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CHF Technical Analysis
Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8986 (23.6% Fib exp.), 0.8947 (trend line)
- Resistance: 0.9038 (38.2% Fib exp.), 0.9081 (50% Fib exp.)
The Swiss Franc pulled back against the US Dollar yesterday but prices failed to reclaim a foothold above support-turned-resistance at 0.9038, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close above this barrier initially exposes the 50% level at 0.9081. Alternatively, a reversal below support at 0.8986, the 23.6% Fib, eyes a rising trend line set from mid-December (now at 0.8950).
On balance, positioning is little-changed from yesterday, with prices oscillating in a choppy range around familiar levels and offering little by way of a discernibly attractive trade setup. We will keep to the sidelines for now, waiting for something actionable to emerge.
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Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8986 (23.6% Fib exp.), 0.8954 (trend line)
- Resistance: 0.9038 (38.2% Fib exp.), 0.9081 (50% Fib exp.)
Swiss Franc technical positioning is little-changed from yesterday, with prices treading water above 0.90 to the US Dollar. A daily close above support-turned-resistance at 0.9038, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposes the 50% level at 0.9081. Alternatively, a turn below support at 0.8986, the 23.6% Fib, targets a rising trend line set from mid-December (now at 0.8954).
Yesterday’s price action formed a Doji candle, pointing to indecision below resistance and hinting a move lower may be ahead. Confirmation is absent however, arguing against taking a short position. Meanwhile, taking a shot on the long side looks unattractive from a risk/reward perspective. We will hold off on taking a trade at current levels.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Needs to Overcome .8940 to Suggest that Path is Higher
Daily
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-On 12/27, USDCHF spiked to its lowest level since November 2011. The advance from the 12/27 low is impulsive (5 waves). As such, it’s possible that an important low is in place.
-The rejection at former lows (June and August lows) has given way to a larger dip. The market needs to overcome .8940 (daily closing preferably) in order to make the case for higher levels. .8831/59 is the final level of possible support before the December low (the market reacted here on Wednesday and Thursday). If .8800 gives way, then focus would shift to the October 2011 low at .8567.
LEVELS: .8798 .8839 .8861 | .8911 .8939 .8986
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2 Attachment(s)
Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8848-66 (Dec’13 bottom, 23.6% Fib ret.), 0.8776 (Feb 28 low)
- Resistance: 0.8880 (trend line), 0.8921 (38.2% Fib ret.)
Prices stalled at trend line resistance set from late January after the US Dollar produced its strongest push upward in a month against the Swiss Franc. A break this barrier (now at 0.8880) initially exposes 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8921. Support is in the 0.8848-66 area,marked by the December 2013 closing bottom and the 23.6% level, with a break below that eyeing the February 28 lowat 0.8776.
The pair is trading too close to relevant resistance to justify a long position from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, a short position seems premature absent a defined reversal signal. We will remain flat for now.
Attachment 5900
Attachment 5901
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Controversial Pattern, But a Clear NZD/CHF Trade
Talking Points:
- Strange Diamond Pattern in NZD/CHF
- Key Zone for Initiating New Short Positions
- Mixed Short-Term Signals to Contend with
Trading within ranges amidst irregular patterns appears to be the flavor of the week, and staying with that theme, the weekly chart of NZDCHF currently shows one of the oddest looking diamond patterns seen in recent memory.
Guest Commentary: Weekly Diamond Pattern in NZD/CHF
https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...March13A_1.png
Of course, skeptics could simply focus on the triangle portion, which is the second half of the diamond formation. As seen above, it is clear enough and is relatively uncontroversial in comparison. From an analytical standpoint, it will not make too great a difference.
The daily chart below indicates resistance overhead, as price begins an extension move upwards. All that remains is to identify a logical zone of resistance where new short trades can be initiated. This will be in line with the weekly chart's downward trend, which means that overall risk profile should certainly be in order.
Guest Commentary: NZD/CHF Trading Near Overhead Resistance
https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...March13A_2.png
The actual resistance zone is derived on the four-hour chart below, as is customary for trades taken on the hourly time frame. Price action has been somewhat messy on the four-hour chart, but the final zone of resistance is ultimately identifies as 0.7503-0.7542. Price has yet to reach this zone, which should leave traders plenty of time to prepare for a possible entry.
Guest Commentary: Key Zone for Selling NZD/CHF
https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...March13A_3.png
The hourly chart actually shows some mixed signals for this trade. In particular, there has been some bullish price action of late. However, this is tempered by the hidden line of support turned overhead resistance. With some luck, which is always helpful in consolidating markets, this level will continue to hold.
