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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 19, 2021
AUD / USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar fell slightly under the strengthening of the US currency. Today, the major currency pairs are undergoing a correction as the US dollar is weakening and counter dollar currencies are strengthening. The growth of the "Australian" today has already blocked yesterday's decline in the Asian session. After the correction is completed with the price overcoming the target level of 0.7641, it will most likely increase the fall to the target of 0.7465, which is approaching the Kruzenshtern line. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone and this circumstance will restrain the growth of the currency.
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Based on the four-hour scale, the Marlin oscillator makes its way into the growth zone, strengthening the previously formed convergence. The end of the corrective growth is expected on the Kruzenshtern line in the area of 0.7743. Growth is also possible above the target level of 0.7770. The nature of the development of the oscillator indicates the completion of the correction tomorrow.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...7b_source!.jpg
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 20, 2021
USD/JPY
Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair rose by 20 points without working out the trend line of the price channel of the higher timeframe (104.20). This creates a prerequisite for a repeated attack of the price on this resistance in the near future. The price is higher than the balance indicator line. If the quote moves below the signal level 103.57, which coincides with the support of the Kruzenshtern Indicator line (blue), it will create a condition for the implementation of an alternative scenario where there will be a decline to the level of 103.00.
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On the four-hour scale chart, the price breaks under the Kruzenshtern line. The Marlin Oscillator turns down from the border with the growth territory. A price decline to at least 103.57 is possible, after which we also expect a rapid increase to 104.20.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...19_source!.jpg
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 21, 2021
AUD/USD
Yesterday and this morning, the Australian Dollar rose by almost 80 points. Today, positive data was released on employment. Unemployment in Australia fell from 6.8% to 6.6%, while the share of the economically active population increased from 66.1% to 66.2%. Fixing the price above 0.7770 may lead the dollar to the target level of 0.7905. The Marlin Oscillator, which has moved into the growth zone, pushes the price to this level.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...b8_source!.jpg
On the four-hour scale chart, the price is already fixed above the Kruzenshtern Indicator Line. The price remains to gain a foothold above the reached level of 0.7770. If the price does not succeed and the consolidation occurs under the Kruzenshtern line below the level of 0.7744, the scenario for growth will be cancelled. The price will again pay attention to the target level of 0.7641.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...53_source!.jpg
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. January 22. The euro currency shows its readiness to return to 2.5-year highs.
4-hour timeframe
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...3c_source!.jpg
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: 105.3571
The EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday, January 21, waited for half a day for the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank. And when they were announced, it turned out that there was not much to react to. But more on that below. From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair has consolidated above the moving average line, so the trend on the 4-hour timeframe has changed to an upward trend. So what can we expect now? How is the pound/dollar pair moving? According to the technique, everything now looks like this: there was a downward correction of almost 300 points within the upward trend. Therefore, now is the time to resume the upward trend. Of course, this is still only a hypothesis, but given the continuing weak demand for the US currency and the complete disregard for the fundamental background, this is the conclusion that suggests itself.
Let's go back to the ECB meeting and its results. Here, all the results can be described in one sentence: the regulator left the monetary policy parameters unchanged. None of the traders expected that the ECB at the first meeting in 2021 will change the rate or begin to further increase the quantitative easing program or its "emergency counterpart" - the PEPP program. Thus, the interest rate on loans remained at 0%, on deposits - at -0.5%, and the volume of the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) – at 1.85 trillion euros. Perhaps there is nothing more to say here. The fact that traders reacted to this news with purchases of the euro currency has no connection at all with what is happening. Simply put, this was not the reaction of traders to the ECB meeting. Let's get this straight: 90% of the time, almost any instrument moves either up or down. That is, the upward movement on January 21 may be a simple coincidence. The markets were going to buy the euro currency without the ECB meeting, that's all. There was nothing to react to. The ECB has not made any changes to monetary policy.
Therefore, you can forget about the meeting and focus on the problems of the Eurozone. Because there are now much more of them than, for example, the American economy. The problem of high public debt in the United States is already something of a byword. This problem has been discussed by all experts, economists, and analysts for a couple of decades. However, along with this "unsolvable" problem, the American economy continues to grow and remains in first place in the world. Yes, some studies suggest that in 10 years or so, the Chinese economy may come out on top in the world in terms of size. However, this is still written with a pitchfork on the water. No one knows what will happen in 10 years. Could anyone have predicted the "coronavirus"? Yes, new viruses and diseases appear from time to time on the planet Earth, but who could have predicted that the whole world would be mired in a pandemic for a whole year? And it's not over yet. Thus, we would recommend paying attention to indicators that reflect the state of the economy here and now. The eurozone also has enough debt. They are not so huge, but they are. For example, only the eurozone recovery fund for 750 billion euros will be formed from borrowed funds, which will be returned for several decades. These are the same debts.
