Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Technical analysis of Gold for May 21, 2018

Gold price is breaking down below the recent $1,285-$1,295 consolidation. Gold price could see $1,270-75, but the bearish divergence signs continue to warn us that the next big move will be to the upside. I'm a buyer of Gold at the current or lower levels.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...26792b6780.png

Blue lines - bullish divergence warning
Green lines - target levels
Yellow line - medium-term resistance
Red line - short-term resistance

Short-term resistance is at $1,292. I expect Gold price to soon break above it and move towards our first targets of $1,302-$1,304. Next important resistance is at $1,310-13 where I can see the next big trend test. With a break above this level, the price will move towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A weekly close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement will open the way for a bigger move towards $1,425. Gold is at its final stages of the move from the $1,365 level.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Pound returns to politics

Quotes of the GBP/USD slumped to a five-month low as it came under fire on three sides. The lack of a unified position within the conservative party on the basic principles of Brexit has revived political risks, negative statistics on the U.K. continues to reduce the likelihood of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of England in 2018, and, finally, the unrestrained growth of the yield of Treasury bonds pushes up the US dollar. Such an unfavorable background makes the position of the sterling extremely vulnerable, but Forex is good because the situation can be turned upside down in a matter of moments.

Unexpected comments by Theresa May that Britain will still come out of the Customs Union, became a verdict for the pound. A week ago, the market was walking directly opposite rumors, which at that time had some support for the "bulls" on the GBP/USD. Even for a little while. The Prime Minister said that there is no reason for a second referendum on Scotland's independence, although in the North of the United Kingdom there are quite different sentiments. In general, the divide is felt in all politics, not only in the conservative party, which plays against sterling.

The futures market is on the verge of abandoning the idea of raising the REPO rate by 25 bp in 2018. Previously, there was confidence in two acts of monetary tightening, and after the May meeting of the Bank of England, the likelihood of a hike in August were regarded as a fifty-fifty. However, the busy economic calendar for the week to May 25 a priori nominates the pound for the title of the most interesting currency of the five-day period. Bloomberg analysts expect to see April inflation and GDP for the first quarter at the same levels of +2.5% yoy and +0.1% q/q, and also forecast a slowdown in retail sales to a six-month low. At the same time, the BoE in its most recent accompanying documents noted that the second assessment of January-March, in fact, is likely to be the best. If inflation also begins to move away from the target in the direction of 3%, the idea of two acts of monetary tightening in 2018 will rise from the ashes. And if so, then the "bulls" on the GBP/USD after long ordeals will still feel the ground beneath their feet.

Dynamics of the British inflation

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The reason for their optimism can be slowed down and finally, the US dollar. Despite the fact that the news of a truce in the trade war between Beijing and Washington in the form of a temporary cancellation of tariffs for $150 billion imports has benefited the yield of Treasury bonds, however, Bloomberg's median forecast of 3.19% at the end of the year is already close, and the stabilization of the indicator will somewhat curb the enthusiasm of bulls in the USD index. In addition, after a continuous 4-week rally, some of them will probably want to lock in the profit.

Technically, a clear implementation of the "Broadening Wedge" pattern brought the pair's quotes beyond the upward trading channel, and the "bears" - to the operational space, and brought them closer to the target by 88.6% in the "Double Top" pattern at arm's length. It corresponds to the level of 1.32.

GBP/USD daily chart

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...2b74350b44.png

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Daily analysis of USDX for May 23, 2018

The index managed to make a retracement from the Monday's highs, but the 200 SMA remains as a dynamic support in the short-term, where also it has formed a fractal. We should remind that a breakout above 94.10 can open the doors for a testing of the 94.88 level. However, a breakout below the 200 SMA on H1 chart should strengthen the bearish bias.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...46af574791.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.10 / 94.88
H1 chart's support levels: 93.12 / 92.33

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.10, take profit is at 94.88 and stop loss is at 93.30. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Euro and pound fall due to weak data

Data released in the first half of the day on the economy of the euro area and the UK exerted serious pressure on the euro and the British pound, allowing US dollar buyers to further increase their long positions before the publication of the Federal Reserve's protocols, from which many are waiting for signals in the direction of further interest rates .

In the first quarter of this year, the unemployment rate in France rose, indicating a slowdown in the recovery of the euro-zone economy in 2018. According to the report of the statistics agency Insee, the unemployment rate in France in the first quarter of this year rose to 9.2% from 9.0% in the fourth quarter of last year. This happened because of a sharp slowdown in the economy earlier this year.

