately 300 pips between the current price and the previous low. As with all “bounce-or-break” scenarios involving trend lines, it is far wiser to assume that the trend is still intact, and that makes this an excellent short set-up.

Guest Commentary: “Excellent” Short Set-up in AUD/CHF

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The four-hour chart is most forthcoming with regard to support and resistance. Previous horizontal levels from a consolidation zone have just come into effect for this trade and are likely to provide a potential turning point.

Guest Commentary: Potential Turning Point for AUD/CHF

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The key resistance zone is defined as 0.8050-0.8141, but mildly disturbing about this zone is that it is 91 pips wide, which is close to a day's average true range for this pair. Thus, more conservative traders may actually prefer to take a trigger off the four-hour chart. The risk would be somewhat larger (most likely in the 30- to 40-pip range), but given the potential for 300 pips or more, this would hardly be a problem. This is actually the best way to trade this set-up.
It is also possible to trade it on an hourly time frame, with only some modifications.

Guest Commentary: Hourly Set-up in AUD/CHF

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The recent momentum that has caused price to barrel into the resistance zone is cause for concern. Thus, an additional level of resistance has been estimated using the Fibonacci expansion tool. This provides a smaller resistance area (0.8090-0.8134) within the larger zone, but given how close the top is to the larger zone, the final preferred risk zone is 0.8090-0.8141. This zone is only 51 pips in depth, which is acceptable on the risk side of the equation.

It is worth noting that by targeting a smaller resistance zone, the trade may actually miss triggering by just a little before shooting down, but that is a trade-off that more conservative traders must accept. Aggressive traders, on the other hand, could still use the original blue box on the hourly chart, provided they are extremely defensive in their trade management.

Trades on both time frames may be initiated using bearish reversal divergence, pin bars, and/or bearish engulfing candlesticks as triggers. Two or three attempts should be made to get onto the move.

The interesting thing about this set-up is that there may actually be a case for more highly skilled traders to enter scalps off the white box on the 15-minute chart (not shown). Less-experienced traders should stay away from this approach, however, as it requires expert trade management.
By Kaye Lee, private fund trader and head trader consultant, StraightTalkTrading.com


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Popular AUD/CAD Pattern That May Not Work This Time

Talking Points:

• Weak Uptrend on AUD/CAD Daily Chart
• Trading Against a Head-and-Shoulders Pattern
• Key Support Zone for Buying AUD/CAD

Head-and-shoulders patterns tend to generate a lot of excitement among traders. However, there are a few factors that can cause these popular patterns to fail, especially if they are entered too quickly. AUDCAD is currently exhibiting one potential example of this situation.

As shown below, the rising wedge pattern on the AUDCAD daily chart signals a rather weak uptrend in the bigger picture, but it has not yet shown any of the usual wedge pattern breakdown signals. The most telling signal would be a quick move beyond the upper wedge resistance before breaking back in again swiftly. Since it has done no such thing, this pattern can be traded using traditional support and resistance principles instead.

Guest Commentary: Rising Wedge Pattern on AUD/CAD Daily Chart

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The head-and-shoulders pattern on the below AUDCAD four-hour chart will become obvious once the neckline denoted by the black horizontal line has been drawn. However, less-experienced traders might easily miss the fact that this pattern will have to punch through at least three levels of rising support in order to achieve its goal. In addition, this goes against the dominant trend on the daily chart.

Guest Commentary: Head-and-Shoulders Pattern in AUD/CAD

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This is not impossible, of course. However, a far more likely short-term development would be a bounce off one of these rising lines of support, which is why today's trade is to the long side.

The hourly chart below clearly provides a reasonable support zone for initiating new longs. The exact zone comes in at 0.9849-0.9882.

Guest Commentary: Key Support Zone for Buying AUD/CAD

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This risk zone is a mere 33 pips deep, as compared to the 60-100 pips that even a conservative move to retest the recent highs would supply.

Nonetheless, in order to achieve greater precision with this trade entry, the 15-minute time frame (chart not shown) is preferred. Viable triggers would include the usual suspects, including bullish reversal divergence, pin bars, and/or bullish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart.

Dropping down to the lower time frame should provide even narrower risk, however, traders should be willing to take two or three tries to get in on this move. Although this is essentially an intraday trade, part of the position can be scaled out and the remainder left to ride what could be a worthwhile move amid acceptable risk.