But we look at the GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter and see: -2.2% is forecasted in the Eurozone; +4.2% - +4.4% is forecasted in the United States. Thus, despite all the problems, despite the first place in the world in the number of cases of coronavirus, despite the first place in the world in the number of deaths from COVID, despite the lack of a package of assistance to the economy, the unemployed and businesses, it is the American economy that continues to recover after the second quarter of 2020, while the European economy will again shrink. Naturally, this is due to the second "lockdown", which was in the EU, but not in the United States. However, what difference does it make between the economies for such an imbalance in the fourth quarter? The fact remains.
But despite this, the European currency as a whole continues to grow. It is still very difficult to find any reasons for the strengthening of the euro and the fall of the US dollar. We have already talked about the economy. There are no serious geopolitical problems now either in the EU or in the United States. Moreover, it is the European Union that has recently lost part of its "own" territory (Great Britain). There is one less country in the European Union. And not just for one country, but for a country with an economy in the TOP 10 in the world. However, before and after Brexit, the European currency continued to grow. Political problems, crisis? Yes, it was in the States for almost all of 2020. In Europe, there were other problems, but they were successfully resolved. But the European currency can not grow for about 10 months just because of the political crisis in the United States.
Therefore, based on all of the above, we can conclude that the factors that push the euro up and the dollar down do not lie on the surface. First, it may be a speculative factor, which we have already discussed. First, the upward trend began, and it began quite rightly (four types of crises in the US in 2020, which even Joe Biden recently announced). And in recent months, traders buy the euro and get rid of the dollar. The second hypothetical reason may lie in the plane of large players. We have repeatedly said that small traders do not make any weather in the market. Markets are driven by big players. This, of course, is not one or two central banks. There are thousands of them, but still not millions. And their volumes are different. Thus, it is quite possible that in the highest circles they have completely different information that is not available to ordinary traders. Based on this information, transactions for the sale of the dollar can be made. The third possible reason is purely technical. If you look at the monthly timeframe, it becomes clear that the euro currency has been falling in price for 12 years. For a global trend, a period of 10-12 years is the ideal time to complete. Thus, now may be the time for a long-term upward trend in the euro (from 2000 to 2008, the euro rose in price), or it is time for a technical correction to the area of the level of 1.4000. Of course, confirmation of these assumptions will be extremely difficult to obtain. Therefore, as before, we recommend following the trend, and not trying to guess the reversal, especially long-term. It is better to settle for less profit than to lose everything.
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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of January 22 is 70 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2083 and 1.2223. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator may signal a new round of downward correction.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2085
S2 – 1.1963
S3 – 1.1841
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2207
R2 – 1.2329
R3 – 1.2451
Trading Recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in long positions with targets of 1,2207 and 1,2223 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed back below the moving average with a target of 1.2085.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 25, 2021
EUR/USD
As we expected in last Friday's review, the euro settled in the 1.2132/77 range. The trading volumes were similar to those of the previous two days, that is, purchases were indeed closed, but not as intensely as we expected. Today this process may continue, which can be helped by the German IFO indices for January; the forecast for the business climate assumes a decrease in the index from 92.1 to 91.8, the index of current expectations may decrease from 91.3 to 90.6.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...c4_source!.jpg
The daily chart shows the price met the resistance of the balance indicator line and the upper border of the consolidation range of 1.2132/77. The Marlin oscillator is turning to the downside. We are waiting for the price to leave the area under the lower border of the consolidation range and a subsequent attack on the MACD line in the 1.2070 area, getting the price to settle below it opens the 1.1915 target.
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The four-hour chart shows that the 1.2132 level coincides with the MACD indicator line, respectively, the level, like the consolidation range itself, gains strategic importance in the short-term current situation.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 26, 2021
GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound tested support at 1.3648. So far it has been unsuccessful and there are several technical reasons for this; the signal line of the Marlin oscillator met the lower line of its own wedge on the daily chart; on the four-hour chart, the MACD line is located at this price level.
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But Marlin has penetrated the negative area in the four-hour chart, this is a sign that the price would overcome support at 1.3648, probably by today. The target for the decline is the 1.3480 level - the low on December 9 and September 1, 2020.