Guest Commentary: Mixed Signals on NZD/CHF Hourly Chart
https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati...March13A_4.png
As usual, the ideal trade triggers would be bearish reversal divergence, pin bars, and/or bearish engulfing patterns on the hourly chart. With the weekly trend potentially resuming from here, it is definitely worth taking two or three tries at getting in on this trade. The risk zone is less than 40 pips wide afterall, and an hourly entry will likely provide stop losses in the 15- to 20-pip range.
By Kaye Lee, private fund trader and head trader consultant, StraightTalkTrading.com
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Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8813 (channel top), 0.8806 (23.6% Fib ret.)
- Resistance: 0.8873 (38.2% Fib ret.), 0.8927 (50% Fib ret.)
The US Dollar roseas expected against the Swiss Franc but the likely way forward is obscured by conflicting technical cues. In one scenario, a pullback from resistance at 0.8873, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, looks like a correction offering a long entry setup in the context of a falling channel breakout. In another, a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern suggests a reversal lower is in progress.
We will stand aside for now, looking for clarification before committing to a directional bias. The bearish scenario would appear more probable following a daily close below the 0.8806-13 area, marked by the channel top and the 23.6% Fib. The bullish case would appear more compelling if prices produced a defined upside reversal signal at support.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8806 (23.6% Fib ret., channel top)
- Resistance: 0.8873 (38.2% Fib ret.), 0.8927 (50% Fib ret.)
The US Dollar began to recovery against the Swiss Franc as expected and more of the same appears to be likely in the period ahead. Conflicted positioning that has plagued the pair recently seems to be starting to tilt in favor of the bulls after prices bounced from falling channel resistance-turned-support, lending credence to last week’s upside breakout. A close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8873 exposes the 50% level at 0.8927. Near-term support is at 0.8806, the intersection of the channel top and the 23.6% retracement.
At this point, prices are too close to relevant resistance to justify a long position from a risk/reward perspective. We will continue to stand aside, looking for the pair to produce a more attractive trading opportunity.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.8952-56 (Apr 4 high, 100% Fib exp.), 0.8896 (76.4% Fib exp.)
- Resistance: 0.9016 (123.6% Fib exp.), 0.9053 (138.2% Fib exp.)
The US Dollar moved higher as expected against the Swiss Franc after prices produced a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A break above resistance in the 0.8952-56 area – the 100% Fibonacci expansion and the April 4 high – has cleared the way for a challenge of the 123.6% level at 0.9016. A daily close above that exposes the 138.2% Fib at 0.9053. A reversal back below 0.8952 aims for the 76.4% Fibat 0.8896.
While a long a position seems workable from a risk/reward perspective, we will tactically opt not to pursue it. The inverse correlation between USDCHF and EURUSD is now 0.92 on 20-day percent change studies, and we already have a short EURUSD position. Adding a long USDCHF trade here would in effect double our existing exposure, so we will continue to stand aside.
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Key Resistance Sub-0.90 Tested
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8934, 0.8904, 0.8861
- Resistance: 0.8983-94, 0.9022-36, 0.9061
The US Dollar continued to push higher against the Swiss Franc, with prices rising to a one-month high en route to the 0.90 figure. Near-term resistance is in the 0.8983-94 area, marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and the June 13 close. A break above that on a daily closing basis aims for the 0.9022-36 region, bracketed by the 50% level and the June 5 top. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 0.8934 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 0.8904.
Prices are too close to resistance to justify entering long from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal argues against taking up the short side. We will remain flat for now.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: June High in the Crosshairs
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8983, 0.8934, 0.8904
- Resistance: 0.9022-36, 0.9061, 0.9110
The US Dollar is attempting to extend its advance against the Swiss Franc having launched to the highest level in nearly two months yesterday. A daily close above resistance in the 0.9022-36 area, marked by the 50% Fibonacci expansion and the June 5 high, exposes the 61.8% level at 0.9061. Alternatively, a turn below the 38.2% Fib at 0.8983 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 0.8934.
Prices are too close to resistance to justify entering long from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal argues against taking up the short side. We will remain flat for now.
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Downswing Threat Remains
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9054, 0.9017, 0.8957
- Resistance: 0.9110, 0.9189, 0.9268
The US Dollar is digesting recent gains below the 0.91 figure against the Swiss Franc, with negative RSI divergence warning a corrective pullback may be ahead. Near-term support is at 0.9054, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 23.6% level at 0.9017. Alternatively, a reversal above the 76.4% Fib expansion at 0.9110 clears the way for a challenge of the 100% threshold at 0.9189.