The euro collapsed after a report came out indicating that the growth of business activity in the euro area in May this year, contrary to all forecasts of economists and ECB representatives, slowed for the fourth consecutive month.

According to a report by research company IHS Markit, the preliminary composite index of supply managers for the euro area in May 2018 was 54.1 points, while economists expected the index to be at 54.8 points.It is important to note that a value above 50 points still indicates an increase in activity.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...54eaa67246.png

This slowdown is not surprising. For example, in Germany, the preliminary index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in May fell to 56.8 points against 58.1 points in May, while it was projected at 57.5 points. The index for the service sector fell to 52.1 points in May against 53.0 points in April.

In general, the composite PMI of Germany dropped to 53.1 points in May, while in April of this year, it was at the level of 54.6 points.

France too, failed to please with good results.

The preliminary composite index of supply managers of the PMI of France fell to 54.5 points in May against 56.9 points in April this year.

As noted above, the British pound went to update the monthly lows paired with the US dollar after it became clear that the annual inflation in the UK in April this year dropped to the lowest level in more than a year.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose only by 2.4% in April this year compared with the same period last year. In March, growth was at 2.5%.

The main reason for the decline in prices, as noted in the ONS report, is the drop in prices for air tickets.

All the data fully coincided with the forecast of economists.

The reaction of the Bank of England, most likely, will not take long. In the near future, representatives of the Central Bank will make a number of statements, based on today's data, and most likely, they will not like the buyers of the British pound slightly.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 25, 2018

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EUR/NZD is now in its final stages of the wave c/ of ii/. Ideally, we will see a minor dip closer to support near 1.6806 before the wave ii/ is complete, but we would not be surprised to see a premature low form for a new rally higher through minor resistance at 1.6958 and, more importantly, above resistance at 1.7061 confirming that the wave iii/ higher to test important resistance at 1.7300 is developing.

R3: 1.7061
R2: 1.6981
R1: 1.6958
Pivot: 1.6915
S1: 1.6883
S2: 1.6846
R3: 1.6806

Trading recommendation: We are looking for a EUR-buying opportunity at 1.6815 or upon a break above 1.6960.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Trading Plan for EUR/USD for May 28, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair finally looks to stage a counter trend rally towards the 1.1950/1.2050 levels from here. In the immediate short term outlook, the pair should be looking to take out the 1.1750 levels, which is short term resistance. Then expect a dip towards the 1.1670/80 levels, before the counter trend rally gains further momentum higher. Please note that the 0.382 fibonacci resistance is seen at the 1.1940/50 levels as projected here. Immediate price support is seen at the 1.1500 levels, which should be the next potential target for bears. Now looking into the wave counts, the EUR/USD pair is still progressing into its 3rd wave of a lesser degree and is expected to carve the wave 4, before dropping lower into the wave 5 within the wave (3) as depicted here. Selling on rallies remains a preferred trading strategy for now.

Trading plan:
Aggressive traders may initiate longs around the 1.1675/1.1700 levels going forward; while conservative traders may remain flat for now and look forward to sell again between the 1.1930 and 1.2050 levels respectively.

Fundamental outlook:
There are no major events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 29, 2018

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The rally from 127.11 became much smaller than we expected and the following break back below 127.11 shifted our count back to the prior preferred count calling for a decline to 125.32 before a possible low of the wave C and (E) is in place.

Short-term resistance is seen at 127.28 and a clear break back above here will be the first indication of a low being in place, but only a break above resistance at 128.54 will confirm that the wave (E) has bottomed and a new long-term rally is starting to develop.

R3: 128.54
R2: 127.71
R1: 127.28
Pivot: 126.93
S1: 126.49
S2: 125.80
S3: 125.32

Trading recommendation: We bought EUR at 127.75 and was stopped out shortly after for a loss of 70 pips. We are looking for a new EUR-buying opportunity, but for now we will only buy upon a break above 127.28.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 30, 2018

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The break below the important support at 1.6670 was unexpected and has forced us to shift our long-term count. This new count still favors a bullish outlook, but sees a very complex corrective structure in the wave ii. From the peak of the wave i at 1.7099 in early February, a double corrective combination has been seen. First, a flat correction as the wave W and then a expanded flat as the wave Y to complete the wave ii. Either the wave ii is complete or very close to completing near after a final spike to just below 1.6653.

In the short-term, a break above the minor resistance at 1.6786 and, more importantly, a break above 1.6903 will confirm that the wave ii has completed and a new impulsive rally in the wave iii is developing above 1.7300.