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The four-hour chart shows that the 1.2132 level coincides with the MACD indicator line, respectively, the level, like the consolidation range itself, gains strategic importance in the short-term current situation.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for January 27, 2021
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Technical outlook:
EURUSD dropped to 1.2108 lows yesterday before finding support again. It is quite possible that the European currency has managed to carve a higher low and bulls are now inclined to extend the counter trend rally towards 1.2250/70 in the near term. The single currency pair is seen to be trading at around 1.2163 levels at this point in writing and is expected to continue pushing higher towards 1.2250/70 levels before resuming lower again.
Immediate resistance remains fixed at 1.2350 mark, while interim support comes in around 1.2053 levels respectively. The recent boundary which is being worked upon is between 1.2350 and 1.2053 and the fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen towards 1.2250 levels respectively (not shown here). High probability remains for a bearish reversal, if prices manage to reach through 1.2250/70 zone. Bears are expected to be back in control until prices stay below 1.2350 highs.
On the flip side, even if prices break above 1.2350 in the near term, upside remains limited and a sharp bearish reversal could be underway. The larger wave structure also remains constructive for bears since the entire rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 seems to be complete. Probability remains high for a drop through 1.1250/1.1300 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement for the above rally.
Trading plan:
Remain short, add more @ 1.2250/70, stop @ 1.2500, target is open.
Good luck!
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 28, 2021
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro's situation developed according to our main scenario without a false upward surge. And the euro was pushed to this scenario by a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, Klaas Knot, by announcing the possibility of lowering the rate to increase inflation. The business media did not believe Knot, because no one doubts the growth of inflation without the influence of the changed rates due to the continuing pumping of markets with unsecured liquidity. Most likely, the ECB is simply trying to hint about the high rate of the euro. One way or another, but the investors reacted unequivocally - they began to sell the euro. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in an optimistic vein regarding the prospects for the economy. He said that the economy has proved to be very resilient to blackouts, it will grow in the second half of the year, and the asset buyback program will continue "as long as necessary" and investors will be warned in advance about the central bank's intention to begin its reduction. This time investors correctly understood Powell's words - if the economy is doing well, then the Fed will issue a "warning" in the foreseeable future. Fourth quarter US GDP, trade balance and new home sales are due today. All indicators are expected to grow.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...c4_source!.jpg
The price stopped at the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. If the price moves below it, under yesterday's low (1.2058), the target opens at 1.1915 - the peak of four local highs: November 9, September 10, August 6, July 31.
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The price settled below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is declining. We are waiting for the price to overcome the signal level of 1.2058 and the succeeding fall of the EUR/USD pair.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 29, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro slightly corrected after the hype of Wednesday's fall, supported by the MACD line on the daily chart. Yesterday's growth was offset by a decline in today's Asian session. It looks like the euro is going to attack the support of the MACD line at 1.2077. Getting the price to settle below this line will further strengthen the euro's decline to the target range of 1.1870-1.1915. Interim target of 1.1980.
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The price is breaking the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Ahead of it there is a range of support at 1.2058/77, leaving it will become a signal to reach the nearest target of 1.1980.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ef_source!.jpg
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 1, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro traded in a limited range last Friday, as it did on Thursday, staying between the MACD indicator line (1.2080) and the reference level of 1.2177 on the daily chart. Here we see that at the moment the Marlin oscillator's indicator line is slightly increasing, which will make it possible for the price to continue consolidating for at least another day. The euro will accelerate its decline only when the price goes under the MACD line, below 1.2080. The first target is 1.1980, then the range is 1.1870-1.1915.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...a8_source!.jpg
The price is also developing above the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart. The 1.2080 level coincides with the lows of January 28 and 20, which makes it more significant. The Marlin oscillator is growing, reaching the border of the territory of positive values. The sideways movement of the euro is likely to continue today.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...fa_source!.jpg
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 2, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro finally decided to overcome the support of the MACD indicator line. The euro fell by 75 points. Now the 1.1980 target is open. The 1.1870-1.1915 range, which is the second target, is just below it. A weak risk of such a decline is seen in the initial stage when forming a price convergence with the Marlin oscillator. But this is still an alternative to today's scenario.
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The situation is completely decreasing on the four-hour chart; the price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of negative values, there is no convergence according to Marlin. Since the price surpassed yesterday's low (1.2056), we are waiting for it to move to the first target of 1.1980.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...4b_source!.jpg
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 3, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro settled below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. This suggests that now the road to a medium-term decline with the 1.1760 target and, probably, below, in the target range of 1.1550/75 is open. The goals are still to be specified.
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But at the moment there is a circumstance that can disrupt the plan to pull down the price to the nearest targets: 1.1980 and 1.1915. This is a sign of the price convergence with the Marlin oscillator. If this convergence is completed and it turns out to be strong, the price will be able to return to the area above the MACD line and then a new downward momentum will be carried over for several more days. In the meantime, the correction is limited by the resistance of the MACD line at 1.2083.