Risk/reward considerations argue against entering short with prices trading in close proximity to support. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bullish reversal signal suggests taking up the long side is premature. We will remain flat for now.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Familiar Range Still in Play
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9054, 0.9017, 0.8957
- Resistance: 0.9110, 0.9189, 0.9268
The US Dollar is digesting recent gains below the 0.91 figure against the Swiss Franc, with negative RSI divergence warning a corrective pullback may be ahead. Near-term support is at 0.9054, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 23.6% level at 0.9017. Alternatively, a reversal above the 76.4% Fib expansion at 0.9110 clears the way for a challenge of the 100% threshold at 0.9189.
Positioning is inconclusive at this point, with prices sitting in the middle of their recent range without showing clear-cut confirmation of a bearish reversal or a defined invalidation of its possibility. We will continue to stand aside until greater clarity emerges.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Franc Drops to 12-Month Low
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Long at 0.9068
- Support:0.9332, 0.9272, 0.9223
- Resistance: 0.9429, 0.9526, 0.9586
The US Dollar soared to a 12-month high against the Swiss Franc after turning higher as expectedhaving put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 0.9429 exposes the 123% level at 0.9526. Alternatively, a reversal back belowthe 76.4% Fib at 0.9272 opens the door for a test of the61.8% expansionat 0.9272.
We bought USDCHF at 0.9068 and have since taken profit on half of our exposure. The rest remains open to capture any further upside momentum with a stop-loss at 0.9114, our initial objective.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Buyers Overcome 0.95 Figure
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Long at 0.9068
- Support:0.9463, 0.9401, 0.9299
- Resistance: 0.9564, 0.9646, 0.9728
The US Dollar continues to push aggressively higher against the Swiss Franc, with prices soaring to the highest level since mid-July 2013. A daily close above the 38.2%Fibonacci expansionat 0.9564 exposes the 50% level at 0.9646. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 0.9463 opens the door for a challenge of the 0.9401-03 area marked by the September 19 close and the 14.6% expansion.
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Long Position Remains in Play
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Longat 0.9452
- Support: 0.9541, 0.9441, 0.9359
- Resistance:0.9658, 0.9741, 0.9815
The US Dollar declined against the Swiss Franc as expected after prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close below 0.9541-64 area marked by a rising trend line and a falling channel bottom exposes the October 29 low at 0.9441. Alternatively, a reversal above the channel top at 0.9658 clears the way for a test of the November 7 high at 0.9741.
We entered long USDCHF at 0.9452 and subsequently booked profit on half of the position. The remainder of the trade is open to capture any further upside momentum with a stop-loss trailed to breakeven (0.9452).
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Support Above 0.95 in Focus
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.9554, 0.9391, 0.9259
- Resistance:0.9654, 0.9723, 0.9817
The US Dollar turned lower against the Swiss Franc as expected having found resistance near the 0.9800 figure. Near-term support is at 0.9554, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 0.9391. Alternatively, a turn above the 14.6% Fib at 0.9654 opens the door for a challenge of wedge floor support-turned-resistance at 0.9723.
Our long-term outlook calls for a broadly stronger US Dollar against its key counterparts. With that in mind, we will treat the ongoing USDCHF pullback as a chance to get long at more attractive levels once a clear-cut opportunity presents itself rather than a short trade setup.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Broken Wedge Floor Retested
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.9660, 0.9619, 0.9552
- Resistance:0.9727, 0.9781, 0.9835
The US Dollar mounted a swift recovery against the Swiss Franc after falling as expected, with prices threatening to overturn the downward reversal. A daily close above the intersection of Wedge floor support-turned-resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.9727 exposes the 50% level at 0.9781. Alternatively, a decline below the 23.6% Fib at 0.9660 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% level at 0.9619.
Risk/reward considerations argue against entering long with prices in close proximity to resistance. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal suggests taking up the short side is premature. We will remain flat for now, waiting for a more actionable opportunity to present itself.
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Strongest Close in Nearly 6 Years
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 1.0118, 1.0010, 0.9902
- Resistance: 1.0185, 1.0239, 1.0293
The US Dollar continues to push higher against the Swiss Franc, with buyers extending the advance for a fifth consecutive day. Near-term resistance is at 1.0185, the 138.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 150% level at 1.0239. Alternatively, a reversal below the 123.6% Fib at 1.0118 clears the way for a challenge of the 100% expansion at 1.0010.