R3: 1.6903
R2: 1.6828
R1: 1.6786
Pivot: 1.6710
S1: 1.6653
S2: 1.6642
S3: 1.6607

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.6665 was triggered for a loss of 150 pips. We will be looking for a new buying opportunity, but waiting for a break above 1.6786.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 31, 2018

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Wave ii/ likely saw a low with the test of 1.6624. We still need to see a break above the resistance-line near 1.6734 and more importantly a break above minor resistance at 1.6764 to add confidence in our view that a low likely is in place. As long as minor resistance at 1.6764 is able to cap the upside, we could still see another attack towards the downside, but the downside potential seems very limited from here.

A break above minor resistance at 1.6764 will target the more important resistance at 1.7062 and above here will confirm that wave iii/ to above 1.7300 is developing.

R3: 1.6903
R2: 1.6829
R1: 1.6764
Pivot: 1.6705
S1: 1.6683
S2: 1.6656
S3: 1.6624

Trading recommendation:
We will buy a break above minor resistance at 1.6764 and if done place our stop at 1.6620.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 01, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 1.2961.

The USD/CAD pair will continue to rise from the level of 1.2914. The support is found at the level of 1.2914, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 1.2914, while immediate resistance is seen at 1.3021. Accordingly, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the high at 1.2914. So, buy above the level of 1.2914 with the first target at 1.3021 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 1.3049. Also, the level of 1.3049 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the USD/CAD pair to climb from 1.2914 to 1.3049 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD pair breaks through the support level of 1.2914, a further decline to 1.2849 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin for June 04, 2018

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If we look at the 4-hour chart, we see that Bitcoin has hit the dynamic support Exponential 100-period Moving Average by Close (near a downward sloping channel). It seems that BTC is going down to test the lower channel and this has been already confirmed too by divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator and the price. A long as this Cryptocurrency does not break out and closes above the 7,754.45 level, the bias of the Bitcoin price is still bearish.

(Disclaimer)

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

The trade war holds the

The Australian dollar was marked by an impressive spurt due to an increase in global appetite for risk after the release of data on the US labor market, the release of strong statistics on retail sales and optimistic forecasts of the OECD. The authoritative organization believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin to raise the main interest rate at the end of 2018 against the background of acceleration of average wages and inflation. GDP will grow by 2.9% this year and by 3% next year, unemployment will decrease to 5.4% in 2018 and to 5.3% in 2019. OECD believes that the main reasons for strong economic growth in Australia will be favorable the conjuncture of the commodity market and strong external demand.

The optimism of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development is not shared by the futures market, which, on the contrary, has shifted the expectations of the first increase in the cash rate since 2016 from the current 1.5% to the second half of 2019. Along with unfavorable internal factors in the form of sluggish labor and inflation, leaving much to be desired (unlike the main developed countries, unemployment in Australia is far from full employment (5%), investors are apprehensive about the trade wars, the rise in the cost of borrowing in the United States and the Italian political crisis. The shift in the timing of the start of the normalization of the monetary policy of RBA, along with the worsening global appetite for risk, put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Dynamics of MSCI EM and the probability of increasing the cash rate

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One of the main problems of the "Aussie" is connected with the growth of the yield of US treasury bonds against the background of expectations of raising the Federal Reserve rate on federal funds to 2.5% within 12 months. This circumstance, coupled with the unwillingness of the RBA to change anything in the field of monetary policy, allows Morgan Stanley to recommend its clients to sell the AUD/USD. The yield differential between the 10-year Australian and American bonds is -15 bp, with an average value of the indicator for the last five years at +68 bpts. Such a situation on the debt market deprives the "Aussie" of support from carry traders who prefer to invest in assets of developing countries.

Additional pressure on the "Aussie" poses the risks of a trade war. The US is going to pause it, then revive the idea of import duties on steel and aluminum due to the intractability of its trading partners from Canada, Mexico and the EU, they openly shout about military actions. Donald Trump on his Twitter account said if you one $800 billion annually, there is no point in fearing a trade war. Under US pressure, China could reduce purchases of goods and services from Australia, which will negatively affect its economy. However, short-term strong statistics on retail sales, GDP and moderate optimism of the RBA may contribute to the correction of AUD/USD.

Technically, the return of the pair's quotations to the boundaries of the long-term upward trading channel will increase the risks of implementing the Bat pattern with a target of 88.6%.

AUD/USD, daily chart

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...52483b6957.png

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

The growth of the UK economy resumed

Weak data on the euro area in the first half of the day hurt the European currency, which again failed to gain the right move to get beyond the large resistance levels paired with the US dollar, which were formed yesterday.