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There are no clear reversal signs on the 4-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is growing in a downward trend zone. The price and the oscillator are growing within a moderate correction. The main scenario - the imminent end of the correction and the price falling to the first target of 1.1980 and to the second target at 1.1915 has higher chances, about 70%.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 4, 2021
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Technical Market Outlook:
The bearish pressure on GBP/USD has increased and the market has broke below the technical support located at the level of 1.3608. This level will now act as an intraday technical resistance. The local low was made at the level of 1.3586, so the next target for them is the intraday technical support located at the level of 1.3519. The market is coming off the overbought conditions and the momentum is weak and negative, pointing down. The key mid - term technical support is seen at the level of 1.3428, but please pay attention to any breakout below the trend line support around the level of 1.3500 first. This might be the first indication of a potential move lower.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.4011
WR2 - 1.3877
WR1 - 1.3788
Weekly Pivot - 1.3646
WS1 - 1.3564
WS2 - 1.3416
WS3 - 1.3342
Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3744 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecasts for GBP/USD on February 5, 2021
GBP/USD
The Bank of England kept its monetary policy at yesterday's meeting, but announced that it does not consider negative rates as a mandatory instrument and will not introduce them without warning at least six months in advance. The verbal attack was successful, the pound jumped 130 points from the day's low, closing the day by 27 points. This morning, inertial growth continues, but it is unlikely to be significant, as in the evening US employment data and forecasts for them are optimistic: the growth of jobs in the non-agricultural sector is expected to 50,000 after December - 140,000. The Marlin oscillator continues to move sideways on the daily chart. The task is the same - to gain a foothold below the 1.3648 level, in order to calmly go to 1.3550 and 1.3500.
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The price went above the MACD line on the four-hour chart this morning, while Marlin is in the growth zone. The price may rise to the local high of 1.3710 before the release of US statistics.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...6a_source!.jpg
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 8, 2021
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar rose by 77 points last Friday, breaking the level of 0.7641. Now, you should wait for the price to go back under this level so that you can start selling again. Today, the important macroeconomic data are not released, and the weakened indicators on the trade balance in Germany are expected tomorrow, which can move European currencies going down even more and along with them the "Australian" will weaken.
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As we can see on the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has almost reached the upper limit of its own descending channel, and here the indicator may linger.
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Based on the four-hour chart, the price is fixed above the indicator lines of the balance and the Kruzenshtern line. The Marlin is at the top but it is turning slightly. It is quite possible that the AUD/USD pair will have enough potential to stay here for a day.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 9, 2021
AUD / USD
On the back of yesterday's pronounced increase in risk appetites given by the large-scale growth of cryptocurrencies - the value of this market for the day increased by 143 billion dollars, which led by bitcoin with a trading volume of 120 billion dollars, and the total capitalization of this market yesterday was 1.316 trillion dollars. Dollars, increased to 1.363 trillion, which strongly affected the market of real national currencies and stock markets: the Australian dollar rose by 26 points, the S & P500 added 0.74%.
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As we can see on the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the descending channel up and is currently preparing to enter the zone of positive values. The price itself went to the target range of 0.7765 / 83 (defined by the peaks of January 21 and 13), after which it can go to storm the January high of January 6, the target of which is slightly higher - 0.7830.
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Based on a four-hour scale, the situation is completely growing: the price rises above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator rises without signs of a reversal. So, the nearest target of the Australian dollar is 0.7765/83.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 10, 2021
AUD / USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar rose by 36 points. There is still much time left to go to work out the target range of 0.7765 / 83. Thus, it is already becoming much more difficult for the "Australian". The Marlin oscillator outlines a reversal from the border with the territory of growth. The price can work out the target range with a declining oscillator, but the growth should slow down, respectively, the goal will be reached only tomorrow.
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Based on the four-hour chart, the Marlin is not pronounced but it is only discharged perhaps before the further growth. But be that as it may, the time for purchases is not suitable, it is only possible to hold previously opened positions.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...ea_source!.jpg
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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NEW ZEALAND ELECTRONIC CARD TRANSACTIONS SLIP 0.4% IN JANUARY
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The total value of electronic card transactions in New Zealand was down a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on month or NZ$24 million in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - following the 19.2 percent spike in December.
Spending in the core retail industries slipped 0.7 percent on month or NZ$39 million.
On a yearly basis, electronic retail card spending was up 1.9 percent - slowing from 3.5 percent in the previous month.
