Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Looks Outward for Direction Cues as Fed Outlook Firms
An all-but-certain Fed rate path in the near term may see the US Dollar looking outward for direction cues. Ample international event risk offers no shortage of possible drivers.

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Japanese Yen: BoJ Optimistic but Inflation Still Subdued: Taper Not Yet a Topic of Concern
Yen weakness was a pervasive theme across FX markets this week, as the currency dropped every day against the Euroand four out of five days against both the British Pound and the U.S. Dollar.

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Canadian Dollar Forecast: Poor Jobs Data + Weak Oil = Further Slippage
Friday’s news that Canadian employment rose by a mere 3,200 in April, well below both expectations of a 10,000 increase and the previous month’s 19,400 advance, was deeply disappointing.

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British Pound Forecast: BoE ’Super Thursday’ Event, Fed Rheotic to Test GBP/USD Relief Rally
The BoE’s ‘Super Thursday’ event along with another week of Fed rhetoric may shake up the relief rally in GBP/USD amid the deviating paths for monetary policy.

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Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar to Struggle as Commodities Falter
The Australian Dollar would probably be doing a lot better if domestic news were all that mattered. It isn’t, sadly for the bulls. Interest-rate differentials and commodity prices matter too.

Attachment 26988

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: Kiwi Under The RBNZ’s Thumb
After hitting a 10-month low on April 28, the New Zealand Dollar enjoyed a rare but brief fillip this this week, first on a better-than-expected jobs report, then on news that inflation expectations had risen.

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Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Search for Support Post FOMC- All Eyes on France
Gold prices fell for the third consecutive week with the precious metal down more than 3.15% to trade at 1227 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Runs to Resistance ahead of Trade, CPI Reports
The Chinese Yuan extended losses against the U.S. Dollar for the third consecutive week in the offshore market, although it has not yet broken the key resistance level of 6.8980.

Attachment 26993

Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Nosedive to 5-Month Lows Discouraging for OPEC
Crude Oil was a big theme of the reflation trade that favored proof of pending economic growth as commodity prices pushed higher in Q4/Q1.

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Equities Forecast: CAC 40, DAX, S&P 500 - French Election, ’Sell the News’ in the Works?
The election. Will we see a Macron victory as expected or a surprise win by Le Pen? In the likely event we see Macron become the next president of France, a gap higher in the CAC is a reasonable expectation.

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Euro Forecast: Euro May Fall on Soft Inflation, Dovish Draghi Comments
The Euro may decline as soft inflation and dovish comments from ECB President Draghi dim hopes for near-term reduction in the scale of monetary stimulus.

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British Pound Forecast: Expect Choppy, Sideways Trading
The past week was expected to be all about the Government’s legislative program and Brexit, as Theresa May went to Brussels to begin the divorce proceedings.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar May Find Path Of Least Resistance Leads It Down
The Australian Dollar needn’t fall far against the greenback in the coming seven days. However, it looks short of fundamental reasons to gain and is carrying some heavy baggage.

Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Collapses into Bear Market Territory
Crude Oil prices were dealt another blow this week, even with global supplies showing contraction.

Equities Forecast: Major Global Indices Need to Prove Themselves Early This Week
We have a light economic calendar in the week ahead, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some volatility with several major indices at critical junctures.

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US Dollar Forecast: Dollar Downtrend in the Spotlight Ahead of FOMC Minutes, NFP
Dollar weakness continued to flare into the end of Q2, but will a slate of highly-pertinent U.S. drivers finally be able to bring some element of respite to the bearish trend?

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British Pound Forecast: Resistance at 1.30 to Come Under Further Pressure
For the British Pound, last week was dominated by comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

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Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Bulls' Hawkish RBA Bet May Not Pay Out
The Australian Dollar has risen on hopes that the RBA will join its more hawkish developed-market peers in writing ultra-low rates’ obituary. But will it?

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Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Looks to Caixin PMI, Xi's Trip for Further Strength
The Yuan remained in a bullish trend as the USD/CNH failed to break above a key resistance. Looking forward, event risk will be the main focus for the Yuan.

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Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Lower on Shifting Policy Outlook- FOMC Minutes, NFP on Tap
Gold prices look to close at the monthly lows and heading into July trade the focus is on key support just lower. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

Attachment 27513

Crude Oil Forecast: Oil Prices Extend Bullish Sequence as U.S. Crude Output Narrows
The recent recovery in crude oil prices may carry into July the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees a near-term slowdown in energy outputs.

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US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar May Shrug Off Soft Inflation as Yellen Remains Hawkish
The US Dollar may shrug off soft wholesale and retail inflation figures as Fed Chair Janet Yellen uses Congressional testimony to make the case for rate hikes.

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Euro Forecast: Euro Bulls Get Room to Run: But Will They Show Up to Drive the Trend?
Next week brings a light economic docket for European data, and there are no Mario Draghi speeches on the calendar: Presenting an opportune time to substantiate recent themes of Euro strength.

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Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Targets Topside Hurdles Ahead of Fed Chair Yellen Testimony
The Humphrey-Hawkins testimony may fuel the near-term advance in USD/JPY should Chair Janet Yellen endorse a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy.