The report on the budget deficit of France partially supported the euro only.

According to the data, the budget deficit of France for the first four months of this year decreased compared to the same period in 2017.

Thus, the budget deficit amounted to 54.3 billion euros at the end of April this year against 57.9 billion euros at the end of April 2017.

As noted in the report of the Ministry of Finance, the deficit was reduced as a result of a sharp decrease in costs, as well as the recapitalization of energy companies. It should be noted that tax revenues have also decreased. As I noted above, retail sales in the euro area were the main reason for the decline in the European currency in the first half of the day.

According to the data, in April of this year, retail sales in the euro area grew by only 0.1% compared to March, where data were revised up to a growth of 0.4%. Compared to the same period in 2017, retail sales grew by 1.7% against growth by 1.5% in 2017. A weak sales report is likely to affect the eurozone's GDP in the second quarter of this year, which will have a negative impact on the European currency in the medium term.

Today, for the first time, a new Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, delivered a speech before the senate, who said that the main economic indicators will be achieved not through a strict economy, but through economic growth, which will also reduce public debt.

Conte also said that Italy will introduce a minimum hourly wage and universal basic income. He also noted that the taxation system will be simplified and become fairer.

As for the technical picture, it did not change much in comparison with the morning forecast. The pressure on the euro is maintained, which gradually returns the trading instrument to important levels of support in the area of 1.1620.

The British pound grew strongly against the US dollar after a report that showed that activity in the UK services sector grew in May this year, giving a good boost to economic growth after weakening at the beginning of the year.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...6971b3cd23.png

According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers for the service sector in May rose to 54.0 points from 52.8 points in April. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Gold monitors the Fed

Having closed in the red zone for two months in a row, gold begins to rise from the ashes amid increasing rumors that the 6-week US dollar rally has come to an end. The escalation of trade tensions with China, Mexico, and Canada on the part of Washington testifies to the interest of the US administration in the weakness of its own currency. It was such speculation in the market during the height of the trade wars in the 1990s and 2000s that lowered the USD index by 20% and 12%. According to TD Securities, already in the fourth quarter of the precious metal will exceed the mark of $ 1400 per ounce, which was last seen in 2013. The company forecasts an average price of $ 1375 in October-December.

Dynamics of gold and dollar

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The gradual decline in political risks in Italy after the announcement of the new Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte that the issue of the republic's exit from the eurozone is not on the agenda, as well as rumors about China's readiness to increase US imports of agricultural and energy goods by $ 70 billion in response to the abolition of tariffs The US reduced the demand for safe haven assets. Does not find gold support and in the physical asset market. According to authoritative sources Bloomberg, who wished to remain anonymous, purchases of precious metals by India in May fell to 77.6 tons (-39% m / m). According to the results of the third month of the spring of 2017, imports amounted to 126.2 tons. In January-May of this year, the figure fell to 289.3 tons (-42% y / y). One of the reasons is the weakness of the rupee, which has depreciated by 5% against the US dollar since early 2018. Dynamics of gold in rupees and dollars

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However, if during the rest of the year the world economy synchronizes its growth, including thanks to the restoration of GDP in the eurozone, then the forces of dollar "bulls" will begin to melt before our eyes, which will support both rupee and Indian imports. An indicative example is the second half of 2017, when talks about the normalization of monetary policy by central banks-competitors of the Federal Reserve made from the American currency an outsider G10.

It is possible that the gold could rush up after the euro got rid of political chains already now, however, the offensive movement of the bulls on XAU / USD is holding back the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 13. The futures market gives a 94% probability of raising the federal funds rate to 2%, and precious metals traditionally fall before the historic meetings of the Fed, so that after them, take off thanks to the implementation of the "sell on the rumor, buy on facts" principle. Judging by the actual for 2016-2017 templates, it makes sense to form long positions on gold immediately after the announcement of the verdict of the Federal Reserve.

Technically, the "bulls" leave no attempts to withdraw quotes from the descending channel, take the resistance by $ 1302 per ounce and activate the "Crab" pattern. If they succeed, the chances of achieving a target of 161.8% will increase. It corresponds to $ 1,350. On the contrary, a successful support test at $ 1,288 will open the way for the "bears" to the south as part of the "Expanding Wedge" pattern. Gold, daily chart

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

The dollar continues to weaken before the meeting of the Federal Reserve

The dollar declines at the trading session in Europe against almost all major currencies. The main reason for this, in our opinion, is the reduction in expectations that the Fed will decide this year to raise interest rates four times.