By industry, the movements were: durables, up NZ$34 million (2.1 percent); motor vehicles (excluding fuel), up NZ$3 million (1.7 percent); fuel, down NZ$1 million (0.3 percent); apparel, down NZ$7 million (2.0 percent); and consumables, down NZ$31 million (1.3 percent).
News are provided by
InstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 11, 2021
USD/JPY
The yen has been lingering suspiciously long at 104.62, forming a new consolidation on it. Such consolidation indicates the intention of the market to continue the decline, in this case, the target is to support the embedded line of the price channel in the area of 104.02. The signal for such a breakthrough will be the transition of the price under yesterday's low of 104.42.
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If the price still intends to continue to grow, then it must do it today, overcoming the top of yesterday's 104.85. The Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chat is turning up, this sign preserves the probability of price growth.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...98_source!.jpg
But before reaching the main target of 105.33, the price will need to overcome two previous levels: the already specified 104.85 and 105.05 along the MACD line on H4. It is the MACD line that is now of the greatest importance; if the price cannot overcome it, then a trend reversal will occur with the intention of working out 104.02.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Cryptocurrency for everyone: the oldest bank of US BNY Mellon will conduct operations with digital assets
The cryptocurrency market, after a slight decline, began to strengthen its position again and grow in price. The euphoria after the news from Elon Musk has already faded, but bitcoin continues to grow and on February 11 sets a new historical high, rising by 4% over the past day. The cost of the main cryptocurrency reached the mark of $48.4 thousand. The reason for this growth was the news about the launch of operations with the Bank of New York Mellon and Mastercard cryptocurrencies.
Even though large investment companies in America have already shown interest in cryptocurrency, the US Securities Commission quite categorically considers applications for the ability to conduct operations with digital money. Everyone thought that Visa and Tesla would launch the necessary wave of interest, but few could have predicted that the largest and oldest US bank would start working with cryptocurrency. The financial giant is already developing the necessary software for working with cryptocurrencies, which will be available this year.
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Against the background of this news, the value of bitcoin soared by 4%, which indirectly affected other coins. The cryptocurrency market is steadily growing in price, with small drawdowns, for the second week in a row. Large investors are showing increasing interest in bitcoin, which will become a flagship in the assimilation of the crypto market and global financial institutions. Given that these announcements are of a long-term nature, in the near future we should expect new historical highs in prices for other cryptocurrencies.
The interest of retail and large investors, as well as the development of software for the introduction of crypto coins in global financial institutions, makes the interest in the crypto market more conscious and not spontaneous. In turn, this affects the dynamics of rising and falling prices, price correction and the flow of investment. Together, all these factors can affect the high volatility of the cryptocurrency, which will be the main step in the introduction of these assets in financial transactions at the household level.
Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 02/15/2021
We can absolutely calmly say that the single European currency has actually stood still for several days in a row. Of course it gradually decreased for nearly the entirety of Friday, and it completely won back all these losses closer to the end of the US session. But the scale of these movements, at best, can be called extremely modest. Something in the region of thirty points one way and the other. Which, in general, is not surprising, since the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty on Friday. So there was simply nothing for investors to grab onto.
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Today the situation is somewhat different, as data on retail sales will be published in Europe, which should show zero growth. More precisely, they can show no change in annual terms. And oddly enough, this can be perceived as an extremely positive factor, since the European industry has been declining for twenty-five consecutive months. That is, it has been decreasing since November 2018. The data for December last year will be published today. In general, despite the depressing state of affairs in the European industry, the fact that the recession has stopped already seems like incredible growth, which will contribute to the euro's appreciation. Industrial production (Europe):
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After a short pullback from the resistance point of 1.2150, the EURUSD pair returned to the area of last week's high, while showing interest in growth.
The market dynamics is below average, while local jumps are slipping in the market, which indicates that speculators are on it.
Based on the quote's current location, it is clear that market participants are already practically touching the resistance level of 1.2150, where, given the recent pullback, a regrouping of trading forces could have occurred, which will positively affect the volume of long positions.
Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the quote follows in the structure of the corrective move from the high of the medium-term trend of 1.2349, where, taking into account the recovery, we are about halfway from the high of the trend.
We can assume that the recovery process relative to the corrective move may continue to be present in the market, but in order to do so, the quote needs to stay above 1.2155, which will open the way in the direction of 1.2190, this is the first point of a possible move.