The available trading range is too narrow to justify a trade on the long or short side from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines for now and wait for a more actionable opportunity to present itself.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Longest Rally Since May 2012
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 1.0118, 1.0010, 0.9902
- Resistance: 1.0185, 1.0239, 1.0293
The US Dollar extended its advance for a sixth consecutive day, making for the longest string of gains against the Swiss Franc since May 2009. A daily close above the 138.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.0185 exposes the 150% level at 1.0239. Alternatively, a turn below the 123.6% Fib at 1.0118 clears the way for a challenge of the 100% expansion at 1.0010.
Risk/reward considerations argue against entering long with prices in close proximity to resistance. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal suggests taking up the short side is premature. We will remain flat for now, waiting for a more actionable opportunity to present itself.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Rally Extends for Ninth Session
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9987, 0.9841, 0.9660
- Resistance: 1.0132, 1.0313, 1.0604
The US Dollar may be set to push above the parity threshold against the Swiss Franc after prices narrowly breached resistance above the 0.99 figure. A daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1.0132 exposes the 76.4% level at 1.0313. Alternatively, a turn back below the 50% Fib at 0.9887 opens the door for a test of the 38.2% expansion at 0.9841.
Entering long is tempting from a purely technical perspective but we will tactically opt to stand aside. Prices continue to build the longest string of consecutive daily gains in 12 years, warning that positioning may be increasingly stretched. With that in mind, chasing the pair higher seems unattractive at this point.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Seven-Week Support in Focus
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9769, 0.9695, 0.9428
- Resistance: 0.9859, 1.0126, 1.0251
The US Dollar moved sharply lower against the Swiss Franc, issuing the largest decline in two months. A daily close below trend line support at 0.9769 exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9695. Alternatively, a move above the 14.6% Fib at 0.9859 opens the door for a test of the March 12 high at 1.0251.
Prices are wedged too closely between near-term support and resistance levels to justify taking a trade on a long or short side from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will continue to stand aside until a more attractive opportunity presents itself.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Selloff Stalls at Trend Support
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9794, 0.9695, 0.9428
- Resistance: 0.9890, 1.0126, 1.0321
The US Dollar found interim support against the Swiss Franc after issuing the largest daily decline in two months. Near-term resistance is at 0.9890, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 1.0055-126 area (23.6% level, March 12 high). Alternatively, a push below trend line support at 0.9794 clears the way for a challenge of the 23.6% Fib retracement at 1.0251.
The available trading range is too narrow to justify entering a trade on the long or short side from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now, waiting for price action to offer a more compelling opportunity down the road.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Selloff Loses Steam Below 0.95
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9428, 0.9213, 0.8997
- Resistance: 0.9746, 0.9910, 1.0177
The US Dollar is attempting to launch a recovery after finding support below the 0.95 figure against the Swiss Franc. Near-term resistance is at 0.9746, the 14.6% Fibonacciexpansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 0.9910. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib retracementat 0.9428clears the way for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 0.9213.
Positioning is inconclusive at this point, with prices offering no clear-cut and actionable signal to initiate a long or short trade. We will continue to remain on the sidelines for the time being, waiting for a compelling opportunity to present itself.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Consolidating Below 0.98 Mark
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9746, 0.9428, 0.9213
- Resistance: 0.9910, 1.0177, 1.0393
The US Dollar looks poised to continue higher after clearing range resistance below the 0.98 figure against the Swiss Franc. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.9910 exposes the 1.0126-77 area (March 12 high, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a turn back below the 14.6% expansion at 0.9746opens the door for a test of the 0.9428-79 zone (38.2% Fib retracement, April 3 low).
Entering long is tempting from a purely technical perspective. However, we will opt to pass on the setup. The SNB’s erratic approach to monetary policy of late warns of outsized underlying volatility risk in holding CHF exposure. With that in mind, we will stand aside and look for opportunities elsewhere.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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1 Attachment(s)
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Range Top Sub-0.96 Eyed
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9179, 0.9071, 0.8958
- Resistance: 0.9554, 0.9769, 0.9985
The US Dollar continued to push higher against the Swiss Franc, with buyers now taking aim at late May swing highs. A daily close above the 0.9551-54 area (23.6% Fibonacci expansion, trend line) exposes the 38.2% level at 0.9769. Alternatively, a turn below trend line support at 0.9179 clears the way for a test of the May 7 low at 0.9071.
Prices are too close to resistance to justify entering long from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal suggests that taking up the short side is premature. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now.