The exchange rate of the American currency is gradually decreasing in the wake of a similar drop in the hopes of market players that the currency wars launched by Donald Trump will exert pressure on economic growth both within the States and the entire world economy. In addition, the slowdown in the first quarter of the country's GDP growth and the stagnation of inflationary pressures began to shake the hopes of investors that the regulator will go on increasing interest rates four times this year.

At the same time, the chances of the euro significantly increased. According to the latest data, CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year, reaching close to the 2.0% target set by the ECB. This news, as well as the possible preservation of the growth rate of the region's economy, which the GDP data will have to signal today, may allow the Euro-currency to continue a more confident recovery. It is projected that in annual terms the eurozone's GDP will remain at the same level, 2.5%, and its quarterly value will keep the growth rate 0.4%. If the data does not disappoint, it will be possible to expect a noticeable growth of the single currency, and this is most likely to be observed in the eurodollar pair, as now the changes in the prospects for the ECB monetary policy are marked.

An additional stimulus to the growth of the euro could be the G-7 summit, where current conflicts can be resolved and new agreements reached, which can reduce the degree of tension and the probability of expanding trade wars. Although such a probability exists, it is unlikely that Donald Trump will seriously retract. Therefore, this growth in hopes may turn out to be short-lived.

Forecast of the day:

EURUSD is trading at the level of 1.1830. Positive data from the euro area's GDP may push the pair up to 1.1900, but for this it needs to overcome the 1.1830 mark and gain a foothold above it.

The GBPUSD pair has overcome the level of 1.3450 on the wave of "weakness" of the US dollar. It is likely that before the Fed meeting to be held next week, the pair will receive support and grow to 1.3550.

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Trump and the Big Seven: Did not reach an agreement

Trump and the Big Seven: They did not reach an agreement.

On Friday and Saturday, June 8-9, Canada hosted the G-7 summit. Despite the large number of issues on the agenda, the issue is really only one, it's the main one: the new fees that Trump introduces against the US trade partners - against China and Mexico - and against the US allies - Canada and European countries.

The outcome of the first day of the summit is short: they did not agree. There are no joyful media reports about a "breakthrough" in the main issue. All the efforts of the participating countries turned out to somehow sign the final text - it must be signed before the middle of the Saturday, June 9, as Trump announced in advance that he would fly early to Hong Kong for a meeting with the head of North Korea.

All media write that everything could have ended even worse-the refusal of countries to sign the final text - and this is actually a complete collapse of the group of seven.

Let's note an interesting turn of the plot around Russia. Trump, even before the summit, to all the other leaders of the Seven, unexpectedly said that it was necessary to return Russia to the Seven (that is, to the G8, respectively). Trump's proposals were quickly rejected by the leaders of Germany and Britain, but Italy supported it. Very quickly, literally within one or two hours, Putin's spokesman Peskov said that the Kremlin (read - Putin) is not interested in returning to the G8 - "we are more interested in developing other formats." (On this day, Putin met with the leader of China, Xi Jinping).

At the very meeting of the Group of Seven, Trump did not raise the topic of Russia's accession to the Group of Eight. At the same time, it was stated that "all European countries in the Group of Seven are against the return of Russia - until the conflict is settled in Ukraine" (that is, Italy was promptly "persuaded"). Still, we note that Germany and Sweden and Finland agreed to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline - which was opposed by Trump ... (this is not about the Group of Seven, but important for the overall picture).

The result is this: the General Statement of the Group of Seven will most likely be signed - but there is no main text in the text - a decision on the trade dispute over the new Trump duties. At the same time, the EU is preparing an introduction in July of reciprocal duties on goods from the United States. The last attempt to agree - Merkel's proposal to convene a "forum" specifically on the issue of trade conflicts.

How will this affect the markets? I do not think that we will have a noticeable gap at the opening on Monday. But I do not see any reason for rapid growth.

EURUSD - closing day and week.

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

AUD/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

AUD/USD is approaching its support at 0.7560 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where we expect to see a bounce, causing the price to rise to its resistance at 0.7659 (61.8% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 9.6% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

Buy above 0.7560. Stop loss 0.7513. Take profit at 0.7659.

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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 19, 2018

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Our short-term expectations for EUR/NZD was spot on. First, we saw a minor corrective set-back to 1.6671 (we were looking for 1.6676) before moving higher to 1.6795 (we were looking for a rally into the 1.6768 - 1.6793 area to complete the first impulsive rally of the 1.6567 low. With this five wave rally complete with the test of 1.6795 we will be looking for a correction in wave ii/ into the 1.6652 - 1.6679 area before moving higher in wave iii/ towards at least 1.7047.