By Kaye Lee, private fund trader and head trader consultant, StraightTalkTrading.com


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Entering the AUD/USD Pullback Is All About Timing

Talking Points:

• AUD/USD remains on a long term downtrend
• The daily Aussie chart lacks directional bias
• Wait for a break of support or resistance before entering the trade

There has been no question that the Australian Dollar is trading in a long-term downtrend against the US Dollar since the pair broke below the 2.5 year low in June of 2013. AUD/USD then continued to set new 3-year lows in January 2014, but only after posting a healthy 50% pullback of the original move lower. However, with a second pullback of the downtrend underway, traders must now consider if and when to enter the possible continuation of the downtrend.

AUD/USD Weekly: February 27, 2014

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Attachment 5754

Looking at a daily chart, we see that when the Aussie broke out of the second leg of the downtrend, the pair continued to trade in a less shallow downtrend around the start of the New Year. But that down trend was also broken earlier this month, when a period of sideways trading unconvincingly brought the pair above the upper channel.

AUD/USD Daily: February 27, 2014

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AUD/USD continues to trade above the upper trend channel, the pair tested and failed to break above the 2-month high at .9086, which may scare traders away from trying to place bets on AUD/USD rising further. On a 4 hour chart below, we also find an upward trend line from early February that may continue to provide support, and the 2-month high at .9086 in January may continue to provide resistance.

AUD/USD 4-Hour: February 27, 2014

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Traders looking to short the Aussie against the greenback should wait for a convincing daily close below support by the upward trendline, while those expecting a further pullback to the long-term downward trendline from the weekly chart should wait for a daily close above the January high.

Attachment 5755

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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.9177 (38.2% Fib exp.), 0.9132 (Mar 7 high)
• Resistance: 0.9233 (50% Fib exp.), 0.9290 (61.8% Fib exp.)

The Australian Dollar continued to push higher against its US counterpart for a fourth consecutive day, taking out resistance at 0.9177 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. The bulls are now testing the 50% level at 0.9233, with a break above that eyeing the 61.8% Fib at 0.9290. Alternatively, a reversal back below 0.9177 aims for the March 7 highat 0.9132.

Prices are too close to relevant resistance to justify a long position from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, entering a short trade looks premature absent a new bearish reversal signal. We will continue to stand aside for now, waiting for a more attractive setup to present itself.

Attachment 6267

Attachment 6268

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


More...

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- Extremely one-sided forex crowd positions underline reversal risk


http://youtu.be/xdVL023YQmY

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 0.9363 (38.2% Fib exp.), 0.9303 (23.6% Fib exp.)
• Resistance: 0.9412 (50% Fib exp.), 0.9461 (61.8% Fib exp.)

The Australian Dollar continued to advance for a third consecutive day against its US namesake hitting the highest level in five months. Buyers are now testing the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 0.9412, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing for the 61.8% level at 0.9461. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 0.9363 targets the 23.6% expansion at 0.9303.

The available range between near-term support and resistance is too narrow to make for an attractive trade setup for a strategy using a stop-loss activated on a daily closing basis (as is the case for our approach) given a 20-day ATR reading of 70. We will remain on the flat for now.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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An AUD/JPY Breakout Signal That’s Not as Good as It Seems

Talking Points:

• Misleading Pin Bar on AUD/JPY Daily Chart
• 2 Resistance Zones Clearly in Play Now
• Where and When to Consider AUD/JPY Shorts

One of the more popular strategies for end-of-day trading involves the pin bar, which many use to great effect. However, today's intraday trade actually highlights a pin bar breakout on the AUDJPY daily chart that may not work out as well as longer-term traders may hope.
As shown below, the pin bar high has just been broken on the daily chart, and price appears to be happily on its way. However, there are two clear horizontal ranges in play on this time frame, and price is about to retest a roof. It may or may not break to the topside from here, but intraday traders could take their chances with countertrend trades here nonetheless.

Guest Commentary: 2 Daily Ranges in Play for AUD/JPY

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If price reacts—and recent candles have reacted to this level many times—then there is at least potential for a scalp here, one that could turn into a longer-term trade if price heads lower. There are 70 pips to be had even to reach the rising trend line below, and if it breaks, it would signify a shift in the somewhat dubious-looking uptrend comprised of many overlapping swings.