In case the price does not surpass the 1.2155 level on a four-hour period, then a fluctuation along the 1.2110/1.2160 range is not excluded.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments signal a buy, since the quote can be found in the 1.2150 region.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elon Musk continues to manipulate the currency market
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Once again, news from Elon Musk, who has recently become extremely interested in the cryptocurrency market, comes out. Recall that at first, his comment on the social network led to an increase in bitcoin by $5 thousand, and then his company Tesla announced the purchase of bitcoin in the amount of $1.5 billion, which provoked an increase of another $5,000. Thus, in principle, only Elon Musk is responsible for a fifth of the cost of the "cue ball" at this time. It's scary to imagine what will happen if Musk or other similar businessmen comment on cryptocurrencies every couple of days. However, Musk decided to give bitcoin a break and switched to the Dogecoin cryptocurrency. In the social network Twitter, Musk made a post in which he supports the potential solution of large holders of the Dogecoin. According to Musk, the problem with the token is that it is concentrated in too narrow a circle of owners. After this statement, Dogecoin fell by 19%. Earlier, the same Elon Musk commented on the same cryptocurrency Dogecoin (wrote that it is undervalued) and then followed a powerful growth. Thus, only one owner of Tesla is responsible for four powerful jumps in the cryptocurrency market and this is only in the last 7-10 days. Well, traders can once again personally observe what is happening in the cryptocurrency market and what are the reasons for this. Bitcoin, by the way, this night again rose in price and is already worth almost $50,000 per coin. At the same time, it is still extremely difficult to name at least one fundamental reason why the cryptocurrency has grown 5 times in a few months. And it's not just Bitcoin that's growing! Other cryptocurrencies are also being pulled up, ergo, the entire cryptocurrency market is growing. The more news of this nature from Elon Musk or other major investors and companies we will receive, the more likely it is that cryptocurrencies will continue to grow in price. We continue to insist that sooner or later there will be a collapse. There will not be a scenario in which bitcoin will grow to $100,000 per coin, and then adjust to $80,000 and remain at this level in the medium term. No, when large investors start taking profits on long positions, then the "domino effect" will begin, everyone will immediately rush to sell bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies at the maximum value, which will lead to the collapse of the entire cryptocurrency market, as it was already in 2017. Therefore, we still believe that bitcoin is a great tool to make money, but we need to be prepared for its collapse.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 17, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro failed to take the opportunity to reach the 1.2190-1.2272 range. The excellent European ZEW Economic Sentiment did not even provide support to the euro, which grew from 58.3 to 69.6 while expectations were at 59.2, and the GDP for the fourth quarter showed a decline of -0.6% against the forecasts at -0.7%. But investors were happy with the growth of activity in the manufacturing sector in New York, which showed an increase from 3.5 to 12.1. As a result, the euro lost 23 points in a day.
Today, investors have more serious reasons for strengthening the dollar: retail sales for January are forecast to grow by 1.1%, industrial production is expected to grow by 0.5%.
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The price moves back down below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, while the Marlin indicator also returns to the downward trend zone. Now the price is facing the 1.1870-1.1915 target.
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The price also goes under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, while Marlin has already consolidated in the zone of negative values. We look forward to further weakening of the euro.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 18
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The situation with COVID-19 is stabilizing. There is a strong decline in incidence in both United States and Europe. In fact, the US steadily recorded new cases below 100,000.
Vaccinations are also starting to progress rapidly, but only in the US and Britain.
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EUR/USD is trading downwards. Primarily, this is because of strong economic data from the US.
Open short positions from 1.2080 to 1.2125.
Price will continue to decline if employment data (in the US) also comes out better than expected.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on February 19, 2021
AUD/USD
The support of the balance indicator line has confirmed its impact on the price. After reaching the lower shadow, the price successfully broke through the entire range of 0.7765/83 and closed the day inside it. However, it is now trying to leave it in order to decline. In this case, the price should consolidate below yesterday's low, and move below the balance indicator line. If so, we can expect the downward trend to extend to the target range of 0.7625/41. The Marlin Oscillator is in the area of positive levels, and thus, we should get ready to break through this today.
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In the H4 chart, yesterday's low of 0.7732 is located below the MACD line (blue moving average). This level can be a good pivot point to determine the price's intention to continue its decline. Here, the Marlin Oscillator is in the negative trend zone. It is possible that an attack on the signal level of 0.7732 will be made today, but the development can only be expected next week.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 22, 2021
GBP/USD
The pound was trying to reach the target level of 1.4070 on the reversing Marlin oscillator last Friday and also this morning. The price, especially with the support from the growth of other world currencies, still has the opportunity not only to reach this level, but also to rise above it. But if there is no such support, the price will return to the 1.3950/65 range and, after settling below it, will go further down to the target level of 1.3835.