R3: 1.6842
R2: 1.6817
R1: 1.6794
Pivot: 1.6758
S1: 1.6728
S2: 1.6695
S3: 1.6671

Trading recommendation:
We will sell EUR here at 1.6772 and place our stop at 1.6845. We will take profit and buy EUR at 1.6680

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 20, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...9c9dc2a5f4.png

Wave i/ extended higher to a peak at 1.6831 before letting wave ii take over for a correction lower to at least the low of wave four of one lesser degree at 1.6671. This is very close to the 61.8% corrective target of wave i/ seen at 1.6667. Once this correction is complete near the 1.6667 - 1.6671 area, we will be looking for wave iii/ higher to at least 1.7086.

Short-term, we expect minor resistance at 1.6766 to be able to cap the upside for the decline into the 1.6667 - 1.6671 area to complete wave ii/.

R3: 1.6830
R2: 1.68.12
R1: 1.6788
Pivot: 1.6766
S1: 1.6729
S2: 1.6700
S3: 1.6680

Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 1.6772 and we will move our stop +revers lower to 1.6815. We will take profit and buy EUR at 1.6680.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis of Gold June 21, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...b192c6e683.jpg

If We look at the Daily Charts from Gold, We can see clearly they moving in Weekly Up Slope Channel, and now they have a retracement to the down side as long as they not breakout and close above the 1304.93 Gold will going down 1236.09 as their Support level.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 22, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...c69d4a9c32.png

The minor correction we expected from 1.6921 moved slightly lower than expected and spiked down to 1.6806, but that does not change our outlook for a new impulsive rally soon towards 1.7133 and above.

Short-term, we could see another minor spike to near 1.6806 before the next move higher should be expected.

Only an unexpected break below support at 1.6737 will question our bullish outlook.

R3: 1.7025
R2: 1.6964
R1: 1.6933
Pivot: 1.6890
S1: 1.6837
S2: 1.6784
S3: 1.6737

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6815 with our stop placed at 1.6730. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6806 or upon a break above 1.6933 and use the same stop at 1.6730.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 25, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...05e27975a2.png

We continue to look for more upside here. A break above minor resistance at 1.6933 will call for a continuation higher towards 1.7133 as the next minor upside target on the way higher. Support is now seen at 1.6806 and is expected to be able to protect the downside for a break above 1.6933.

R3: 1.7025
R2: 1.6964
R1: 1.6933
Pivot: 1.6890
S1: 1.6837
S2: 1.6806
S3: 1.6784

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6815 with our stop placed at 1.6730. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6806 or upon a break above 1.6933 and use the same stop at 1.6730.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Trading Plan for Crude Oil for June 26, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...1a41996ea7.jpg

Technical outlook:
A medium-term time frame has been presented (4 hours) here, and the most probable wave counts have been labelled here. It looks to be like a bearish resumption trade setup is getting ready in Crude Oil now. Let us understand the wave counts from sub 73.00 levels. The drop from 73.00 to almost 63.50 has been an impulse (unfolding into 5 waves) as labeled here. The entire drop can be labeled as wave (1). The subsequent rally then unfolded into a probable Zigzag (5-3-5) corrective wave structure, labeled as a-b-c here. Also note that the termination of the wave (2) is just at Fibonacci 0.618 resistance, around 69.50 levels, which triggered a sharp reversal yesterday. if this ave structure holds to be good, we should witness a continued drop lower towards 58.00 and 48.00 respectively. Ideally, prices should now stay below 73.00 levels going forward.

Trading plan:
Remain short now, stop above 73.00, target 58.00 at least.

Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for US Consumer confidence numbers to be out today at 10:00 AM EST.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis on Gold for June 27, 2018

Gold price remains in a bearish trend. Price is approaching important weekly support levels and at least a short-term bounce is approaching. Gold price has weekly oversold signals, warning not to be bearish at current levels. We have no reversal confirmation yet, but we believe that soon we will see the reversal. The key level is at $1,268.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...334ebb8805.png

Green line - long-term support

Red line - long-term resistance

Blue arrows - reversal points when Stochastic was oversold.