The lower portion of the resistance zone on the four-hour chart (see below) is obvious, as it is simply the level that has recently held as resistance.

Guest Commentary: Key Resistance Zone for Selling AUD/JPY

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To provide some room for error, a value approximately one-third of the current horizontal range has been added to the topside, giving an overall resistance zone of 95.18-95.47. This zone is 29 pips deep, which is a little large compared with the (conservative) potential 70-pip move to the trend line.

As a result, the better idea would be to trade this set-up using a trigger from the hourly chart, shown below. There are a lot of overlapping moves here, which suggests that the current upward move is being consistently challenged by sellers and is most likely not a trend move.

Guest Commentary: Ideal Time Frame for Taking This Trade

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With that in mind, once AUDJPY touches resistance, short entries could be made using bearish engulfing patterns, pin bars, and/or bearish reversal divergence on this hourly time frame. As always, however, two or three attempts may be needed in order to successfully hop on to this move.

By Kaye Lee, private fund trader and head trader consultant, StraightTalkTrading.com


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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.9328
• Support: 0.9201 (23.6% Fib exp.), 0.9041 (38.2% Fib exp.)
• Resistance: 0.9358 (channel floor), 0.9408 (May 14 high)

The Australian Dollar looks vulnerable to deeper losses after prices broke below support at the bottom of a rising channel set from late January. Sellers now aim to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.9201, with a daily close below that exposing the 38.2% level at 0.9041. The channel floor, now at 0.9358, has been recast as near-term resistance. A move back above that initially targets the May 14 high at 0.9408.

We will now enter short in line with our fundamental outlook, aiming for 0.9201 as an initial objective. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 0.9408. We will take profit on half of the trade at the first target and trail the stop-loss to the breakeven level.


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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Pending Long
• Clear candlestick reversal patterns absent on the daily chart
• Harami on the four hour timeframe awaiting confirmation

AUD/USD is awaiting guidance near the 0.9320 mark with candlestick reversal signals lacking on the daily chart. This suggests the pair’s consolidation beneath the 0.9440 level of resistance may be set to continue.

AUD/USD: Awaiting Guidance Near Support At 0.9320

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Examining the four hour timeframe; a Harami pattern suggests the bears may be relinquishing their grip on prices in early European trade. The formation could hint at a push back to 0.9440 if confirmed by a second up-period and break above intraday resistance at 0.9360.

AUD/USD: Harami Suggests Bears Losing Steam

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Longs preferred
• Doji highlights indecision suggesting range may persist
• Harami on the four hour timeframe yielded intraday recovery

AUD/USD continues its consolidation between the 0.9320 and 0.9440 mark with a Doji on the daily suggesting indecision amongst traders. The pair could remain range-bound in the absence of key reversal candlestick patterns.

Range Remains In Play

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Examining the four hour timeframe; a Harami pattern as noted in yesterday’s report yielded an intraay recovery for the Aussie. With the pair holding above the 0.9360 mark a run on 0.9400 may be possible with bearish patterns lacking.

Harami Hinted At Intraday Recovery

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Shorts Preferred
• Dark Cloud Cover Offered Warning Near Range-Top
• Harami Pattern May Find Limited Follow-Through

The Australian Dollar may struggle to recover further ground despite the emergence of a Harami pattern on the daily, given sellers remain nearby at 0.9320. A daily close above the critical resistance level would be required to confirm a bullish reversal, which would open the former range-top at 0.9440.

Harami May Find Limited Follow-Through

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The four hour chart below reveals some hesitation by traders during the Asian session (denoted by a Doji candlestick near 0.9330). However, the pair has yet to see a bearish reversal pattern emerge, which would warn of a correction. This suggests the currency may consolidate over the session ahead.

Bulls Hesistate Near 0.9320/0.9330

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Shorts Preferred
• Harami Offers Bullish Reversal Signal Near 0.9320
• H4 Demonstrates Absence of Key Bearish Patterns

The Australian Dollar threatens a push towards its range-top near 0.9440 following a Harami formation on the daily. However, some skepticism for a sustained recovery may be warranted by a Doji forming in intraday trade (indicating hesitation by the bulls). This suggests the recent recovery may be little more than a corrective bounce at this point.