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Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Looks Trapped By Competing Influences
The Australian Dollar faces economic news from home, China and the US this week, a combination which may - perhaps counterintuitively - mean that it doesn’t get far either way.

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Canadian Dollar Forecast: Now it Would be a Surprise if Rates Were Left Unchanged
There has been plenty of disagreement among analysts over whether the Bank of Canada will increase its overnight rate to 0.75% from 0.5% on July 12

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Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Eyes on New Yuan Loans, Trade Prints
Looking forward, a heavy economic calendar has the Yuan at risk from home.

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Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Plunge Post NFP- Testing Support Ahead of Yellen, CPI
Prices are testing near-term support ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy testimony next week. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter.

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Global Equities Forecast: S&P 500, DAX, FTSE 100 Threatened by Risk Aversion
Threat of global ‘risk-off’ continues to rise as a new week arrives; on the fundamental front we have Yellen testimony as the big event of the week.

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Crude Oil Forecast: Oil Remains Weak, Further Downside Beckons
Despite a short-term rally on falling crude and gasoline inventories, oil continues to be controlled by the bears.

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US Dollar Forecast: Dollar Drives to Ten-Month Lows as U.S. Data Continues to Disappoint
The Fed remains hawkish, but markets seem to care little: As U.S. data continues to print below expectations, the Greenback furthers the 2017 fall that’s driven prices to fresh ten-month lows.

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British Pound Forecast: All Eyes on the Inflation Data
Traders in the British Pound will be focused on Tuesday’s UK inflation data for June in the week ahead.

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Japanese Yen Forecast: Yen Plunge May Resume as the Bank of Japan Asserts Dovish Stance
The Japanese Yen may fall further after a brief pause last week as the Bank of Japan firmly asserts its dovish stance and threatens markets with the prospect of greater easing.

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Australian Dollar Forecast:More Gains May Be Too Much to Ask
The Australian Dollar enjoyed something of a banner week last week thanks to a variety of supportive factors. However, it can’t rely on a rerun even if it doesn’t fall far.

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Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Post-BoC Weakness to Persist as Bearish Momentum Gathers Pace
The material shift in USD/CAD behavior may continue to unfold over the near-term as the Bank of Canada (BoC) alters the outlook for monetary policy.

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Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Looks to China's Q2 GDP, US-China Economic Talks
Event risks will be top drivers for the Yuan rate in the coming week. China’s growth in the second quarter as well as US-China bilateral negotiations could largely impact the outlook of the economy.

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Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Rebound From Key Support As Yellen Softens Rate Expectations
Prices rebounded off key support this week with the rally now eyeing initial resistance targets. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter next week.

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Global Equities Forecast: S&P 500 Earnings, Risk Trend-Driven; DAX, Nikkei Face ECB, BoJ
S&P 500 trades into uncharted territory, will rely on risk sentiment and earnings releases; DAX could move on ECB surprise language, while Nikkei unlikely to be impacted by BoJ.

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Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Rises Into 55-DMA On 5% Weekly Gain, Production Rises
Crude Oil is ending the week close to the 55-DMA thanks in part to a weak USD and the DoE showing the largest inventory draw since September.

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Euro Forecast:Can the Euro Continue to Defy a Dovish ECB and Soft Data Flow?
The Euro faces a telltale period ahead as the bulls’ defiance of a dovish ECB is tested with the passage of top-tier economic data and official commentary.

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Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Eyes June-Low Ahead of FOMC Meeting, 2Q U.S. GDP Report
The Japanese Yen may continue to appreciate against its U.S. counterpart next week should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) soften its hawkish outlook for monetary policy.

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New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Surges to Fresh Highs But Caution Advised
NZD/USD broke to upside this week and returned to levels last seen in September 2016 on Fin Min comments.

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Chinese Yuan Forecast: To Retrace or to Advance, That is a Question around the Yuan
Looking forward, Chinese regulators’ guidance, July FOMC decision, as well as U.S. data prints are more likely to add mixed moves into the pair; both retracement and breakout are possible for the pair next week.

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Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Extend Gains as USD Plunges- All Eyes on FOMC
Prices posted the largest weekly rally since May with the advance now eyeing slope resistance. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter next week.

Attachment 27847

Global Equities Forecast: Fed Rattle or Help the S&P 500?; DAX in Danger, Nikkei Coiling

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US Dollar Forecast: Dollar Descent Continues as U.S. Markets Stare Down NFP, PCE
The USD Pain Trade has continued for another week as the Fed laid the groundwork to begin Quantitative Tightening. Key inflation and employment prints on the docket for next week will likely keep the Greenback on the move.

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British Pound Forecast: Trending Up Against USD, Sideways Against EUR
The coming week will be dominated by a meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, where all UK monetary settings will likely be left unchanged.

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Australian Dollar Forecast:Hawkish RBA to Fuel Change in AUD/USD Behavior
Fresh remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may fuel the shift in AUD/USD behavior should the central bank endorse a hawkish outlook for monetary policy.

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Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan May Suspend Rally, Eyes on PMI
In order to advance further, the Chinese Yuan would need stimulation. Yet, Chinese PMI gauges are less likely to provide sufficient support.