Gold price is challenging the weekly cloud support and the weekly upward sloping trend line. All the previous times the stochastic was so oversold, Gold rallied. Our time frame is for the next 1-2 months and therefore our risk tolerance should be similar to the downside. Our target remains new highs above $1,400.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 28, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...43115c9e2d.png

Overview:
The USD/CAD pair broke the resistance that turned into strong support at the level of 1.3247 since days. The level of 1.3247 coincides with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci which is expected to act as a major support on the H1 chart today. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3247. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling an upward trend, and the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the area of 1.3247/1.3300. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.3247 - 1.3300. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci (1.3247) with the first target at the level of 1.3387 in order to test the first resistance in the same time frame. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.3387, the market will probably continue towards the next objective at 1.3442. The daily strong support is seen at 1.3247. Thus, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.3243, then this scenario may be invalidated.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 29, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...5d1567fa48.png

The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0055 (the double top on the H4 chart).


*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Technical analysis of Gold for July 03, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...af7032629c.jpg

From the Daily Charts we know the Gold bias is still in a Bullish Condition, this can be seen by the Gold still moving in an up Channel event. Now Gold has a correction and tries to test the nearest Support level at 1,235.72 but it seems that in a few days Gold will be back to its previous bias (Bull). This is already confirmed by the Stochastic Oscilator now at the Oversold level and preparr to go up above the 20 level, so the next few days ahead it seems the Gold will go back to the previous bias (Bull). (Dsiclaimer)

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 04, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...c1b73e117f.png

Overview:
Last week, the AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7474 towards 0.7348. Now, the price is set at 0.7371. The resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7426 and 0.7474. Moreover, the price area of 0.7474 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7426 and 0.7257. If the AUD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7426, the market will decline further to 0.7474 as the first target. This would suggest the bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7302 so as to test the daily support 2. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7474, then this scenario may become invalidated.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 05, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d98bfa9d84.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as French 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Retail PMI, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Unemployment Claims, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1718.
Strong Resistance:1.1711.
Original Resistance: 1.1700.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1689.
Target Inner Area: 1.1661.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1633.
Original Support: 1.1622.
Strong Support: 1.1611.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1604.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 06, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ebf705ef7d.png

The NZD/USD (kiwi) pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6840. This week, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6840 to trade around the 0.6775 level. This level of 0.6840 coincides with the major resistance today. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6840 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6840/0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6840, then this scenario may be invalidated.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 09, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...2f17d9e7fd.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Sentix Investor Confidence, and German Trade Balance. The US will also release the Economic Data such as Consumer Credit m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1808.
Strong Resistance:1.1801.
Original Resistance: 1.1790.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1779.
Target Inner Area: 1.1751.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1723.
Original Support: 1.1712.
Strong Support: 1.1701.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1694.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Wave analysis of EUR / USD. The euro continues to adhere to the working scenario

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...30f0be9d0f.png

Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Friday, the currency pair EUR / USD added about 50 percentage points, remaining thus in the stage of construction of the proposed wave 3, c, 4. If this is the case, then the quotes will continue to rise with targets near the mark of 1.1856, which corresponds to 100.0% of Fibonacci, and higher. The wave c can assume a pronounced 5-wave structure, which allows one to assume the growth of the pair to area 20 of the figure. The construction of wave 5 of the downward trend section is being postponed for an indefinite period.

The objectives for the option with sales: 1.1440 - 323.6% of the Fibonacci of the highest order
1,1118 - 423.6% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:
1.1866 - 100.0% of Fibonacci
1.2072 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair EUR / USD continues to rise within wave 3, c, 4. Thus, on July 9 I recommend to remain in purchases with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1856 and 1.2072, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. Return to sales, I recommend after receiving confirmation of the completion of the entire wave 4. At the moment there is no sign of the completion of the construction of this wave.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Brent disobeyed the president

Interruptions in supplies in Libya, Venezuela, Canada and Norway, Iran's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, and some weakness of the US dollar after the release of the US labor market report for June allowed the bulls for Brent and WTI to continue the rally. If oil can update the May highs, the road in the direction of $ 83-85 per barrel will be opened. According to Tehran, the aim of restraining the price of black gold tweets of Donald Trump, in fact, can bring the North Sea grade to the psychologically important mark of $ 100 per barrel. Who is bigger? Sanford C. Bernstein & Co draws attention to the reduction in oil companies' stocks by an average of 30% since the beginning of 2000 and the increase in urban population in Asia by 1 billion over the next two decades. As a result, the demand for cars and gasoline will rise sharply, which will launch a new super cycle on black gold and allow it to grow to $ 150 per barrel.