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1 Attachment(s)
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Move Above 0.97 Signaled
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9641, 0.9572, 0.9524
- Resistance: 0.9712, 0.9770, 0.9829
The US Dollar resumed its move higher against the Swiss Franc, issuing the strongest daily close in three months. Near-term resistance is at 0.9712, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 0.9770. Alternatively, a move back below the 23.6% Fib at 0.9641 opens the door for a challenge of trend line support at 0.9572.
The available trading range is too narrow to justify entering a trade in line with our long-term Euro outlook from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now, waiting for price action to offer a more compelling opportunity down the road.
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1 Attachment(s)
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Buyers Breach 0.98 Figure
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support:0.9770, 0.9712, 0.9641
- Resistance: 0.9829, 0.9900, 1.0016
The US Dollar continues to grind upward against the Swiss Franc, with prices narrowly establishing a foothold above the 0.98 figure. A daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansionat 0.9829 exposes the 76.4% level at 0.9900. Alternatively, a move back below the 50% Fib at 0.9770 clears the way for a test of the 38.2% expansion at 0.9712.
Prices are wedged too closely between near-term support and resistance levels to justify taking a trade on a long or short side from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will continue to stand aside until a more attractive opportunity presents itself.
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1 Attachment(s)
USD/CHF Triangle Breakout Target at 1.1180
Attachment 16471
-There is no change to the previous comments regarding USD/CHF. “USD/CHF has broken out from a 7+ month triangle. The rate has stalled at the year open price. If this breakout is going to lead to a major advance, then the top side of the triangle resistance line may provide support if reached. That line is currently below .98. The triangle breakout objective is 1.1182.”
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1 Attachment(s)
USDCHF Price Action Analysis - 50.0% Fibo resistance level to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing
W1 price is located above 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bullish with secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 0.9660 and Fibo resistance level at 1.0328. The price is breaking 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 0.9997 to above with the bullish triangle pattern was formed for the ascending trend to be continuing.
Attachment 19003
If the price will break Fibo support level at 0.9660 so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.0328 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with good possible breakout of the price movement.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Trend:
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1 Attachment(s)
Forecast for The Week - levels for USD/CHF: bearish breakdown
USD/CHF: bearish breakdown. Daily price is on bearish breakdown with 0.9571 key support level and descending triangle pattern to be broken to below.
Attachment 19989
- if the price breaks 1.0091 resistance so the price will be reversed to the bullish market condition;
- if the price breaks 0.9571 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing;
- if not so the price will be moved within the channel.
Resistance |
Support |
1.0091 |
0.9571 |
1.0299 |
N/A |
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1 Attachment(s)
USD/CHF Rally? It Just MAY
USD/CHF
Weekly
Attachment 20943
-USD/CHF followed through on last week’s key reversal. The low is right at a 5 year trendline. In fact, this trendline crosses the lows from May 2014 and May 2015. As noted over at the daily section, “this week’s low is about as far as USD/CHF can go if price action from the November high is a wedge. Failure to hold here would risk weakness to the May 2015 low near .9070. Exceeding wedge resistance (currently mid-.9800s) would bolster bullish prospects.”
-Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF.
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USD/CHF by Brexit Referendum Final Results: breakout with bullish reversal
USD/CHF : 238 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results
Attachment 21888
H4 intra-day price is breaking 200 SMA t above for the bullish breakout: the price is testing 15-day high at 0.9775 for the bullish reversal to be continuing.
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USD/CHF Daily Technicals - correction to the possible bearish reversal
Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish condition: the price is breaking Senkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator to below for the bearish reversal. If the price breaks 0.9710 support level so the bearish reversal will be started, if not so the price will be on ranging condition waiting for direction.
Attachment 22780
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Swissy Pops, but Still in Range
Over the past two days the US Dollar has seen an aggressive bid as hawkish Fed comments have prodded the market higher. This rallied USD/CHF right up to the bottom of the short-term resistance zone that we looked at last week. This could potentially open the door for short positions, but traders would likely want to investigate the risk-reward behind the setup to ensure that they’re comfortable: And perhaps more to the point, the trader would want to be comfortable fading a move that could have significant continuation potential, as the Federal Reserve has displayed a persistent pattern of hawkishness throughout 2016 that may continue to drive the dollar higher until we see some form of FOMC dovishness enter the equation.