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The four-hour chart shows that the probability of forming a divergence with the Marlin oscillator still remains, only it will be weaker. The divergence will not be broken if the price rises to the 1.4070 level. To open short positions, you are advised to wait for the price to settle under the range of 1.3950/65.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...f6_source!.jpg
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 23, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro received strong ideological support from the expected growth trends in US government bond yields. The yield on 5-year securities did not grow very high, but it overcame the psychological level of 0.60% and there were forecasts (rather expectations) of growth to 1.0%, 1.5% and even 2.0%. If this goes on, then the euro will have great prospects. The Federal Reserve should somehow intervene in the emerging situation, because with a government debt of 27.896 trillion. dollars, to which another 1.9 trillion will be added. according to the "Biden plan", its maintenance will be difficult. We believe that the US central bank will take control of the yield curve earlier than the markets expect. It is possible that the media are already fulfilling a social order, raising a fuss on this issue
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Now the euro is facing the task of consolidating above the 1.2190 level. In this case, the subsequent correction from the 8th Fibonacci timeline will not be deep, approximately to the MACD indicator line (1.2100), afterwards the price may continue to rise to the upper target of 1.2272. The price is above the balance indicator line, while Marlin moves into the positive trend zone, the probability of growth is 80%.
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The price reversed from the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart, it increases without signs of a reversal.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 24, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro stopped rising on its way to the nearest target of 1.2190, but it is still determined to reach not only this target, but also 1.2272. Drifting under the MACD line, below 1.2105, will return the euro to a downward trend.
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The price rises on the four-hour timescale, while the Marlin oscillator turns up. We are waiting for the price to overcome the first target at 1.2190.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 25, 2021
USD/JPY
The US dollar showed a significant increase against the Japanese yen on Wednesday. Thus, it is now possible not only to reach the target range of 106.50/65 in the near future, but also to break through it, with the aim to rise further towards the target range of 107.35/50.
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The price consolidated above both the balance indicator (red) and MACD lines in the H4 chart. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator is in the upper zone. The upward trend is likely to strengthen after the price managed to break through the February 17 high set at 106.23.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...c1_source!.jpg
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on February 26, 2021
GBP/USD
The technical spike, that the British pound formed on Thursday, completely worked out yesterday - the pair dropped 128 points. The price reached the target range of 1.3950/65 this morning. Falling below the lower border of this range opens the next target at 1.3830 - the low on February 17. A correction is likely from this level, since by this time the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will reach the border with the territory of the downtrend and, most likely, will not overcome it on the first attempt.
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The price settled below both indicator lines on the four-hour chart - balance and MACD, while Marlin is deeply in the negative zone. The trend is completely downward.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 1, 2021
EUR/USD
The euro fell by 99 points last Friday, broke through the support of the MACD line, but the Marlin oscillator only touched the border of the downward trend area and now a correction is taking place.
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The downward momentum is set strong, we are waiting for the price to move to the 1.1870-1.1915 target range. From the specified range, we expect a correction of the order of one figure, afterwards it could fall again (1.1760). The nearest target, however, is 1.2023, but in order to reach it, it is necessary to overcome Friday's low, as shown on the four-hour chart.
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The trend is completely downward on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin signal line is slightly to the upside, showing the current correction.
So, we are waiting for the price to surpass the signal level of 1.2062.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 2, 2021
EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro traded in a range of 74 points, closing the day with a decline and consolidation below the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. The balance line shows the market mood within the trend, the MACD line determines the trend itself. Now the price is approaching the target level of 1.2023, identified at the February 17 low. Getting the price to settle below it opens targets like 1.1915, then 1.1870. The Marlin oscillator is in a downward trend zone.
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The price continues to fall without signs of a reversal on the four-hour chart:
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 3, 2021
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar moved higher yesterday with the support of the Marlin oscillator, which has penetrated the area of the rising trend on the daily chart. But since this is a correctional growth, we do not expect a succeeding significant growth in price. There is an increase in prices on the commodity market and AUD/USD will feel a little better than European currencies, albeit without a pronounced growth.
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The correction continues on the four-hour chart, the growth limit is seen in the area of the MACD line, near the level of 0.7875. After getting the price to settle below the target range of 0.7765/83, we expect it to fall to the range of 0.7625/41 (peak on December 17, 2020).
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...1a_source!.jpg
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 5, 2021
AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar was expectedly supported by the leading currencies. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.69%. At the same time, the Australian dollar hardly lost much (46 points), pausing at the support of the MACD line. And then, it did the main thing – During the Asian trading session, it broke through the support and quickly declined. The Marlin oscillator has forcefully entered the downward trend zone. Thus, the situation has become completely declining.