Sustained Recovery Questionable

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The four hour chart below reveals some hesitation by traders during the Asian session (denoted by a Doji candlestick near 0.9330). However, the pair has yet to see a bearish reversal pattern emerge, which would warn of a correction. Further gains would likely be met by selling pressure at the 0.9360 mark.

Bulls Hesitate Near 0.9320/0.9330

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.9186
• Support:0.9085, 0.8955, 0.8826
• Resistance: 0.9195, 0.9264, 0.9365

The Australian Dollar appears poised to continue lower against the US Dollar after sliding to the weakest level in close to five months. A break below support at the bottom of a falling channel set from mid-June exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.9085, with a further push beyond that targeting the 50% level at 0.8955. Alternatively, a reversal back above the channel floor – now recast as resistance at 0.9195, opens the door for a test of the 0.9245-64 area marked by a rising trend line set from April and the 23.6% expansion.

A bounce following channel break has made for actionable risk/reward parameters and we will not enter short, initially targeting 0.9085. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 0.9287. We will take profit on half of the position and move the stop-loss to breakeven once the first objective is achieved.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
• Dragonfly Doji Signaled Hesitation Near 0.8660
• Climb Over 0.8815 Ceiling To Suggest A Base

AUD/USDhas bounced off the 0.8660 barrier after a Dragonfly Doji denoted reluctance from traders to lead the pair lower. However, the candlestick formation is not classed as a key reversal pattern. This casts some doubt over whether sentiment has truly shifted for the pair. A climb over the nearby 0.8815 hurdle would help suggest a base and may open a retest of the 0.8885 ceiling.

Dragonfly Doji Suggested Indecision Near 2014 Low

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The return of the bulls was heralded by a Piercing Line pattern on the four hour chart. The leap over 0.8770 amid an absence of reversal signals may see the Aussie’s gains extend towards the 0.8830 ceiling.

Piercing Line Pattern Signaled Turning Point
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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
• Piercing Line Near 0.8660 Awaiting Confirmation
• Close Over 0.8815 Ceiling Needed To Suggest A Base

AUD/USD’s sharp rebound from the 0.8660 floor has generated a Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Yet with strong selling pressure overhead the potential for the reversal pattern to generate a genuine shift in sentiment may be limited. A daily close over the 0.8815 hurdle would be required to suggest a base and could conceivably open a retest of the 0.8885 ceiling.

Key Reversal Pattern Emerges Near 2014 Low

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The four hour chart suggests the Aussie’s recovery is already showing signs of exhaustion. An ensemble of Dojis, short body candles and a Hanging Man indicate that upside momentum is fading. This could open a revisit of the recent lows near 0.8660.

Recovery Shows Signs Of Exhaustion In Intraday Trade

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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Talking Points

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines Preferred
• Limited Follow-Through For Candlesticks On The Daily
• Awaiting Break From 0.8660 to 0.8900 Trading Range

AUD/USD remains trapped within its narrow trading band between 0.8660 and 0.8885 with an ensemble of Dojis evident on the daily. The candlestick formations indicate indecision from traders and leave a more constructive setup desired to offer a clearer technical bias.

Awaiting Break From Range As Intraday Swings Continue

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Choppy trading conditions on the four hour chart have given rise to several candlestick formations. Yet follow-through remains lacking. This leaves a more constructive setup desired for playing the pair.

Price Compression Continues

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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USD/JPY
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• USD/JPY is in consolidation mode below 119.00
• Our near-term trend bias is positive on the exchange rate while above 116.80
• The 119.00 area is interim resistance ahead of the next key Gann pivot at 119.50 and a long term retracement zone at 120.20
• The next turn window of significance is eyed early next month
• A close under 116.80 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 116.80.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	116.80	117.40	117.75	119.00	119.50

AUD/USD

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• AUD/USD broke under the 50% retracement of the 2008-2011 advance yesterday to trade at its lowest level in 4-years
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below .8660
• The 127% extension of the early November advance at .8470 is the next key support of note
• A minor cyclical turn window is eyed around the end of the week
• A close above .8660 would turn us positive on AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under .8660.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
AUD/USD	.8435	.8470	.8500	.8540	.8660

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Talking Points

• Strategy: Short (From 0.8530), Stop: 0.8540 (Daily Close), Target: 0.8330
• Bullish Morning Star Pattern Taking Shape On The Daily
• Harami On The H4 Timeframe Offered A Recovery Hint

AUD/USD’s small rebound has produced a Dragonfly Doji on the daily which is threatening to evolve into a bullish Morning Star formation. The close of the current candle above 0.8450 and an ensuing up-session would be required to confirm the pattern and open the prospect of further gains. Yet until received negative cues are offered by a short-term downtrend, leaving shorts preferred.
AUD/USD: Morning Star Pattern Takes Shape
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A Harami formation on the four hour chart offered an early hint at a potential intraday bounce for the Aussie. With no key bearish patterns in sight for the pair it may be open to further gains over the session ahead. This in turn offers a slight contrast to the less positive picture painted by the daily.