Attachment 23643
For traders looking to play the short-term range by selling near-term resistance, there’s approximately 110 pips down to the top of the short-term support zone at .9682. This would mean a stop of less than 55 pips can offer a 1-to-2 risk-reward ratio, which would mean that traders would be able to wedge stops at or below the .9850 level in the pair. And while this wouldn’t get above the swing-high from August 31st, it could give traders a chance to get a stop above the price action swings from earlier in August.
Perhaps more interesting is the longer-term range; and if this strong Dollar theme on the back of hawkish Fedspeak can continue, this level may come into play in the not-too-distant future. The level at .9949 is extremely interesting, as this is the 61.8% retracement of the 2010 high to the 2011 low in the pair; and more-to-the-point, this set swing-high resistance in both May and July.
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A break above 0.9840 signals increasing bullish pressure, at that point in time the market is breaking out of asymmetrical triangle.
https://charts.mql5.com/12/744/usdch...ital-ltd-2.png
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Technical Weekly: Is USD/CHF the Tell?
USD/CHF
Weekly (LOG)
Attachment 25391
“Since trading to a 6+ year high, USD/CHF has slowly declined. Broad upside potential is possible as long as price is above the 2011-2014 trendline. The trendline is near .9850 on log scale and just above .9700 on arithmetic. The topside of the wedge is worth knowing near 1.0450 (line off of 2012 and 2015 highs). Essentially, the wedge barriers are all I care about…all else is noise.” I care about where this week’s low was because it’s at former resistance from the 2012 high and June 2016 high. Former resistance providing support is bullish...so I’m bullish.
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USD/CHF Key Levels are .9960 and 1.0205/20
Daily
Attachment 25818
-Since finding low at the 200 day average and September 2016 high, Swissie has rebounded but March is just around the corner. This is interesting because USD/CHF has topped on 3/11 and 3/10 the last 2 years…at just about the same price! Near term, pay attention to the 1.0020 (now) for support. If USD/CHF is going to stretch into 1.0200 before putting in a top (2 equal legs up at 1.0221), then I’d expect a turn higher now.
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Can USD/CHF Rally While US and Korean Tensions are High?
What stands out to me is the recent downtrend for January 2017 through July 2017. During this period, the markets have been in risk-on mode yet we have seen overwhelming USD weakness creating the 900 pip downtrend for USD/CHF.
Attachment 28076
Additionally, within this downtrend it appears we have a W-X-Y pattern where the ‘X’ wave is a triangle pattern. We know from Elliott Wave theory that triangles precede the terminal wave of a particular pattern. Therefore, the higher probability move is USD/CHF moving higher to retrace a significant portion of the 2017 down trend.
Bottom line, the .9438 low is a key level to maintain a bullish bias against. The upper green resistance line is the next level of resistance on a sustained move higher.
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout
The U.S. Dollar has had a rather rough 2017. In a down-trend that’s seen as much as -12.3% of the U.S. Dollar’s value erased, even while the Fed talks up additional rate hikes, few currencies have been able to keep pace with the Greenback’s declines. After coming into the year trading above the 1.0300 level, USD/CHF has seen as much as 925 pips taken-out as the pair has driven-lower.
Attachment 28813
But after running into support in mid-July around the .9433 level (the 2016 low), the declines have slowed as USD/CHF has built into a rather volatile range-bound pattern. Resistance has begun to build around the .9773 level, and we’ve seen multiple iterations of resistance show-up here; each rebuking USD/CHF’s upward advance.
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Ichimoku Charts: EURCHF daily breakout with the bullish reversal
Ichimoku does a fabulous job of showing trend followers which trends are worth joining, and if nothing else, which trendsnot to fight. Currency, Swiss Franc weakness aligns with that description as CHF continues to fall aggressively against a handful of currencies, and Ichimoku has highlighted breaking down conditions for the last handful of trading sessions.
Attachment 30859
EUR/CHF is recovering from a sharp pullback, thanks to the strengthening of haven currencies like the Swiss Franc in early February. Given the strong trend was seen on the chart, traders should be looking for signs of trend continuation higher.
Per Ichimoku, the lagging line (current candle close regressed 26-periods) is a key signal that the Bullish momentum is back. However, in addition to lagging line above price, traders that utilize Ichimoku also look to the lagging line in relation to the cloud. A lagging line break above the cloud, which is plotted forward 26-periods and discussed in detail in the
Adding RSI(5) to Ichimoku shows a momentum blast to the highest level since the trend accelerated aggressively led by the Euro last summer. Traders can look to the 26-day midpoint, called the Kijun-Sen at 1.1596 as support. A close below the Kijun-Sen could should the battle has yet to be won by the Bulls.
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