The US president demands from his military allies (primarily from Saudi Arabia) to increase production to 2 million bpd, knowing full well that the OPEC decisions on the curtailment of the production of "bulls" for Brent and WTI at the end of June cannot be stopped. The states are exerting pressure on buyers of Iranian oil, and if their plan to reduce exports from this Middle Eastern country translates into life, then the market will take 2.5 million bpd. Tehran is the fifth oil producer in the world with a production volume of 3.8 million bpd. The country's leadership claims that it is ready to sell as much black gold as it can.

The support of Brent and WTI is provided by the factor of production reduction in Libya from 1.28 million bpd in February to the current 527 thousand bpd. According to Capital Economics estimates, the market may lose about 2 million bpd from Iran and 1 million bpd from Venezuela, which will widen the deficit and help develop the "bullish" conjuncture of the black gold market.

At first glance, instead of putting pressure on OPEC, Donald Trump could spur the activity of American producers. For a long time, the oil market was living in tug-of-war conditions between those working on reducing the cartel's output and companies from the States that used price increases to hike their own production and simultaneously hedge the risks. They let the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes grow (+5 to 863 in the week of July 6), and the Energy Information Administration forecasts an increase in production to a record 11.8 million bpd, no problems with the infrastructure have been canceled. For example, in the Perm basin in 2019 will produce 1 million bpd more than its pipes can afford to pump.

Extraction and power of pipelines

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...498247485f.png

The hand to help the "bulls" for Brent and WTI is fixing profit to the US dollar after the publication of disappointing statistics on US unemployment and the average wage. The first indicator increased from 3.8% to 4%, the second did not reach the forecasts of experts from Bloomberg (+ 0.2% vs. + 0.3% m / m)

Technically, a breakthrough of resistance at $ 79.5 and $ 80.5 per barrel will open the "bulls" along Brent road to the north in the direction of the target for 127.2% and 161.8% for the AB = CD pattern.

Brent, daily chart

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...498337bc3d.png

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Trading Plan for EUR/USD for July 12, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...6dbf50bea5.jpg

Technical outlook:

The hourly EUR/USD chart presented here indicates that the currency pair is dropping in a corrective manner since printing highs at the 1.1790 levels recently. At this point in time, prices are finding support at a past resistance turned support zone around the 1.1660/70 levels. According to the Fibonacci extensions displayed here, it remains quite possible for the pair to drop through the 1.1650/30 levels to find further support before turning higher. The price support is seen at the 1.1590 levels, followed by the 1.1530 levels, respectively, while interim resistance is seen at the 1.1790 levels. Most probable direction is to push higher at least one last time towards 1.1850 and above, before reversing lower again. Please note that in the medium term, till the prices remain below the 1.2150 levels, bears shall be in complete control.

Trade plan:

Aggressive traders, now look to buy again between the 1.1630/60 levels, with stop below 1.1550 and target above 1.1850.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for USD CPI at 0800 AM EST today.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 13, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d1_source!.png

Overview: The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6840 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement). This week (from 9 to 13 July 2018), the pair has dropped from the level of 0.6840 to trade around the 0.6775 level. This level of 0.6840 coincides with the major resistance today. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6840 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6840/0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6843, then this scenario may be invalidated.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin For July 16, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...c25554b516.jpg

The Bitcoin at the 4-hour charts looks clearly moving in a Bearish bias. This can be confirmed by the price still moving in a down slope channel and the Exponential Moving Average period 21 still bellow the Linear Weighted Moving Average period 55, as long as the price does not break out and close above the 6,360.51, it is highly likely the bias from this cryptocurrency will still be in a Bearish condition.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 17, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...d75fdb788e.jpg

When the European market opens, there's no Economic Data will be released from the Euro Zone, but The US will release the Economic Data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, and Capacity Utilization Rate, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1767.
Strong Resistance:1.1760.
Original Resistance: 1.1749.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1738.
Target Inner Area: 1.1710.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1682.
Original Support: 1.1671.
Strong Support: 1.1660.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1653.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 18, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ed51ac55df.jpg

In Asia, Japan today will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data such as Beige Book, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 113.54.
Resistance. 2: 113.32.
Resistance. 1: 113.10.
Support. 1: 112.82.
Support. 2: 112.60.
Support. 3: 112.38.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 19, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...00f3dec833.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1701.
Strong Resistance:1.1694.
Original Resistance: 1.1683.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1672.
Target Inner Area: 1.1644.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1616.
Original Support: 1.1605.
Strong Support: 1.1594.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1587.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 20, 2018

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...15a38ecb58.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US today will not release any Economic Data, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1711.
Strong Resistance:1.1704.
Original Resistance: 1.1693.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1682.
Target Inner Area: 1.1654.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1625.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.