AUD/USD: Lacking Bearish Reversal Signals In Intraday Trade

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By David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX


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• AUDUSD broadening bottom?
• USDJPY could slip to 116.50
• USDCAD nears multi-month floor

EUR/USD
Weekly

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-“There is a long term level to be aware of. The line that extends off of the 2008 and 2010 lows is at about 1.0545 this week. The March 2003 low is at 1.0499.”
-“EURUSD finished the week above 1.08, indicating potential for a period of sideways trading in the coming months. The first important resistance stems from former slope support just below 1.13 over the next several weeks.”
-EURUSD is nearing the first 20 day high (1.1052) since 7/1/2014. In fact, it’s been 196 days since the last 20 day high. A new 20 day high would signal a major behavior change in EURUSD (from down to sideways).

GBP/USD
Weekly

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-“A breakdown towards 1.4250-1.4350 may be underway.” The weekly reversal casts doubt on the call for 1.4350. Slope resistance that caught the February high near 1.55 could act as a magnet now. Daily and weekly divergence with momentum at price lows indicate the possibility for a turn higher.

AUD/USD
Weekly

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-AUDUSD continues to trade between well-defined slope lines but beware of a possible broadening bottom (very difficult pattern to trade).
-Trade outside of the bearish upper parallel that has contained strength since late October would shift focus to a former support line (turned resistance in January) near .8180.

NZD/USD
Weekly

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-“NZDUSD traded to the 61.8% retracement of its 3 year range today (.7929) and the next level of interest probably isn’t until the 2013 Labor Day gap at .7722. One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”
-If the major double top is going to prove successful, then the February high needs to remain in place. Risk of a double bottom has emerged that would yield an objective of .8038 although Kiwi would probably face pressure from longer term slope resistance near .7750.

USD/JPY
Weekly

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-“Continue to favor a broad range as 119.80-120.70 as resistance and 116.40-117.10 as support. A move through either one of these zones would define target zones of 124-128 and 110-114.”
-“The lack of volume on strength since January warns that all is not well with the USDJPY uptrend.” The next support level is probably 116.50.

USD/CAD
Weekly

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-“The contracting range indicates potential for a triangle from the high. Typically, a triangle will lead to a thrust in the direction of the preceding trend. The slight new high satisfies minimum requirements for a triangle thrust. USDCAD risks a return to 1.19 (old resistance line).”

USD/CHF
Weekly

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-USDCHF has reversed from 9 year trendline resistance. Focus is on the median line (about .9300) that extends off of the 2012 high. This line crosses through highs in 2013 and the October 2014 low. The 52 week MA is near this line as well.


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I guess it's time to open a buy at 0.7740 with the stop-loss at 0.7730. My target is at 0.7820, as I'm sure there will be a pivot at around 0.7820-0.7840.


https://charts.mql5.com/7/612/audusd...apital-ltd.png

It's time to open a buy again. Smaller bull-back, but it's gonna be profitable though. I'll open a deal at 0.7732 and close it at 0.7840, as I'm sure, there will be a pivot again.
https://charts.mql5.com/7/630/audusd...apital-ltd.png

I am not sure about AUDUSD ...
If we look at H4 timeframe so - yes, this is bullish market condition but secondary ranging. And the breakdown is still going on

Attachment 12984
If buy so tp may be below 0.7806 and sl as 0.7705 for example (for H4 timeframe)

As to M5 timeframe so it may be buy stop order at 0.7733 and sell stop at 0.7721 for example:

Attachment 12985

If we look at Heiken Parabolic Trading System for H4 timeframe so it is ranging: 2 Parabolic indicators are in contradiction with each other:

Attachment 12986

Something is just started on M1 timeframe concerning buy trade but I am not sure that it is long-term tendency sorry:

Attachment 12987

newdigital, yeah, you were right. I didn't pay attention that the AUD currency highly depends on oil prices, as it's recourse-based one. Now I will keep in mind all the factors to make right decisions.