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On the daily chart, the targets are set at 0.7615, 0.7565, 0.7500, 0.7375. The medium-term target of the AUD/USD pair is located at 0.7170 level, from which there was a formation of complex consolidations last summer and autumn 2020.
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The MACD signal line in the H4 chart has left the consolidation at the zero level below (gray area on the chart), and is going deeper into this negative zone. The situation is fully downward.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 8, 2021
USD/JPY
Last Friday, the USD/JPY pair continued its intensive growth, reaching above the target level of 108.16. Visually, the price will close today with a white candle, but the Marlin oscillator has already reached the overbought zone and is planning a reversal from the upper limit of its own growing channel. This morning came the data on Japan's balance of payments for January, which showed a deterioration in the indicator: 0.647 trillion yen versus December 1.166 trillion and forecasted 1.23 trillion yen. The data, of course, does not contribute to risk appetite (Nikkei 225 adds 0.2% against the background of the Australian S&P/ASX 200 1.20%). But nevertheless, stock indexes are growing and keeping the dollar from a deep correction. It is possible that the correction will not go even under the overcome level of 108.16 (the top of July 1, 2020), so today can be closed with a small black candle. And tomorrow, the growth will continue to the previously defined target of 109.10. From this level, a deeper correction is already likely and the exit of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the growing channel will become false, it will return to it later.
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There are no reversal signs on the four-hour chart, only the Marlin slightly decreases with the last three candles growing, but this is still not a trend and not a signal for a reversal. We are waiting for developments. Today, the main factor is time.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 9, 2021
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro decided to go down from its local price channel. Now the following target levels are ahead: 1.1800 (low of November 23, 2020), 1.1745 (low of November 11), 1.1688-1.1700. The main target is the last one- the 1.1688-1.1700 range, which is referenced by the low on October 15, 2020.
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The price divergence with the oscillator develops on the four-hour scale, but if it is not broken today, then only a nominal correction is expected, to the lower border of the price channel, from which the price left yesterday (1.1880).
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 10, 2021
AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar gained 68 points. And although it did not try to break through the support level of 0.7615, it managed to work out the resistance of the MACD line on the daily time frame. This morning, the price is declining again, so we should still expect it to fall further towards the 0.7615 mark. Meanwhile, commodity markets have outlined a decline, which supports the currency pair. In this case, a prolonged decline can be expected tomorrow, when the ECB announces its monetary policy guidelines. The targets remains at 0.7565 and 0.7500.
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The Marlin Oscillator slightly went above the neutral line in the four-hour chart, but it is going to return along it. Otherwise, the situation will remain unchanged, that is, moving downwards.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 11, 2021
EUR/USD
Another day passed in anticipation of the European Central Bank meeting. Yesterday, the trading range for the euro was 60 points without any attempts at serious action. According to the general median opinion prevailing in the market, the ECB in the face of the European recession should show at least verbal softness, declaring its readiness to use any means of accommodation policy at any time, up to a rate cut. And since investors are already tuned in to such rhetoric, it is already easier to find it even in an essentially neutral speech. Our main scenario assumes that the price would move from the descending price channel of the daily timeframe (1.1874) and advance towards targets like 1.1800, 1.1745.
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On the four-hour chart, the increased exit of the Marlin oscillator into the growth zone is suspicious, but the current significance of the ECB meeting is so great that it can easily change any technical picture. In case the euro sharply falls, Marlin will have a longer downward movement. This is how this indicator will be read, but not now, but it is a fact.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 12, 2021
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen continued to adhere to its target yesterday to exit the declining price channel, that is, above the 109.17 mark, move towards the target level of 110.34, and possibly further rise. If we analyze the pair's growth amid the confusing ECB meeting on Thursday, there is a high probability that the price will reach the specified target level. The Marlin Oscillator signal line is also directed upwards.
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The price in the H4 chart is supported by the balance indicator line. On the other hand, the Marlin is approaching the border within the growth area. Thus, the price is expected at the nested line of the upward price channel in the area of 110.34.
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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on March 15, 2021
GBP/USD Last Thursday and Friday, the pound went above the target level of 1.3950 for a short time and is now preparing to attack the support of the MACD line (1.3800). Success will lead the pound to advance to deeper targets: 1.3630 and 1.3460. The same maneuver with a short-term exit above the neutral level was made by the Marlin oscillator and now it is in the downward trend zone.
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The price is between the MACD line and the 1.3950 target level on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is formally in the growth zone, but it still moves horizontally along the border. A more probable development of the situation will be the price drift under the opening of the week (and under the MACD line on H4) and advance to the first target of 1.3800.
https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userf...5a_source!.jpg
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