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Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Continue to Shine on Dollar Decline- Resistance Ahead
Gold prices posted the largest weekly rally since May with the advance now eyeing slope resistance. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter next week.

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Crude Oil Forecast: WTI And Brent Crude Oil Pivots on OPEC Actions to Best Week of 2017
Crude Oil had everything going in its favor this week, thanks to OPEC, a weak USD, and a larger than anticipated supply draw to rise nearly 7% on the week.

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US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar May Extend Rebound as CPI Boosts Rate Hike Chances
The US Dollar may find fuel for a sustained recovery if CPI data points to firming inflation, boosting the probability of another Fed rate hike before year-end.

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British Pound Forecast: British Pound Falls Down After a Reiteration of BoE Dovishness
The doves remain active at the Bank of England, even with inflation expected to remain elevated well-beyond two percent as the squeeze on the British consumer continues.

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Australian Dollar Forecast:Too Early to Call an End to Upward Trend
The Australian Dollar has been climbing steadily against its US counterpart since early May and, despite some recent weakness, it is too early to say the move upwards is over.

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New Zealand Dollar Forecast:NZD/USD Risks Near-Term Correction on RBNZ Verbal Intervention
NZD/USD may continue to pullback from the 2017-high (0.7558) should the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) toughen the verbal intervention on the local currency.

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Equities Forecast: S&P 500 Holding Strong, DAX Finding Support on Euro Weakness
Next week is a fairly uneventful week on the data-front, general risk trends to move markets in summer trading environment; S&P 500 hanging tough near highs, DAX could benefit from euro selling.

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Gold Forecast: Gold Prices Snap Three Week Winning Streak as Strong NFPs Fuel USD
Gold snapped a three week winning streak with price reversing sharply on strong US NFPs on Friday. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter next week.

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Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Price Fails to Hold Momentum From Best Week of 2017
Crude Oil fell back to earth this week, but there remain positive developments such as record gasoline demand and falling supplies.

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US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Torn Between Geopolitical Fears, Fed Policy Bets
The US Dollar is torn between the influence of Fed policy speculation and geopolitical risk as key economic news prints against a backdrop of fiery rhetoric from the US and North Korea.

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British Pound Forecast: Starting to Behave Like a 'Risk-On' Currency
The performance of the British Pound over the past week suggests it is trading like a currency investors will shun if the US spat with North Korea continues to worsen.

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Japanese Yen Forecast: Risk Aversion Envelopes the Yen as Geopolitical Risk Flares
The Japanese Yen put in a move of strength as tensions increased between the U.S. and North Korea. But there are setups on both sides to work with either a continuation or a reversal of risk aversion in JPY.

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Australian Dollar Forecast:Australian Dollar Caught Between Investor Appetite, RBA
The Australian Dollar looks a little stuck between a central bank that doesn’t want to see more gains and an investment community that would probably like to buy.

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New Zealand Dollar Forecast:NZD Sits in Oversold Territory And May Remain There Longer
The recent jawboning by RBNZ assistant governor John McDermott sent the Kiwi lower despite the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

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Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Rebound to Unravel on Less-Hawkish FOMC Minutes
USD/CAD may exhibit a more bearish behavior in the week ahead should key developments coming out of the U.S. economy dampen bets for higher interest rates.

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Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Eyes on PBOC's Guidance, Private Investment
The primary driver to the Yuan rate has been the PBOC’s guidance over the past week. With the recently added counter-cyclical factor, the reference rate seems to show greater influence to markets.

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Equities Forecast: S&P 500, DAX, and FTSE 100 Skating on Thin Ice

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US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Rebound in the Balance as All Eyes Turn to Jackson Hole
The impressive resilience of the US Dollar will be tested as markets look for stimulus withdrawal clues at the Fed’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

British Pound Forecast: Another Difficult Week Coming Up
August has been a difficult month so far for the British Pound and its weakness looks set to continue in the week ahead.

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Japanese Yen Forecast: Yen Remains Strong as Risk Aversion Trumps GDP: Inflation on Deck
While second quarter GDP came-in quite a bit stronger than expected, markets appeared to care little as the larger overall theme of risk aversion continued to garner attention.

Australian Dollar Forecast: Becalmed Australian Dollar May Need Left-Field Impetus
The Australian Dollar may struggle for direction this week as neither the domestic nor the international economic news schedules have very much to offer investors.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD Boosted by Risk-on Sentiment But Weakness Remains
The New Zealand dollar benefitted from a bout of risk-on sentiment this week while mixed producer price data was largely ignored. But Kiwi weakness still remains the favored theme.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD to Eye 2017-Low on Dovish Fed as Focus Shifts to Jackson Hole
Headlines coming out of the Fed Economic Symposium may push USD/CAD back towards the August-low amid narrow bets for another 2017 rate-hike.

Chinese Yuan Forecast: Yuan Torn Between Liquidity Shortage, Growth Concerns
China’s monetary policy is back to spotlight this week. To curb risks or to maintain the growth, that is a question.

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Equities Forecast: S&P 500, Global Markets to Start Week on Edge

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