The move of AUD/USD turned the main trend to down, but it also put the market inside a value zone which may produce a short-term technical bounce. The U.S., Europe and the U.K have bank holidays today, so today's trading should be not so difficult...

https://charts.mql5.com/7/928/audusd...apital-ltd.png

This is my technical analysis on mql5.com which I made yesterday:

AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 24.05 - 31.05: bearish reversal breakdown with 0.7532 key support and 0.8162 key resistance

The AUD/USD market's currently going down, but at the same time it's trying to form a support not to fell below 0.7755. I think now we should wait for stronger support to start buying here.

https://charts.mql5.com/7/934/audusd...apital-ltd.png

There was some growth here, but now some sideways trend is expected to start.
https://charts.mql5.com/8/14/audusd-...apital-ltd.png

I guess this pair made rather strong supportive level and will move between 0.7600 and 0.7800
https://charts.mql5.com/8/53/audusd-...apital-ltd.png

Daily

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-The sharp turn higher in AUDUSD raises the specter of additional range trading (between .7600 and .8100).
-2 lows near .7600 indicates potential for a short term double bottom and continuation of a broader range trade.

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Well, bears really dominate here. The pair is expected to go downward with small rollbacks.
https://charts.mql5.com/8/167/audusd...ital-ltd-2.png

We can see a small rollback from 0.7575 support level. So, if the pair break this level, it will go to 0.7455 support area.
https://charts.mql5.com/8/187/audusd...apital-ltd.png

• EURUSD March-May line is key
• GBPUSD 1.5460 serves as the pivot
• AUDUSD breakdown targets at .7143 and .6902

EUR/USD
Weekly

Attachment 14620

-“Since the March low, EURUSD has rallied sharply and declined sharply. The decline from the May high ended near the 61.8% retracement of the March-May advance. Daily RSI briefly poked above 70 at the May high and bottomed at 40 at the May low. These observations are consistent with a sideways market at worst and possibly the early stages of a larger rally. Even a test of the major breakdown level would result in a move to 1.20.”
-If the broader move is higher then EURUSD needs to hold above the line that connects the March and May lows. That line produced support following the weekend gap from 1.1171..

GBP/USD
Weekly

Attachment 14621

-“GBPUSD has broken above its 52 week average for the first time since September 2013. There are hurdles to clear from slope resistance (on various time frames) up to about 1.60. As such, a period of consolidation below 1.60 may be in store before an attempt on 1.64+ (2 equal legs from the April low).”
-If the decline from 1.5929 is nothing more than a pullback, then support should come in near 1.5460.

AUD/USD
Weekly

Attachment 14622

-“A slope confluence pinpointed the May high, which keeps the broader trend pointed lower. A long term level to be aware of in AUDUSD is the line that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows, which is near .7100. Be aware that the range that has been underway since April could persist for months and morph into a triangle or flat pattern.” The immediate picture is bearish as long as price is below .7740. Range expansion objectives yield .7143 and .6902.

NZD/USD
Weekly

Attachment 14623

-“One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”
-“A bearish wedge pattern has formed and yields an objective of .6607.” Look towards the mentioned objectives (.6607 and .5898) as long as price is below .7230. A daily close above .6923 would warn of a bottoming attempt.

USD/JPY
Weekly

Attachment 14624

-“A USDJPY breakout from the 6 month coil would open up 123.16-124.13 (high close from June 2007 and 2007 high). A measured objective from the pattern yields 125.72 and 128.12.”
-“USDJPY ended up trading to 125.85 (the mentioned 125.72 was the December range x .618 + the December high…basically a Fibonacci range expansion). Failure at long term uptrend resistance indicates potential for an important top to form. As I type, there are 2 days left in June and USDJPY is little changed for the month (month open is 124.10). In other words, a monthly doji could form…at a 20 year trendline (former support…may provide resistance now)!”
-June’s trade produced a monthly key reversal in USDJPY. Weakness below 121.90 would increase confidence of that a top of some importance has formed.

USD/CAD
Weekly

Attachment 14625

-“A broader range may in store. In fact, weekly RSI recorded its 2nd highest reading ever in Jan (only higher reading was in 1984). Other high periods led to extended periods of sideways trading. The failed run at a high volume level (1.2560) twice warns of additional range trading.”
-A 10 month trendline has supported USDCAD on recent dips. The development indicates potential for resumption of the broader bull move.

USD/CHF
Weekly

Attachment 14626

-“The break above near term slope this week indicates a short term behavior change. .9250 needs to hold in order to look higher. Watch for resistance near .9600 (50% from the March high at .9599 and 2 equal legs from the May low at .9621).”
-USDCHF dropped into .9250 this week (low was .9242) and promptly rocketed to .9500. Focus is higher as long as price is above .9242. The mentioned .9600 may provide resistance. Near term support is estimated at .9330. A break above .9600 would target .9913 (Fibonacci).


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• Smallest weekly USDJPY range since August 2014
• AUDUSD line off of 2001 and 2008 lows is near .7100
• NZDUSD Fibonacci confluence worthy of note at .64

EUR/USD
Weekly

Attachment 14995

-“The tightening range since the May high could compose a triangle within a larger advance from the March low.” A broader range does of course remain possible but with EURUSD breaking support this week, one must consider a more immediate bearish alternative. Comparisons with 1997 (pre euro trading but a calculated value is plotted) price behavior are striking. In both 1997 and 2015, the rate plunged out of the gate into March. Weekly RSI registered extremes the weeks of 3/3/97 and 3/9/15. Ensuing corrections stretched into the weeks of 5/19/97 and 5/11/15. In 1997, EURUSD dropped sharply into the week of 8/4 before reversing sharply to return to its May high. If something similar happens here, then EURUSD would trade down to about .9840 in August before trading back to 1.1450+.
-Near term, the rate has traded into resistance (old support).

GBP/USD
Weekly

Attachment 14996

-“GBPUSD has broken above its 52 week average for the first time since September 2013. There are hurdles to clear from slope resistance (on various time frames) up to about 1.60. As such, a period of consolidation below 1.60 may be in store before an attempt on 1.64+ (2 equal legs from the April low).”
-The ‘period of consolidation’ turned into a 6 figure decline from well-defined slope resistance. The rate has turned down from below the well-defined 1.5700. You might see support near 1.5359. A break below there would open up 1.4950-1.5100.

AUD/USD
Weekly

Attachment 14997

-“A slope confluence pinpointed the May high, which keeps the broader trend pointed lower. A long term level to be aware of in AUDUSD is the line that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows, which is near .7100. Be aware that the range that has been underway since April could persist for months and morph into a triangle or flat pattern.”
-“The immediate picture is bearish. Range expansion objectives yield .7143 and .6902.” The former level is joined by the trendline that extends off of the 2001 and 2008 lows. The decline from the 2011 high would consist of 2 equal legs (subdivided with the 2013 low and 2014 high) at .7084.


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• EURUSD long term channel?
• AUDUSD large outside day on Friday
• USDCHF testing Fibonacci level

EUR/USD Weekly

Attachment 15148

-Keep this comparison with the late 90s in mind as long as EURUSD respects bearish slope on the daily but also note that EURUSD continues to hold up at the line that extends off of the 2000 and 2001 lows. The slope of this line is similar to the slope of the line that connects the 1995 (synthetic rate) and 2008 highs. A parallel extended from the 2000 low creates a channel so don’t dismiss resistance breaks on the daily (from long term support).

GBP/USD Weekly

Attachment 15149

-“GBPUSD has broken above its 52 week average for the first time since September 2013. There are hurdles to clear from slope resistance (on various time frames) up to about 1.60. As such, a period of consolidation below 1.60 may be in store before an attempt on 1.64+ (2 equal legs from the April low).”
-The ‘period of consolidation’ turned into a 6 figure decline from well-defined slope resistance. The rate has turned down from below the well-defined 1.5700. You might see support near 1.5359. A break below there would open up 1.4950-1.5100.

AUD/USD Weekly

Attachment 15145

-“A slope confluence pinpointed the May high, which keeps the broader trend pointed lower. A long term level to be aware of in AUDUSD is the line that connects the 2001 and 2008 lows, which is near .7100.”
-“The immediate picture is bearish. Range expansion objectives yield .7143 and .6902.” The former level is joined by the trendline that extends off of the 2001 and 2008 lows. The decline from the 2011 high would consist of 2 equal legs (subdivided with the 2013 low and 2014 high) at .7084. Exceeding .7450 would indicate a change in behavior for Aussie.

NZD/USD Weekly

Attachment 15146

-“One can’t help but notice that an epic double top is possible with a target of .5898. That would trigger on a drop below .7370.”
-“A bearish wedge pattern has formed and yields an objective of .6607.” Look towards the mentioned objectives (.6607 and .5898). The wedge objective has been reached as has the 2010 low at .6560. The next levels to be aware of are .64 (61.8% retracement of the 2009-2011 rally and 50% retracement of the 2000-2011 rally) and .60 (long term double top target).

USD/JPY Weekly

Attachment 15147

-“A USDJPY breakout from the 6 month coil would open up 123.16-124.13 (high close from June 2007 and 2007 high). A measured objective from the pattern yields 125.72 and 128.12.”
-“USDJPY ended up trading to 125.85 (the mentioned 125.72 was the December range x .618 + the December high…basically a Fibonacci range expansion). Failure at long term uptrend resistance indicates potential for an important top to form. As I type, there are 2 days left in June and USDJPY is little changed for the month (month open is 124.10). In other words, a monthly doji could form…at a 20 year trendline (former support…may provide resistance now)!”
-“June’s trade produced a monthly key reversal in USDJPY.” USDJPY has snapped back but a break above the long term resistance confluence (uptrend resistance and the line from the 1995 and 2005 highs) is still needed in order to minimize downside risk.

USD/CAD Weekly

Attachment 15150

-“A 10 month trendline has supported USDCAD on recent dips. The development indicates potential for resumption of the broader bull move.”
-“USDCAD has broken out. 11 year highs aren’t far off. The 2009 high is at 1.3062 (just below the 127.2% extension of the March-May range, which is at 1.3083).” 11 year highs have been reached. The next measured level is the 161.8% extension of the March-May range at 1.3399. The March high at 1.2834 is now support. Weakness below there would delay the immediate bullish picture until probably 1.2660.


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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.7214
• Australian Dollar Drops Most in 4 Years, Breaks Range Floor
• Short Trade Triggered Aiming for Support Below 0.71 Figure

The Australian Dollar came back under pressure, putting in the largest daily decline in nearly four years against its US counterpart. The typically sentiment-geared currency had been slow to react as risk aversion began to sweep the financial markets but a belated response appears to be underway as broad-based turmoil bleeds into RBA policy bets.

A break of long-stubborn range support above the 0.72 figure has exposed the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7084 as the next downside barrier of significance. A daily close beneath that opens the door for a test of the 50% level at 0.6974. The 23.6% Fib at 0.7219 has been recast as near-term resistance, with a reversal back above that putting the 14.6% expansion at 0.7303 in focus once again.

Attachment 15607

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Talking Points:
The Australian Dollar made another strong push to the downside against its US namesakeafter a brief consolidative period. The pair issued the largest drop in two weeks, slumping to the lowest level in six months.

The next layer of support is now at 0.6880, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% level at 0.6748. Alternatively, a move back above support-turned-resistance at 0.6987, the 50% Fib, opens the door for a test of the 38.2% expansion at 0.7093.

We sold AUDUSD at 0.7214 and have since booked profit on half of the trade as well as moved the stop-loss to the breakeven level. The remainder of the trade will remain in play to capture any further downward momentum ahead.

Attachment 15794

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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Aussie Dollar Bounce Stalls at Key Trend Line, Hints at Possible Downturn
• Opting to Pass on Short Position Pending Bearish Reversal Confirmation

The Australian Dollar moved higher against its US counterpart as expected following the appearance of a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Prices have now stalled at trend line resistance capping gains since mid-May, with a Doji-like candle hinting a rejection downward may be in the cards ahead.

Near-term support is at 0.7088, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis clearing the way for a challenge of the 23.6% level at 0.7041. Alternatively, a push above the 50% Fib retracement at 0.7173 – a barrier reinforced by the aforementioned trend line barrier – opens the door for a test of the 61.8% threshold at 0.7236.

Positioning is inconclusive for now. The candlestick setup points to indecision and may merely represent prices’ acknowledgement of an important technical ahead, marking a pause prior to an upside break rather than on-coming reversal lower. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now and wait for confirmation before pulling the trigger on a short position.

Attachment 15925



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